Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur
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Today’s secondary featured game is the English Premier League game between league leaders Manchester City and title hopefuls Tottenham Hotspur.
Maybe it’s just me but this game just screams “goals!”. City have gone off the boil lately as they struggle to juggle absentees and a packed fixture list. Their quality is still showing through where it’s allowed to, however. Silva is still pulling the strings and the return of Balotelli gives them a strong option in attack so you have to fancy City to score goals here as that combination has yielded innumerate City goals this season. However, no Yaya Toure leaves them short of leadership in midfield and no Kompany at the back leaves them with an inept defence so the home win doesn’t interest me here from a value perspective.
Could Spurs spring a surprise? If they were able to field Adebayor then maybe. They’ve got such pacey widemen that City could have a very hard game here. It’ll be interesting to see whether Redknapp plays Bale through the middle or down the flank but either way, City will struggle. Spurs will have to replace Adebayor with Defoe but that’s not necessarily a bad thing as Adebayor was perhaps tiring and Defoe is a very good and experienced striker. Indeed, Defoe may be up against inexperienced and a rather nervy Savic so maybe this is Defoe’s time to shine. Either way, with Modric and van der Vaart in support, Spurs have the firepower to trouble City here.
I’m not even going to look at the 1×2 market here. City really should edge it at home but there’s too many “ifs” and “buts” here for my liking. However, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 really appeals to me as both sides need the points and City are very short of quality in defence today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Alki Larnaca vs AEL Limassol – away win at evens.
Cyprus hasn’t been too kind to me lately but I like this one today. There’s not as big a quality gap between these two sides as statistics may suggest but AEL are the better side and it should show by full-time. Alki’s home form this season is deceptively good whereas their actual quality level isn’t really that good. They’re an enthusiastic bunch but their defending leaves a lot to be desired. They should find it hard to score against watertight AEL Limassol and the onus should be on the visitors to win this one. Losing 0-3 in their last game against Omonia Nicosia was harsh on AEL Limassol but that’s what clinical finishing does and they know it better than most. After all, taking their chances is what has propelled AEL into the place that they’re in right now in Division 1. They’re solid at the back, very hard to break through, and usually just need a goal to win. I fancy them to edge this one with their usual 0-1 scoreline as long as the defeat against Omonia hasn’t hurt them too much because Alki don’t really have the quality to harm AEL here.
Verdict: AEL Limassol to win at evens.
Apollon Limassol vs Olympiakos Nicosia – lay Apollon Limassol at 7/5.
As usual, the bookies are overpricing Apollon Limassol! They’re not the side that they were a couple of years ago. A crippling financial position and the sale of key players has really hurt Apollon. It was bad enough to begin with because they’re very much a side that only plays well with confidence but without big players to drag them out of tough times, those tough times have tended to last longer when they’re there and they’ve also tended to arrive more often. Apollon still have some decent players but they play a very unconvincing brand of football and this is the perfect game for their uninspired displays to catch up with them. Olympiakos Nicosia may be in a similar situation financially and have also sold key players (Gaiado being the most recent one to Beroe in Bulgaria) but the difference between these two sides is that Olympiakos Nicosia have a great deal of spirit and fight, just as they’ve demonstrated in their last two games, most notably against AEK Larnaca. Both clubs have their respective absentees for this one and I think we’ll see plenty of goals but for me there’s value in laying overrated Apollon at 7/5.
Verdict: Lay Apollon Limassol at 7/5.
Hamburger SV vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – away win at 5/6.
I’ve not heard any team news regarding this game so approach with caution.
Despite Hamburg have been hard to beat under their new boss but they’re not prolific and thus I think Dortmund can take advantage of them here. The break should have been very welcome for Dortmund as pressure was mounting on their relatively thin squad and it showed, too. However, Bayern losing at Gladbach on friday should give Dortmund an even bigger boost ahead of this trip to Hamburg and that coupled with Dortmund’s ability to attack and score goals should ultimately lead us to an away win. I expect a scrappy game where the game should be won by the individual and given that Dortmund have far more match-winners than Hamburg do, I think that an inspired Dortmund side can claim a valuable three points here today.
Verdict: Bv09 Borussia Dortmund to win at 5/6.
SL Benfica vs Gil Vicente – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
I’m not sure I need to preview this one, really! Cardozo, Rodrigo, and Aimar are doubts but so what? Benfica not winning by at least two goals at home is surprising on the average day in the Liga Sagres but against a newly-promoted side it should be a given. The very least this one should be is a “push” but Benfica are more than good enough to run riot here.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win with a -2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Ivory Coast, Feyenoord Rotterdam, PSV Eindhoven, SL Benfica, Porto, Sporting Braga.
Recommended bets:
AEL Limassol, PSV Eindhoven, and Porto at around 2/1.
SL Benfica -2 AH, Sporting Braga, and Feyenoord Rotterdam at around 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Ivory Coast vs Sudan (8) 2-0
Burkina Faso vs Angola (6) 2-1
International Friendly:
Lebanon vs Iraq (6) 0-1
Trinidad & Tobago vs Finland (5) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Gold Coast United (7) 1-0
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Westerlo vs Standard de Liege (7) 1-2
Cypriot Division 1:
Nea Salamis vs Anagennisi Deryneia (6) 2-1
Alki Larnaca vs AEL Limassol (7) 0-1
Apollon Limassol vs Olympiakos Nicosia (4) 1-1
English Premier League:
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (4) 2-2
Arsenal vs Manchester United (6) 0-1
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (7) 0-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 (6) 2-1
Greek Super League:
Doxa Dramas vs Aris Salonika (7) under 2.5 goals
Panaitolikos vs Kerkyra (7) 2-0
Xanthi vs Olympiakos Piraeus (7) 1-2
Levadiakos vs OFI Crete (5) 1-0
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos (4) 1-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Rishon Lezion (7) 2-0
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Parma (6) 1-0
Cagliari vs Fiorentina (5) 1-1
Lecce vs Chievo Verona (6) 2-1
Novara vs AC Milan (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Palermo vs Genoa (7) 1-0
Siena vs SSC Napoli (6) 0-1
Udinese vs Catania (7) 1-0
Internazionale vs Lazio (7) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Tigres UANL (4) 1-1
Puebla vs Atlante (7) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
VVV Venlo vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) over 2.5 goals
Groningen vs Heracles Almelo (7) 2-0
FC Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven (8) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Feirense (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Pacos de Ferreira vs Vitoria Setubal (5) 0-0
Sporting Braga vs Rio Ave (8) 2-1
Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes (8) 2-0
SL Benfica vs Gil Vicente (9) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna vs Valencia CF (5) 1-2
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Mallorca (6) 0-0
Malaga vs Barcelona (7) 0-1
Levante vs Real Zaragoza (7) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cordoba vs Celta de Vigo (6)
Barcelona II vs Deportivo Xerez (4)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Genclerbirligi (7) 1-2
Eskisehirspor vs Galatasaray (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!