Manchester United vs Besiktas
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Manchester United and Besiktas. Hosts Manchester United enter this game with the knowledge that they’ve already qualified for the knockout stage of the competition whereas visitors Besiktas know that they’re out of the competition already with a very slim chance of achieving a UEFA Europa League place if they manage a miraculous win here tonight.
Manchester United enter this game on the back of a highly polished 3-0 win against Everton at weekend, which was arguably their best performance of the season so far. When Manchester United enter the phase where they win games so convincingly, it’s generally the time to get out of the road or face being swept away. Manchester United have an away trip to managerless Portsmouth on saturday afternoon but there’s no particular concern regarding that trip so I can’t see Manchester United resting many players for this game tonight as I’m sure Sir Alex Ferguson would like to affirm the winning of this group before travelling to Germany in early December to face VFL Wolfsburg.
Visitors Besiktas have had a dismal campaign in Europe, losing three out of their four Champions League games and drawing the other game, scoring just one goal in the process. Ironically, their domestic form has improved drastically of late with seven consecutive Super Lig wins, conceding just one goal on this miraculous run, a run which saw them overcome rivals Fenerbahce 3-0 last match. There’s never been any doubt in my mind that Besiktas are a capable side but they’re simply been unlucky with injuries, something which has yet again affected their squad for this game as they’re missing Holosko, Simsek, Ankan, and Nobre through injury, as well as Sivok through suspension. There are some big losses here so Besiktas’ already slim chances are fading even faster!
I don’t need to tell you all that Manchester United are a class above Besiktas – that’s simply factual. I’m fairly confident that Ferguson will field a few second string players for this game but frankly a Besiktas side that cannot defend and don’t play well on the road shouldn’t have a chance against any Manchester United side at Old Trafford – it’s as simple as that. My biggest concern is that Michael “the crock” Owen will start in attack, which will hinder Manchester United’s goalscoring somewhat. However, Manchester United have scored at least two goals in both of their group stage games at home so far so it’s reasonable to expect them to do the same again tonight against lesser opponents than those they’ve already faced.
Verdict: Manchester United to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at evens.
Wendesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
CSKA Moscow vs VFL Wolfsburg – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Hosts CSKA Moscow have averaged scoring two goals per game since Leonid Slutski has taken over, including an action-packed 3-2 victory against bitter rivals Spartak Moscow last match, a result which handed the title to Rubin Kazan with one game remaining. Whereas CSKA have little compassion for Rubin Kazan, they do dislike Spartak Moscow immensely so the trophy being away from them is something that they’ll no doubt enjoy immensely. CSKA have been playing good attacking football and know that they need to win this game tonight to have any chance of qualifying for the knockout stages of this competition so they’ve no option but to attack. Unfortunately, the Russian outfit are missing Semberas through suspension, which is a big loss defensively. The missing Gonzalez and Guilherme will limit their attacking options but not massively due to the way that the team is performing currently.
Visitors Wolfsburg enter this game after a surprising 3-2 home defeat against Nurnberg, a game which perfectly illustrates how different Wolfsburg sides can be. However, one thing that it does emphasise is that Wolfsburg score lots of goals whatever their performance is like! They’ve scored ten goals in their last four games in all competitions with their biggest problem being defence as they’ve conceded seven goals during that run too. Wolfsburg could do with winning this game although avoiding defeat would probably seem them qualify for the knockout stages ultimately anyway.
Overall, what we have here is two sides that are currently in a very rich vein of goalscoring form and both are prone to conceding goals too. CSKA need to win this game and Wolfsburg would like to win it too so taking over 2.5 goals seems a logical and valuable bet for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Bayern Munich vs Maccabi Haifa – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Bayern Munich simply haven’t been making the grade lately, which is no doubt frustrating for their fans, but it’s also been rather profitable for those like myself who have opposed them in recent times i.e. laying them against Schalke 04 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayern’s big problem is a lack of goals scored. They’ve managed to score just two goals in their last four games in all competitions, which naturally isn’t good enough. They may have won 3-0 in Israel in the reversal of this fixture at the start of the group stage but this fixture has a different atmosphere and meaning to it. Bayern are stumbling towards this game and are looking anything but reliable in regards to winning this game
Unfortunately for Bayern Munich, they’re facing a side that they’d probably not wish to face at the moment – Maccabi Haifa. Why’s that, you ask? Well, Maccabi Haifa are a side that have basically won the Champions League by getting to this stage. Every game they play in the group stages is about pride and I personally feel that they’ve achieved that with only Bayern having scored three goals against them in a game out of the four that they’ve played. Maccabi Haifa will come here to park the bus in front of the goal and when you’re misfiring as a team, this type of encounter tends to be rather difficult and wearisome! Maccabi Haifa have already kept two under 2.5 goals scorelines against Juventus in Israel and Italy respectively; I’m not seeing any particular reason why that should change for this game!
Maccabi Haifa are yet to score a goal in the group stages, which is something I’m banking on here tonight. I think Bayern will win the game but certainly not in a convincing fashion unless they get off to a flying start with an early goal or two.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Real Madrid vs FC Zurich – home win with -2.75 handicap at 10/11, over 3.5 goals at 4/5.
Initially, I made a very similar bet to this for the game in Switzerland and I’ve seen little to sway me that this game will be any different. Both Real Madrid and FC Zurich play the same style of football but obviously at very different levels. Real Madrid have had problems breaking sides down and scoring a lot of goals in the process ever since Cristiano Ronaldo picked up his injury. However, he’s back in the squad tonight, which is sure to buoy the squad ahead of the big Spain derby at weekend against Barcelona. Real Madrid will want to put on a show and they couldn’t have picked a better opponent as FC Zurich simply cannot defend for shit, simply. FC Zurich do tend to score a lot of goals so between them I think you’re going to see over 3.5 goals at 4/5. However, my main call for this game is for Real Madrid to break the -2.75 goal handicap at 10/11 against a defensively inept FC Zurich as I expect them to hit form again with Ronaldo back with them tonight.
Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -2.75 goal handicap at 10/11, over 3.5 goals at 4/5.
AC Milan vs Olympique de Marseille – lay AC Milan at 5/6.
This is a bold call but a potentially valuable one. AC Milan won the reversal of this fixture in France at the start of their group stages but were remarkably fortunate to do so, in my humble opinion. A couple of classy finishes from one of the most lethal strikers that European football has ever known – Filippo Inzaghi – did all the damage in their 2-1 win. However, despite some good results since that game, AC Milan are still failing to convince me. Maybe I have some secret agenda against them that I don’t know about but their performances have been poor. Take their win against Cagliari at weekend, for instance. AC Milan won the game, so fair play to them. However, to say that they deserved it would be a lie and to deny a Cagliari side that scored three goals at the San Siro is verging on criminal, frankly! A side with plenty of pluck and ability tends to cause AC Milan an awful lot of problems and visitors Olympique de Marseille certainly have both of those credentials.
Olympique de Marseille enter this game with good momentum and with a strong goalscoring record of late. Marseille have enjoyed a frantic and exciting 5-5 draw at Olympique Lyonnais in the league before annihlating Switzerland’s FC Zurich 6-1 in the Champions League and then overcoming Paris Saint-Germain in “le clasico”. All of the above leaves the visitors today with good morale ahead of this important game and their ability to put the ball in the net will bother an ageing and unreliable AC Milan defence that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in this competition yet this season. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe that Marseille won’t score in this game but I find it hard to believe that AC Milan will score more than their French opponents given the sharp contrast in footballing styles.
With AC Milan yet to win at home in the Champions League and putting in some unconvincing displays to boot, I feel there’s potentially a good level of value in laying AC Milan tonight. Both sides need a result here so it should be a good game to watch too. As a side-note – it may be worth taking Niang to score at any time with odds of 13/5 as he particularly caused problems when playing in France and is always a handful with his lightning pace and upper-body strength, two things that AC Milan really hate to defend against…
Verdict: Lay AC Milan at 5/6.
Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk – home win at 6/5.
This north Poland derby sees lowly Arka Gdynia entertain bitter rivals Lechia Gdansk in a game that both sides would not only love to win but a game that both of them could really do with winning from a form perspective. Arka Gdynia have won two games out of their last five but with just three wins out of fourteen games this season, Arka are understandably a little concerned with their Ekstraklasa placing and are keen to make amends. Arka have only lost one of their last five games, which will no doubt please them as it is a step towards obtaining some much-needed form. The fact that Arka have scored six goals in their last five Ekstraklasa games will also assist their confidence ahead of this encounter. Unfortunately, Arka are missing important midfielder Karwan through injury and promising defender Wilczynski is a doubt for this game. Whereas both players would be a loss for Arka, they’re still in decent shape ahead of this game overall.
Visitors Lechia Gdansk travel to this game from their training practice at the local hospital as that’s where the majority of their players are currently based given their crazy number of injured players at the moment! Lechia are missing Kawa, Bajic, Mysona, Bak, and Kasperkiewicz for this game, just to name a few! Mysona is their biggest loss from this listing but a small squad stretched to such levels is bound to suffer hence Lechia’s recent poor form with just one win in their last five games. Lechia have only scored three goals in their last five Ekstraklasa games, half of what Arka Gdynia have scored, whilst conceding four goals. Lechia are really starting to look stretched, however, and this could be the final straw that breaks the donkey’s back, so to speak!
There’s not much difference between these two sides quality-wise with both employing similar styles of football and generally gaining similar results. However, with Arka having lost their last three games against Lechia, they’ll have that extra edge with motivation as well as their home advanage, which should prove useful here although there’s almost a guarantee of crowd trouble which is why the number of police present at this game will almost double the number of away fans at the game! Lechia’s injury problems are too big for them to deal with, in my opinion, so I expect a home win to occur here tonight although under 2.5 goals is virtually a given for this game!
Verdict: Arka Gdynia victory at 6/5.
Hull City vs Everton – away win at 11/10.
Hull City may have taken a 3-3 draw from their home game against West Ham United lately but I’ll level with you; I’ve absolutely no idea how they did. The penalty they got was never a penalty and they were simply extremely fortunate to come up against a West Ham United side that appeared happy to gift them chances as well as missing a host of their own chances. The fact is that Hull City are not good enough to be in this division anymore and their footballing displays are proving this on every level. No side in the Premier League has conceded more goals than Hull City this season as they average over two goals per game conceded. Hull have won just once in their last five games, losing twice along the way and generally look likely to maintain their losses rather than their wins.
Visitors Everton are still ravaged by injury but have been playing quite well lately. Despite their ravaging at Manchester United at weekend, Everton are still playing decent football and they have a striker in Louis Saha that looks like scoring each time he has the ball. Whatever squad is fielded should be a class above Hull City, to be frank, because Everton are that much better than Hull City in every sense of the word. Everton’s recent form statistics aren’t great but they don’t always tell the full story. I completely believe that if Everton fail to win this game then they’ll have real problems this season because Hull’s defence is so leaky that it’s virtually impossible for a drunken team to not score in this game so how a team of professional footballers wouldn’t be able to is frankly beyond me.
Verdict: Everton to win at 11/10.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
CSKA Moscow vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Juventus (6) 0-0
Bayern Munich vs Maccabi Haifa (7) 2-0
Manchester United vs Besiktas (8) -1.75 handicap
Real Madrid vs FC Zurich (9) -1.75 handicap, over 3.5 goals, both sides to score
AC Milan vs Olympique de Marseille (5) 1-1
Porto vs Chelsea (6) 1-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Atletico Madrid (6) 1-1
Copa Nissan Sudamericana:
Liga de Quito vs Fluminense (8) 2-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Colon de Santa Fe (8) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wiener Neustadt vs LASK Linz (6) over 3.5 goals
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz (8) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia vs Litex Lovech (5) 1-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Real Cartagena vs Deportivo Pereira (6) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (8) 2-0
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (6) 2-1
Atletico Huila vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Blackburn Rovers (7) 2-1
Hull City vs Everton (7) 0-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk (4) 2-1, draw no bet, at least one red card in this game.
Uruguayan Primera Division:
River Plate Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (5) 2-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Zamora vs Deportivo Anzoategui (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!