Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
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Is today the day of the underdog? It smells like it to me! Too many short favourites with so many games that don’t need to be won so be very careful today.
My featured game today is the Carling Cup game at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Crystal Palace.
Sir Alex Ferguson is not taking this game seriously. Why should he? It’s a horribly unnecessary competition that nobody cares about. This is a place where the youngsters like Macheda, Morrison, Pogba, Fryers etc. can impress and to be fair, quite a number of them do. However, we’re still mixing a United “B” team with a United “youngsters” team and the cohesion always takes a backseat when that happens.
As an avid Manhester United fan, I do watch all the League Cup games through loyalty more than love for the football because I have to be honest here – these games are never good ones! Don’t get me wrong – I loved that our mixed bag of players stuffed bitter rivals Leeds United 0-3 away in the tournament this season but let’s face it – for as clinical as United were, Leeds were absolutely terrible. United were efficient in their 0-3 win at Aldershot but again, not overly impressive. I can’t complain, of course – a 0-3 win without being impressive is impressive in itself, ironically enough! However, what I am trying to say is that United rarely dominate these games and often make silly errors at the back due to the mix of players that don’t know each other too well. Take a look back through United’s history in this competition – United almost always concede whether at home or away and they usually deserve to concede in this competition, too – they’re not just freak goals. United are susceptible enough at the back to concede in games like these so why not again tonight?
It all depends on the composure of Palace, I suppose. I’m not a huge fan of theirs as I don’t rate them as a particularly good side but they’re in a strangely respectable vein of form right now with just two losses in their past eleven games. Amusingly enough, Palace haven’t scored for five consecutive games ahead of this encounter so some of you will be scratching your heads at this one, I am quite sure!
However, Palace do have the players to trouble United, not least their talismanic attacker Ambrose. From long range or as a dribbler, Ambrose is a threatening attacker and he makes things happen for tonight’s visitors. There are some good players in this team and we all know how much sides pick their game up when they face big opposition and it doesn’t get much bigger than Manchester United.
I think there’s enough pace in the Palace ranks to trouble United tonight. As long as their composure holds, they should at least score here and may even cause a surprise. I’ll be perfectly happy if that doesn’t happen, of course, but I certainly won’t rule it out because this game simply doesn’t matter to United. United will rest players here so where will the finishing come from? I’d be amazed to see Rooney or Hernandez in this game and yet both Welbeck and Owen are out injured. I love Berbatov but he’s a creator, not a goalscorer (in general). A sneaky 1-1 is not out of the question, in my view. However, I’ll ignore the 1×2 market as a United mauling is not impossible either – it just depends what kind of side is named and how determined they are. However, having watched United in this competition for years, I can’t help but feel that 5/6 on both sides scoring is a bit of a steal here – if Palace show up.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Malmo FF vs AZ Alkmaar – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Risky? Sure. Are AZ worth nearly 1/2 to win this game though? No. I like AZ an awful lot but as I’ve said time and time again – they’re a home side. They’re not a good away side! They were poor in Austria against Austria Vienna, drawing 2-2. In the Eredivisie, they’ve shipped goals in most of their games this season and although this side unquestionably has talent, it seems much less obvious when they play away from home. Their displays lately have been more workmanlike than outstanding too, which helps my bet as I don’t think AZ will win it by many, if indeed any. Qualification-wise, AZ need three points to guarantee a place in the next round although realistically speaking, we have to expect Metalist to avoid defeat against Austria Vienna in Ukraine which should mean that AZ progress whatever happens. Malmo are already out of the tournament and with the Allsvenskan having ended some time ago, they’ve not played a competitive game for some time now, which does concern me, I admit. However, they’re a solid side and can cause problems, especially at home. The pressure is off and this side can play good football when they’re allowed to. The Dutch visitors are the better team, yes, but the odds on them winning here are way too short for my liking. For me, taking Malmo to win this one with a +1 Asian Handicap shouldn’t lose as if AZ do win the game then I don’t expect it to be annihlation.
Verdict: Malmo FF to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Doxa Dramas – away win with +1.5 handicap at 6/5.
I like Olympiakos under Valverde a lot but they’ve been really poor lately, barely threatening the goal of their opponents in their last two Super League games. They’ve turned their focus to the UEFA Champions League and understandably so, really. There are no doubts in my mind whatsoever that Olympiakos are the best side in Greece right now but that being true and them playing like the best side can be very different things. Olympiakos are more than good enough to win this game and they absolutely should, to be realistic, but will they? Doxa Dramas are still new to this division and nobody knows much about them. I mean, how could they? The Greek FA randomly add and remove Super League sides at will so Doxa have only played two games this season. There aren’t many games that will motivate the players more than a game against a heavyweight of Greek football, though, so I expect a lot of hard work from the visitiors. Additionally, Olympiakos have a lot of injuries ahead of this game with the likes of Orbaiz, Mellberg, and Makoun absent here, not to menton the big question marks over veteran playmaker Ibagaza. Midfield is the dominant area of Olympiakos and it looks a lot weaker than normal tonight. Confidence can’t be high after their recent displays and no Mellberg at the back means that they lose their organisation somewhat. I won’t rule out the visitors scoring here and maybe making life hard for their superior hosts. There’s risk involved, of course, but for me, giving the visitors a +1.5 goal head start at 6/5 is a mighty tasty bet today!
Verdict: Doxa Dramas to win with a +1.5 handicap at 6/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Rubin Kazan’ vs Shamrock Rovers (8) 2-0
Malmo FF vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 1-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Austria Vienna (6) 1-0
Maribor vs Club Brugge (5) 2-2
Sporting Braga vs Birmingham City (7) 1-0
Stade Rennais vs Udinese (5) 1-1
Celtic vs Atletico Madrid (6) 2-2
Tottenham Hotspur vs PAOK Salonika (7) 1-0
Standard de Liege vs Hannover 96 (6) 1-1
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Copenhagen (6) 1-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (5) 2-2
Legia Warsaw vs PSV Eindhoven (4) 1-1
Copa Sudamericana:
Universidad de Chile vs Vasco da Gama (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Independiente vs Imbabura (7) 2-1
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 0-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Manta (7) 2-1
LDU Loja vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 1-1
Deportivo Quito vs El Nacional Quito (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
English League Cup:
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace (5) 2-1
Greek Super League:
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Doxa Dramas (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Santos Laguna (5) 1-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs General Caballero (5) 2-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Guarani Asuncion (7) 0-1
Cerro Porteno vs 3 de Febrero (7) 2-0
Sol de America vs Libertad Asuncion (7) 1-2
Independiente FBC vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 0-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Bellinzona (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!