Manchester United vs Schalke 04
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter in England between Manchester United and Schalke 04. Tonight’s hosts eased to a 0-2 win in Germany in the first leg of this tie and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn’t surprise me.
Atypically, I’d avoid games like this as the home side doesn’t need to win. However, I’ve seldom seen such a poor side in the semi-finals as Schalke 04 and I simply have to try and take advantage of that tonight. For those of you who didn’t see the reversal of this fixture in Germany – in was literally like Fort Alamo. It rapidly became apparent that Manchester United were facing Manuel Neuer in the Schalke 04 goal by himself and had it not been for a scintillating display from the German goalkeeper, a scoreline of 0-7 would not have been flattering. Schalke 04’s defence is incredibly vulnerable, as they’ve demonstrated numerous times in the tournament thus far. What has bailed them out so far is scoring goals but they simply didn’t pose a threat to United in Germany as they were totally outclassed, barely managing to fashion one or two presentable chances in the whole game. The fact is that United were in complete control of the game from start to finish and you have to expect more of the same today.
Normally, it’d be fair to attribute a display such as Schalke 04’s to nerves or a bad day at the office but they’re genuinely as susceptible as indicated in Germany in the first leg but on a much more regular basis in this competition, showing just how out of their depth they truly are. You can count the number of good Schalke 04 players on one hand and although they’ve got a very hard-working side, it doesn’t count for much at this stage of arguably the world’s biggest club tournament.
Manchester United have a largely full squad to choose from tonight, with the exception of Rooney, although after the win in Germany, it was pretty much guaranteed Rooney wouldn’t play in this game whether he actually is “injured” or not, especially with the big showdown with Chelsea looming large at weekend. Instead, Bulgarian striker Berbatov is likely to step into his boots tonight to give the German defence yet another problem to deal with and with a strong midfield behind him (alongside Hernandez, most likely), we have the recipe for plenty of goals here. If Schalke 04 believe they can go through then they’ll attack here and try to score goals, which leaves them open to counter-attacks and they’ll undoubtedly concede goals because taking their chances is something that United do very well. However, if Schalke 04 try to keep the scoreline respectable, I still think that they’ll concede goals here because they’re not composed enough or good enough at the back to keep United out tonight.
Bluntly, I’m expecting a dominant home win here. All that stands in front of United achieving that is the magnificent Manuel Neuer. If he’s in-form then a 0-0 here is possible but realistically speaking, you have to expect United to score at least once or twice here, just as they did in Germany. I expect there to be even more chances here given that Schalke 04 really should be attacking in this game and therefore I think the -1.5 handicap for the vastly superior team is generously priced at 7/5, irrespective of whether they need to beat the handicap or not.
Verdict: Manchester United to win with a -1.5 handicap at 7/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Melbourne Victory vs Gamba Osaka – away win at evens.
I can only see a long and hard game for the Victory today against one of the Asian Champions League’s better teams, unfortunately. Australian sides are improving more and more each year and as one of the bigger sides from Australia, it’s no surprise that the Victory have done quite well in the current campaign. However, they have a fatal flaw and it’s the massive reliance on talented attacker Kruse that is their Achilles heel. Unfortunately for the hosts, Kruse misses this game today, which does their attack a lot of damage. In fact, it leaves in-form Costa Rican attacker Hernandez to pretty much carry the team with Allsopp and Thompson both the wrong side of thirty nowadays and despite both of them being able to put the ball in the net, they’ll need more against a very good J-League outfit, in my view. Additionally, the Victory miss box-to-box midfielder Brebner and defensive duo Kemp and Suka, the latter of which is a regular in the team and is a big blow. Only thirty-seven year old Muscat holds this defence together and we saw the results of that in Japan as the Victory lost 5-1 against Gamba Osaka back in March. Gamba Osaka aren’t untouchable; in fact, they’re pretty vulnerable in defence, tending to concede far more goals than they should in every competition. However, what they lack in defensive stability they make up for in attacking prowess, hence ten goals scored in four ACL games thus far. With experienced Endo pulling the strings and ex-Cerezo Osaka striker Adriano settling in well, the Japanese visitors have the potential to score goals here, especially with South Korean attackers Keun-Ho Lee and Seung-Yong Kim alongside them. Gamba Osaka have a lot of attacking options and that comes in handy, given that they attack a lot! Either way, we have a clear mismatch in ability here, in my view. The Victory will really struggle without Kruse whereas the Japanese outfit need just a win here to virtually guarantee themselves a place in the next round. I therefore have to feel that the away win at evens is a good value bet today.
Team news – Melbourne Victory miss Brebner, Kruse, Kemp, and Sukha.
Verdict: Gamba Osaka to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Manchester United, Cruzeiro, CSKA Sofia, Levski Sofia, Litex Lovech, Celtic.
Recommended bets:
Manchester United -1.5, Celtic, and Levski Sofia at over 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Manchester United vs Schalke 04 (9) -1.5 handicap
Copa Libertadores:
Internacional vs Penarol (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Cruzeiro vs Once Caldas Manizales (8) over 2.5 goals
Libertad Asuncion vs Fluminense (6) 1-1
Universidad Catolica vs Gremio (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Asian Champions League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Hangzhou Lucheng (6) 1-0
Melbourne Victory vs Gamba Osaka (7) 0-2
Seoul vs Al Ain (6) 1-0
Tianjin Teda vs Jeju United (5) 1-1
Sepahan vs Al Hilal (6) 2-1
Al Gharafa vs Al Jazira (7) 1-1
Al Nasr vs Pakhtakor Tashkent (6) 1-0
Baltic League:
Skonto Riga vs Liepajas Metalurgs (5) 0-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Levski Sofia (8) 1-2
Minior Pernik vs Akademik Sofia (7) 1-0
Kaliakra vs CSKA Sofia (8) 0-2
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna (5) 1-1
Litex Lovech vs Sliven (9) -1.5 handicap
Danish 1st Division:
Hjorring vs HB Koge (6)
Skive vs Hvidovre (7) over 2.5 goals
Roskilde vs Fredericia (6)
Latvian Virsliga:
FC Jurmala vs Gulbene 2005 (5) 1-1
RFS/Olimps Riga vs FK Jurmala (5) 0-1
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Urziceni vs Victoria Branesti (6) 1-0
Targu Mures vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (6) 2-1
FC Brasov vs Astra Ploiesti (7) 0-0
Steaua Bucharest vs Rapid Bucharest (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Celtic (8) 0-2
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Balestier Khalsa (7) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Tatran Presov vs Kosice (7) 1-0
Nitra vs Zlate Moravce (6) under 2.5 goals
Ruzomberok vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (6) 1-1
Spartak Trnava vs MSK Zilina (6) 1-0
Dubnica vs DAC Dunajska Streda (6) 2-1
Senica vs Slovan Bratislava (7) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Primorje vs Triglav (5) 1-1
Domzale vs Nafta Lendava (7) 2-0
Koper vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-0
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!