Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United
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Today’s secondary featured game is the A-League game between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United.
Melbourne Victory have a new manager for this game in Jim Magilton so it should be a lift to their players. I like Melbourne Victory have actually played reasonably well in recent weeks, looking far more potent than they had since last season, but also defending like idiots and thus being punished more often than they were rewarded so the change was not entirely unexpected.
Magilton only has long-term absentee Velaphi out so he’s got the opportunity to give his new team three points in front of their home fans. Magilton isn’t God, though – he’s got to sort out a defence that hasn’t kept a clean sheet since mid-November so I do think that the Victory will struggle with their old foe today. They’ve got enough firepower to do well, though, with Kewell, Hernandez, and Thompson in their ranks. Maybe even Solorzano will get another chance – I would hope so, as I rate him, but the Victory have a good set of attackers and they do tend to score goals as a result.
Visitors Adelaide United are playing really well under their new boss Kosmina and are unbeaten in four games as a result. They’ve scored goals a-plenty and they’re looking strong, too. They’re unrecognisable from the dour side that they were a couple of months ago with their attack given a new lease of life and Adelaide United given the platform to showcase how good they can actually be. The absence of Cassio and McKain today ruins their chances of a clean sheet, in my view, especially with Susak out and Dilevski a doubt. This side brings great spirit into the game and maybe can make it count today but with a lot of their defence out, I don’t rate their chances of securing three points today.
I’m expecting an open game, though. There are two clubs with nothing to lose and plenty to gain and both have enough firepower for their to be goals in this game. I’d hate to enter the 1×2 market in this game but over 2.5 goals really appeals to me here as the Victory are keen to impress their new manager and Adelaide United are good enough to contribute at the moment, especially with most of their defence out!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
Tunisia vs Ivory Coast – HT/FT Draw/Ivory Coast at 3/1.
This should be a very interesting game today, much more interesting than the average friendly (at least from my perspective) and I’m keen to see what develops.
You see, all that has stopped Ivory Coast from dominating the African Nations for some time has been the North African sides because they play a more European tactical approach. In 2010, it was Algeria that ousted The White Elephants. In 2008, it was Egypt that defeated them – heavily. Not many other sides can play good enough football or smart enough football to prevent such a strong side from doing well but the North African nations (generally Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria) usually can.
That’s my initial reasoning behind this game being a draw at half-time – Tunisia are not an easy side to break down and I think that even the Ivorians will experience that today.
This game is being played in the United Arab Emirates so there’s no home advantage here, which does help my bet, of course – I’ll almost never go against the North African sides at home.
Tunisia are fortunate to welcome back their all-time leading goalscorer Jemaa for this game. It’s a big boost because without him, they’re utterly useless in front of goal. He’s not a great player per se anyway but he’s important for Tunisia. There are doubts that Chikhaoui will play as he only arrived last night and his absence from the team would rob them of some much-needed creativity. Fellow midfielder Mejdi Traoui misses this game through injury although Tunisia have replacements for him, in my view. Tunisia like to control the ball in midfield and they’re good at it, too. They’re solid enough at the back although somewhat lacking in experience this time around as they’ve never really replaced Jaidi in the middle of their defence. Their goalkeeper isn’t the greatest and without the influential Jaidi at centre-back nowadays, I think the days may have passed whereby Tunisia could keep clean sheets in games like these.
Of course, it’s up to the Ivory Coast to make it count, ultimately. They have to be up for it and Didier Drogba has said that they will be so it’ll be interesting to see if they are or not. Ivory Coast are by far the strongest side in the African Nations this time around for my money and i think that they’re finally in a position to win it. Just look at their attackers, their strength, and the depth of their squad! The only weak area that they have is their goalkeepers and perhaps a lack of options on the flank but the rest of their squad is just excellent at this level. Any side that has the options of Drogba, Kalou, Gervinho, Doumbia, and Wilfried in it is capable of winning trophies and that’s what I expect here. They’ve got a massive engine in midfield with Yaya Toure, Tiote, and Zokora, just to name a few. Konan Ya and Gradel both possess pace and creativity. Eboue and Boka/Tiene provide tenacity and width in the back four whilst Kolo Toure holds it together in the middle of the defence. Ivory Coast look the complete unit with bags of experience and talent and it’s about time that they demonstrated it.
For me, this is a very big game for the Ivorians. They need to show that they’ve developed the maturity to beat tricky customers like Tunisia and this is the ideal opportunity for them to do so, in my view. I think it’ll take some time in the game to do but I do ultimately expect the Ivory Coast to break through and win the game. I would not be seduced by the ridiculously short odds on Ivory Coast winning this game outright although I must confess that the -1 Asian Handicap would appeal to me at evens or above if Ivory Coast were up for the game. However, I’m going for a bit of a long shot here based on how the two sides are likely to operate by taking a draw at half-time and Ivory Coast to have won by full-time at 3/1.
Verdict: HT/FT – Draw/Ivory Coast at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Tunisia vs Ivory Coast (7) 0-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United (5) 2-2
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti (8) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs San Luis (6) 2-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!