Mjallby Solvesborg vs Malmo
FreeToday’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Mjallby Solvesborg and Malmo. The hosts have made one hell of an impact since achieving promotion from the Superettan last season and have ruffled the feather of some big sides already with some compact, combative displays so they look set to give in-form Malmo a rough ride today. Malmo have developed a level of consistency this season that I’ve not seen them hit for some time so I fancy them as Helsingborgs’ main title threat this season if the early stages form of both Malmo and their contemporaries is anything to go by.
Currently, only league leaders Helsingborgs have conceded less goals than Mjallby, which is the fundamental reasoning behind them being so hard to beat. Mjallby have a mixed home record due to a lack of goals scored coupled with a strong defence but tend to find themselves on the receiving end of results when facing the better sides in the division – it’s just a bridge too far for the newly-promoted club at the moment. A win at home to Elfsborg Boras last match was impressive and has given them a momentum boost after a particularly tricky period in which they lost three out of four games, drawing the other game. However, Elfsborg haven’t hit top form at all yet this season so the result was not entirely unexpected. However, the tenacious Mjallby will have their work cut out to take anything away from in-form Malmo today and again – I simply think it’s a bridge too far for the newly-promoted hosts today.
As I touched upon briefly earlier, Malmo have achieved a level of consistency that had virtually become extinct during their recent seasons for varying reasons. Malmo have won eight out of twelve Allsvenskan games already this season and have won three out of their six away games, losing just once along the way and that was against mighty Helsingborgs so I think I’ll allow them that glitch! Malmo average scoring nearly two goals per away game, which is the best average in the division, so you have to give them their chances away from home, even against a strong defensive side like Mjallby. Malmo have won four out of their last five games, drawing the other encounter at Elfsborg Boras in their last away game. They won their previous away game against bitter rivals IFK Goteborg 2-0 in a game of clinical finishing and strong defending. Malmo have scored two goals or more in seven out of their last eight games with only their 2-1 defeat at Helsingborgs being the exception. Malmo have already seen off the tough away games against Kalmar and IFK Goteborg so you have to feel that they’ve finally reached a very unified and successful mental plain in which they’re reaping a lot of joy via determined and potent football. Basically, Malmo are on fire currently and really should be able to beat their inferior opponents today.
In many ways, the game at Mjallby will be arguably Malmo’s toughest yet. The wins and strong displays at the likes of Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg were excellent but the home sides in those games were expected to attack. Mjallby, however, can sit back and soak up pressure all day long and that’s exactly what I think they’ll try and do. They’ve got a couple of loose cannons in their side so I think someone will be sent off in this game as Mjallby will want to make their mark against a true giant of Swedish football today. However, Malmo are showing a really high level of composure and are scoring goals for fun so I have to back the more illustrious visitors to overcome their newly-promoted hosts today at good odds of evens.
Verdict: Malmo to win at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chacarita Juniors vs Racing Club Avellaneda – away win at evens.
In what is the final game of the current campaign for both sides today, Chacarita Juniors are exiting the campaign with a whimper following a nightmarish run of form whereas giants Racing Club are finishing on a high after a disappointing campaign so immediately you have to lean towards the away side. Chacarita have already lost seven out of nine home games in this campaign, which is the worst record in the division. No side has conceded as many goals at home as they have and with seven consecutive defeats under their belts, that record looks set to get worse tonight. They’ve lost three consecutive home games during that run and although they’re scoring goals, they’re leaking so many (sixteen during those seven games!) that it’s utterly redundant. Mentally, they’re all over the place and with no defence in sight, it’s hard to see them doing anything tonight. Racing have failed to deliver as a giant of this country for some time now but their four wins in five games have given them some good momentum to bring into this game. They’ve won their last two away games consecutively and they’ve also beaten both Banfield and Velez Sarsfield at home during that run so they’ve got good morale currently. Racing’s away record hasn’t been good in this campaign but it has been of late, as has their general level of play, so you have to give them their dues tonight.
Racing are the bigger and better of these sides and although they don’t tend to travel well, I feel that they can do a job on a demoralised and leaky Chacarita side tonight at good odds.
Verdict: Racing Club Avellaneda to win at evens.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs BATE Borisov – away win at 11/10.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk are a bigger and better side than their Vysshaya Liga placing suggests but they tend to struggle against the best in Belarus – BATE Borisov. Soligorsk benefit from a strong defence but tend to lack in front of goal as a result. They’ve not won any of their last three home games, losing their most recent game 4-2 against Dinamo Minsk. Given that Shakhtyor have lost their last four home games against BATE Borisov in all competitions, it’s hard to see their uninspiring home form of late grant them victory today against an impervious BATE Borisov defence so I’ll be going against them today. There’s only so many ways and so many statistics that say that BATE Borisov is the best side in this country and frankly I’ve exhausted them all on here of late! They’re basically great value to beat anyone in Belarus at 11/10 and Shakhtyor Soligorsk are no exception here, particularly with BATE Borisov still yet to concede a goal in the Vysshaya Liga this season.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 11/10.
Deportes Quindio vs Deportivo Pereira – home win at 5/4.
Deportes Quindio have had a dismal campaign in Primera A but just one defeat in their past four games has given them some decent momentum, particularly with two of those games resulting in wins. Deportes Qudinio are now unbeaten in their last five home games in all competitions so confidence is good when they’re playing on their own turf, particularly with four of those games resulting in wins and having only conceded one goal along the way. Quindio aren’t as bad as their league placing suggests but their excellent home form of late appears to have slipped under the radar of most people so odds should remain good for this selection tonight.
Deportivo Pereira have also had a bad campaign but their form is much worse, much more disheartening than their hosts’ form of late. They’re without a win in seven consecutive Primera A games, losing five times along the way. They’ve lost their last four away games in Primera A consecutively and although they’ve scored in three of those games, they’re conceding so heavily at the moment that they’re just not taking any points. Deportivo Pereira are a much better side than their league placing indicates but their form of late has earned them their poor league placing so I can’t give them the respect for this game that I probably should because of the good odds against them.
Quindio remain a good bet in my eyes for as long as they’re at 5/4 or higher. They’re not as good as Pereira, in my opinion, but they’re playing well enough for that to be somewhat redundant tonight. I expect quite a bitter and open game between these two sides so expect cards but the home win should be on the cards here ultimately.
Verdict: Deportes Quindio to win at 5/4.
TPS Turku vs Inter Turku – home win at 5/4.
I normally stay away from the Turku derby but with Inter’s dismal displays of late and TPS’ composed displays, I have to favour the home side at good odds. TPS lost a lot of players over the winter break but to their credit they’ve come back strongly and although they’re certainly not the same potent side that terrorised the Veikkausliiga last season, they’re a much more composed and in-control side this season so they’re not a complete write-off, which surprises me. The fact that TPS have only conceded one goal in four games this season shows you that they’ve turned their focus from attack to defence and it’s working for them, at least temporarily. They lack the firepower to finish as strongly as they did last season despite the return of prodigal son Jonatan Johansson but they remain a difficult side to play against tactically so I’ll give them their dues today. Inter Turku employ a very similar style of football to what TPS have adopted this season so this would normally be a horrific encounter (and it may yet be!) but leaking five goals in two games against KuPS Kuopio and FC Lahti respectively (two of the worst sides in the division) leaves them looking shaky for this game. Inter are looking susceptible in defence and that was their usual strong point, the one that ensured that they finished high up the table as they don’t score many goals as it is. However, without it, the strong bunch of players looks weak and devoid of ideas so I can’t entertain the thought of them taking anything from their game against their bitter rivals today with their hosts looking every inch the composed side that Inter wish to be.
TPS have banished their bad memories of games at home to Inter by winning their last two home games consecutively in all competitions against their bitter rivals so they should be in a sound place mentally ahead of this tough game. Although there’s very little between these two sides, I have to favour the home win for a TPS side that are simply playing better than their rivals at the moment, particularly with odds of 5/4 being offered on this outcome.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at 5/4.
Lorient vs LOSC Lille – lay LOSC Lille at 5/4.
I’m aware that Lorient are devoid of motivation for this game and Lille need the win here but the odds on offer are utterly ridiculous on the away win. Lille should never be 2/5 to win away from home against anyone – fact! They’re punching above their weight this season due to some excellent seasons from youngsters like Eden Hazard but they’re not a Lyon or a Marseille – they’re simply a hard-working side that are hard to play against. Ligue 1 isn’t the best league in the world for away wins so don’t get me wrong here but Lille have won as many away games as Nancy and Valenciennes this season – is that really the level of sides that they want to be compared with? They’re simply not as good as their league placing suggests so I’m very wary about backing them today. Lorient are everyone’s favourite side when it comes to pissing off the bigger sides because they’re so hard to play against. Lorient haven’t lost against Lille home or away in their last six meetings, winning their last two consecutively, the most recent of which was at Lille earlier this season. Lorient have only lost twice at home this season and those defeats have come against Marseille and Lyon – can Lille match them? If they do so then they deserve their lofty place but I’m cynical about their chances because I just don’t believe that they’re good enough to do it. With the above in mind, laying the visitors at very generous odds has to be given some thought here.
Verdict: Lay LOSC Lille at 5/4.
Diosgyori VTK vs Ferencvaros – away win at 4/6.
Ferencvaros don’t travel well as a rule but they’re finally facing a side that they can beat away from home today; Diosgyori VTK. The hosts are already consigned to relegation from the Soproni Liga and have sacked their manager as a result. The players and fans are in disarray so it’s hard to see just how Disogyori would take points from anyone in this division currently. They’ve lost five consecutive games, including two home games in a row (one even against lowly Nyiregyhaza Spartacus!) so it’s fair to say that they’re cannon fodder for everyone at the moment. Ferencvaros blow hot and cold in a worrying fashion but frankly they’re a better side and they’re doing enough at the moment to claim a slender but useful win over the already-relegated hosts today. I wouldn’t normally touch Ferencvaros on the road but 4/6 on this outcome is too long as the hosts have so many problems at the moment that it’s untrue so the away win should be good accumulator fodder today – possibly even good fodder for a single if you feel so inclined!
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 4/6.
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata – home win at 10/11.
I hoped Albirex Niigata would make another successful J-League appearance this season and they’ve finally granted my wishes with some very impressive displays of late – better late than never, eh? They’re currently the most in-form side in the division following five games unbeaten, winning their last three games consecutively. They’ve beaten strong Yokohama F Marinos at home and in-form Shimizu S-Pulse on the road in their last two games so they’ve not beaten poor sides – they’ve continued this run in style. They’re a good side so please don’t make the mistake of underestimating them whilst they’re in-form. Momentum is strong and they’re a good side so I have to ride their wave today.
Visitors Montedio Yamagata look set for another campaign valiantly battling against relegation. They’re lingering mid-table currently but they simply don’t score enough goals to be a comfortable side in the J-League so it’s hard to place any faith in them. They’ve lost three out of their six away games already this season and only Kawasaki Frontale and Shonan Bellmare have conceded more than they have on the road so they have a lot of defensive issues on the road, generally speaking. They lost their last away game against Nagoya Grampus and were humiliated 3-0 at home by misfits Tokyo last match so morale is a bit low currently. They’re facing a superior side today so I expect them to struggle, particularly with their hosts in such good form at the moment.
Albirex Niigata tend to shade the head-to-heads between these two sides and they’ve got the quality advantage so you have to give them some thought today. The odds of 10/11 aren’t as good as I’d hoped but unfortunately the bookies have approached this game very well indeed, much to my dismay. Nonetheless, there should be some value in the odds on the home win today as I expect a narrow but fairly comfortable home win for Albirex Niigata today.
Verdict: Albirex Niigata to win at 10/11.
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – home win at 5/4.
Neither side has anything to play for so do approach with caution. Lechia are in awful form with four consecutive defeats and Jagiellonia Bialystok are the superior side but don’t travel well. This has all the hallmarks of a draw in the making but one thing sways me here; motivation. Jagiellonia had no interest in winning their last game against a poor Polonia Bytom side that don’t travel well, drawing 0-0. With that in mind, it’s hard to see them generating any motivation for this trip. However, Lechia’s players all get a hefty bonus if they finish in the top eight of the Ekstraklasa and a win today guarantees them that bonus so I’m seeing some potential value on the home win today. Jagiellonia are usually strong defensively and Lechia are poor in front of goal but the motivation factor can be a big factor in deciding games like this so I think it’s worthy of consideration today. History favours Lechia with Lechia winning their last two league encounters at home to Jagiellonia in both this division and the division below so they are capable of doing so. The big question is can Lechia score in this game? I think so because of their tenacious displays so I think 5/4 on the home win could have some good value today.
Verdict: Lechia Gdansk to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
River Plate, Jablonec, Sigma Olomouc, AC Horsens, Chelsea, Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, Trans Narva, KPV Kokkola, Olympique de Marseille, Olympique Lyonnais, Ferencvaros, Yokohama F Marinos, Liepajas Metalurgs, Skonto Riga, Wisla Krakow, Lech Poznan, CFR Cluj, Olimpija Ljubljana, Levante, Winterthur, Kriens, Thun, Lugano, Servette.
Recommended bets:
Chelsea, Jablonec, Ferencvaros, and Lech Poznan at 3/1.
KPV Kokkola, Levante, and Malmo at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Chacarita Juniors vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) 0-1
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman (6) 2-1
Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield (7) 0-0
River Plate vs Tigre (8) 2-0
Austrian Liga 1:
First Vienna vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) over 2.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs BATE Borisov (7) 0-1
Dinamo Brest vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 1-1
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dnepr Mogilev (4) 1-0
Belshina vs Vitebsk (6) 1-0
Minsk vs Partizan Minsk (7) 2-1
Neman Grodno vs Naftan Novopolotsk (7) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense (7) 2-0
Gremio Prudente vs Atletico Mineiro (5) over 2.5 goals
Vitoria vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Quindio vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 2-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportes Tolima (5) 2-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Banik Ostrava (7) 0-1
Kladno vs Slovan Liberec (5) 1-2
Sparta Prague vs Teplice (4) 1-1
Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Prague (4) 1-0
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians Prague (8) 2-0
Jablonec vs Ceske Budejovice (8) 2-0
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovacko (7) 2-0
Brno vs Bohemians 1905 (4) 0-0
Danish 1st Division:
Vejle vs AB Copenhagen (7)
Braband vs AC Horsens (8) over 2.5 goals
English FA Cup Final:
Chelsea vs Portsmouth (9) -1.75 handicap
English League One Play-Off:
Huddersfield Town vs Millwall (6) over 2.5 goals
English League Two Play-Off:
Aldershot Town vs Rotherham United (6)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn vs Lootus (9) -1.75 handicap
Nomme Kalju vs Sillamae Kalev (6) 2-2
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn (8) 0-2
Trans Narva vs Flora Paide (9) -1.75 handicap
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Viljandi Tulevik (5) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
TPS Turku vs Inter Turku (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Finnish Ykkonen:
PoPa Pori vs RoPS Rovaniemi (6)
KPV Kokkola vs Espoo (8)
French Ligue 1:
Sochaux vs Auxerre (5) 0-1
Racing Club Lens vs Girondins de Bordeaux (5) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Grenoble Foot (8) over 2.5 goals
Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Mans (10) 2-0
Toulouse vs AS Monaco (6) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC (6) 1-1
Boulogne vs Stade Rennais (6) 0-0
OGC Nice vs Saint-Etienne (6) 2-1
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Valenciennes (7) 1-1
Lorient vs LOSC Lille (5) 1-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Diosgyori VTK vs Ferencvaros (8) 0-2
Ujpest vs Debreceni VSC (7) 1-1
Kecskemeti TE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 2-1
Lombard Papa vs Paksi SE (5) 1-1
Budapest Honved vs Nyiregyhaza Spartacus (4) 1-1
Gyori ETO FC vs MTK Budapest (7) 1-0
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Valur Reykjavik (5) over 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United (5) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan vs Juventus (7) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Lazio vs Udinese (5) 1-0
Italian Serie B:
Empoli vs Albinoleffe (6) both sides to score
Modena vs Brescia (6)
Ancona vs Cittadella (5) under 2.5 goals
Reggina vs Gallipoli (7)
Frosinone vs Grosseto (5) over 2.5 goals
Salernitana vs Sassuolo (7)
Piacenza vs Triestina (6)
Torino vs Vicenza (7) under 2.5 goals
Japanese J-League:
Tokyo vs Shimizu S-Pulse (8) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata (8) 2-0
Yokohama F Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga (8) 2-0
Vegalta Sendai vs Urawa Red Diamonds (4) 1-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Vissel Kobe (5) 2-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Dinaburg Daugavpils vs FK Ventspils (5) 1-2
Tranzits Ventspils vs Jurmala (6) 0-1
Blazma Rezekne vs RFS/Olimps Riga (7) 2-0
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Jelgava (8) 2-0
Skonto Riga vs Jauniba (9) 3-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Santos Laguna vs Morelia (7) over 2.5 goals
Toluca vs Pachuca (5) 1-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Strommen vs Sogndal (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warsaw (7) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Odra Wodzislaw (8) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin (9) 3-1, Lewandowski to score at any time
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 1-0
Legia Warsaw vs GKS Belchatow (5) 0-0
Slask Wroclaw vs Arka Gdynia (5) 2-1
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow (5) 1-0
Korona Kielce vs Ruch Chorzow (5) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
CFR Cluj vs International (8) 2-0
Gaz Metan Medias vs Unirea Alba Iulia (7) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (4) 1-1
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Amkar Perm (7) under 2.5 goals
Tom Tomsk vs Spartak Nalchik (6) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Geylang United (6) 2-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs MSK Zilina (5) 0-1
Nitra vs Slovan Bratislava (6) 1-1
Artmedia Petrzalka vs Senica (5) 1-1
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Spartak Trnava (4) 2-1
Dubnica vs Kosice (6) over 2.5 goals
Tatran Presov vs Ruzomberok (5) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Maribor vs Interblock Ljubljana (7) 2-0
Rudar Velenje vs Gorica (5) over 2.5 goals
Domzale vs Celje (6) 0-0
Nafta Lendava vs Koper (5) 2-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Drava (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 2-1
Atletico Madrid vs Getafe (5) 1-1
Real Zaragoza vs Villarreal (6) 2-2
Almeria vs Sevilla CF (7) 0-1
Real Mallorca vs Espanyol (7) 2-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cordoba vs Recreativo de Huelva (5) under 2.5 goals
Levante vs Albacete (8)
Salamanca vs Cartagena (6) over 2.5 goals
Huesca vs Real Union Club de Irun (4)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Real Betis Balompie (7)
Real Murcia vs Villarreal II (5)
Las Palmas vs Cadiz (6)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken Goteborg (6) 1-1
Halmstads vs Djurgardens (6) 0-0
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Malmo (7) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Superettan:
Brage vs Jonkopings Sodra (6)
Angelholm vs Landskrona BoIS (7)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Vasby United (7)
Trollhattan vs Ljungskile (5)
GIF Sundsvall vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
Gossau vs Thun (9)
Kriens vs Locarno (8)
Lugano vs Vaduz (8) under 2.5 goals
Le Mont vs Servette (8)
Schaffhausen vs Stade Nyonnais (6)
Wil vs Lausanne Sports (5)
Winterthur vs Wohlen (8)
Yverdon Sport vs Biel-Bienne (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Denizlispor vs Gaziantepspor (5) 1-1
Sivasspor vs Ankaragucu (7) 1-0
Diyarbakirspor vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-1
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!