Montenegro vs Uzbekistan
FreeFor membership details go here or alternatively go here for consultancy details.
Today’s secondary featured game is the International Friendly in Podgorica between Montenegro and Uzbekistan. Hosts Montenegro are expected to win this one fairly easily and without wanting to seem overly dismissive of the Uzbek side, I have to agree with the sentiments mentioned above.
A lot of people write sides off because they don’t have players that they’ve heard of, which is frankly fucking stupid, not to mention ignorant. However, the reason that I expect Uzbekistan to struggle tonight is not only because Montenegro has been a nightmare away game for better sides than they have but also because they miss their two best attacking players by a mile – experienced target man Shatskikh and his pacey accomplice Geynrikh. Without those two players, the Uzbeks potency is massively damaged, as is their experience of playing European football so I think this’ll be a tough away game for them. However, Montenegro miss their best striker Vucinic and best playmer Jovetic and given that they’re not a particularly creative or potent side to begin with, I have to expect them to struggle here, especially with secondary playmaker Boskovic also absent for this game. Montenegro do have both Vukcevic and Delibasic available for them in attack so they should have enough in their arsenal to score at least once against an Uzbek side that doesn’t defend well outside of Asia so I envision Montenegro edging this one. Indeed, I expect a similar game to the one that we saw between Montenegro and Azerbaijan back in November last year as the two sides in question are of similar calibre and as Kranjcar’s men are motivated, they have a quality edge over the Uzbeks, and that be enough to make it count here.
However, we digress; the 1×2 market doesn’t really interest me here. What does interest me is the odds on either side not scoring as they’re very generously priced at 4/5 when you consider that both sides miss their two best attacking players and considering that Montenegro are rarely involved in goalfests at home due to their defensive nature. Therefore, my call is for either side not to score at 4/5 here.
Team news – Montenegro miss Vucinic, Jovetic, Damjanovic, and Boskovic whereas Uzbekistan miss Shatskikh and Geynrikh.
Verdict: Either side not to score at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Lithuania vs Poland – away win at 11/10.
First of all, don’t be surprised to see this game become a bloodbath of some kind as there are suggestions that this game could end up akin to infamous match between Zalgiris Vilnius and Wisla Krakow in 2007.
However, after lengthy consideration, I do have to favour Poland here. There’s no doubt in my mind that Lithuania are resting players for the game against Spain that follows this encounter against their local rivals and as much as I respect Lithuania’s team, they’re not the kind of team that can rest the likes of experienced Semberas, Stankevicius, and star striker Sernas and still win the game. It doesn’t help that boss Zutautas has reportedly had a falling out with Rubin Kazan goalkeeper Arlauskis over injuries and training and as such, the talented goalkeeper has not been included in the squad. The two Cesnauskis’ should prove to be pacey threats for the hosts, especially with Danilevicius in attack. Skerla’s presence at the back is essential too, especially with no Stankevicius to help keep it together at the back. However, this is speculation on the basis that I’ve no idea who Zutautas is going to field in this game given that he’s already resting some big players – will he rest more? The chance is there, certainly.
Poland do have motivation to win this game, too, which helps. The reason is that these are the final two games for experienced defender Zewlakow, who is expected to make his 101st and 102nd appearances for his country over the next two games and the respected defender should have his fellow team-mates working hard to ensure that he has a fruitful last couple of games.
However, the joke in Poland at the moment is that Smuda could create a better team from Polish absentees rather than from the squad he’s brought for this game with Kuszczak, Boruc, Socha, Perquis, Arboleda, Boenisch, Malecki, Kazmierczak, Matusczyk, Majewski, Smolarek, Brozek, Fojut, Wawrzyniak, Krychowiak, Mariusz Lewandowski, Rybus, and Sobiech being the “squad” of absentees, although it’s worth noting that a couple of those player are still awaiting clearance on citizenship papers.
Joking aside, Poland have a decent enough side to win this game against a depleted Lithuania side, in my view. Peszko is finally back in the squad and with Lewandowski getting better in each game and Grosicki playing well in Turkey with Sivasspor, you have to feel that the Poles are bringing more potency to this game than their close rivals. The skill and pace of Peszko, Obraniak, and Blaszczykowski should prove to be a massive threat to the Lithuanian hosts and although the Poles are unboutedly missing a few players who really should be here, I still think they’ve got enough to win this game.
Over 2.5 goals interests me as both sides could score in this game but I’ll stick with the straight away win given how uninterested Lithuania appear to be in this game.
Lithuania squad:
Goalkeepers – Karcemarskas, Cerniauskas, Setkus
Defenders – Skerla, Kijanskas, Stankevicius, Zaliukas, Radavicius, Zvirgzdauskas, Andriuskevicius, Borovskij
Midfielders – Semberas, Panka, Ivaskevicius, Galkevicius, Mikoliunas, Edgaras Cesnauskis, Deividas Cesnauskis, Razanauskas, Papsys, Eliosius, Novikoras
Strikers – Sernas, Danilevicius, Labukas, Astrauskas
Poland squad:
Goalkeepers – Kaczmarek, Sandomierski, Malkowski
Defenders – Piszczek, Glki, Dudka, Glowacki, Wolakiewicz, Sadloc, Jodlowiec, Rzezniczak, Zewlakow
Midfielders – Obraniak, Roger, Blaszczykowski, Peszko, Murawski, Wilk, Mierzejewski, Pawlowski
Strikers – Lewandowski, Jelen, Grosicki, Kucharczyk
Team news – Lithuania miss Stankevicius, Semberas, and Sernas whereas Poland will miss Jelen and Tyton.
Verdict: Poland to win at 11/10.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event at www.OddsPortal.com!
Accumulator fodder:
Netherlands, France, Spain, Turkey U21, Portugal U21, Estudiantes De La Plata.
Recommended bets:
Netherlands and Portugal U21 at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Hungary vs Netherlands (8) over 2.5 goals
Austria vs Belgium (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Serbia vs Northern Ireland (5) under 2.5 goals
Slovenia vs Italy (6) under 2.5 goals
Luxembourg vs France (9) -1.5 handicap
Spain vs Czech Republic (8) -1.5 handicap
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:
Turkey vs Liechtenstein (9) -1.5 handicap
International Friendlies:
South Korea vs Honduras (7) 2-0
China vs New Zealand (5) 0-0
Kuwait vs Jordan (6) 0-0
Iraq vs North Korea (7) under 2.5 goals
Estonia vs Uruguay (7) 1-2
Montenegro vs Uzbekistan (7) 2-0
Qatar vs Tunisia (6) 1-0
Lithuania vs Poland (6) over 2.5 goals
Jamaica vs Venezuela (5) 2-2
Panama vs Bolivia (5) 1-0
International Friendlies – U21:
Republic of Macedonia vs Slovenia (5) 1-0
Netherlands vs Germany (6) over 2.5 goals
Malta vs Montenegro (7) 0-1
Portugal vs Republic of Ireland (8) 2-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors vs Quilmes (6) 2-1
Estudiantes De La Plata vs All Boys (8) 2-0
English League One:
Brentford vs Carlisle United (5)
Hartlepool United vs Rochdale (5)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Walsall (6)
Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough United (7) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Northampton Town vs Torquay United (5) over 2.5 goals
Lincoln City vs Rotherham United (6)
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Galway United (7) 2-0
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers (5) 1-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Dundalk (5) 2-1
UCD vs Bray Wanderers (7) 1-1
Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United (7) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
LKS Lodz vs Warta Poznan (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Gombak United (5) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town (5) 1-1
Newtown vs Airbus UK (6) 1-0
Neath Athletic vs The New Saints (5) 1-2
Prestatyn Town vs Llanelli (6) 1-1
Bangor City vs Port Talbot Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!