MSK Zilina vs Chelsea
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter in Slovakia between MSK Zilina and UEFA Champions League title hopefuls Chelsea. This is MSK Zilina’s debut in the UEFA Champions League Group Stage and it’ll no doubt inspire them in this game tonight so be careful when taking this bet.
However, the Slovakian giants will be facing formidable opponents Chelsea and are thus in for a rough ride tonight. Zilina haven’t looked as good this year as they did last year although that can be partially attributed to striker Lietava having joined Turkish outfit Konyaspor and also down to it still being early season. The nucleus of Zilina’s squad has remained the same which is why they’re still one of the top two sides in the country so they shouldn’t be dismissed here. Barring their initial encounter with Maltese outfit Birkirkara, Zilina have looked good in the Champions League Qualifiers, particularly in their back-to-back wins against Czech giants Sparta Prague, particularly as they kept clean sheets in both games. As much as I respect Zilina’s excellent results, which impressively included a 4-2 aggregate win against Bulgaria’s Litex Lovech too, I would say that they’ve not been tested to the level of Chelsea yet. Litex weren’t in the best of shape at the time they faced Zilina and nor were Sparta Prague but Zilina now have to deal with a far superior side in the knowledge that Chelsea haven’t conceded in their last two trips to Slovakia to face both themselves and Slovan Bratislava over the past fifteen years. Indeed, Zilina didn’t score at all in their two ties with Chelsea back in the 2002/2003 season so they know how tough this game is going to be, particularly as this is arguably a much stronger Chelsea side.
Visitors Chelsea have looked immaculate in the English Premier League so far this season and they’ll take great confidence into their European away game as a result. I’d quickly point out that they’ve barely been tested in the English Premier League so far this season but so what? You can only beat what is in front of you and nobody has done it better than Chelsea have so far this season with goals galore being scored and sides finding it increasingly difficult to break through their backline. Only West Ham United have scored against Chelsea in their last four games but they’ve scored a hefty fifteen times along the way, which is an average of nearly four goals per game. Chelsea bring a massive amount of experience into this game, not to mentioned a vastly experienced and talented manager in Carlo Ancelotti, so I expect a very shrewd display from the English Premier League champions. They’ve not always convinced in Europe over the past couple of years as their playing style is a tad susceptible but I genuinely think they’ll be far too good for their hosts to see anything but an away win occur here.
In my mind, MSK Zilina can only trouble Chelsea in two ways – vociferous support and dogged tenacity. However, if Chelsea are susceptible to either of those things whilst playing football in the most popular league in the world then they’ve got far more problems than they let on! Any kind of composed display here should see a vastly superior Chelsea side ease to victory here and I expect them to have more than enough possession to stroll through this game without conceding a goal. Therefore, odds of 4/5 on Chelsea winning without conceding look a bit too generous to be ignored here.
Verdict: Chelsea to win to nil at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Bayern Munich vs AS Roma – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Two giants of European football that have started slowly for different reasons meeting early in the season when neither side are scoring many goals – under 2.5 goals, anyone? Bayern somehow failed to score against a virtually defenderless Werder Bremen side last match and are clearly missing Arjen Robben more than they say. AS Roma have had a largely full-strength side but Ranieri’s boys have really failed to deliver so far this season, which is surprising if you consider how convincing they were for the vast majority of the season last year. Unfortunately for Roma, they’re now actually missing some big names i.e. Vucinic, Adriano, Riise etc. so I’m not sure they’ll score here, although to be fair, Bayern’s defence isn’t exactly rock-solid either. We have two very good managers in this game, both of which tend to play shrewd tactical games and thus I expect this game to take a natural descent towards unders. I don’t think Bayern have enough going forward to destroy Roma tonight and I don’t think Roma have enough to even score tonight so we should see a fairly low-scoring game here between two good and experienced European sides barring an early goal.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Partizan Belgrade – home win with -1.5 handicap at 23/20.
Shakhtar Donetsk have blown hot and cold so far in the Ukrainian Premier League this season but the attacking quality in their side is undeniable. The likes of Eduardo, Willian, Luiz Adriano, and Douglas Costa can create something from nothing and with their Arsenal-esque football style, it’s hard to see Partizan withstanding the hosts tonight. I have one big concern for Shakhtar Donetsk and that’s the loss of Fernandinho through a broken leg and he’s somewhat instrumental to the hosts in terms of experience and creativity. Nonetheless, Shakhtar still possess a very good side and it’s going to take a momentumental tactical display to prevent them playing the game their way on the excellent turf at the Donbass Arena. Trips to Ukraine used to be feared for the climate, the pitches, and the hostility. Shakhtar don’t possess those features – they instead boast footballing brilliance, wealth, class, finess, and a magnificent stage on which to play it. To counter Shakhtar Donetsk, you must be exceptional defensively or better in attack and I just don’t think Partizan are capable of either, particularly having lost here 4-1 during their last visit and also because of their dubious defending in all of their European games thus far.
I mean, Partizan Belgrade are a decent enough side but they’re still not what they were when they had the likes of Jovetic, Ljajic, and Tosic. They miss defenders Stefanovic and Jovanovic through suspension and even have strong doubts over the fitness of captain Krstajic, whom their defence depends on an awful lot for experience and ability, so they’re really lacking in defence. I don’t see where Partizan’s attacking threat is coming from here against a strong Shakhtar side but I can see them conceding with those three defenders missing. Partizan don’t boast a big in-depth squad so I think they’re really going to struggle here, especially based on their past performances here. The Serbian fans that have travelled to Ukraine will not allow their side to give anything less than 100% as Partizan know from their domestic games but I think this game is beyond them here – an early goal could start an avalanche of a home win here if things go as planned.
Despite the missing Fernandinho and the tenacity of their opponents, 23/20 looks too generous on the -1.5 goal handicap tonight when you consider the wealth of attacking options available to Shakhtar Donetsk on a pitch that suits them far more than their opponents so I quite fancy Shakthar to do the business tonight.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 23/20.
Gremio vs Palmeiras – home win at 19/20.
No defeats in five consecutive games shows that Gremio are taking the threat of relegation very seriously and three wins along the way says that momentum is finally on their side. It’s taken them aeons of time to start playing football but now that they are, they’re again a force to be reckoned with. Gremio were outstanding at home last season and there’s little reason that they can’t re-create that form now – it’s just taken them a long time to achieve it. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last four games with only a tricky trip to Botafogo puncturing that record in a 2-2 draw. Indeed, Gremio won their last match 1-0 at mighty Corinthians – the first side to take any points from their trip to Corinthians this season – so you can see how high confience is in the Gremio camp currently. Although only Jonas has been scoring goals for Gremio en mass this season, others are starting to chip in with goals, most notably midfielder Douglas and Gremio are looking better for it. Gremio beat Palmeiras 2-0 at home last season and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn’t surprise me with the above in mind.
Scolari’s Palmeiras are playing randomly at best, snatching unexpected draws and failing to win in what can only be described as simple games. They’re not proving very easy to beat but they’re certainly not playing well enough to win games like this. They’re looking better in defence than they do in attack but a driven Gremio is almost certain to score against Palmeiras tonight so will they do then? Ewerton and Kleber can be a real handful on their day but Palmeiras’ style nowadays isn’t attacking enough to hinder in-form Gremio, in my opinion, so I expect to see them struggle tonight, particulaly as goalscoring isn’t their strongpoint.
I think the odds on this game are about fair but I do feel Gremio will do the business. Two defeats in ten away games says that Palmeiras are a nightmare side to host but their lack of goalscoring makes me favour the in-form hosts as I at least expect them to score. Palmeiras tend to play for draws but Gremio are playing well enough to take Palmeiras out of their shell and thus punish them in attack. Either way, I fancy the home win tonight.
Verdict: Gremio to win at 19/20.
Malmo vs Helsingborg – home win at 23/20.
Malmo’s head-to-head record against Helsingborg is not a convincing one but I don’t think they’ve been as well-placed as they are now to beat their title rivals so we should see a fascinating game here. With just eight games remaining and both sides locked on sixty-nine points apiece, this game is very much key in the deciding of the title as two big sides competed for their respective long overdue Allsvenskan title so we should see a feisty encounter here. However, the concern has to be largely with Helsingborg, who have failed to scored for two consecutive away games now, drawing 0-0 with bitter rivals IFK Goteborg and surprisingly receiving a 3-0 thumping at Orebro last match. They’ve looked nervous of late and although it’s dangerous to write off such a good side, they’re going to have to play a lot better to take anything from a hard trip to Malmo. Malmo play strong possession football in all of their home games which is why they’ve won ten out of eleven home games this season, drawing the other. They average scoring just under two goals per home game but their massively impressive record is the one that shows them conceding less than a goal per every two home games due to their possession football. They’re a completely different side at home in comparison to the side you see away from home, which is a bit bizarre. Nonetheless, six wins and one draw from their last seven games says that Malmo aren’t fazed at all by this title run-in and look extremely strong ahead of this game so I have to favour them against giants Helsingborg today, particularly as the game is in Malmo and the hosts are looking untouchable with Larsson and Mehmeti in lethal form in attack.
Verdict: Malmo to win at 23/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Chelsea, Arsenal, Shakhtar Donetsk, Cruzeiro, AGF Aarhus.
Recommended bets:
Arsenal, Chelsea, and Shakhtar Donetsk at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Bayern Munich vs AS Roma (6) under 2.5 goals
CFR Cluj vs Basel (5) 1-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Spartak Moscow (6) 2-1
MSK Zilina vs Chelsea (9) 0-2
AC Milan vs Auxerre (5) under 2.5 goals
Real Madrid vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) over 2.5 goals
Arsenal vs Sporting Braga (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Partizan Belgrade (8) -1.5 handicap
Copa Sudamericana:
Banfield vs Velez Sarsfield (5) under 2.5 goals
Universidad San Martin vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Jeonbuk Motors vs Al Shabab (4) 1-1
Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma vs Suwon Bluewings (5) 2-1
Zob Ahan vs Pohang Steelers (6) 1-1
Al Hilal vs Al Gharafa (7) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Atletico Goianiense (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Cruzeiro vs Guarani (8) 2-1
Gremio vs Palmeiras (7) 2-0
Goias vs Botafogo (5) 1-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro (6) 2-1
Fluminense vs Corinthians (6) 2-1
Gremio Prudente vs Flamengo (6) 0-0
Vitoria vs Ceara (6) over 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Kolding vs AGF Aarhus (8)
English League One:
Milton Keynes Dons vs Southampton (6)
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Klaipeda (7) 2-0
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Bodo Glimt vs Fredrikstad (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Albirex Niigata (5) 1-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Mjallby Solvesborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg (6) 1-1
Atvidaberg vs Djurgarden (3) 0-1, draw no bet
Malmo vs Helsingborg (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!