Naestved vs Skive
FreeToday’s featured game is the Danish 1st Division game between Naestved and Skive. The game itself is redundant as both sides are comfortably mid-table with only a handful of games remaining. However, both sides have shown no sign of slowing down despite having nothing to play for so I’m expecting a good game between these two sides today.
Hosts Naestved enter this game on the back of four consecutive wins, scoring nine times and conceding just twice despite three of those games being away from home. Naestved’s home form isn’t overly flattering with just six wins in thirteen games but they’re strong in defence and average scoring over 1.5 goals per home game so they’re generally a threat at home. Having already beaten the likes of AB Copenhagen and Vestjaelland at home this season, Naestved have demonstrated that they’re a capable side but are a tad inconsistent with it. However, one thing that they have displayed of late is consistency and I’m happy to back them with their strong momentum as a result.
Visitors Skive are just about the most hated side in the world right now after their logic-defying victory at Lyngby last match so I daresay there’ll be a few uneasy punters considering avoiding the game today. However, I simply cannot escape the fact that Skive are a very poor side. Their win at Lyngby was heroic but a one-off; nothing more. I mean, seriously – Skive have lost ten out of thirteen away games this season. The only side that can match that record is Frem, who are already relegated! Skive average conceding two goals per away game and generally score less than a goal per away game on average. Last match bumped up their overall tally of goals on the road with the number of goals scored in that game nearly doubling their total away goals for the season, which should tell you how out of character it was for both sides.
Skive have claimed two respectable results of late against Fredericia and Lyngby, no questions asked, and they certainly need the points more than their hosts. I won’t deny I’m a tad concerned that Skive are very driven at the moment but I simply cannot overlook the aesthetics of their form and that is that they’re a poor side and an even poorer traveller. Naestved are on fire at the moment and are scoring goals for fun so I have to favour the hosts today against what I can only describe as inferior opponents. I appreciate that Skive need the points but nonetheless odds of 4/5 on the home win are still surprisingly a bit long so I’m happy to call the home win here today.
Verdict: Naestved to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara – lay Atletico Mineiro at 11/10.
This is a risky call as newly-promoted Ceara are purely riding the crest of a wave at the moment and it’s only a matter of time before they come crashing down. However, you can’t argue with their excellent run of six games without defeat, winning their four home games and drawing their two away games. They’re compact, well-organised, determined, and efficient, so they are worthy of your respect. Atletico Mineiro are a good side, particularly at home, and even at this early stage of the season it’s easy to see that’s where their strength lies with two wins in three games already. However, for all of Atletico’s potency, they’re one of the weaker Serie A sides in defence, something which has been proven already this season with them having leaked fifteen goals in six games – nearly three goals per game on average. Atletico have lost their last three games consecutively too so morale is low at the moment. Atletico are the better of the two sides, in my opinion, but they’ve picked a really bad time to face a driven Ceara side and could be susceptible tonight. Ceara have already held Santos to a draw away from home this season – why not an out-of-form and disjointed Atletico Mineiro? The odds on the home win are too short for my liking in this instance so laying the hosts could be a good value bet tonight.
Verdict: Lay Atletico Mineiro at 11/10.
Guarani vs Gremio Prudente – home win at 6/5.
This is a risky one but the odds are good enough to take a chance with. Guarani are one of Brazil’s more unremarkable clubs, particularly this season, in that they score and concede minimally, preferring to avoid defeat rather than take a chance on three points and potentially losing the game as a result. However, despite their anti-football stance, they’re decent at home as Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo have both already discovered this season by failing to win here. Guarani don’t score enough goals for my liking but they’re a decent home side, as I’ve mentioned, and should have ample opportunities against a week Gremio Prudente side. The visitors play a bit part in this selection as the newly-promoted side have looked every inch the newbies to the division by losing twice on the road in three games, leaking nine goals already – an average of three goals per game! They’ve only scored twice during that run too so they’re looking the weak side that they are far too early in Serie A to possibly survive the drop, in my opinion., which should be evident again tonight.
Although I have little faith in Guarani’s attack, odds of 6/5 on them to beat an inferior side that cannot defend are too generous so I have to toss my hat into the ring with that selection today!
Verdict: Guarani to win at 6/5.
Fyn vs Vejle – home win at 13/10.
The Danes have a funny habit of playing far better football with nothing to play for and few sides are playing better with less cause than Fyn are currently with four wins in five games. Fyn have actually won seven out of their last eight games but the run initially began when Fyn required points to climb away from the drop zone. However, it doesn’t appear that Fyn have been told that they’re now safe from relegation as they continue to play as if their lives depend upon each game! Fyn concede too many goals in general by they score more than enough goals to compensate for that little misdemeanor of theirs as their record of late indicates all too clearly. Fyn have notched up seven goals in their last two games alone so they’re certainly a threat and are on a massive momentum drive at the moment so underestimating them would be foolish, in my opinion.
I’m a little concerned with this selection purely because I rate Vejle as a good side. They’ve had a bad season and they don’t score enough goals but I rate them as a good side beneath that because that’s what they are! Vejle haven’t won in any of their last nine games in all competitions, however, and they have nothing left to play for so they’re unlikely to turn up today. Admittedly, neither side has anything to play for here but there’s a difference between entering this game on the back of seven wins in eight games and entering this game without remembering what a win feels like so you have to feel that Fyn can take three points today.
I’m hoping that Vejle don’t simply shut Fyn out today with their resilient defence but the hosts are scoring so many goals at the moment that you have to feel they can break through. Although I rate the visitors as the better side, everything else is favouring the hosts and at odds of 13/10 the home win has to be worth a punt today.
Verdict: Fyn to win at 13/10.
Independiente vs Macara Ambato – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
These odds just don’t make sense. Newly-promoted Independiente just about average scoring over a goal per home game and visitors Macara Ambato average conceding just over a goal per away game without even scoring a goal per away game on average. Independiente have drawn five out of eight home games and Macara have only lost four out of eight away games this season so we look set for a mind-numbingly boring, low-scoring draw here. I was tempted to take the draw but I’ve evaded the risk factor in favour of some unbelievably good odds. Ecuador is notorious for being an unders league and this is the perfect under 2.5 goals game so why it’s at such generous odds I’ll never know. Either way, this selection has to be worth a shot tonight!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Emelec Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca – home win at 5/6.
Since appointing a new manager earlier this season, Emelec have switched dramatically from the atypical defensive Ecuadorian side into a samba-esque attacking side and it’s paid great dividends for them en mass, particularly at home. Third in the table already, Emelec have won five out of eight home games in Primera A, drawing the other three games whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game. Emelec have only conceded in one of their last four games, which was ironically against tonight’s opponents, so Emelec are generally quite assured defensively. Although Cuenca won the game in Guayaquil a few weeks ago, Deportivo have it all to do tonight because they don’t travel well whatsoever – not just this season, but any season. Deportivo have only won once in eight away games this season, losing three times along the way. They average scoring approximately 1.5 goals per away game and have scored just six goals in eight away games so it’s easy to see why they struggle on the road. It’s a shame because Deportivo are generally a good side but their away form consistently lets them down. Look at their last away game, for example – they were crushed 3-0 by a mediocre Espoli Cayambe, a side that had lost their last four home games consecutively without scoring a goal prior to that encounter. Deportivo Cuenca remind me a little of Real Mallorca in the sense that they’re a totally different side away from home in comparison to their home form. Ultimately, I think the money has to be in backing the home win tonight for a strong Emelec side at home against a consistently disappointing Deportivo Cuenca away side. Odds of 5/6 on this selection aren’t the best around but still represent some value in my opinion.
Verdict: Emelec Guayaquil to win at 5/6.
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Inter Turku – home win at 7/5.
I can’t possibly give a good reason to back JJK to win this game because they’re an inferior side and have been poor at home this season. My logic behind backing them today is restricted solely to their tough, combative tactics that make them a difficult side to play against if your side isn’t in-form at the time. Basically, they’re a slightly better version of AC Oulu, in my opinion, and we all saw the problems that AC Oulu caused in Turku last match against Inter, eventually winning the game 2-0. Suffice to say that my reasoning behind supporting JJK for this game is a little loose. However, what I’d counter that with is the fact that Inter Turku are in complete freefall and they’re showing no signs of slowing down. Inter have real problems when in this form because they don’t score enough goals when they’re in-form, let alone out of it! As a result, their defence is experiencing more pressure and thus are conceding more and Inter’s generally composed football is now in disarray with heads dropping all over the team. Inter Turku have lost four out of their last five Veikkausliiga games and drew the other game so they’ve got real problems currently. Inter have leaked a horrendous eleven goals during those five games and any side defending like that will give even the most dubious of sides chances to score goals which is partially what I’m relying upon today.
I’ll be a bit a concerned if Inter take the lead (somehow!) in this game because their old swagger may return and they’ll simply keep the ball. However, an early JJK goal could really set the hosts going and I’d then envision a home win, which is exactly what happened here last season. Either way, backing JJK to win this game at 7/5 should have some value due to the massive problems of Inter Turku at the moment.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win at 7/5.
UMF Grindavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar – away win at 15/8.
The bookies have surely made one hell of a cock-up here! I know IBV aren’t as good as their form suggests they are but momentum is a powerful factor that is very much stupid to overlook. Grindavik have lost all five Urvalsdeild games this season so why the bookies are placing them as favourites for this game is utterly beyond me! They’ve lost five games because they’ve scored just two goals along the way. Well, conceding eleven goals along the way certainly hasn’t helped but even so – Grindavik have an awful lot of problems and I don’t fancy their chances of beating anyone in the division currently, especially an in-form IBV! IBV have done well on the road this season with just one defeat in four games, winning twice along the way, a run which included an impressive win in Hafnarfjordur against reigning champions FH. IBV are unbeaten in four consecutive Urvalsdeild games too, winning their last two away games consecutively during that run, so it’s fair to say that IBV are well-placed to do some damage today.
IBV are marginally better than Grindavik but with the barrage of issues facing the hosts and the form guide supporting the visitors, you have to question the odds shown on this game. IBV don’t score enough goals as a rule and concede a bit too easily but they’re still great value to win at 15/8 against what is unequivocally the worst side in the Urvalsdeild currently.
Verdict: IBV Vestmannaeyjar to win at 15/8.
Accumulator fodder:
Santos, AB Copenhagen, Naestved, Rosenborg BK, Odd Grenland Skien, Valerenga Oslo, Ranheim, Tampines Rovers, Home United.
Recommended bets:
Naestved, Ranheim, and AB Copenhagen at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Brazilian Serie A:
Sao Paulo vs Gremio (6) 1-0
Santos vs Vasco da Gama (8) -1.75 handicap
Botafogo vs Corinthians (5) 1-1
Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara (6) 1-1
Internacional vs Palmeiras (7) 2-0
Guarani vs Gremio Prudente (7) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Goianiense vs Cruzeiro (5) 0-1
Danish 1st Division:
Frem vs Braband (6)
Thisted vs Hvidovre (4) draw no bet
AB Copenhagen vs Roskilde (9)
Naestved vs Skive (8)
Lyngby vs Kolding (7)
Fyn vs Vejle (6) under 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Independiente vs Macara Ambato (6) under 2.5 goals
Olmedo Riobamba vs Universidad Catolica (6) 1-0
Espoli Cayambe vs Liga de Quito (5) 0-1
El Nacional Quito vs Manta (6) under 2.5 goals
Emelec Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 0-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Inter Turku (6) 2-1
HJK Helsinki vs Jaro Pietarsaari (7) over 2.5 goals
TPS Turku vs IFK Mariehamn (7) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs RoPS Rovaniemi (5) under 2.5 goals
OPS Oulu vs Jippo Joensuu (5)
TPV Tampere vs Espoo (4)
MP Mikkeli vs Viikingit Helsinki (5)
PK-35 Helsinki vs KPV Kokkola (6)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
UMF Grindavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (6) 0-1
Selfoss vs Fram Reykjavik (7) 1-2
International Friendly:
Nigeria vs North Korea (6) 1-1 (played in South Africa)
Latvian Virsliga:
Jelgava vs Jauniba (7) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Stabaek (7) 1-2
Rosenborg BK vs Kongsvinger (9) 2-0
Molde FK vs Lillestrom (6) 0-0
Valerenga Oslo vs Haugesund (8) over 2.5 goals
Odd Grenland Skien vs Honefoss (8) ovef 2.5 goals
Brann Bergen vs Aalesunds (4) 0-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Ranheim vs Strommen (8)
Follo vs Moss (4)
Bryne vs Nybergsund (7) over 2.5 goals
Alta vs Lyn Oslo (6)
Tromsdalen vs Mjondalen (5)
Sogndal vs Lov-Ham Bergen (7) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Beijing Guoan (8) 2-0
Home United vs Woodlands Wellington (8) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Cordoba (5)
Real Union Club de Irun vs Levante (6)
Cartagena vs Hercules Alicante (6) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!