Netherlands vs Brazil
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup encounter between Netherlands and Brazil. This game features two sides that I tipped pre-World Cup to have a chance of winning it although to be honest, neither have played as well as I’d anticipated, which may be down to my high expectations or their lessened performances – perhaps even both.
Netherlands have a team that I like and a manager I respect, which is naturally a good combination. I still feel that they’ve got another gear to go to but I wonder if they’ve left it a little late to be entering that gear as they face an in-form Brazil side today. Nonetheless, the efficient way in which they’ve performed so far has been impressive so I’ll give them the respect that they deserve. I cannot hide my fears over their unprotected and frankly weak defence but their attacking power is phenomental, particularly with the rejuvenated winger Robben back in town. Netherlands have occasionally over-relied upon their flair players in this tournament, which does concern me a little, and Van Persie hasn’t been anywhere near as potent as I’d hoped but they form a formidable attack nonetheless. Say what you like about Netherlands’ fairly unconvincing displays thus far – they’ve won every game by taking their chances and are a very able side so don’t underestimate them today.
Brazil have somehow strolled to this point of the World Cup without really impressing me. I daresay I’m being pedantic as everyone else is fawning over them but in every game I’ve seen them play, I’ve seen them either easily restrained or outplayed for a good portion of the game. I can only respect their immense ability to score a goal from nowhere, naturally, but I just don’t rate them as a side yet. The potential is there but I can’t work out if it’s Dunga’s defensive tactics or whether Brazil bizarrely lack flair for the first time ever that hinders them from joining the halls of the greats from their past. Brazil are favourites for this game and I can accept that although I think the odds on them are too short, particularly when they only have two genuinely creative players in their side – Kaka and Elano – and Elano is injured for this game. However, I expect a good showing from Brazil today so we should see a very good game.
What to make of this game? One outcome here I can see is goals because neither side has defended well in my eyes and both are susceptible to pace so I can see a hefty scoreline here. I’m not tempted enough by the odds to back a winner in ninety minutes here so good luck if you do – I certainly won’t be. The Brazilians are too short and the Dutch are too long but it won’t take much to tip the scale today. I’m only relatively tempted to lay the Brazilians over ninety minutes because odds of 4/5 for the Netherlands to not lose against anyone is good value in my eyes.
Aside from the above, not much else intrigues me, barring my main bet of there being over 2.5 goals in this game at evens. There should be lots of interesting duals all over the park but the key one for me is how well Van Bommel deals with Kaka. If he holds him then Netherlands have an excellent chance; if not then they have problems. Van Persie has to be smart and quick against Lucio and Juan. Robben will more key than ever as he faces weak-link Bastos – he’s no damn full-back! Brazil’s attacks down the flanks will have a lot of joy as Van Bronckhorst is slow and Van Der Wiel is susceptible in defence. Neat interplay between Robinho and Fabiano will do a lot of damage as the Dutch offside trap is woeful at the moment. Similarly, the driving runs of Van Der Vaart and Sneijder should have the Brazilians reeling as they don’t like being attacked through the middle.
All in all, we should see a really fascinating game between these two sides today. As I touched upon before, there are a lot of interesting battles today and I expect a lot of goals to be scored as a result. I don’t like the idea of backing a winner here at unfriendly odds so I’ll only recommend taking over 2.5 goals at evens for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Uruguay vs Ghana – both teams to score at 11/10.
I was quite happy to back Uruguay to win this game in ninety minutes until two things happened. The first thing that went wrong was Tabarez deciding to name his starting line-up nearly three days in advance, which I am a massive hater of, and the second was that the odds dropped below evens. Now, I like Oscar Tabarez – he’s a good manager and he’s done very well with Uruguay this year but that decision he’s made is beyond foolish. He’s about to lead his side into a game where the entire continent is going against you, which already adds pressure to the team, but he’s now done so whilst giving the Ghanaians nearly three days to prepare for them! Add that to the pressure of being favourites for this game and we have a massively under-pressure Uruguay and I really don’t like that idea because Uruguay play their best football as a laid-back side that take the game in their stride and score at will. I’m now concerned for them, to be blunt. I love the attacking triangle of Cavani, Forlan, and Suarez – they’re lethal together – and I love the tenacity of Perez in the middle (who was outstanding against South Korea), not to mention the persistent support of both Fucile and Pereira from the full-back positions. Uruguay are only missing Godin in defence for this game and he’ll be replaced by Victorino so Uruguay still look solid, although not quite as much defensively. However, for all of Uruguay’s talents, I cannot back them at less than evens in a World Cup Quarter-Final on foreign soil that suits their opponents better when they’re missing a good defender and are under massive pressure so good luck if you do.
Ghana have surprised me by getting this far and I admire their passion and tenacity that was necessary for them to get here. I’d be lying if I said that they were good enough to be here, however, because they’re not. They scored two against USA in the last round thanks to abject defending and the unbelievable tenacity of Asamoah Gyan. They restrained USA quite well thanks to a surprisingly good display from erratic goalkeeper Kingston, which was also aided by inept American attacking (barring Clint Dempsey’s best efforts). Ghana will have taken great confidence from that game and the support of the continent is now behind them so writing them off would be foolish. However, that said, Ghana do miss defender Jonathan Mensah and midfielder Andre Ayew, who was man of the match against USA, so Ghana do have a couple of problems ahead of this game. Muntari is set to deputise and whereas I rate his overall ability, it should also be noted that he’s as petulant as hell and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t turn up for this game at all. Ghana’s rhythm may be interrupted by their losses much moreso than well-organised Uruguay so I still think they’ll end up exiting the tournament against a strong Uruguay side today. Ghana have a good coach who has prepared them well defensively but there’s only so much that Rajevic can actually do – Ghana still aren’t that good at the back and Uruguay should exploit that today.
Bluntly – I’m not very happy with backing Uruguay at such short odds. A lot of people are but I have no interest in doing so whilst they’re at those odds. Similarly, Ghana are too short for me to be interested in them because they’re not that good, they’re missing players, they don’t score enough chances (i.e. the ones that aren’t gifted to them), they’re playing a strong defensive unit, and they’re basically underdogs as a result, and rightfully so. I think Uruguay will have a lot of fun with this Ghanaian defence but one thing that Uruguay hate, despite being well-organised defensively, is pressure and pace combined. They may have let South Korea play in the previous round but the Koreans caused them a lot of problems that the Ghanaians can emulate today so don’t be too sure of a Uruguayan win in ninety minutes here.
I do ultimately believe that Uruguay will progress as they’re more composed in general, they’ve got better players overall, and they’ve got more match-winners, basically. However, my favourite bet for today is both sides to score at 11/10. Ghana can’t defend too well and Uruguay always find a way to score. My concern is whether Ghana take the chances that they’ll inevitably have with such a large support behind them but I’ll take a risk on them doing so, particularly as Uruguay are missing Godin and also knowing that they don’t react well to constant pressure and pace, which are two things Ghana will always bring to their games.
There are a few other bets that I like for this game and they’re listed below:
Uruguay to score the first goal at 4/5.
Uruguay to score in both halves at 3/1.
Game to be won by a single goal at 5/4.
I think this game should be interesting, basically, but it may not be as profitable or as easy as most people expect. Uruguay have got a real battle here because of the support Ghana now has and because Tabarez showed idiocy by naming his starting line-up far too early. I’d approach this game with massive caution and wouldn’t touch the Uruguay win at below evens – it’s just not worth it. I envision a close and feisty game but my main bet remains both sides to score at 11/10.
Incidentally, for those of you that follow in-play markets – don’t jump all over Uruguay if Ghana somehow take the lead – this side hasn’t trailed in any of their games in the World Cup so it remains to be seen how they would deal with that scenario as they have to leave their comfort zone of tight marking and low defensive lines, which could be very dangerous indeed for the South Americans.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 11/10.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Uruguay vs Ghana (6) 2-1
Netherlands vs Brazil (5) 2-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Olmedo Riobamba (5) 0-0
Manta vs Independiente (4) 1-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
VPS Vaasa vs AC Oulu (6) 1-1
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Sporting Fingal (7) 1-0
Drogheda United vs UCD (7) 1-1
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers (6) 0-0
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Galway United (7) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Ekranas Panevezys (8) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Beijing Guoan (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!