Nimes vs Bastia
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ligue 2 encounter between Nimes and Bastia. Nimes have had a good season so far and currently occupy sixth place in the table. Visitors Bastia are having a nightmare of a season, however, and currently occupy bottom place in Ligue 2.
Nimes have won three out of their last five games so they carry a significant level of momentum into this game. They’ve won four out of nine home games this season, which isn’t great, but have only been beaten once so they do make their home games count. Nimes have won their last two home games consecutively and have scored six goals in their last four Ligue 2 games, which shows that they are capable of scoring goals when they’re in the mood.
Visitors Bastia aren’t bottom of the league for no reason – they simply don’t score away goals. Bastia have played ten away games this season, they’ve lost nine and drawn once. They’ve conceded less away goals than the majority of the division, amazingly, but their record of a paltry two away goals scored all season shows the clear reasoning behind Bastia’s misfortune on the road. Bastia have lost four out of their last five games and average conceding two goals per away game for their last three away games, all of which they’ve lost.
With a severe loss of momentum and a complete lack of potency on the road, it’s hard to see Bastia emerging with anything but a defeat from this game as an in-form Nimes looks to take three points to further their recent impressive form. I don’t rate Nimes very highly, to be honest, but there’s more than enough in their favour today to make the home win a good value bet today.
Verdict: Nimes to win at 5/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Adelaide United vs Perth Glory – home win at 11/10.
Hosts Adelaide United are bottom of the A-League currently but there’s frankly not a big quality gap in a league where the points gap between top and bottom is merely seventeen points so I wouldn’t read excessively into this statistic. In fact, Adelaide were the runners-up in last year’s A-League, just to further my point! Adelaide have actually only lost once in their last five games, which isn’t bad, all things considered. Adelaide’s problem has been scoring goals, something they’re just not doing enough with just four goals scored in their last five games. When you consider that the average game shows both sides scoring goals, you can immediately see what Adelaide have been drawing most of their games lately. Don’t get me wrong – Adelaide haven’t been great at home this season with just three wins in twelve games, something which is again attributed to not enough goals being scored. However, today they’ll have a chance to further their growing momentum as they take on a leaky Perth Glory defence and they’ve got the home advantage to help them do it.
Naturally, the above isn’t enough to back a home win. However, when you take into account that Perth Glory have lost eight out of twelve away games this season, that bet begins to look an awful lot more tempting, doesn’t it? Only North Queensland Fury have conceded more away goals than Perth Glory have this season with today’s visitors averaging nearly two goals conceded per game. Perth Glory are also suffering on the momentum front with three defeats in their last five games, winning just once along the way. Perth Glory have lost their last three away games and have averaged conceding three goals per away game along the way, managing to score just two goals. With that kind of record in mind, it’s hard to see Perth Glory taking anything from this game.
Make no mistake here – this will be a very tight game between two sides that don’t know how to play their best football anywhere near as much as they’d like. However, Adelaide are at least a capable side and have something to work with. Their goal-shy performances should be eased today by a poor Perth Glory defence and with the visitors lacking in momentum too, I think it’s worth a cheeky punt on the home win today.
Verdict: Adelaide United to win at 11/10.
Manchester City vs Manchester United – home win at 7/5.
I can’t begin to tell you all how it pains me to bet against my own team in a derby but that’s water under the bridge; this is simply business.
Manchester City have started life under Roberto Mancini brightly and have finally found their flair side, something they’ve been missing this season. Ironically, it’s not the expensive Robinho who is producing it but the free signing Carlos Tevez with assistance from pacey “wingers” Martin Petrov and Craig Bellamy. I really don’t think Roberto Mancini is a particularly good manager; I think the run of games that Manchester City have will make him out to be God by February, however. Nonetheless, City are playing good football and they’re scoring goals, which helps to take attention away from their atrocious defending. City may have been torn apart by a rampant Everton at weekend but City always get themselves up and motivated for derbies because they’re the smaller club, they have less to play for in a season. City also have the additional motivation of being within the finishing line of this trophy, something that City have been without since 1976. Bluntly – City need to win this trophy, they’re playing well, and they’ve got more than enough motivation to win this game.
My beloved Manchester United have been woeful this season. There’s no flair, little pace to their play, and frankly look a shambles in defence. Ferguson thinks we don’t need to buy – I disagree. We need two flair players – one in attack and one on the flank. However, that’s not what bothers me ahead of this game tonight; it’s the defence that does. I don’t know if Ferguson is going to field his half-kids/half-experienced players line-up for this game or actually go for the trophy. Regardless of this fact, United have been shoddy in defence and will almost certainly concede in this game. Gary Neville is being torn apart at right-back nowadays and if he plays then I would stick a large wager on City because Petrov and/or Bellamy will rip him apart. Vidic and Ferdinand are rumoured to be starting in this game, which may assist United long-term but neither of them are fit and will have a very tough time tonight. Returning to the attackers, however – despite Rooney’s goals this season he’s simply not playing well. When he plays well, United win – when he doesn’t, we rarely win.
However, this is digressing somewhat; I could talk about United’s problems all day but that’s irrelevant. The fact is that Manchester City are far better placed to win this game and have better momentum and motivation. With the addition of quality to their line-up, something they’ve not been able to boast for many years now, you have to feel that they’re a good bet to win this game at 7/5.
Verdict: Manchester City to win at 7/5.
Recommended bet – My favourite bet today is a four-team accumulator containing Swindon Town, Charlton Athletic, Huddersfield Town, and PSV Eindhoven at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
African Nations:
Burkina Faso vs Ghana (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Perth Glory (5) 1-0
English Championship:
Blackpool vs Sheffield Wednesday (4)
English League One:
Stockport County vs Swindon Town (8)
Huddersfield Town vs Bristol Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Yeovil Town (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Hartlepool United (8)
English League Two:
Rotherham United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
Bury vs Bradford City (7)
Port Vale vs Burton Albion (6)
Hereford United vs Crewe Alexandra (6)
Aldershot Town vs Rochdale (5)
English FA Cup:
Brentford vs Doncaster Rovers (6) 1-0
Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham (4) 2-1
Notts County vs Forest Green Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Cardiff City vs Bristol City (7) 2-1
English League Cup:
Manchester City vs Manchester United (6) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Saint-Etienne vs Stade Rennais (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Chateauroux vs Angers SCO (5)
Nimes vs Bastia (7)
Laval vs Clermont Foot (6)
Guingamp vs Istres (6)
AC Ajaccio vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
Arles vs Strasbourg (4)
Metz vs Brest (6) over 2.5 goals
Dijon FCO vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6)
Nantes vs Vannes OC (6)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Roda JC Kerkrade vs PSV Eindhoven (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!