Novara vs Vicenza
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie B encounter in Italy between Novara and Vicenza. This game in northern Italy sees newly-promoted Novara somewhat surprisingly leading the Serie B table whereas more experienced Serie B opponents Vicenza linger somewhat predictably mid-table.
I’ve been wanting to back Novara at home for a while in Serie B but haven’t had the right amount of ammunition to do so. However, that changes today as the hosts have now won seven out of ten Serie B games whilst averaging scoring two goals per game so Novara are certainly in-form. They’ve won all four home games and average scoring over two goals per game in their home encounters whilst conceding once every two home games on average. Therefore, potency definitely sides with the hosts, as does momentum with three consecutive wins leading them into this game. However, the reason I’ve wanted to back Novara at home for a while is because they have an advantage that nobody else in the top two tiers of Italian football currently has – artificial turf. I’d not label Novara as one of the better footballing sides in the division – I think they fall short in comparison to the likes of Siena, Atalanta Bergamo, Livorno, and possibly even Padova this year. However, artificial turf gives them a big advantage at home as both Livorno and Atalanta have discovered during recent defeats here. Bertrani and Gonzalez are looking immense in attack for Novara and with everything favouring the hosts for this game, I find it hard to go against them tonight.
I wouldn’t write Vicenza off entirely for this game, however. They’re an experienced enough side at being hard to beat in this division and usually comfortably earn their mid-table placing. They’re very much the atypical Italian home team with few sides winning at Vicenza but with very few wins coming for Vicenza on the road. In each of their last two seasons, Vicenza have lost ten out of twenty-one away games so their record of four defeats in five away games so far this season is hardly surprising although I would point out that Vicenza have battled hard and played quite well in at least one of those games so the statistic may not be completely fair on tonight’s visitors. Nonetheless, Vicenza’s average of conceding two goals per away game whilst travelling to face a potent and in-form host is surely going to handicap the visitors tonight because although Novara aren’t a great side, they’re certainly riding the crest of a wave at the moment and that should be enough to see Vicenza overrun here. My main problem with Vicenza is that I don’t see where their goals are coming from on a consistent basis and if they don’t address that tonight against newcomers Novara then they really should be swept aside rather easily.
I’d normally avoid a home win at these odds in Serie B but with momentum, potency, home advantage, and an artificial turf favouring the hosts against a traditionally poor-travelling Vicenza side, the odds of 4/5 look decent enough to take a chance on tonight.
Verdict: Novara to win at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Skonto Riga vs Daugava Daugavpils – under 2.5 goals at 6/4.
These odds look too good to be true! Skonto Riga are the better of the two sides, I grant you, but they’re not worthy of the odds on show here. Again, the bookies have drastically underestimated the role of Daugava Daugavpils in the Virsliga hierachy as they’re really not an easy side to beat. Daugava lack the flair players that Skonto can boast i.e. Junior, Mingazov but they lack nothing in the way of tactics.
There are only two sides in the Virsliga that are better than Daugava – FK Ventspils and Skonto Riga respectively. Liepajas Metalurgs are good enough to give them a game but I rate the two about par. Consider that Daugava’s last two Virsliga games were away against Liepajas Metalurgs and at home to FK Ventspils and that Daugava drew the first game 0-0 and lost the second 0-1. Not a particularly condemning record for a side that is supposedly vastly inferior, if you believe the bookies’ odds. There’s a damn good reason that Daugava have only lost three times this season and it’s because they’re a good side! The last side to beat Daugava before Ventspils was ironically their opponents today, Skonto Riga, in a 1-0 defeat, and that came from a last minute spot-kick from pacey Pereplotkins.
It’s no coincidence that three out of the last four games between these two sides has gone under 2.5 goals. Skonto are a good side and do have more in their arsenal than Daugava but Daugava are a rock-solid defensive unit and I’ll be surprised to see them concede heavily here. I think Skonto should edge it but I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market for this one. I live in fear that Daugava will poach a goal as Skonto Riga need to win this game to keep the gap between themselves and FK Ventspils. However, given that Daugava only just average scoring over a goal per Virsliga game and that they tend to focus entirely on stopping other sides from playing football rather than attacking, I don’t think we’ll see them shatter the Skonto Riga momentum too much at the moment.
Like I said earlier, I would skip the 1×2 market as I see little value although I must confess that I’m tempted to lay Skonto. Nonetheless, I think it’s a far safer and thus more value-worthy bet to call under 2.5 goals as Daugava never get annihlated due to their strong defence and Skonto never having an easy ride against them either at home or away.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Teplice, Bohemians, Sparta Rotterdam, RKC Waalwijk, Poli Timisoara, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Novara, Teplice, and The New Saints at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (5) 1-0
Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix (7) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Lustenau vs Admira Wacker (6) over 2.5 goals
First Vienna vs St.Polten (6) both sides to score
Grodig vs SCR Altach (6)
WAC/St.Andra vs Lustenau (5)
Gratkorn vs Hartberg (4)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk vs Racing Genk (6) 1-2
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs La Equidad Bogota (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Zadar (6) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Teplice vs Hradec Kralove (8) 2-0
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs HB Koge (5) draw no bet
English Championship:
Bristol City vs Queens Park Rangers (6)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Tours (6) under 2.5 goals
Stade Lavallois vs Dijon FCO (7) under 2.5 goals
Le Mans vs Istres (6)
Metz vs Angers SCO (4)
Nantes vs Chateauroux (5) under 2.5 goals
Reims vs Grenoble Foot (3) draw no bet
Troyes vs Clermont Foot (6)
Vannes OC vs Boulogne (7)
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Greuther Furth (7) under 2.5 goals
Augsburg vs Union Berlin (6)
Osnabruck vs Energie Cottbus (3) draw no bet
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Paksi SE vs Gyori ETO FC (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Vasas Budapest (6) over 2.5 goals
International Friendly:
Egpyt vs Botswana (7) under 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Sporting Fingal (6) 1-1
Galway United vs Bohemians (8) 1-2
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Bray Wanderers (7) 2-1
UCD vs Sligo Rovers (5) 1-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United (6) 1-0
Italian Serie B:
Novara vs Vicenza (7)
Latvian Virsliga:
Skonto Riga vs Daugava Daugavpils (6) under 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs San Luis (5) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda vs Roda JC Kerkrade (5) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs Dordrecht ’90 (4) over 2.5 goals
Helmond Sport vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Emmen (8)
Telstar vs Eindhoven (6)
RKC Waalwijk vs Almere City (8)
Veendam vs Den Bosch (5)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Zwolle (6) draw no bet
Go Ahead Eagles vs MVV Maastricht (6)
Peruvian Primera Division:
Total Chalaco vs Universidad San Martin (6) 0-1
Alianza Lima vs Inti Gas (6) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw (4) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 0-0
Romanian Liga:
Victoria Branesti vs Brasov (5) 1-1
Poli Timisoara vs Universitatea Cluj (8) over 2.5 goals
Gloria Bistrita vs Dinamo Bucharest (5) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Home United (5) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Villarreal II (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Stade Nyonnais (6)
FC Schaffhausen vs Wohlen (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Karakbukspor vs Eskisehirspor (6) 2-1
Sivasspor vs Bucaspor (5) 1-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Obolon Kiev vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town (6) 1-0
Prestatyn Town vs The New Saints (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!