Oriente Petrolero vs Universidad de Chile
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Sudamericana game in Bolivia between Oriente Petrolero and Universidad de Chile. With thetie finely poised following a surprise 2-2 draw in Chile, we look set to have a good and very much “samba” game between these two sides tonight!
This is Oriente Petrolero’s first ever experience on the continent and they’ve handled themselves well thus far, claiming an extremely impressive 2-2 draw in the first leg of this tie. Universidad are a very strong side, especially at home, so it surprised me an awful lot when a frankly inferior side managed to take something from a trip there. That in itself is a warning that Oriente Petrolero are very serious about this competition so I’ll give them the respect that they’ve earned for tonight’s games. Domestically, Oriente Petrolero have only lost twice in twenty consecutive home games and those games were against bitter rivals Blooming Santa Cruz and Aurora Cochabamba, two of the more successful Bolivian sides nowadays so it’s far from a bad record. Indeed, Oriente Petrolero have won fifteen of those games and haven’t actually lost at home to anyone but Blooming and Aurora since February 2009, which I think is pretty damn impressive. This side were once nobodies; they clearly have no intention of letting that remain the case for much longer. They’re not shy with their cash either, signing the likes of Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez from Atenas, Argentinian defender Alejandro Schiapparelli from Bolivar La Paz, and Paraguayan midfielder Francisco Benitez from Real Mamore in a bid to boost their squad and its worked wonders with Oriente Petrolero rapidly ascending through Bolivian ranks to being one of the better sides in the country. Promising striker Alcides Pena has linked up well with Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez with both players scoring goals for fun this season and it’ll be interesting to see how they fare at home to an experienced continental opponent tonight if Pena is ruled fit enough to play. Midfielder Joselito Vaca will be key for Oriente Petrolero as he’s one of the few players they have to have played outside South America and thus has key experience for the side. The other key player in that aspect is Saucedo, who isn’t long back from a spell with Chernomorets Odessa. He openly confessed to being happy there but the Ukrainian side opted not to sign him so he returned to Oriente Petrolero. Argentinian manager Gustavo Quintero made a brave move to rest players at Real Mamore last match by sending a second string but he was left without option after Real Mamore refused Oriente Petrolero’s proposal to move the game. As a result, he does have a full-strength side to select from tonight and I fancy them as a result with such a good set of players at their disposal, not to mention with the game being played at approximately 1,500 metres above sea level.
I’m a big advocate of the tenacious Universidad de Chile but it almost looks like their Copa Libertadores Semi-Final defeat against Mexican outfit Guadalajara has impacted them mentally because they looked rather abject in the first leg of this tie. Domestically, they’re back to basics, but on the continent they appear a little more hesitant than they were previously. Universidad are a side that I always associate tenacity and belief with and yet the side lacked both in their usual doses in the first leg so I’m not sure how they’re planning to progress tonight. Royas and midfield general Iturra were rested in their last game at home to Santiago Wanderers but an alarming number of Universidad’s first string played in that game, which confirms my opinion that Universidad are being a little cocky and may become complacent as a result. Their manager Gerardo Pelusso has already stated his confidence at qualifying for the next round despite playing a difficult game at high altitude as the club have never lost outside Chile. Either he’s stupid or he meant this year because Universidad certainly have lost outside of Chile; just not since 2009. They’re a very experienced side, Universidad, and it takes a lot for me to against them in any continental competition as a result. They really are a very good side and they travel a lot better than most continental sides. However, with most of their first team in action just a few days ago and now facing a trip to a high altitude venue, I can’t see them doing as well here as their manager seems to think they will. Universidad have won in Bolivia before but Oriente Petrolero is something of an “unknown” away game as they’ve never played in this competition before and in my experience, that’s never a good thing to take lightly. The hosts obviously have some money behind them and they’re creating a very strong squad, not to mention they seem more determined than Universidad tonight to qualify for the latter stages of the competition so I do fear for the Chilean side tonight.
This game should be a lot closer than most games between Bolivian sides and their respective opponents in continental competition because the altitude favours the hosts and Oriente Petrolero actually bring some quality into this game, unlike their Bolivian counterparts. Universidad are a very strong side but this is a tough game for them, particularly as they have to attack and this is no height to be excessively running around or tiredness and even sickness can kick in after a while. As weak as Bolivian sides are in general when compared to the remainder of South America, they have a strong home advantage in general that often serves them well so they’re not to be underestimated here. Ultimately, I just don’t see Oriente Petrolero losing this game tonight. I can accept a draw but for a side to win in Bolivia, they have to play very well indeed and I just don’t think Universidad have prepared well enough to do so, especially when you consider the measures that the hosts have taken to prepare for this game. Therefore, my recommendation is to take the home win with draw no bet tonight with the hope that the arising Bolivian side fulfills their potential and plays a good tactical game to incorporate their altitude advantage into their strategy.
Either way, let’s hope this game ends much better for the hosts than their last game did a few days ago at Real Mamore. They lost the game 3-2 with a second-string, as you’d expect, but the referee was bombarded with water bottles at the end of the game by the home fans because they were unhappy with his display and he was escorted off the premises with police protection. That kind of activity in this game would no doubt see Oriente Petrolero expelled from the competition so let’s pray they have more sense than their Bolivian counterparts did last match!
Verdict: Oriente Petrolero to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
The only other game I like today is:
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol – home win at evens.
Barcelona Guayaquil enter this game on the back of a very impressive 1-0 win at El Nacional Quito so will understandably bring some momentum into this game. They have the advantage over Penarol of being mid-season domestically and having already played two games in this competition against Peru’s Universidad Cesar Vallejo, impressively winning both in Peru and in Ecuador with apparent ease. They miss De Jesus in defence for this game following his intelligent dismissal at the end of their home encounter with Universidad Cesar Vallejo and that is a blow for them. However, the goals of Paraguayan striker Samudio should give their opponents more to think about in their own defence rather than making holes in the Barcelona defence. Manager Llop has named the following squad for the home game with Penarol:
Banguera, Viteri, Cevallos, Perlaza, Hurtado, Nazareno, Hidalgo, Oyola, Noir, Rodriguez, Bolanos, Prette, Samudio, Palacios, Garces, Leon, Montenegro, Anagono, Valdivieso.
As I touched upon earlier – Barcelona are only missing De Jesus and boast a full squad aside from that so are well-placed to make their presence felt tonight. Liga de Quito have ensured that Ecuador has become a terrifying place to visit over the past few years and Deportivo Quito have done their best to enhance that reputation, not to mention Barcelona’s bitter rivals Emelec Guayaquil. Barcelona now have their long overdue chance to make themselves heard and with match fitness and home advantage favouring them, not to mention high altitude, you have to favour the hosts tonight.
Much like hosts Barcelona, Penarol are a big side in their respective country. Also much like Barcelona, they’ve been ousted from continental competition for far too long and at least half the country of Uruguay is excited to see them back in action. However, they’re going to have some problems tonight, in my opinion. The first one is that they’ve not played a competitive game of football in approximately three months. To go to Ecuador of all places with that lack of match practice and to get a result is a tad ludicrous, in my humble opinion – a trip to Ecuador should never be taken lightly. Penarol have their two domestic games with Mirimar Misiones and Montevideo Wanderers postponed as they frolicked around with Real Madrid in a friendly and generally pissed around awaiting this fixture, which again is a bad move! I have an awful lot of respect for Penarol as a club with their proud history and relentless support. However, I don’t feel they’ve prepared anywhere near well enough for this game and it really could come back to bite them in the ass tonight. They’ve brought both of their strike duo Martinuccio and Ramis to Ecuador, although I doubt they’ll both start. They’ve brought former Internazionale midfielder/striker Antonio Pacheco to Ecuador, which is a massive boost for Penarol as he’s their best and arguably most experienced player. This whole Penarol squad has a lot of talent in both youth and experience but in a tough venue like the Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo at high altitude, I doubt we’ll get chance to see them shine, particularly with no competitive match practice to assist them.
Juan Pedro Damiani has named the below squad to take to Ecuador:
Sosa, Hernandez, Alcoba, G.Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Albin, Corujo, Sosa, Pacheco, Alonso, Palacios, Estoyanoff, Martinuccio, Domingo, Rios, Alvez, Collazo, Aguirregaray, D.Rodriguez, Ramis.
As you can see, Penarol take a very strong squad to Barcelona with the notable inclusion of new signing Fabian Estoyanoff, who some of you may recall from his time in Spain with Cadiz, Deportivo La Coruna, and Real Valladolid. Having failed to make it out there, he moved to Panionios in Greece and had a good season before returning back to Uruguay. He’s too good to be playing in Uruguay so he’ll be a valuable acquisition for their squad, I’m sure.
Bluntly; Penarol aren’t short of ability but they are short on match practice and they’re at a very tough venue against a tough side. With that in mind, I really don’t fancy them to do well tonight. I’ve composed a list of the most recent Uruguayan clubs to visit Ecuador in the past two years below so you can see how they generally fare:
2010 – Copa Libertadores – Deportivo Quito 2 Cerro 1
2010 – Copa Libertadores – Deportivo Cuenca 0 Club Nacional de Montevideo 0
2010 – Copa Libertadores – Emelec Guayaquil 1 Cerro 2
2009 – Copa Sudamericana – Liga de Quito 7 River Plate Montevideo 0
2008 – Copa Libertadoes – Deportivo Cuenca 0 Danubio 0
As you can see, Uruguayan clubs rarely win here and tend to be content with a draw. A draw is a possible outcome here and 1/2 on the home win with draw no bet is an acceptable price. However, given Penarol’s lack of match practice, I’m more inclined to go for the straight home win at evens because Barcelona have more than enough in their favour to win this game tonight, especially as they know they’ll struggle in Uruguay in the second leg.
Verdict: Barcelona Guayaquil to win at evens.
Aside from the above, nothing else interests me today because there are few games due to the approaching international fixtures. However, to see my thoughts on the remainder of today’s games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
Oriente Petrolero vs Universidad de Chile (5) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Geylang United (7) 2-1
Woodlands Wellington vs Home United (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!