Parma vs Cagliari
FreeApologies regarding Doxa yesterday, guys. It may be in the past etc. but I cannot tell you how irritated such ridiculous displays make me and undoubtedly cost yourselves.
Incidentally – don’t forget that today is the last day to subscribe to the month’s membership, guys and girls! Visit this page for further information. Our thanks goes out to those who have already generously indicated their support for our cause and we hope to see more of you join up today!
Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Parma and Cagliari. Although neither side are actually in the relegation zone, both are anxiously looking over their shoulders and will have to stay on their toes to ensure survival in Serie A.
Parma bring some excellent momentum into this game following a 1-4 drubbing of Juventus away from home so they’re in good stead for this game. For the first time this season, Parma’s attack looked dangerous as a whole rather than just Crespo carrying them. Giovinco was a constant thorn in the side of his old club Juventus last match as Parma rarely looked out of control in a game that they shouldn’t really have been able to win. Now Parma return to the Ennio Tardini with heads held high, which is where they’ve been strongest this season, losing just once in eight home games in Serie A. Defensively, only Sampdoria have conceded as few at home as Parma have so the hosts are to be taken seriously at the Ennio Tardini. However, their record of three wins in eight home games isn’t flattering and indicates that their problem is in attack with Bojinov failing to deliver what is expected of him. However, as I mentioned earlier Giovinco and Crespo were immense against Juventus last match and should carry that momentum into this game so I do fancy a convincing Parma display here. Marino hasn’t always looked in control of this side this season but before the winter break he appeared to have Parma in decent shape and they’re finally beginning to show it. The only side to win at the Ennio Tardini this season other than Parma is AC Milan with AS Roma, Lazio, and Udinese all failing here so Cagliari have a mammoth task to get a result here, in my view.
Cagliari will feel a little agrieved at having lost at home to AC Milan in Sardinia last match as the game itself was somewhat dour and devoid of chances with a draw being a fair result but up popped Strasser to score the winner with just five minutes remaining so Cagliari may have a bitter taste in their mouths for this game. They won’t relish this trip either, not with just one win in nine Serie A away games leading them into this one. They’ve lost four times already away from home and have also lost three out of their last five visits to Parma in Serie A. Boss Donadoni has confirmed that midfielder Lazzari misses this game through injury, which is a blow, but also star striker Matri is a real doubt for this game and Cagliari would struggle a lot if he wasn’t to be named here. Cagliari are usually well-organised defensively away from home as you’d expect with any Donadoni team but his attack leaves a lot to be desired, something that will no doubt be put to the test again with Matri a doubt and Parma boasting one of the best defensive records in Serie A at home.
With so much momentum favouring Parma and a distinct quality advantage in their favour, I have to side with the home win here. The hosts have three/four good strikers (albeit one or two aren’t playing to their usual standards!) but they’re playing as a team currently, which I personally think is very important. Cagliari aren’t easy to beat because they’re well-organised at the back but they’re not usually a threat themselves away from home. Therefore, the home win at 10/11 intrigues me today.
Team news – Parma miss Marques whereas Cagliari miss Lazzari and have doubts over Matri.
Verdict: Parma to win at 10/11.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Beira-Mar – home win at 10/11.
I can’t shed much light on this one other than that I personally believe Nacional to be a much better side than Beira-Mar. It’s taken Nacional a little while to get going this sason but they are playing well at last and even won at the Estadio do Dragao against Porto in the League Cup a few days ago so morale is high. They’ve won three out of their last four home games in the Liga Sagres with the only exception being a 0-0 draw in the Madeira derby with rivals Maritimo Funchal so they’re steadily becoming more reliable on their own turf. Jokanovic’s teams aren’t as potent as they should be, unfortunately, but the input of Luiz Alberto and Bruno Amaro from midfield help out Orlando Sa and Edgar Costa in attack so Nacional form a presentable unit. With morale on their side and a convincing home record of four wins, two draws, and just one loss at home in the Liga Sagres this season, I have to feel that the home win at evens is a decent price today.
You could be forgiven for thinking otherwise when viewing the statistic that Beira-Mar have only lost twice in seven away games in the Liga Sagres but I have a different perspective here. The newly-promoted outfit can be hard to beat but I’d assess their away form a little more and see that the only real test that they’ve had away from home has involved them being battered 3-0 by Porto. Beira-Mar have won at Sporting Braga, admittedly, but Braga have been terrible this season and that game was no exception. However, Beira-Mar today take on what I’d call one of the top six clubs in Portugal and I think that they’ll struggle as a result. Beira-Mar were looking jaded before the winter break and haven’t looked much better since their return, somehow losing 2-1 at Liga de Honra side Gil Vicente in the League Cup a few days ago so I don’t fancy their chances against a good Nacional side. It doesn’t help that Beira-Mar miss important defender Tavares for this game and I simply feel that the game will be out of their control with Nacional likely to dominate possession and edge the game 1-0 or 2-0.
The Liga Sagres is a little wayward for 1×2 betting sometimes because few sides score many goals. However, I’m going to stick my neck out here and back Nacional because they’re simply a better side and that should show by the final whistle, especially with newly-promoted Beira-Mar looking more and more jaded as the campaign wears on.
Team news – Nacional miss Mateus and Stojanovic whereas Beira-Mar miss Tavares.
Verdict: CD Nacional de Madeira to win at evens.
Espanyol vs Real Zaragoza – draw at 5/2.
You won’t often see me a call a draw on here ’cause it’s nearly impossible to do but this one looks like a draw to me today.
A lot of people will fawn all over Espanyl for their excellent home record but I’m not so sure. Pochettino has put together a very good side and they’re hard to beat. However, they aren’t a goalscoring side with star striker Osvaldo generally being the only one to put the ball in the net. He’s back for this game, which boosts Espanyol’s cause, but in all honesty, they’ve never truly recovered from the drubbing that bitter rivals Barcelona gave them back in December. They lost a poor game at Atletico Madrid after that before losing at Valencia CF despite having a man extra when the score was 1-1 but heads dropped and they lost 2-1 at the end. Espanyol followed that up by a draw at home to strikerless Atletico Madrid a few days ago and crashed out of the Copa del Rey as a result. All in all, Espanyol aren’t scoring many goals and they’re not defending as well as normal so I have my doubts here.
Espanyol have won seven out of eight Primera Liga games at home this season, which is remarkably impressive. However, don’t allow that to cloud your vision of how good a side actually is or isn’t as Espanyol aren’t more than a UEFA Europa League side, in my view. This run cannot continue for the season; they’re not Barcelona or Real Madrid. They’re hosting a side today that they’ve only beaten once in their last four home games in the Primera Liga, drawing twice along the way, so be careful with this one today.
Indeed, Zaragoza’s injury issues are lessening and their displays are beginning to show it. Missing Ponzio for this game will hurt them as his tenacity is infectious but the remainder of their side is largely entact and let’s not forget that Zaragoza are a good football side. Their league placing is rather harsh on a side that knocks the ball around nicely; they’re not just long ball merchants. Any side with the scintillating Ander Herrera as playmaker has a chance and the Basque youngster is likely to play today. Experienced Mexican boss Aguirre knows how to set his side up, usually packing the midfield and unleashing deadly counter-attacks. Here’s a statistic for you to back that up, too – only Barcelona and Real Madrid have lost less away games than Zaragoza have this season and only Valencia CF and Villarreal CF can match their impressive record of just three defeats in eight away games. As you can plainly see, the league table doesn’t always tell the truth about how good or bad sides are and I think it’d be a little foolish to overlook Zaragoza here.
Zaragoza haven’t actually won away from home in the Primera Liga this season, something which should most likely change in the near future if their current form continues. Zaragoza haven’t lost in their last four away games now despite facing Valencia CF and Getafe along the way, which are two strong home sides. The reason for this is that Zaragoza manipulate the ball very well and I genuinely think we’ll see the best of this side in the second half of this campaign, starting today.
Espanyol haven’t had time to draw breath lately with Copa del Rey commitments but Zaragoza have had time so they have the advantage here from a fitness perspective. Two out of their last four games in Barcelona between these two sides have ended in draws and with Zaragoza drawing most away games and Espanyol playing unconvincingly at the moment, I think the draw is priced too generously at 5/2, especially with Espanyol missing important defender Forlin today.
Team news – Espanyol miss Forlin wheres Real Zaragoza miss Ponzio and Uche.
Verdict: Draw at 5/2.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal CF – home win with -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
I don’t think that there’s much I can tell you about Real Madrid that you don’t already know!
However, what I can tell you here is that Real Madrid are better prepared than Villarreal CF are. Why? Well, both sides had Copa del Rey games mid-week but Real Madrid won their first leg 8-0 against Levante so they sent their youngsters to face Levante earlier this week, thus giving them a full first team for this game – well, barring the injuries, of course! Villarreal CF, however, had to battle with Valenciana rivals Valencia CF to come from behind at El Madrigal and qualify for the next round of the Copa del Rey. They’ll be buoyant at the win but this is El Submarino Amarillo’s third game in six days and with important players Marchena, Senna, and Nilmar still absent for the visitors, I think they’re going to be really stretched for this game.
Villarreal aren’t terrific away from home as it is but with a significant loss of match-winners available to them for this game against the fresh legs of Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu, I really fancy a convincing home win here. Madrid have beaten Villarreal in five out of their last six meetings at either ground and Real Madrid won this exact fixture 6-2 last season so backing Real Madrid -1.5 against a tired Villarreal side at 4/5 today looks an interesting bet to me.
Team news – Real Madrid miss Higuiain, Pepe, Dudek, Arbeloa, and Canales wreas Villarreal CF miss Nilmar, Marchena, Senna, and Truyols.
Verdict: Real Madrid to win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Skonto Riga, Olympiakos Piraeus, Lazio, SL Benfica, Vitoria Guimaraes, Real Madrid.
Recommended bets:
Olympiakos Piraeus, Parma, and Lazio at 3/1.
Real Madrid and SL Benfica at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
Japan vs Jordan (7) 2-1
Saudi Arabia vs Syria (7) 1-0
Baltic Champions Cup:
Skonto Riga vs Flora Tallinn (8) over 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United (5) 1-1
Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix (6) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
A.E.Paphos vs APOP/Kinyras (6) 1-1
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Olympiakos Nicosia (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Ermis vs AEL Limassol (6) 0-1
English FA Cup:
Manchester United vs Liverpool (7) 2-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic (6) over 2.5 goals
Chelsea vs Ipswich Town (7) 2-0
Leicester City vs Manchester City (7) 1-2
Greek Super League:
Iraklis vs Atromitos (5) 0-0
Panionios vs Xanthi (5) 1-0
Ergotelis vs Olympiakos Volos (6) 2-1
Panserraikos vs AEK Athens (5) 1-1
PAOK Salonika vs Asteras Tripolis (7) under 2.5 goals
Kerkyra vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 0-2
Italian Serie A:
Sampdoria vs AS Roma (5) 1-1
Bari vs Bologna (5) 1-0
Chievo Verona vs Palermo (6) 2-2
Catania vs Internazionale (5) 0-1
Cesena vs Genoa (6) 1-1
Fiorentina vs Brescia (3) 1-1
Lazio vs Lecce (8) 2-0
AC Milan vs Udinese (6) over 2.5 goals
Parma vs Cagliari (7) 1-0
SSC Napoli vs Juventus (6) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Pumas UNAM (8) 2-0
Puebla vs Guadalajara (6) 1-1
America vs Pachuca (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Olhanense (5) 1-0
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Beira-Mar (7) 1-0
Academica de Coimbra vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) 2-1
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Naval de Maio (8) 2-0
Uniao de Leiria vs SL Benfica (8) 1-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Almeria (6) 2-1
Osasuna vs Getafe (5) 1-1
Espanyol vs Real Zaragoza (5) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Sporting Gijon (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Real Madrid vs Villarreal CF (8) -1.5 handicap
Levante vs Valencia CF (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7)
Huesca vs Real Betis Balompie (5)
Tenerife vs Albacete (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!