Parma vs Internazionale

Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Parma and Internazionale. Hosts Parma are on a downward spiral despite an impressive start to their campaign following promotion from Serie B whereas reigning champions Internazionale are looking every inch the winners of Serie A yet again.

Parma are without a win in their past five games, losing four times and drawing once. They’ve conceded over two goals per game on this particular run and have scored just twice, hence the large number of issues that they currently have. Their last match was a 3-0 humbling at the hands of relegation-threatened Catania, which will have surely hurt them far more than the defeats against Juventus and AS Roma not only because of the comprehensive style of the defeat but because of the lack of quality difference between the two sides. Parma have a good home record with six wins in ten games this season, losing just twice along the way. However, they’ve won just once in their last four home games, losing once, and drawing twice. Their last home game was against poor-travelling Udinese and Parma didn’t even manage to score past them. Despite the re-acquisition of Hernan Crespo yesterday, I can’t see Parma’s fortunes changing in time for this difficult match with Internazionale, particularly when their momentum is non-existant currently.

Visitors Internazionale are playing their football with their backs to the wall and it’s working wonderfully well for them. Despite ending the Milan derby with nine men, Internazionale still won the game somewhat comfortably 2-0 with the possibility of scoring more goals i.e. had Pandev not hit the woodwork. What I like about Internazionale is that they’re always a threat to the opponents’ goal, which is obviously how all sides should play their football! Internazionale have won four out of their last five Serie A games, drawing the other encounter. They’ve beaten Juventus in their last match in the Coppa Italia and had beaten bitter rivals AC Milan prior to that game. However, what impresses me most is that the majority of their games lately have required character and the Internazionale side has always displayed it too. They came from behind to beat Juventus, they beat AC Milan with nine men, and they beat a vibrant Siena despite continually falling behind with the result ending 4-3. With Internazionale’s new-found resilience, their dependable momentum, and their six wins in ten away games in Serie A this year, you have to feel that they’ve got more than enough available to them to win this game today.

Although Parma are capable of being tricky customers and making Internazionale struggle, I simply cannot see Internazionale slipping up here because there’s far too much in their favour. The away win today looks to have good value in my opinion!

Verdict: Internazionale to win at 5/6.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners – home win at 10/11.

Hosts Perth Glory have built up some momentum in recent times by winning their last two games consecutively. Their home form is already impressive without the momentum but together they form a somewhat deadly duo. Perth Glory have won six out of eleven home games this season and have only lost here once. Along with Wellington Phoenix, they’re the lowest conceding home side in the A-League. In fact, they’ve not conceded a goal at home in their last three games, two of which they’ve won and they’ve averaged scoring two goals per game whilst doing so. Bluntly; Perth Glory are a good home side and have momentum to work with in this game today so we should see a convincing display from the hosts.

Visitors Central Coast Mariners are on a nine game winless run in the A-League which has seen them lose five times and draw four times. Central Coast Mariners have a semi-decent away record but have still lost six times  on the road this season. Ironically, the third-bottom club have conceded less away goals than any other A-League side this season and they’re not shy when it comes to scoring goals on the road either with an average of 1.5 goals scored per game. However, Central Coast Mariners don’t appear to be able to score more than a goal anywhere lately and seem to keep drawing 1-1. Unfortunately for Central Coast Mariners, they’re taking on a Perth Glory side that average scoring two goals per home game at the moment so they’re going to have a tough task to take anything from this game.

Although I could accept a draw being the final result of this game, you have to feel that there’s value in the home win for Perth Glory today with their good momentum and home advantage.

Verdict: Perth Glory to win at 10/11.

Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – home win at 9/10.

Deportivo Pereira’s first game of the new campaign sees them trying to restore their impressive home record from their last campaign whereby they won six out of nine games, drawing the other three. They averaged scoring nearly two goals per home game but their most impressive feature by far was the fact that they only conceded two goals in those nine home games. Let’s face it – if you keep a side from scoring goals against you then you stand a pretty damn good chance of at least drawing with them. If you add the potency of the side to the equation then you’ll find that the majority of the outcomes would be a home win. Nobody else could get near Deportivo Pereira’s defensive record at home in the last campaign and they’ll be keen to reproduce it for this one as they try to lay claim to the title.

Visitors Atletico Junior Barranquilla are a side I rate rather highly in the Futbol Profesional but they have a terrible flaw; they cannot play away from home. In their last campaign, the visitors lost seven out of nine away games, drawing the other two encounters. Atletico Junior were the joint-lowest scoring away side in the Futbol Profesional and averaged conceding nearly two goals per game. Although the past is the past, Atletico Junior will still have some (if not all) of their traits from last season. Lastly, Atletico Junior played a Copa Libertadores qualifier at home to Uruguay’s River Plate Montevideo a few days ago. Not only will that have tired Atletico Junior somewhat but the disappointing result means that they travel to Uruguay in a few days time for the second leg needing a win. There’s no way that Atletico Junior will field a full squad for this game today with that in mind so the home win does look to boast considerable value.

Verdict: Deportivo Pereira to win at 9/10.

Arsenal vs Manchester United – home win at 7/5.

Hosts Arsenal are still playing strongly despite it being the New Year. This is somewhat unusual for the London-based side as it’s about now that they tend to fall away from the leaders through inconsistency. Have Arsenal turned a corner in that respect? No, not really – the sides above them simply aren’t playing well – with the exception of Chelsea, that is! Unfortunately for me, one of those sides not playing well is Manchester United, who are Arsenal’s opponents today. The hosts have already won nine out of eleven home games this season and average scoring over three goals per game there too. Arsenal have beaten Manchester United here for two out of their last three Premier League meetings, drawing on the other occasion, but never failing to score at least two goals in each encounter. Arsenal have already lost to Manchester United this season in a game that Arsenal frankly dominated and were unfortunate to lose so I’m not holding my breath for the same thing to happen today. Arsenal’s momentum and confidence is sky high at the moment and it’ll take an extremely polished away performance from The Red Devils to take anything from this game.

Visitors Manchester United enter this game off the back of a derby win against Manchester City in the League Cup Semi-Final. Not only will the win have buoyed the players but also the performance was actually impressive – United deserved to win the game. I like that aspect almost as much as the way I liked celebrating the victory by berating City fans the next day but the fact is that I don’t believe that it will carry over into this game. I don’t carry about the money situation – Arsenal are twice the footballing side that Manchester City are and have a manager that is ten times better than City’s so this game will be very difficult indeed. United’s defence improved with the return of Rio Ferdinand but he sits this game out with a four-match ban. Vidic is allegedly set to make a return but I doubt it will be at The Emirates today. Manchester United have been at their weakest on the road this season having already succumbed to four defeats in eleven games. United have only won one away game out of their last four in all competitions and have generally been unconvincing in their displays too. As much as I’d love to believe that United will play to their potential and win this game, I just don’t envision it happening.

I expect a good game with plenty of goals and cards today but Arsenal’s momentum and potency excels that of Manchester United at the moment so the home win looks to offer some good value today.

Verdict: Arsenal to win at 7/5.

Catania vs Udinese – home win at 11/10.

Catania are starting to go on a crazy (by their standards!) run with just one defeat in their past five Serie A games, winning an impressive three times along the way. Catania have often relied on their home form to guide them away from the drop zone and they’re employing the same tactics yet again. Catania managed to cast aside their goal-shy displays by battering Parma 3-0 in their last game which will have inspired the whole squad, I’m sure. Their confidence, momentum, and potency will now be peaking so Catania stand a good chance of getting something from this game despite being at the shallow end of the quality pool.

Visitors Udinese are one of the worst sides in Serie A when playing away from home. They’ve already managed to lose seven times in their ten away games this season, a record that only Siena can “better”! Udinese are the only side in Serie A yet to win away from home and with a record of five goals scored in ten away games whilst conceding fourteen goals, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a dramatic alteration to this statistic. Udinese are not a bad side at all; in fact, I rate them rather highly. However, a lack of momentum, leadership, and goalscoring appears to have damaged them beyond repair currently and they’re now placed precariously close to the relegation zone as a result. With three defeats and two draws in their last five games, it’s hard to see Udinese turning over a new leaf for what will be a very difficult trip to feisty Catania today.

Although I consider Udinese to be the better of these two sides, all the factors point to a home win currently so I feel there’s value in the Catania win today.

Verdict: Catania to win at 11/10.

Freamunde vs Sporting Covilha – home win at 6/5.

I can’t substantiate this bet as much as I’d like because as with most Liga de Honra sides – there just isn’t that much between them in terms of quality. However, two aspects lead me to the conclusion that this game will end with a home win. The first is that Freamunde are in the form of their lives and are now unbeaten in four games with three consecutive wins leading them into this game so their momentum is through the roof. Freamunde’s home form is nothing to write home about but the momentum should make a significant difference today. The other factor is that Sporting Covilha are one of the worst away sides in the Liga de Honra with five defeats in seven games, winning just once along the way. They average conceding two goals per away game and have conceded three goals in each of their last three away games. Sporting Covilha have little in the way of momentum so a Freamunde win today looks good value at 6/5 in my opinion!

Verdict: Freamunde to win at 6/5.

Villarreal vs Osasuna – lay Villarreal at 5/4.

Villarreal have won just one game in their past six in all competitions and are starting to look a little frail again. They’ve got a commanding home record with six wins in eleven games and just one defeat all season at El Madrigal. However, even their 4-2 win at home to Real Zaragoza in their last match failed to convince me ebcause Real Zaragoza are…well, how to be diplomatic about this? They’re just shit, particularly away from home, so I’m not yet convinced by Villarreal. What you also have to consider is that El Submarino Amarillo have lost at home to Celta de Vigo in the Copa del Rey without scoring and have drawn at home to lowly Almeria in the Primera Liga. These kind of results just aren’t convincing because all Villarreal are encountering are sides that know how to defend and they cannot break them down. The problem for Villarreal is that I rate Osasuna above both of those sides, particularly in defence, so the hosts have got a tough job to take three points today. Villarreal are short on confidence and momentum at the moment so I think we could be starting to see chinks appearing in their armour at long last!

Visitors Osasuna enter this game on the back of two consecutive wins in the Primera Liga so they’ve gathered some momentum ahead of their tough trip south-east. Although Osasuna were crushed by a rampant Racing Santander mid-week, the Basque visitors will be back to focusing their attention on their situation in the league currently. However, what Osasuna do unquestionably well of late is defend. They’ve only conceded two goals in their last four Primera Liga games and they’ve faced Real Madrid along the way so they’re looking quite reliable currently. Osasuna’s away form in the Primera Liga is far from flattering with five defeats in ten away games but this is the kind of game that Osasuna will relish; they can smell the blood and lack of confidence in the Villarreal camp at the moment so I fancy their chances of taking something from this game.

Whereas I cannot possibly counter the fact that Villarreal are the better of these two sides, what I will say is that they’re not showing it at the moment and Osasuna are the kind of side that you’ll struggle with if you’re not playing well so I think there’s value in laying Villarreal tonight, particularly when you consider that Villarreal haven’t won any of their last three meetings at home to Osasuna…

Verdict: Lay Villarreal at 5/4.

Racing Club de Ferrol vs Pontevedra – home win at 5/4.

Ferrol have finally cast aside their horrific run of losses by winning their last two games consecutively, granting them some useful momentum ahead of today’s game. Their home record isn’t exactly great with just three wins in ten home games but two solid wins whilst keeping clean sheets should provide a significant mental boost in both defence and attack for Ferrol so I fancy their chances today as they seek to distance themselves from the drop zone.

Visitors Pontevedra are suffering from a lack of momentum themselves with three defeats in their past five games. However, their problems stem from the fact that they don’t score goals. They’ve scored just three in their past five games and although they’re not conceding excessively, it’s not going to get any better until they do start scoring. Pontevedra have already lost five out of ten away games this season and a lack of goalscoring ability and momentum appears to have nullified their threat so I can’t see them getting anything today.

Ultimately, this game is a clash of momentums and I think Ferrol will just edge it with the home advantage, recent potency, and clean sheets to boot.

Verdict: Racing Club de Ferrol to win at 5/4.

Eibar vs Ponferradina – home win at evens.

Following relegation from the Segunda Liga last season, Eibar appear destined to make a swift return there with their comfortable league placing of second in their group. The reason they’re doing so well largely stems from the fact that they’re about as immortal at home as a Spanish Segunda B side can be! They’ve won nine out of ten games at home this season, drawing the other. Eibar are not prolific but their record of just five goals conceded in ten games tells you where the secret of their success lies. Eibar have won three out of their last five games and generally know how to do enough in the Basque country to secure three points so I’m confident they’ll do the same again today.

Visitors Ponferradina, however, have other ideas. They’re not top of the group for no reason. They’ve won four out of their last five games so momentum is strong for them currently. They’re the lowest conceding away side in this group with just five goals conceded in ten games so this is going to be a very difficult game indeed for both sides. Ponferradina have won five out of their ten away games but have lost twice, showing that they do have an Achilles heel. Although I rate Ponferradina quite highly, the fact remains that they’re facing a side today that are good enough to be in the division above and I think that edge in quality might just be the difference between the two in-form sides today.

There’s no doubt that this is a risky call but quality should prevail today with Eibar’s home advantage being such a reliable source of success!

Verdict: Eibar to win at evens.

Recommended bets:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen, AC Milan, Real Mallorca, and Internazionale at 5/1.

AS Roma, Galatasaray, Catania, and Deportivo Pereira at 7/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

African Nations:

Egypt vs Ghana (6) 2-1

Argentinian Primera Division:

River Plate vs Banfield (6) 2-1
Lanus vs Huracan (8) 2-0
Newell’s Old Boys vs Independiente (5) 1-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Boca Juniors (6) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners (7) 1-0

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AA Gent vs Zulte-Waregem (7) 2-1
Standard de Liege vs Kortrijk (6) 0-0

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Tienen vs Eupen (6)
Liege vs Dender (7)
Ronse vs Red Star Waasland (5)

Colombian Futbol Profesional:

Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (7) 2-1
Cortulua vs Boyaca Chico (5) 0-1
Real Cartagena vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-0
Envigado vs Cucuta Deportivo (6) 1-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportes Quindio (6) 2-0
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali (7) 2-1

Cypriot Division 1:

Ethnikos Achnas vs APOEL Nicosia (8) 1-2
Doxa vs APEP (6) 0-0
AEL Limassol vs APOP/Kinyras (4) 1-1

English Premier League:

Manchester City vs Portsmouth (8) 2-1
Arsenal vs Manchester United (6) 2-1

Finnish Liiga Cup:

Mariehamn vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 1-1

French Ligue 1:

Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne (6) 1-0
Valenciennes vs Sochaux (6) 0-0
Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain (8) 2-1

German Bundesliga:

VFB Stuttgart vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (5) 1-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg (9) 3-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
Karlsruher SC vs 1860 Munich (6)
Paderborn vs FSV Frankfurt (8)

Greek Super League:

Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis (6) 1-1
Panthrakikos vs Ergotelis (6) 0-1
Xanthi vs Aris Salonika (5) 1-1
Panionios vs Olympiakos Piraeus (4) 0-1
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens (8) 2-0, at least one red card in this game

Greek B Ethniki:

Agrotikos Asteras vs OFI Crete (6)
Kalamata vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)
Olympiakos Volos vs Panaitolikos Agrinio (7)
Panserraikos vs Aigaleo Athens (8)
Pierikos Katerini vs Ilioupoli (6)
Thrasivoulos vs Ethnikos Piraeus (7)

Italian Serie A:

Sampdoria vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) 1-1
Chievo Verona vs Bologna (6) 1-0
Cagliari vs Fiorentina (6) 2-1
Parma vs Internazionale (8) 0-2
AC Milan vs Livorno (8) 2-1
AS Roma vs Siena (10) -1.75 handicap
Catania vs Udinese (7) 1-0

Mexican Primera Division:

Puebla vs Queretaro (7) 2-1
Pumas UNAM vs Toluca (6) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Atlas (6) 1-0
America vs Indios (8) 2-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) 1-2
Twente Enschede vs Roda JC Kerkrade (7) 2-0
Utrecht vs Heracles Almelo (5) 0-0
Vitesse Arnhem vs PSV Eindhoven (8) 0-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Go Ahead Eagles vs Den Bosch (7)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Vitoria Setubal vs Rio Ave (5) 1-0
Pacos de Ferreira vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-1

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Varzim vs Feirense (5)
Desportivo Chaves vs Desportivo Aves (6)
Freamunde vs Sporting Covilha (7)
Gil Vicente vs Carregado (7)
Trofense vs Fatima (6)
Santa Clara vs Penafiel (8)

Spanish Primera Liga:

Deportivo Xerez vs Real Mallorca (7) 1-2
Villarreal vs Osasuna (4)
Real Valladolid vs Almeria (5) over 2.5 goals
Getafe vs Racing Santander (6) 2-1
Tenerife vs Real Zaragoza (6) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Malaga (8) over 2.5 goals
Sevilla CF vs Valencia (6) 2-2

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Cordoba vs Real Betis Balompie (5)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Real Murcia (6)
Numancia vs Celta de Vigo (6)
Salamanca vs Cadiz (5)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Real Union Club de Irun (8)

Spanish Segunda B:

Group 1:

Racing Club de Ferrol vs Pontevedra (6)
Athletic Club de Bilbao II vs Mirandes (5)
Eibar vs Ponferradina (7)
Lugo vs Montaneros (6)
Compostela vs Celta de Vigo II (5)
Zamora vs Izarra (8)
Guijuelo vs Lemona (6)
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs Deportivo Alaves (7)

Group 2:

Vecindario vs Toledo (5)
Universidad Las Palmas vs Guadalajara (6)
Lanzarote vs Alcorcon (7)
Real Madrid II vs Cacareno (7)
Alcala Henares vs Tenerife II (6)
Villanovense vs Real Racing Club Santander II (6)
Gimnastia Torrelavega vs Conquense (5)
Leganes vs Real Sporting de Gijon II (7)
Puertollano vs Cerro Reyes Badajoz (5)
Real Oviedo vs Atletico Madrid II (6)

Group 3:

Villajoyosa vs Atletico Gramenet (4)
Badalona vs Denia (6)
Ontinyent vs Sporting Mahones (6)
Alicante vs Espanyol Barcelona II (6)
Orihuela vs Sant Andreu (7)
Terrassa vs Logrones (5)
Lleida vs Alcoyano (7)

Group 4:

Real Murcia II vs Union Estepona (6)
Roquetas vs Sevilla II (6)
Marbella vs Ceuta (5)
Jerez Industrial vs Aguilas (6)
Sangonera Atletico vs Atletico Ciudad de Murcia (6)
Moratalla vs Real Jaen (7)
Real Betis Balompie II vs Lucena (7)
Melilla vs Caravaca (7)
Polideportivo Ejido vs San Roque (5)
Granada vs Ecija Balompie (8)

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Ankaragucu (5) 1-1
Bursaspor vs Eskisehirspor (7) 2-0
Gaziantepspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-1
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahce (7) 1-2
Denizlispor vs Galatasaray (8) 0-2

Uruguayan Primera Division:

River Plate Montevideo vs Central Espanol (5) 1-1
Atenas vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-2
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Enjoy your free betting tips!