Partizan Minsk vs FC Minsk
FreeToday’s featured game is between fallen giants Partizan Minsk and arising title challengers FC Minsk. Partizan Minsk is the failed project of wealthy Russian/Lithuanian nutcase Vladimir Romanov (who owns Hearts) and is the second failed project in the Baltic states that this psycho has created with the first being Lithuanian side FBK Kaunas. I don’t even know if Romanov still owns those two clubs but either way – he’s left Partizan in ruins and their league placing this year shows that. Local rivals FC Minsk, however, are having a terrific season and look set to continue it for the remainder of the season too.
So yeah – to be blunt, Partizan Minsk are finished, for now at least. The once-giants (previously named MTZ-RIPO Minsk) are heading straight down because they’ve been fucked over royally by that wealthy clown. I don’t know all the ins and outs of it but Partizan were basically left with a team predominantly made of youngsters at the start of the season and it’s shown with immature displays, poor goalscoring, and weak defending. Partizan have done quite well in spells lately, even holding giants BATE Borisov to a 1-1 draw at home, but they’re just not a good enough side anymore. Seven defeats in ten home games this season is classic relegation form and with just six goals scored and twenty conceded (an average of two per game!) in ten home games, Partizan Minsk have a lot of problems. It’s a genuine shame to see such a big club go downhill like this so rapidly but that’s what happens when you let a dickhead with too much money take over. Well, I say that – Partizan aren’t relegated yet – but it’s only a matter of time in my eyes.
Visitors FC Minsk have impressed me an awful lot this season. Ever since the two clubs merged (FC Minsk and Zmena Minsk) FC Minsk have got better each year. They’ve looked amazing this year, emerging as actual title challengers for atypical duo Dinamo Minsk and BATE Borisov. Shakhtyor Soligorsk have made one of their rare trips to the top of the table (it happens every few years) to compete so we look to have an exciting end to the Vysshaya Liga with four sides in the running. I wouldn’t go against FC Minsk at the moment, however, as they boast a superb away record; one of the best in the division, in fact, which gives them a massive advantage naturally. They’ve won a hefty six games out of nine on the road whilst averaging scoring two goals per game and conceding just over a goal per every two away games. Sheryakov has bee in good form for them this season and they’ve benefited immensely from that although the lion’s share of the credit must rest with experienced ex-Dinamo Minsk playmaker Andrey Razin, who has scored and created a lot of goals for FC Minsk this season. If those two are on-form then I’d fancy FC Minsk to beat most sides in this division and Partizan Minsk are no exception to that rule. FC Minsk have only lost twice in their last thirteen consecutive Vysshaya Liga games and those defeats came away against Shakhtyor Soligorsk and at home to Dinamo Minsk, which are two acceptable defeats, really! FC Minsk have blown away the majority of their opponents in that time, including a highly impressive win at reigning champions BATE Borisov (the only side to beat them away from home this season!) so don’t underestimate FC Minsk here. Indeed, their 3-1 win at home to Naftan Novopolotsk last match may look uninteresting on paper when compared to the Vysshaya Liga table at the moment but it means an awful lot to me. Naftan are such a good side when it comes to containing sides and conceding three goals in that game accounted for over a quarter of their away goals conceded all season long on the road, which demonstrates the massive potency of FC Minsk, particularly as Naftan Novopolotsk were in-form when they played.
All in all, we have a really big gulf in class here today and not through fault of Partizan Minsk’s players. However, football is a cruel game with no space for sympathy or compassion and FC Minsk have demonstrated great incision against weakness this season and should so again today. Partizan should be totally outplayed and easily outscored by a very talented and in-form FC Minsk today and 17/20 on that outcome is far, far too generous in my books – it should be 1/2 at the very most!
Verdict: FC Minsk to win at 17/20.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Atletico Lanus vs Newells Old Boys – home win at 22/25.
The odds are about right for this game but I like it nonetheless. Lanus impressed me with their 2-1 win at Arsenal de Sarandi’s bunch of misfits and look to have formed another impressive side for this season. The capture of Goltz from Huracan will bolster their defence (and it needed it!) as Velazquez and Viera both departed over the summer. The loss of Fritzler in midfield will hurt them a little but in genearl, the nucleus of the side remains the same and Lanus are still a top five side in my books. They’re a dominant home side and should prove to be again this season with quality still very much in their ranks, especially with momentum to drive them tonight.
Visitors Newells Old Boys have a few problems, however. They were rather droll at home to a weakaned Estudiantes De La Plata last match and instead of competing with them, they simply held back defensively, gave away a sloppy goal, and lost the game as a result. If Newells truly intend to emulate the likes of Estudiantes then they need to do a lot more, in my opinion. They were superb away from home last season and have a presentable record at Lanus but they’ve made some heavy losses in summer, losing key Uruguayan target man Boghossion to Salzburg, prominent defender Insaurralde to Boca Juniors, and Paraguayan striker Achucarro to Atlas in Mexico. Newells are now left with a gaping hole on the goalscoring front that I don’t feel Formica and Nunez are ready to fill yet so this may be more of an “experimental” campaign for them. It’ll take them some time to recover from those losses, especially Boghossion, so I don’t think they’ll be up to matching a strong and united Lanus side tonight.
This should be a tight and fairly low-scoring game but there should be value on the home win at those odds although I’d probably leave it if they drop.
Verdict: Atletico Lanus to win at 22/25.
BATE Borisov vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk – home win at evens.
I can’t ignore these odds, despite the undeniably good form of temporary giants Shakhtyor Soligorsk. Why? Well, BATE Borisov are still the daddies in Belarus and have been for years due to their financial clout and talented nucleus. However, they are gradually lessening in quality, which will concern me in future, but whilst they continue to make astute signings (i.e. Brazilian midfielder Renan from Gomel) then they should be ok. Rodionov looks as potent as ever in attack and pacey Kontsevoy as his strike partner makes for a lethal duo on their day. BATE crashed out of the Champions League against Copenhagen last week in a spirited 4-3 defeat in Denmark and they’ll be disappointed to have gone out but have had time to recover. They’ll be looking to get their domestic campaign back on track and why not today? They have a good record against Shakhtyor, winning four out of their last five home games against them and beating them for three out of their last four consecutive meetings at either ground, keeping two clean sheets in their last two games. I have an awful lot of respect for a very good Shakhtyor Soligorsk side and I’d be happy to back them against 95% of the Vysshaya Liga on the back of their massive momentum burst but they’re facing the best side in Belarus today. Shakhtyor will give them a game but BATE have the champions’ mentality; they know how to win these type of games. BATE should never be as high as evens to play anyone at home in this country so I have to call the home win today – BATE are simply the better side.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at evens.
Flamengo vs Ceara – home win at 10/11.
This is going to be a much tighter game than names alone suggest in Serie A but I fancy it at 10/11 although I’d avoid if it drops. This game has under 2.5 goals all over it because Ceara aren’t scoring – they’ve scored just once in their past three Serie A games, two of which were at home. They’re quite solid defensively still but the loss of Gusmao as manager is still hurting them and generally just a single goal will be enough to defeat them as a result. Ceara was Gusmao’s team and they look a little lost without him. Flamengo aren’t scoring goals either, worryingly for them. They’ve not scored for three consecutive Serie A games now although I’d argue that they’ve faced better opponents than Ceara of late so it’s a tad more understandable. Flamengo are still the better of these two sides, however, and they are at home, so the impetus is with them to do the damage here. I’m expecting a scrappy game between these two sides but something has to give today and I think it’s time for Flamengo to win again. The odds are decent enough to take a chance on and as I expect Flamengo to need just one goal to win this game, backing them to score a goal (and thus win the game) at 10/11 looks a fairly attractive prospect although caution is obviously recommended here.
Verdict: Flamengo to win at 10/11.
Rakovski vs CSKA Sofia – lay CSKA Sofia at 9/4.
The odds on CSKA Sofia to win this game are utterly laughable. They’re a giant of Bulgarian football and do posssess the better squad but the fact that they’re bottom of the A PFG table after just two games speaks volumes. They’ve lost two consecutive home games, one of which was against bitter rivals Levski Sofia, so needless to say that the team are under immense pressure at the moment due to the intolerant nature of the fans. The club aren’t playing well at all and also have to be watching their tie at home to Welsh side The New Saints next week in the UEFA Europa League Qualifier as European football may be their only salvation this season if their domestic descent continues. Rakovski may be new to this division but they’ve set themselves up well, claiming a very good draw at home to a strong Lokomotiv Plovdiv and winning at fellow newly-promoted side Akademik Sofia last match so they bring strong momentum into this game. Rakovski are a small side and this is like their World Cup final, playing against one of the biggest sides in Bulgaria, so they’ll be very well motivated for this game indeed. All in all, I think the high motivation and momentum of the hosts will be the last thing that the giants of CSKA will want to face with so much pressure on them at the moment and so many problems off the field so the price on laying CSKA at 9/4 looks far too generous in my books and could be a good value bet today.
Verdict: Lay CSKA Sofia at 9/4.
Wigan Athletic vs Blackpool – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
This one speaks for itself, really. Blackpool aren’t good enough to remain in this division but they arguably have the best spirit so they’ll give it their all. This – and every other game this season – will be their cup final so their motivation will be through the roof. They did well last year through scoring goals wherever they played but the fact remains that they cannot defend. They couldn’t defend in the division below so how they expect to in this division is beyond me. It’s very good to score three goals against a side but not so good if the other side has scored ten; I’m sure you see my point. However, Wigan bizarrely share a similar philosophy to Blackpool and I expect both sides to go at it with all guns blazing today. No side likes to face a newly-promoted side on the first day of the season because of their high motivation levels and a goal from Blackpool (which I think is likely) will force Wigan into attacking even more to try and win the game. Ultimately, I think that’s going to lead to over 2.5 goals because neither side can defend well enough to keep the other out. Wigan have some good players in their side and N’Zogbia looks set for an excellent season if his form in their pre-season friendlies is anything to go by and he’ll tear Blackpool apart today if given chance. Either way, these are two attacking and driven sides and over 2.5 goals should be a mere formality here, even if it is the first game of the season for both sides.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Bolton Wanderers vs Fulham – home win at 23/20.
I’ve been massively impressed with Bolton Wanderers’ pre-season friendlies because they’ve looked strong, determined, and potent under new boss Owen Coyle. He’s brought that atmosphere and grit that he brought to Burnley but with additional levels of ability so I think we’ll see a good season from Bolton this year. I was most impressed when they overcame Osasuna 2-0 as I have a lot of respect for the resilience of Osasuna so Bolton have advanced since the departure of defensive manager Gary Megson. Coyle has brought in good players over the summer, most notably experienced Bulgarian winger Martin Petrov from Manchester City, so I think Bolton are looking very strong indeed. Aside from that, they’re facing a Fulham side that have to get used to live without Roy Hodgson. People seem to forget how bad Fulham were away from home before Hodgson and I think we might see a reminder of that this season unless Hughes settles quickly. Hughes is a very good manager but he’s had little time to make this side his own so I don’t think they’re ready for such a testing and physical away game. Fulham have lost Swiss centre-back Senderos for around six months due to a broken leg so may struggle defensively in the first-half of the season. Fulham still have good players but I question their ability to switch to Hughes’ tactics so soon and I think they’ll be caught short here, although I have no doubt that Fulham will ultimately be a force at home under Hughes, especially if he does manage to capture Dembele from AZ Alkmaar as the tabloids suggest he will. With the above in mind, I think the odds are good enough to take a Bolton win today.
Verdict: Bolton Wanderers to win at 23/20.
Scunthorpe United vs Norwich City – home win at 29/20.
These odds interest me a lot because I’m not sure where they’ve come from. Norwich are a good side but they’re not fully Championship material yet, as they proved in their opening game by losing 3-2 at home to a very impotent Watford side. Norwich struggle to score without Holt and although he’s in the squad today, what has been made apparent is that their defence is clearly lacking. I have a lot of respect for Norwich and I’m sure they’ll be a very determined and focused opponent today but they’re facing an experienced Scunthorpe side that are very good at home because they score a lot of goals at home. Their defence isn’t the best but their potency is extremely consistent, as they proved with a surprising opening day victory at Reading, winning 2-1 against the odds. Despite finishing just above the relegation zone, the only sides that scored more home goals than Scunthorpe last season were Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, Nottingham Forest, and Blackpool, three of which were promoted and the other made the play-offs! That speaks volumes for the potency of Scunthorpe and generally, although it sounds obvious, you have to score more than they do to win here and I just don’t think Norwich are capable of doing so. Scunthorpe did lose star striker Hooper and experiened midfielder McCann over the summer, admittedly, but the nucleus of the squad is still strong and I personally feel they’re priced too long to beat a fairly average Norwich side today so my recommendation is the home win here.
Verdict: Scunthorpe United to win at 29/20.
Colchester United vs Sheffield Wednesday – home win at 33/20.
These odds look far too generous for my liking. Colchester were dominant at home last season because of their potency and although they’ve lost experienced striker Clive Platt and strong target man Odejayi over the summer, they still have old hand Kevin Lisbie in their ranks and a very able squad overall so I do fancy them to have a good campaign. They’re not the best defensively but I still rate them as one of the better sides in the division. Sheffield Wednesday enter League One following relegation from the Championship last year in dramatic fashion. They bring a massive footballing name into this division but not a massive footballing squad with a particularly susceptible defence and a striker in Tudgay that is carrying the team. Clinton Morrison is a useful addition to their ailing attack and they have some experienced heads in their team but I just don’t rate them overall. They were totally outplayed by League Two outfit Bury mid-week at home in the Carling Cup and I have absolutely no idea how they won that game. Although Colchester are yet to find their own rhythm this season, I think the odds are too long on a home win today so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Colchester United to win at 33/20.
Bournemouth vs Peterborough United – away win at 6/5.
I’d argue that Peterborough, along with Plymouth, enter this division from the Championship best prepared for the push back into the Championship in comparison to the others because they’re both battling sides with a lot of League One players in their sides. Peterborough haven’t changed much over the summer although the addition of McCann in midfield from Scunthorpe adds experience to their line-up. They still have local legend George Boyd leading the line with Mackail-Smith and talented Joe Lewis in goal so the foundations of a very strong Peterborough side are still in place. They came from behind mid-week to win in the Carling Cup, which exemplified their confidence and they eventually strolled to a 4-1 win against a Rotherham United side which troubled opponents Bournemouth a lot last season in League Two. Bournemouth have a very compact and well-organised side but they’re very short on squad depth and ironically look out of their depth in this division. They don’t have the potency to last in this league and although they can frustrate sides, they tend to end up losing, as they have done for two consecutive competitive games now. They’re facing a very potent Peterborough side and although Peterborough’s defence isn’t the best, I can’t help but feel that Peterborough will simply outscore Bournemouth today and odds of 6/5 are good enough to take a chance on in my eyes.
Verdict: Peterborough United to win at 6/5.
Nomme Kalju vs Levadia Tallinn – away win at 1/2.
These odds are too long for me! Since Levadia bought Brazilian Felipe Nunes from Nomme Kalju a few weeks back, Nomme Kalju have really struggled to score goals, most notably against the better sides in the division. Indeed, this has been a problem for them at home all season long where only a really poor Lootus side has a worse record than Nomme Kalju’s paltry nine goals scored in eleven home games. Nomme Kalju’s strength is defence but they’re facing the best side in Estonia today and although Nomme Kalju got lucky with a draw at Levadia a few weeks back, I don’t think it’ll happen again today. Levadia won their last away game 4-0 at a good Sillamae Kalev side without even breaking sweat and have won eight out of twelve on the road this season, averaging scoring over two goals per away game. Although scoring goals has been a bit of an issue for Levadia this season, they have brought in old hand Voskoboinikov to help Neemelo with Levadia’s assault on goal and it’s paid off too, as it should today. Levadia do have a new manager but it’s only served them well thus far and I don’t see how Nomme Kalju are going to combat this talented Levadia side today, to be honest – they’ve never done so at home against Levadia since they were promoted and I don’t see that changing today. Nomme Kalju have played Levadia ten times since promotion and never beaten them, losing eight times along the way and losing all of their home games. Nomme Kalju aren’t as good as they were and Levadia are still strong so why they’re 1/2 to win this game and not 2/5 is beyond me!
Verdict: Levadia Tallinn to win at 1/2.
Vissel Kobe vs Shonan Bellmare – home win at 3/4.
These odds are a little shorter than I’d hoped but there should still be value on the basis that Shonan Bellmare are atrocious defensively. Four consecutive defeats leave Shonan in defensive mayhem, particularly with fourteen goals conceded along the way, which is an average of nearly four goals conceded per game. They’ve played two good sides and two average sides during that run but the winning margins didn’t change – Shonan just aren’t good enough defensively and should really be relegated this season, barring a miracle. Vissel Kobe are far from a great side but they’re experienced in the battle against relegation as their home form this season demonstrates with just four defeats in nine home games, winning four times and drawing once along the way. Kobe don’t concede many at home, which helps as they’re not terrifically potent either. However, a meager Shonan defence should give Vissel all the chances that they need to win this game and with four wins from their last six home games in all competitions (including the visits of Shimizu S-Pulse and Urawa Red Diamonds) it’s going to take a monumental display from Shonan to get a result here. The odds are a bit shorter than I’d like, as I said, but there should be value here as Shonan’s defence is bad enough to earn 1/2 on a win for any side playing against them at the moment, home or away!
Verdict: Vissel Kobe to win at 3/4.
Sport Colombia vs Guarani Asuncion – away win at 21/20.
Sport Colombia are one of the weaker Division Profesional sides and demonstrated that perfectly well in the Apertura with just four wins in twenty-two games. Sport Colombia don’t play well enough at home to be a force in this division as six defeats, four draws, and just one win at home in the Apertura indicated all too clearly. Sport Colombia averaged conceding nearly two goals per home game and scoring less than a goal per game so their problems are obvious to see. I’ll give them their due respect for back-to-back wins at home to Libertad Asuncion and away against 3 de Febrero lately but they’re facing a side that’s frankly much better than they are so they should struggle a lot tonight. Guarani were the best side in the division away from home in the Apertura with seven wins in eleven games, averaging scoring nearly two goals per away game, and duly won the Apertura as a result. Any side that wins the majority of their away games in domestic South American football is worth their salt as it’s a nightmarish thing to achieve. Barring a surprise defeat at home against Trinidense, Guarani have looked strong in the Clausura with three commanding wins and will look to win this game against their inferior opponents to give them momentum to take into next week’s tough game at home to River Plate Montevideo in the Copa Sudamericana. I don’t think Guarani will rest players for this game because they should have enought time to recover and with ability favouring them to a large degree, I have to endorse the away win at decent odds tonight.
Verdict: Guarani Asuncion to win at 21/20.
Leon de Huanuco vs Alianza Atletico – home win with -1.5 handicap at 29/20.
This was a contender for game of the day because not only are Leon du Huanuco a strong home side but they also boast a strong altitude advantage for this game. They’ve got a cast-iron defence that has only leaked seven goals in thirteen home games this season, which is the best defensive record in the division. They average scoring two goals per home game and have won ten times in thirteen home games this season. They’ve won six out of their last seven home games and have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap in four of those wins so they’re more than capable of doing so tonight as their unexpectedly good season continues. Alianza Atletico have had a terrible campaign away from home with nine defeats and four draws in thirteen away games. Why is their away form so bad? It’s because they don’t score away from home. Managing to score just four goals in thirteen away games is not an impressive fact and it’s one that has done them a lot of damage this season. Their defence averages conceding two goals per away game and they’ve lost five out of their last seven away games, losing by at least two goals in four of those five defeats. Alianza Atletico just want this season to be over with but unfortunately they’re facing a side today that wants this season to continue, given how well they’ve been playing. I’m expecting a real contrast in displays between these two sides today and a thoroughly dominant home win as a result so I think the odds on the handicap look very generous indeed.
Verdict: Leon de Huanuco to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 29/20.
Flota Swinoujscie vs Pogon Szczecin – away win at 6/4.
Away wins in Liga 1 are particularly rare, especially when the side you’re facing is Flora Swinoujscie, who lost just four home games all of last season. This is largely because Flora are based a long way from most sides, on a small island in northern Poland called Uznam. They’ve got a decent enough side to comfortably achieve a mid-table place this season but they’re not playing well at the moment. Niewiada misses this game through suspension for the hosts and although they’re playing at home for the first time this season, I have my doubts over their ability to reclaim their usual strong home form. This is largely because both sets of fans are considering boycotting the game today because of increased ticket prices and if that occurs then there is no real home advantage for the hosts as Pogon are based close enough to them for the journey to not impact their football excessively. This is actually a Pomeranian derby of sorts so both sides will be up for it. However, with Flota’s main advantage removed due to the two sides being based close to each other, you have to give Pogon their chance here as they are the better side. Pogon are too big to be playing Liga 1 football in my view and hopefully they’ll get their long overdue promotion this year and if they do then a lot of it will be down to star midfielder Bartosz Lawa. It’s players like him that make the difference in divisions like Liga 1 and tight games like this one and that’s one of the reasons I favour Pogon today. They did well away from home last year without really winning enough games and although neither of these two sides won this derby in either of the two meetings last year, I think Pogon have a good enough chance to do so today. Four of their players – Dziuba, Jarun, Hrymowicz, and Pietruszka – have all previously played for Flota so they know what they’re up against today.
Ultimately, Flota playing minus the long trip of their opponents and minus their fans makes this game a lot closer and considering that Pogon are the better side, I think the away win at 6/4 is worth a punt today.
Verdict: Pogon Szczecin to win at 6/4.
Tom Tomsk vs Krylya Sovetov Samara – home win at 3/4.
I don’t view this bet as backing Tom Tomsk to win the game, necessarily, but more to actually score a goal. Basically, Krylya have had a terrible campaign and are duly in the relegation zone as a result. The main reason behind their placing is that they’re not scoring goals, something they’ve managed to do just twice in seven away games this season. Consider that they’ve leaked an average of two goals per away game during that run and you can see why they’ve lost five out of their seven away games. They’re on a dogged run of late with three games without defeat but Tom Tomsk are experienced campaigners at home; that’s where they take all of their points. Tom have been poor this season and particularly of late but they’re still scoring goals despite results not favouring them. They came from behind to beat relelgation strugglers Sibir Novosibirsk in their last home game, which demonstrated great spirit considering the bad run of form they’d been on. They even scored in Kazan against Rubin last match, although eventually losing 2-1, so Tom’s spirit is very much alive, as is their potency. However, consider that the only two sides to stop Tom scoring at home this season are the best two sides in Russia currently – Zenit St.Petersburg and Rubin Kazan respectively – and you can appreciate why I like this bet today. I don’t envision Krylya scoring against a usually-tight Tom defence but I do see the hosts scoring so although the odds on the home win are a little shorter than I’d like, there should be still value in the home win as I expect a narrow Tom Tomsk victory today.
Verdict: Tom Tomsk to win at 3/4.
Nitra vs Slovan Bratislava – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
This one speaks for itself – two very attacking sides that score lots of goals! Three out of the last four meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and Slovan won this fixture 5-2 last season. I don’t expect a similar scoreline today although I do think Slovan will win. However, Nitra are very good at finding the net so Slovan will have to outscore them today and thus I think over 2.5 goals should really be straightforward today at slightly generous odds.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Elfsborg Boras vs Kalmar – home win at 3/4.
Elfsborg Boras’ home form has been particularly good this year with their artificial turf seemingly lending them a greater hand than normal with six wins and three draws in nine home games whilst scoring a hefty twenty-four goals along the way, which is an average of well over two goals per home game. They score more goals at home than anyone else and look very good at the moment, especially on the back of an away win at resilient Halmstad last match, winning 3-1. The Boras Arena hasn’t seen Elfsborg beat Kalmar since 2006 but this is their best chance to change that record. Kalmar had a bad start to the Allsvenskan this season but have looked strong in recent times and atypically hard to beat. I still think they were very fortunate to come from behind and pip Trelleborg to the post last match but it shows great character and determination for a side that had lost 5-2 in Bulgaria a few days before. Kalmar have only lost one away game in the Allsvenskan this season thanks to their well-organised side but unsurprisingly, that game was against general title contenders IFK Goteborg. Kalmar appear to recognise that the title is beyond them after the Elm brothers departed and despite remaining a good side, there are still certain sides that are better than them and one of them is Elfsborg Boras.
This game is never an easy one to call and don’t be fooled into thinking it is by the league table. However, there’s some value in the home win at 3/4 for a very potent and in-form Elfsborg to break through a resilient but fairly low-scoring Kalmar side today to ultimately win the game.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at 3/4.
Malmo vs Gefle – home win with -1.5 handicap at 21/20.
The only thing that makes me nervous about this bet is Gefle’s horrible defensive tactics i.e. everyone behind the ball. I give Gefle a 5% chance of scoring a goal in this game at most after the departure of start striker Gerndt so my concern isn’t that they’ll score; it’s that their solid defence will keep the score down. Malmo will dominate the possession as they always do at home and I’d be astounded if they didn’t win the game, especially with eight wins and one draw from nine home games this season already. Malmo do average scoring two goals per home game, however, so if anyone can break the stiff Gefle resolve then it’s Malmo. Malmo have won three consecutive games ahead of this one today so momentum should lend a hand in the somewhat inevitable downfall of Gefle but what we really need in this game is a nice early goal for Malmo, which should hopefully open Gefle up and allow Malmo to inflict the necessary damage. I have few doubts over the home win in itself, if indeed any, but I would advise caution on the handicap because of Gefle’s anti-football tactics. Either way, the odds are good enough to take a chance on today.
Verdict: Malmo to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 21/20.
Winterthur vs Servette – away win at 9/10.
I love the Challenge League! After three games of the season, the best three sides in the division occupy the top three spots – perfection in the betting world! In the Challenge League last season, Winterthur were a very real threat with strong and potent displays. However, quick consultation over the summer and the departure of star Nigerian striker Innocent Emerghara to Grasshoppers Zurich appears to have ruptured the team somehow and they look terrible at the moment. I’ll be the first to admit that they’ve had three hard games at the start of the season but they’ve leaked ten goals in three games, which is totally unacceptable! Morale is low as a result and the last game they need is yet another nightmare game against a very good and in-form Servette side! Servette have won three out of three so far in convincing displays that have seen them beat the -1.5 goal handicap each time so you can see that they’re well on their way to becoming a Super League side already. Star striker Eudis is gradually finding his shooting boots and Servette are moving menacingly into gear as the season winds onwards and they’ll be over the moon to be facing Winterthur in such a dismal state because they struggled here last season. Servette are by far the better side out of these two at the moment and the combination of woeful Winterthur defending and incisive Servette attacking leaves the possible outcome of this game looking like a hefty away win. The odds are a bit shorter than I wanted for this game so I’d leave it if they drop but there should still be value in the away win for in-form Servette today.
Verdict: Servette to win at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
FC Minsk, Anderlecht, Dinamo Zagreb, Rijeka, Hajduk Split, FC Copenhagen, Chelsea, Huddersfield Town, Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, Trans Narva, Sillamae Kalev, Debreceni VSC, Kashima Antlers, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, Leon de Huanaco, Alianza Lima, Lech Poznan, Zenit St.Petersburg, Spartak Nalchik, Rangers, Partizan Belgrade, Spartak Trnava, Maribor, Malmo, Dynamo Kiev.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
FC Minsk and BATE Borisov at 3/1.
Servette and Levadia Tallinn at 2/1.
Bolton Wanderers, Peterborough United, and Chelsea at 5/1.
Leon de Huanaco -1.5 goals & Guarani Asuncion at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Boca Juniors vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Lanus vs Newells Old Boys (7) 2-1
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
North Queensland Fury vs Sydney FC (5) 1-2
Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory (6) 1-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (6) 1-0
Partizan Minsk vs FC Minsk (8) 0-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Lokeren (6) both sides to score
Anderlecht vs Germinal Beerschot (8) 2-0
AA Gent vs Eupen (6) over 2.5 goals
Kortrijk vs Sint-Truiden (6) 2-1
Mechelen vs Lierse SK (4) 1-1
Westerlo vs Zulte-Waregem (5) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense (7) 1-0
Flamengo vs Ceara (7) 1-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Guarani (5) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Rakovski vs CSKA Sofia (5) 1-1
Cherno More Varna vs Akademik Sofia (7) 1-0
Sliven vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (5) 0-1
Montana vs Minior Pernik (6) 0-0
Litex Lovech vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Santiago Wanderers vs Colo Colo (5) 2-2
Union Espanola vs Palestino (6) 2-1
Universidad de Concepcion vs O’Higgins (5) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Cucuta Deportivo vs Millonarios Bogota (7) 2-1
Atletico Huila vs Deportivo Pereira (7) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (6) under 2.5 goals
Sibenik vs NK Zagreb (4) 0-0
Zadar vs Cibalia Vinkovci (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Split vs Slaven Koprivnica (5) 0-1
Dinamo Zagreb vs Karlovac (8) -1.5 handicap
Rijeka vs Varteks Varazdin (8) 2-0
Inter Zapresic vs Hajduk Split (8) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc (6) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland (8) 2-0
SonderjyskE vs OB Odense (4) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Independiente vs Olmedo Riobamba (5) 2-1
Manta vs Deportivo Quito (3) 2-1
English Premier League:
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City (6) 2-1
Aston Villa vs West Ham United (4) 1-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Everton (7) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Blackpool (5) over 2.5 goals
Bolton Wanderers vs Fulham (6) 1-0
Sunderland vs Birmingham City (6) 0-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City (5) 1-1
Chelsea vs West Bromwich Albion (9) -1.5 handicap
English Championship:
Watford vs Coventry City (6)
Scunthorpe United vs Norwich City (6) over 2.5 goals
Millwall vs Hull City (5)
Barnsley vs Crystal Palace (6)
Portsmouth vs Reading (4)
Derby County vs Cardiff City (7)
Leicester City vs Middlesbrough (6) over 2.5 goals
Sheffield United vs Queens Park Rangers (7)
Swansea City vs Preston North End (6)
Ipswich Town vs Burnley (6) draw no bet
Doncaster Rovers vs Bristol City (5)
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Tranmere Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Bristol Rovers vs Yeovil Town (5)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Rochdale (6) over 2.5 goals
Plymouth Argyle vs Carlisle United (7)
Hartlepool United vs Swindon Town (7)
Colchester United vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)
Brentford vs Walsall (5)
Bournemouth vs Peterborough United (7) over 2.5 goals
Oldham Athletic vs Notts County (5)
English League Two:
Lincoln City vs Torquay United (6)
Cheltenham Town vs Crewe Alexandra (5)
Hereford United vs Gillingham (5)
Bradford City vs Stevenage (7) over 2.5 goals
Stockport County vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Oxford United vs Bury (4)
Macclesfield Town vs Shrewsbury Town (4) over 2.5 goals
Aldershot Town vs Southend United (5) over 2.5 goals
Northampton Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Morecambe vs Rotherham United (6)
Barnet vs Burton Albion (6)
Port Vale vs Chesterfield (6)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Kuressaare vs Trans Narva (8) 0-2
Sillamae Kalev vs Viljandi Tulevik (8) 3-1
Nomme Kalju vs Levadia Tallinn (8) 0-2
Flora Tallinn vs Lootus (9) -1.5 handicap
Flora Paide vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (4) 0-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 2-2
French Ligue 1:
Stade Brestois vs Auxerre (5) 0-1
Lorient vs OGC Nice (5) 1-0
AS Monaco vs Montpellier HSC (6) 1-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Stade Rennais (6) 1-1
Saint-Etienne vs Sochaux (5) 2-1
Valenciennes vs Olympique de Marseille (4) 0-0
Arles vs Racing Club Lens (6) 1-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Paksi SE (5) 0-0
MTK Budapest vs Fehervar (4) 1-2
Debreceni VSC vs Kecskemeti TE (8) 2-0
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Szombathelyi Haladas (6) 1-1
Siofok vs Ujpest (5) 0-1
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs UCD (5) 1-0
Japanese J-League:
Vissel Kobe vs Shonan Bellmare (7) 2-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F Marinos (7) over 2.5 goals
Vegalta Sendai vs Gamba Osaka (6) over 2.5 goals
Kashima Antlers vs FC Tokyo (8) 2-0
Nagoya Grampus vs Urawa Red Diamonds (7) 1-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Blazma Rezekne vs Jelgava (5) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Atletas (7) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM (7) 2-1
Cruz Azul vs Pachuca (6) 1-1
Santos Laguna vs Jaguares (7) 2-0
San Luis vs Morelia (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem (8) over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven vs De Graafschap (9) -1.5 handicap
VVV Venlo vs Heracles Almelo (6) 1-1
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen (5) 1-1
Twente Enschede vs Heerenveen (7) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sport Colombia vs Guarani Asuncion (7) 1-2
Sportivo Trinidense vs Sol de America (5) 1-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Leon de Huanaco vs Alianza Atletico (8) -1.5 handicap
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano (8) 2-0
CNI vs Jose Galvez (5) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs GKS Belchatow (6) 1-0
Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk (5) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia (8) 2-1
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze (4) 1-1
Polish 1st Liga:
Flora Swinoujscie vs Pogon Szczecin (6)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Dolcan Zabki (5)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo Funchal vs Vitoria Setubal (7) 2-1
Naval de Maio vs Porto (6) under 2.5 goals
Pacos de Ferreira vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Urziceni vs Universitatea Cluj (5) 1-0
Vaslui vs Brasov (6) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (6) 1-0
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow (8) 2-0
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Rostov-na-Donu (4) 1-1
Spartak Nalchik vs Sibir Novosibirsk (8) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Celtic (7) 1-2
Aberdeen vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 2-1
Hearts vs St.Johnstone (7) 1-0
Rangers vs Kilmarnock (8) 2-0
St.Mirren vs Dundee United (6) 1-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Smederevo vs Red Star Belgrade (7) 0-1
Spartak Subotica vs BSK Borca (6) 2-1
Borac Cacak vs Javor Ivanjica (5) 1-0
OFK Belgrade vs Metalac GM (7) 2-0
Partizan Belgrade vs Indjija (9) -1.5 handicap
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Zlate Moravce (7) over 2.5 goals
Nitra vs Slovan Bratislava (6) over 2.5 goals
Senica vs Kosice (5) 1-1
Spartak Trnava vs DAC Dunajska Streda (8) 2-0
Tatran Presov vs Dubnica (6) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Maribor vs Nafta Lendava (8) over 2.5 goals
Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 2-1
Koper vs Gorica (4) 2-2
Domzale vs Triglav (6) 1-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Kalmar (7) over 2.5 goals
Malmo vs Gefle (8) -1.5 handicap
AIK Solna vs GAIS Goteborg (4) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Osters vs Brage (6)
Degerfors vs GIF Sundsvall (5) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Luzern (7) over 2.5 goals
Young Boys Bern vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Nyonnais vs Wil (5)
Wohlen vs Biel-Bienne (6)
Winterthur vs Servette (7) over 2.5 goals
Lausanne Sports vs Delemont (8) over 2.5 goals
Chiasso vs Aarau (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Kasimpasa (5) 2-1
Sivasspor vs Galatasaray (7) 0-1
Bursaspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kiev (8) 0-2
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Tavriya Simferopol (4) 0-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 1-1
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Obolon Kiev (5) 1-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Fenix vs Tacuarembo (6) 2-1
Bella Vista vs Central Espanol (7) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (6) 2-2
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Neath Athletic (7) over 2.5 goals
Haverfordwest County vs Newtown (7) 2-0
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town (5) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!