Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow
FreeToday’s featured game is the Polish Ekstraklasa game between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow. Piast Gliwice have had a disappointing campaign and find themselves battling relegtion as a result. Giants Wisla Krakow have had an average campaign with ups and downs but have a good chance of winning the title and are starting to show good form at a key stage of the season so we should see a good game tonight between two sides desperate for points.
Piast Gliwice have only lost five out of twelve at home this season, which isn’t that bad considering their league placing. Their problem lies in not winning enough of those games – they’ve won just three of those games this season, in fact. Few sides score less goals at home than Piast and with just one goal scored in their past four games, it’s hard to see that record getting better. Piast have lost three out of their last four games, two of them in acceptable fashion but the other was a ridiculous defeat at home to bottom club Polonia Warsaw. I rate Polonia as the better side, don’t get me wrong, but losing comfortably at home to a fellow relegation battling side is just unacceptable. If Piast get relegated this season then they can only blame themselves. Piast are in bad shape ahead of this game too, not only through a lack of goals and momentum but also in goal. Bizarrely enough, Piast are missing both first team goalkeepers for this game. They’re missing Rafal Kwapisz due to alcohol-related issues, issues which are supposed to have seen him sacked by now, and they’re also missing Maciej Nalepa through suspension so Piast are relying on an untested 17-year old goalkeeper to keep out one of the most potent sides in the division. You don’t need me to tell you that this isn’t a good combination, particularly with the hosts tonight in such poor form so I really expect Piast to have too many problems to deal with tonight.
Wisla Krakow enter this game on the back of a 0-0 draw at home to title rivals Lech Poznan. However, this is a good and bad result. It’s bad because if they want to affirm themselves as the dominant force in Poland then they need to control the arising Lech Poznan, which they didn’t do. Atypically, this would be a poor result for them but I think the instructions were not to lose as the title is now Wisla’s to lose due to not losing against Lech Poznan. There are five games remaining and Wisla are three points clear so they’ll be happy. They’ve played well lately, particularly tactically, and they’ve not conceded in any of their last three games so they’re looking very composed. I would question their goals tally of late but their momentum is strong and they’re facing a very young goalkeeper tonight, something they should be able to exploit. Wisla have won an unthinkable nine times in twelve away games this season and frankly deserve to win that title for this record alone. They owe a lot of their success to an impressive average of nearly two goals scored per away game so I have to favour them tonight as they’re in-form with two consecutive away wins, even on a difficult pitch against Polonia Warsaw.
I’ll be the first to admit that 4/6 aren’t great odds in general but for this selection I do consider them to be. Given the goal-shy and demoralised displays of Piast plus their goalkeeping issues, they should stand a good chance of losing to anyone tonight, let alone one of the best sides in the league. The worst thing is that Piast can’t simply sit back and defend their inexperienced goalkeeper – they have to attack and try to take points to avoid the drop so he could be terribly exposed against a very good Wisla side. I fancy Wisla to win this one comfortably with their momentum and potency. I’m really surprised they’re not more odds-on than they currently are so I’d have to recommend backing them, maybe even with an impudent -1.75 goal handicap if you feel lady luck is smiling upon you!
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at 4/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Bayern Munich – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Simple logic – Lyon have to win and Bayern always score away from home. I hope I don’t sound bitter here but Bayern have rode their luck on the road this season, particularly at Old Trafford, but I can only respect the fact that they’ve taken their chances. They’ve scored in every away Champions League game this season, which is considerably better than their goalscoring record at home. Their combative style has led to them scoring fourteen goals in five away games – nearly three per game on average – which is highly impressive and no doubt largely due to the tactically masterful Louis van Gaal. I don’t know how this game will pan out results-wise but I’m sure Bayern will score. The other side of the coin is that I don’t believe Puel is good enough to guide Lyon to victory tonight. He already bottled it whilst playing 10-men Bayern in Munich and went defensive, tactics publically opposed by star striker Lisandro Lopez. Lyon are still some way from the complete unit and I think it’s shown but a little more slyly than people have noticed this season. They were poor at home to Bordeaux in the last round of the Champions League – only Bordeaux bottling the big occasion due to a lack of experience got them the win that ultimately saw them through that night. Despite Lyon’s wide range of offensive weapons, they’re quite a droll side in front of goal against sides that know how to defend so I’m not convinced they’ll win. What I will say regarding that, however, is that they have to score in this game so they have to go for it, thus bringing goals one way or another. All of Bayern’s away games this season in the Champions League have gone over 2.5 goals and two out of Lyon’s last three Champions League home games have gone over 2.5 goals so the bet on over 2.5 goals tonight looks something of a gift.
0-0 anyone?!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Al Shabab vs Pakhtakor Tashkent – home win at 10/11.
There’s not much in this game but Al Shabab are more experienced in this competition and are good at home as they’ve already demonstrated in this campaign with two wins from two home games. Al Shabab need to win this game to qualify for the latter stages and realistically this competition wouldn’t be the same without them in the next round. Uzbek sides don’t travel too well due to the distance and Pakhtakor won’t be too concerned about seeing that change today as a draw puts them through to the latter stages. They should be concerned, however, as they’ve already lost in Iran against Sepahan in this campaign and claimed an unconvincing victory at Al Ain. Al Shabab are good at home as no defeats in their last six home games in the Champions League indicates all too well with four wins during that run. There’s a bit more of a quality difference between these two than meets the eye and I think the bookies may have underestimated that today.
Pakhtakor have lost five out of their six previous trips to Saudi Arabia in the Champions League and were undone comfortably at home by today’s hosts so I think taking the much-needed home win for Al Shabab at slightly generous odds of 10/11 looks a good bet today.
Verdict: Al Shabab to win at 10/11.
Grenoble Foot vs Paris Saint-Germain – away win at 11/10.
First of all – approach with low stakes. Neither side has anything to play for which makes it a dangerous game to bet on, in my experience. However, I simply can’t overlook the fantastic odds PSG have been priced at for this game. Whilst they’re above evens, they’re a decent shout tonight. Why? Grenoble Foot are far and away the worst side in the division. They’ve been relegated from virtually the first day of the season; only mathematics has now confirmed what all Ligue 1 observers knew eons ago. Grenoble have already lost ten games out of seventeen at home this season, a record worthy of relegating a side, in my opinion. They average conceding over 1.5 goals per home game and just about manage to score in each game on average. However, they’ve taken relegation badly (for some reason!) and have now lost four out of their last five games, conceding a hefty twelve goals during that run so they’re looking a little suspect tonight as you’d expect from a demoralised and talentless side. They are starting to score more goals to their credit but that’s happened a little too late, really!
PSG aren’t good on the road as just three away wins this season proves very well indeed. However, denying the fact that they’re twice as good as Grenoble would be futile. Whether the real PSG turns up or not is another matter, however, hence my recommended cuation for this one. However, they’re on a good run and are now unbeaten in seven games in all competitions, a run which is sure to have given them some good momentum. They’re barely conceding goals, which is imperative to their success tonight because they’re not scoring many either. This game has under 2.5 goals written all over it, really, but PSG should have enough to make a difference against a leaky Grenoble defence.
As I mentioned earlier – do approach with caution as these two sides have nothing to play for. However, there’s a fair difference in momentum and actual ability and it’s a difference that shouldn’t be as underestimated as it has been with those odds – I would have thought that the bookies would put PSG at 5/6, in which case I wouldn’t touch them, but whilst they’re over evens they’re worth a punt.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Suwon Bluewings, Wisla Krakow.
Recommended bets:
Wisla Krakow, Suwon Bluewings, and AS Monaco at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Bayern Munich (6) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
San Luis vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) 1-1
Guadalajara vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 0-0
Asian Champions League:
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Pohang Steelers (6) 0-0
Adelaide United vs Shandong Luneng (7) 1-0
Suwon Bluewings vs Armed Forces (10) -1.75 handicap
Henan Jianye vs Gamba Osaka (7) 1-2
Mes Kerman vs Al Hilal (6) 0-0
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli (5) 2-1
Al Ain vs Sepahan (6) 1-1
Al Shabab vs Pakhtakor Tashkent (6) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-0
Deportivo Cuenca vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 0-0
French Ligue 1:
AS Monaco vs Le Mans (7) 1-0
Grenoble Foot vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 1-2
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Odra Wodzislaw (6) 1-1
Polonia Warsaw vs GKS Belchatow (6) 0-0
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow (7) 1-2
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw (5) 1-0
Swedish Superettan:
Falkenberg vs Degerfors (7) under 2.5 goals
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra (6) over 2.5 goals
Trollhattan vs Hammarby (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!