Plymouth Argyle vs Newcastle United
FreeToday’s featured game is the English Championship game between Plymouth Argyle and Newcastle United. It’s do-or-die time for relegation-threatened Plymouth with nothing but a win able to assist their plight. Newcastle United have already won their promotion back into the Premier League but don’t appear to be slowing down whatsoever as they enter this game.
Plymouth are six points from safety with three games remaining; it’s time to panic. Are they good enough to win all of their remaining games? No, not really. However, they’d be lambasted by ther own fans if they showed anything but pure belief in their ability to escape the drop in tonight’s game so they have to take the game to the Championship’s best team, which should prove fatal. Plymouth are generally good at home in terms of keeping sides out but let themselves down tremendously in front of goal with just nineteen goals scored in twenty-one games. No side has won as few home games as they have this season with just five wins in twenty-one games so the reason for them battling relegation in the first place is more than apparent. Plymouth have been going down with a whimper since their heroic win in Yorkshire against Doncaster Rovers three games ago by losing two consecutive games (at home to Middlesbrough and away to Watford respectively) without even scoring a goal. They’ve failed to register a single goal in their last three home games, losing twice and drawing once along the way. Given their goal-shy displays lately, it’s extremely unlikely that this particular issue of theirs will be resolved by hosting the best side in the division tonight so I thoroughly expect Plymouth to struggle in this game.
Newcastle United have amazed me this year. I honestly thought they’d not have a hope in hell of gaining promotion from this division given the number of problems they left the Premier League with but they’ve returned swiftly and decisively so they have my utmost respect for doing so. The talks of takeover and money etc. all faded into the background quickly whilst Newcastle got on with their football thanks to manager Chris Hughton, who simply got on with his job. He told the players what they had to do and they did it. He brought in some shrewd signings for low amounts that all paid large dividends and now Newcastle are set to enter the Premier League as a new side so I take my hat off to Mr Hughton for doing the job that nobody else would or could do.
Hughton has made his side put in a professional display for every game that they’ve played in this season which is partially why I’m backing Newcastle tonight. He’ll make sure they play their football to be fair to the other relegation-threatened sides as he’s been on the receiving end of that scenario previously already. Newcastle have won five consecutive games ahead of this one tonight and aren’t letting up whatsoever so I expect another strong display from them. The players on show will be playing for their places in the team next season so don’t think they’ll be lacking in motivation – Newcastle have a big squad, after all. They’ve won their last three away games consecutively, the latest of which was the most impressive of all at high-flying Reading. I can’t see anything but another away win for Newcastle tonight as this driven side encounters yet another inferior side that will be unable to deal with them.
Plymouth cannot afford to sit back in this game and yet they cannot score goals either. It’s a catch 22 situation but they’re unfortunately facing that dilemma ahead of hosting the best side in the division currently. Newcastle will put in a well-marshalled display tonight and whether they go full-blooded or not tonight I still expect them to win. Irrespective of already being promoted, the fact that they’re at evens for this game absolutely astounds me and I can only urge you all to take advantage of these extremely generous odds!
Verdict: Newcastle United to win at evens.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Aalborg BK vs Esbjerg – home win at 10/11.
After a valuable win at AGF Aarhus in their last away game, Aalborg BK have finally started turning draws into wins. That particular win was followed up by another win in their latest game, which was at home to OB Odense. Aalborg BK are gradually re-introducing their efficient tactical success by winning games comfortably without conceding goals, something they’ve done for two consecutive games now. Aalborg BK have already been strong at home this season with seven wins in thirteen games but this boost of momentum makes them look even more threatening. Aalborg don’t have problems defensively, only in front of goal. However, they’ve scored three times in two games and momentum tends to boost your ability in front of goal so I see no reason as to why Aalborg won’t keep their European dream alive by winning again tonight.
Visitors Esbjerg are starting to make their way back down the Superligaen table to more familiar ground with just one win in their past five games, losing three times along the way. Esbjerg have only scored in one of their four away games since returning from the winter break, losing three times and drawing once. Those two goals were scored in their last game as they attempted a spirited fightback against giants FC Copenhagen which naturally failed as they lost 3-2. Esbjerg have generally disappointed on the road due to bad defending and poor finishing and those issues haven’t been resolved ahead of this game tonight so I don’t see why they’ll be able to change it. They’ve claimed a few points lately to boost their momentum a little but ultimately morale is still quite low and Esbjerg are playing too inconsistently to get anything from this game, in my opinion.
Aalborg have won at home to Esbjerg in six out of their last seven meetings so should really be able to do so again today. They’ve got enough favouring them to make it count and to hide their goal-shy attack and Esbjerg are bad enough defensively to lose this game. Esbjerg haven’t won here since 2003 so they should be used to losing here by now! I don’t expect a whitewash as Aalborg don’t score many goals but a narrow home win should be on the cards at decent odds of 10/11.
Verdict: Aalborg BK to win at 10/11.
Aalesund vs Rosenborg BK – away win at 5/6.
Hosts Aalesund made a great start to their Eliteserien campaign but stumbled last match in disappointing fashion at newly-promoted Haugesund, arguably the easiest of their fixtures so far! Rekdal will no doubt have been furious at his side losing that game but unfortunately reality has hit Aalesund a little early this season and I think it’ll affect them substantially ahead of their game with Rosenborg BK tonight. Aalesund have won two out of their three home games this season, remaining unbeaten throughout and whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per game. For those reasons, it’s certainly wise not to underestimate Aalesund, particularly at home.
However, reigning champions Rosenborg BK haven’t won twelve out of the last fifteen Eliteserien titles by being poor. They’ve arguably been fortunate in recent times to a bizarre level but they remain a very good side nonetheless. They don’t tend to dominate games, which may alarm you if you do watch this one, but they tend to do enough to win them. A fat Steffen Iversen still seems able to find the goal in clinical fashion and is serving Rosenborg well as a result. Rosenborg are unbeaten in their three away games this season, winning twice and drawing once. Worryingly for their contemporaries, Rosenborg have won three consecutive games ahead of this encounter and appear to be majestically powering their way into an irresistable level of almost “German” form, comfortably easing their way past three tough sides – Stromsgodset and Brann at home, Odd Grenland Skien (on artificial turf) away – which is no doubt stemming from the Germanic bloodline of their people! I’ve been incredibly impressed with Rosenborg, not just for who they’ve beaten but how they’ve beaten them. Rosenborg confidence is sky-high as a result and they’ve notched up nine goals in three games so why they’re not 1/2 to win here is something I don’t think I’ll ever quite comprehend.
Since first hitting the dizzying heights of the Eliteserien back in 2003, Aalesund have only ever beaten Rosenborg once but have lost a staggering eight times along the way. They’ve lost their last three home games against Rosenborg consecutively and have conceded at least twice in each of those games so look set to struggle tonight. I perhaps wouldn’t jump on the away win tonight had Aalesund not broken their momentum by losing at Haugesund but as they have I expect them to have a harsh reminder that they’re just a mid-table side and I expect that reminder to be dished out by the Eliteserien’s eternal champions Rosenborg BK at generous odds of 5/6.
Verdict: Rosenborg BK to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Liverpool, Stade Malherbe de Caen, Sporting Clube de Lisboa.
Recommended bets:
Liverpool, Newcastle United, and Aalborg BK at 5/1.
It’s been a while but I fancy a four-draw bet containing Haka Valkeakoski vs TPS Turku, Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn, Arminia Bielefeld vs Kaiserslautern, and Slovan Liberec vs Banik Ostrava at something like 100/1 for a bit of fun!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sliven vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (5) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec vs Banik Ostrava (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs Esbjerg (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs West Ham United (8) 2-1
English Championship:
Plymouth Argyle vs Newcastle United (8)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs TPS Turku (6) 1-1
Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Nimes (8)
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs Kaiserslautern (7)
Irish Premier League:
Galway United vs Dundalk (5) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Piacenza vs Sassuolo (6)
Reggina vs Crotone (6)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Aalesund vs Rosenborg BK (7) 1-2
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Piast Gliwice vs Polonia Warsaw (4) 1-1
Korona Kielce vs GKS Belchatow (5) 0-0
Legia Warsaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Vitoria Setubal (8) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Vaslui vs Universitatea Craiova (7) 1-0
Poli Timisoara vs CFR Cluj (6) 0-0
Russian Premier League:
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Rostov-na-Donu (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Sengkang Punggol (7) 2-0
Armed Forces vs Beijing Guoan (7) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Osasuna (7) 2-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Mjallby Solvesborg (5) 0-0
Kalmar vs AIK Solna (5) 1-0
Gefle vs Orebro (6) 1-0
Trelleborg vs Brommapojkarna (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Kriens vs Lugano (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Trabzonspor vs Kasimpasa (7) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Tavriya Simferopol vs Obolon Kiev (6) 2-1
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Karpaty Lviv (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!