Poland vs Ivory Coast
FreeThe usual warning applies with today’s picks – International games are some of the most unreliable on a consistent basis so if you’re going to bet then be cautious or don’t bother!
My featured game for today is the clash between Poland and Ivory Coast in Poznan. Poland have continually disappointed at international level for some years now due to poor tactical displays, incompetent defending, and a lack of finesse in front of goal. These problems still face Poland now so if the visitors turn up today then we could see a very one-sided scoreline here.
Hopefully it won’t sound racial but Polish people tend to have a problem with Africans in a footballing sense. Ekstraklasa football is quite old-fashioned and boring so the African players that play in that division tend to have a lot of joy because pace and strength are not massively common features in the average Ekstraklasa game. For example, Lech Poznan striker Tshibamba hails from the continent of Africa and although he’s not a particularly good player, he’s considered to be a decent player there because his style is of stark contrast so those whom he plays with and that’s the type of thing I expect today.
Poland are without a win in five consecutive home games and have even failed to score in three of them. They’ve got some good individuals, epecially in attack, but they rarely seem to make it count at home. Manager Smuda is not the most aware defensively and as a result, Poland are often pulled apart at the back and I expect that to occur today too, especially against a very attack-minded and talented Ivorian side. Ivory Coast aren’t the most competent side defensively themselves but they’re big, strong, and quick as a unit so they’re sure to make an impact against their hosts today. The pitch at Poznan should be in good condition so I expect a fairly fast-paced game here but that really should suit the flambuoyant visitors over the tenacious hosts.
However, the main inspiration for me to call this bet today is the ease with which Cameroon destroyed Poland in Poland in August, running out 0-3 winners. For me, Ivory Coast are a better side than Cameroon and although the two styles are not identical, there’s still enough to be drawn from the two sides to suggest that a similar result may be in the offering. Poland will attack under Smuda but their defence isn’t convincing and a pacey Ivorian attack should have too much for them today although apparently both Drogba and Kalou won’t feature in this game so use caution. Overs is worth a look in but the odds on the away win look better value to me.
Poland squad:
Goalkeepers – Fabianski, Tyton
Defenders – Piszczek, Glik, Sadlok, Jodlowiec, Wolakiewicz, Wojtkowiak
Midfielders – Matuszczyk, Murwaski, Obraniak, Blaszczykowski, Majewski, Mierzejewski, Gol, Borysiuk
Attackers – Smolarek, Lewandowski, Grosicki, Brozek
Missing players – Boruc, Zewlakow, Boenisch, Jelen
Ivory Coast squad:
Goalkeepers – Yeboah, Gnanhouan
Defenders – Tiene, Toure, Bamba, Demel, Brou Angoua
Midfielders – Zokora, Toure, Fae, Eboue, Tiote, Romaric, Boka
Attackers – Drogba, Gervinho, Doumbia, Kalou, Keita, Wilfried
Verdict: Ivory Coast to win at 27/20.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Finland vs San Marino – away win +3.5 goal handicap at 5/4
Betting in favour of San Marino is risky in just about any football game on the planet but I have my reasons here. Finland have parted company with Scottish manager Stuart Baxter after a series of unsuccessful displays. Fans are reported to have blamed him for the displays although in Baxter’s defence, I would point to the lack of Finnish youth emerging at the moment. Aside from goalkeeper Hradecky, who is truly coming through? Finland have even been forced to call upon veteran Jari Litmanen in attack, which shows how desperate they are, good as he still is.
Finland haven’t beaten any side at home since Republic of Macedonia in 2005 whereby this handicap bet would lose which speaks a good deal about Finland’s lack of ability and also lack of incision in front of goal. In that time, Finland have hosted sides that they at least had the potential to beat by a heavy scoreline i.e. Estonia, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, Armenia, Azerbaijan etc. I’ll immediately hold up my hands and say that San Marino are worse than all of those sides – that cannot be argued. However, they’re nowhere near as bad as they were and they at least have a vague grasp on keeping sides out nowadays. San Marino’s last game was a 0-2 defeat against Moldova, which isn’t a terrible result at all, in my opinion. However, it’s been some time since San Marino were able to keep an away game scoreline to a difference of three goals or less so the risk factor is more than apparent here. I don’t feel San Marino’s results of late (i.e. 0-5 result against Netherlands) are particularly fair because some sides simply have better individuals than they do and those are the ones that win games. Therefore, I’m going to be brave and given San Marino a +3.5 goal head start against a fairly impotent Finnish side.
Finland squad:
Goalkeepers – Fredriksson, Lehtovaara, Hradecky
Defenders – Lampi, Heikkinen, Moisander, Pasanen, Toivio, Ojala, Raitala
Midfielders – Varynen, Hamalainen, A.Eremenko Jr., Sparv, R.Eremenko, Porokava
Attackers – Litmanen, Forssell, Kuqi, Sjolund
Verdict: San Marino to win with a +3.5 goal handicap at 5/4.
Montenegro vs Azerbaijan – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
This game just screams “under 2.5 goals” at me from every angle. Look at the injury list for Montenegro – Jovetic is a long-term absentee that you should all be aware of already – but the names of Boskovic, Vucinic, Novakovic, Delibasic, Dzudovic, and Zverotic are all alleged to have withdrawn due to injuries and/or club committments. Montenegro are a decent side but for a side that makes very few attempts to go forward in a game of football to be missing some of their best and/or most creative players spells disaster. It’s fortuitous that they’re facing an Azeri side that never plays well away from home but even that doesn’t give them the odds that they’re currently at, in my opinion. The Azeri side hasn’t mastered their away displays yet but they’re defensively competent enough to keep the scoreline low against a fairly boring Montenegro side. Azerbaijan themselves have missing players (i.e. captain Sadygov) that will keep them on the defensive to cover their losses. I might have left this bet if the game meant something but as it doesn’t and neither side generally gives a shit about scoring goals, my call for this game is under 2.5 goals.
Montenegro squad:
Goalkeepers – Blazic, Bozovic
Defenders – Tomasevic, Savic, Dzudovic, Pejovic, Jovanovic, Batak, Basa, Pavicevic
Midfielders – Kascelan, Zverotic, Vukcevic, Novakovic, Petkovic, Bozovic, Fatic
Attackers – Beciraj, Vucinic, Delibasic, Dalovic, Damjanovic
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Russia vs Belgium – over 2.5 goals at evens.
One word; Advocaat. He’s the focal point of this “friendly” as he left the Belgium post to take over as Russia manager and the Russian Football Association paid a lot of money for that to happen too. Therefore, I have a sneaking suspicion that this friendly may not be so “friendly” after all, but we’ll see!
On the quality front – Russia are at home and they’re always strong at home. I hate betting overs with the hosts, however, because they’re not a naturally gifted attacking side. They’re more like a glorified Slovakia, in my humble opinion. You can count the number of creative players in this Russian squad on one hand because they don’t play the flair football that people seem to think that they do. A resilient side will cause them a lot of problems (i.e. Russia’s 0-1 result against Slovakia a few months back) but opponents like Belgium suit them immensely. Belgium may be foolhardy for doing so but they attack because they know their defence isn’t good enough to cope. With that in mind, Belgium tend to lose most of their away games although they do tend to score whilst doing so. Russia are usually tactically spot-on and are very well-organised so they should be able to score the odd set piece here, enough so for them to ultimately win the game, in my opinion. However, the pace and energy of the Belgian youngsters are something else that the Russians hate to play against so I do think we’ll see a Belgian goal here today. I was partially tempted to take the home win at 1/2 but I’ve been let down by unadventurous Russian home displays in the past so I’ll give it a miss. Instead, I’ll turn my focus to over 2.5 goals in a game that should be competitive and will hopefully yield goals due to defensive ineptitude and a contrast of footballing styles. Either way – the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Russia squad:
Goalkeepers – Akinfeev, Shunin
Defenders – A. Berzeutskiy, V. Berzeutskiy, Ignashevich, Shishkin, Vasin, Zhirkov
Midfielders – Bilyaletdinov, Zyrianov, Dzagoev, Mamaev, Semshov, Shirokov
Attackers – Arshavin, Pognebryak, Kerzhakov, Bukharov
Belgium squad:
Goalkeepers – Gillet, Mignolet, Proto
Defenders – Alderweireld, Ciman, Kompany, Lombaerts, Pocognoli, Van Buyten
Midfielders – Defour, Fellaini, Odjija-Ofoe, Simons, Vertonghen, Witsel, Legear, Hazard
Attackers – Dembele, Vossen, Vleminckx, Ogunjimi, Mirallas, Lukaku
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Estonia vs Liechtenstein – under 2.5 goals at evens.
There aren’t many sides that I think Estonia are worth 3/10 against and Liechtenstein aren’t one of them. This Liechtenstein side have proven to be resilient and fairly well-organised in recent games around Europe (i.e. 2-1 defeat at Scotland, 1-1 draw at Iceland) so I really wouldn’t give Estonia anything like the odds they’ve been given here. Estonia are a good side on their own turf and are very hard to score against but they’re not naturally gifted goalscorers. They’ve got the aptly-named Post (due to his height and strength, no doubt!) and emerging Saag in attack but Estonia lack experience in that area without Andreas Oper, who is not in the squad. Nor is pacey frontman Zenjov, wideman Klavan, or captain and important defender Piiroja, all of which have withdrawn due to club committments. Bluntly, Estonia are not at full-strength for this game so I don’t envision their usual commanding display at home. They should still prove to be hard to score against but they’re not great in front of goal and I personally think that the visitors are good enough to keep them out in this game, at least for the majority of it. My biggest concern is that the visitors go and do something stupid like scoring a goal as they have done of late against sides that are supposedly better than they are. However, I have faith in the stubborn ways of their Baltic hosts and I think we should see quite the shrewd and even game between these two big, physical sides. For me, the under 2.5 goals option is more likely than the bookies seem to think so that’s my call here.
Estonia squad:
Goalkeepers – Londak, Pareiko
Defenders – Jaager, Palatu, Rahn, Sidorenkov, Stepanov, Sisov
Midfielders – Dimitrijev, Kruglov, Luts, Mosnikov, Puri, Purje, Vassiljev, Vunk
Attackers – Kink, Post, Saag
Missing – Piiroja, Klavan, Zenjov, Oper
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Hungary vs Lithuania – both teams to score at evens.
A lot of people, myself included, have underestimated Lithuania of late and it’s proven to be rather foolish. They’ve claimed a thoroughly-deserved 1-1 draw at Czech Republic and gave Spain the fright of their lives before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat in Spain. Lithuania played very well in both games, however, and really shouldn’t be taken lightly here. I rate the hosts rather a lot on their own turf because there’s strong support and they usually function very well as a unit. However, their weakness is defence with only Juhasz really good enough to be in this defence at this level and Hungary are often caught out with it. The likes of Gera, Priskin, and Dzsudzsak are very good attacking players so I have little doubt over the hosts scoring in this game but I think the chances of the Lithuanians scoring too is quite high, higher than the bookies think it should be, anyway! It’s true that Lithuania have rested a couple of the usual big names i.e. Cesnauskis, Semberas, Danilevicius but they’re still bringing a good side to Hungary with only their midfield lacking in experience. Sernas caused nightmares for the Spanish defence in Lithuania’s last game and pleasingly enough, he’s in their squad for the game today. The long throws of Stankevicius are always a handful and ultimately, the visitors look pretty damn good tactically so I really wouldn’t underestimate them here. As far as the 1×2 market goes, Hungary should win the game but based on Lithuania’s recent displays, the hosts don’t merit the odds that they’re currently at. However, evens on both sides scoring in this game appeals to me a lot, especially as the only side that Hungary have kept a clean sheet against in their last seven games is San Marino. Let’s also not forget that Lithuania have named a couple of Hungary-based players in this side – Malinauskas and Pilibaitis – so they will have inside information on some of the hosts’ players for this game.
Hungary squad:
Goalkeepers – Kiraly, Fulop
Defenders – Kadar, Lazar, Pinter, Vermes, Liptak, Laczko, Juhasz
Midfielders – Gera, Hajnal, Koman, Elek, Dzsudzsak, Czvitkovics, Varga
Attackers – Priskin, Rudolf, Szalai
Lithuania squad:
Goalkeepers – Arlauskis, Malinauskas
Defenders – Radavicius, Skerla, Stankevicius, Fridrikas, Klimavicius, Kijanskas
Midfielders – Mikoliunas, Luksa, Novikovas, Pilibaitis, Galkevicius, Ivaskevicius
Attackers – Sernas, Poskus, Velicka
Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.
Netherlands vs Turkey – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
We all know that Netherlands are a better side than Turkey nowadays. We also know how professional the Dutch are so I expect a proper display from them tonight. Their squad oozes class and ability tonight, just as it always does, and their flambuoyant attacking style should be well directed with Van Der Vaart and Sneijder set to pull the strings. The talented Robin Van Persie is back after a lengthy injury and with a side so full of pace and energy at the Netherlands’ disposal, you have to fancy a convincing display from them tonight, especially at home. What convinces me even more, however, is that Turkey are taking a rather under-strength side. They’re missing Arda Turan, Tuncay, Altintop, Erding, Aurelio, Nihat, and Emre for this game, to name a few. Turkey aren’t the side that they were – they do have promising youngsters but they need bigger names for a game of this magnitude and I think they might just get caught out by relying heavily on Sahin in midfield. I think this game will be more like “men vs boys” than anything so a price of 6/5 on Netherlands winning by two or more looks intriguing to me.
Netherlands squad:
Goalkeepers – Stekelenburg, Vorm
Defenders – Van Der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen, Pieters, Maduro, Wisgerhof
Midfielders – Van Bommel, Van Der Vaart, Sneijder, Afellay, Janssen, Schaars, Drenthe
Attackers – Kuyt, Huntelaar, Van Persie, Lens, Babel
Turkey squad:
Goalkeepers – Volkan, Onur, Ufuk
Defenders – Gonul, Sabri, Servet, Kesimal, Ozturk, Adem, Koybesi, Aydin
Midfielders – Yekta, Inan, Akin, Engin, Ekici, Nuri, Gulle, Incedemir, Altintop
Attackers – Yilmaz, Kazim Kazim, Bulut, Ciftci
Verdict: Netherlands to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Portugal vs Spain – away win at 13/10.
This is an Iberian derby but I still fancy Spain to do the damage here, just as they did in the World Cup. Spain are simply a better football side, to be blunt. They keep the ball better than any other side on the planet and thus they create a lot of chances as a result. Portugal can be stubborn in games like this but naming just five defenders in the squad for this game could be suicidal, really. Spain have a lot of strength in-depth for this game and a lot of options in attack. I just don’t see them losing the ball much and if they do, who is going to punish them? It can only really be Ronaldo, who of course is a constant threat, to be fair. Spain have looked vulnerable to long ball in their last couple of games but I don’t see Portugal ever playing that tactic because it’s not their style. Portugal’s strikers are not good enough and that’s why Portugal struggle so often. Spain outclass them in every area of the field and with the squad they’ve named for this game, the price of 13/10 on the away win looks good.
Portugal squad:
Goalkeepers – Eduardo, Rui Patricio
Defenders -Alves, Pepe, Bosingwa, Carvalho, Pereira
Midfielders – Veloso, Moutinho, Machado, Fernandes, Meireles, Martins, Nani, Ronaldo, Danny
Attackers – Postiga, Almeida
Spain squad:
Goalkeepers – Casillas, Valdes, Reina
Defenders – Albiol, Marchena, Pique, Puyol, Capdevila, Ramos, Arbeloa
Midfielders – Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Mata, Alonso, Busquets, Martinez, Silva, Cazorla
Attackers – Villa, T0rres, Llorente, Pedro
Verdict: Spain to win at 13/10.
Chile vs Uruguay – both sides to score at 9/10.
This is a dodgy call because the two sides tend to nullify each other but I like it nonetheless. For me, Uruguay boast the best defence in South America as well as one of the most potent and varied attacks so they’re very much a hard side to play. However, Chile boast a youthful enthusiasm and gifted passing style that I’ve only seen Spain play better so this should be a good game to watch. Chile have lately parted company with Bielsa, which is a blow as he’s done a terrific job there. The Argentinian is supposedly being lined up to be the next River Plate boss but we’ll see how that goes. Either way, Chile are going to be out to impress and they’ve named a strong squad tonight although Valdivia may be missed. Uruguay’s attack contains Cavani, Suarez, and Forlan – that spells goals in many formats. My concern is Chile not converting their chances as only Suazo does so for them on a consistent basis but I still fancy their chances as they’re out to impress and pacey Sanchez should wreak havoc in the Uruguayan defence. Rather than enter the unpredictable 1×2 market for this game, my call is for both sides to score in this game.
Chile squad:
Goalkeepers – Bravo, Marin
Defenders – Isla, Jara, Medel, Mena, Ponce, Vidal
Midfielders – Carmona, Estrada, Maldonado, Meneses, Millar, Morales, Gonzalez
Attackers – Beausejour, Orellana, Paredes, Sanchez, Suazo
Uruguay squad:
Goalkeepers – Muslera, Castillo
Defenders – Lugano, Pereira, Scotti, Fucile, Caceres, Victorino
Midfielders – Perez, Rodriguez, Gargano, Eguren, Pereira, Rios, Ramirez
Attackers – Forlan, Abreu, Suarez, Cavani, Fernandez
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Goias vs Palmeiras – away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
The usual drill with the Copa Sudamericana is that the only sides that care about the competition are the ones that have nothing else to play for and the ones who have managers that want to go elsewhere. Palmeiras have both of those factors in their favour and thus they’ve been taking this competition very seriously indeed and I don’t see that changing tonight. However, the hosts are seven points from safety in Serie A with just three games remaining – I really don’t see them fielding a first string in this game. The South American continental competitions are biased towards Brazilian and Argentinian sides because they’re the biggest and wealthiest in South America so the FA pumps as many of each nation’s clubs into both the Copa Libertadores and the Copa Sudamericana as possible to attract viewers. Unfortunately, they get sides like Goias or Atletico Mineiro or Avai that don’t care about the competition in the slightest as they have more important things to focus upon. I will be amazed if Goias put anything into this game with such a daunting domestic task ahead of them so Palmeiras should have the green light to win this game. I’d not be happy with this bet if Palmeiras weren’t bothered either but Scolari wants to win this competition as he’s stated already, which I personally believe is so that he can move on to bigger and better things. Either way, Palmeiras will take this seriously with nothing to play for domestically and as they’re the better of these two sides, I fancy them to win this one tonight. Palmeiras don’t travel particularly well but they do specialise in not losing games so backing Palmeiras with DNB at 9/10 looks something of a gift for this game.
Verdict: Palmeiras to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Finland, Croatia, Paraguay, Guatemala.
Recommended bets:
Ivory Coast, Croatia, and Finland at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
European Championship Qualifiers:
Finland vs San Marino (8) 2-0
Croatia vs Malta (8) -1.5 handicap
African Nations Qualifiers:
Botswana vs Tunisia (6) 0-0
Togo vs Chad (7) over 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
Senegal vs Gabon (6) 1-1 (played in Paris)
Mozambique vs Zimbabwe (4) 1-1
Guinea vs Burkina Faso (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Malawi vs Rwanda (6) 1-0
Mali vs Democratic Republic of Congo (7) 2-0
Egypt vs Australia (6) 1-1
Iraq vs Kuwait (7) under 2.5 goals (played in United Arab Emirates)
Iran vs Nigeria (5) 1-0
China vs Latvia (4) both sides to score
Montenegro vs Azerbaijan (6) under 2.5 goals
Oman vs Belarus (6) 1-1
Hong Kong vs Paraguay (8) 0-2
Russia vs Belgium (7) over 2.5 goals
Slovakia vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (6) 1-1
Estonia vs Liechtenstein (6) under 2.5 goals
Argentina vs Brazil (6) over 2.5 goals (played in Qatar)
Bulgaria vs Serbia (5) 2-1
Albania vs Republic of Macedonia (7) under 2.5 goals
Hungary vs Lithuania (6) both sides to score
Israel vs Iceland (7) 2-0
Switzerland vs Ukraine (6) 0-0
Denmark vs Czech Republic (6) under 2.5 goals
Luxembourg vs Algeria (4) under 2.5 goals
Sweden vs Germany (6) 0-2
Netherlands vs Turkey (8) -1.5 handicap
Poland vs Ivory Coast (6) over 2.5 goals
Austria vs Greece (6) under 2.5 goals
South Africa vs USA (5) 1-2
Italy vs Romania (6) 1-0 (played in Austria)
Republic of Ireland vs Norway (7) 1-1
Northern Ireland vs Morocco (5) 1-0
Slovenia vs Georgia (6) under 2.5 goals
England vs France (6) under 2.5 goals
Portugal vs Spain (7) 0-1
Chile vs Uruguay (4) 2-1
Ecuador vs Venezuela (6) 1-0
Colombia vs Peru (7) 2-0
Guatemala vs Guyana (9) -1.5 handicap
Jamaica vs Costa Rica (6) 2-2 (played in USA)
Panama vs Honduras (4) 1-2
Copa Sudamericana:
Goias vs Palmeiras (6) 0-1, draw no bet
Enjoy your free betting tips!