Poli Timisoara vs Vaslui
FreeToday’s featured game is the Romanian Liga encounter between high-flying FC Poli Timisoara and tempremental tough-nuts SC Vaslui. Poli Timisoara have been playing well in recent times and are currently one point off the top of the Liga so they’ll be keen to win this one to keep the pressure up on misfiring CFR Cluj. SC Vaslui are still in the reckoning too but took a demoralising blow mid-week with a Cupa Romaniei defeat at FC Brasov so it remains to be seen how they cope with that.
Poli Timisoara have never lost at home to SC Vaslui in four meetings, winning their last two consecutively. Poli Timisoara are also amongst the few sides to have won at Vaslui this season so the hosts approach this game with a somewhat superior mental edge. Poli Timisoara are unbeaten in their last three games, winning their last two consecutively whilst conceding just once and scoring nine times, which is an average of three goals scored per game. Poli Timisoara are strong at home as it is with seven wins in eleven home games this season, scoring an average of nearly two goals per game. However, their most redeeming feature whilst performing at home is their stubborn defence as they’ve conceded just three times during those eleven games, which is the best record in the division. Poli Timisoara may occasionally get caught short of goals being scored but hardly any sides score here so they’re usually a good bet on their own turf. Poli Timisoara are on familiar ground, they’re playing with confidence, and they’re scoring for fun so they look a good bet for me today.
Visitors SC Vaslui can be a frustrating side to play against but I expect their defeat against Brasov mid-week to have hurt them and tired them. Poli Timisoara have had longer to prepare for this game as a result so a demoralised Vaslui have a difficult task today. Vaslui’s away form isn’t particularly bad but they have lost four times in twelve away games so they’re very much capable of being beaten on the road. Vaslui don’t have a good record against Poli Timisoara are either on thie ground or in general and although their “stopper” tactics tend to work well against most sides, the potent hosts today should bring too much to the table for Vaslui to cope with.
I’m expecting a low-scoring game between these two sides as neither concedes many goals and both employ a similar style of football with efficiency being the key. However, Poli Timisoara are the better of these two sides, they’re at home, and they’re scoring goals at the moment so should be able to do sufficient damage today. Confidence is high for the hosts and Vaslui have some tired legs out there so I fancy a dabble on the home win at evens.
Verdict: Poli Timisoara to win at evens.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
River Plate vs Argentinos Juniors – away win at 17/10.
Hosts River Plate enter this game following a painful defeat in “El Clasico” by Boca Juniors. They’ve had a poor campaign already but that defeat will annoy the players considerably. River Plate have been poor in front of goal this season which is primarily why they’re struggling. I’d argue the point that they’re missing the playmaking abilities of young Diego Buonanotte but either way River Plate are not playing well. They’ve only won two out of five home games in the Clausura and have lost one of those games. River Plate may have only conceded twice during that run but have only scored four times too, which isn’t enough. River Plate have quite a mixed record against Argentinos Juniors but managed to lose at home to them last season so are certainly capable of doing so again tonight.
Considering that I don’t rate Argentinos Juniors amongst the better sides in this division, I’ve been suitably impressed by their displays in the Clausura. They’re unbeaten in their last four games whilst winning three times and keeping a clean sheet in three of those games. They’ve won their last two away games consecutively without conceding a goal against giants Estudiantes De La Plata and Racing Club Avellaneda so Argentinos Juniors are looking a real force in the Clausura currently. Argentinos don’t score enough goals for my liking so I’m a tad hesitant ahead of their game tonight as a goal by the home side may shatter their style as it did last match at home to Tigre. Nonetheless, Argentinos have been the best away side in the Clausura this season with three wins and just one defeat in five away games and have scored an average of nearly two goals per game so they’re certainly a threat on the road.
Although I expect a close and low-scoring game between these two sids, I feel Argentinos Juniors are worth a punt given the goal-shy displays of River Plate and the incisive and efficient performances of the visiotrs. Argentinos have the momentum and defensive stability to take three points tonight and the odds make it a worthwhile bet.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to win at 17/10.
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Chernomorets Burgas – home win at 10/11.
Pirin Blagoevgrad appear to have added a dimension to their home football this season with their fortress becoming a feared place to travel to now. Lokomotiv Sofia could only draw here in their last home game and giants Litex Lovech were battered 4-1 here the game before that so Pirin are certainly spreading their wings. Pirin have won five out of ten home games in the A PFG and although their displays are often short on goals, the fact that they rarely concede assists them greatly with only league leaders Litex Lovech able to boast conceding less goals than today’s hosts have. The only side to score at Pirin Blagoevgrad that wasn’t one of the bigger sides in the division – Levski Sofia, Litex Lovech, and Lokomotiv Sofia – was Minior Pernik on the opening day of the season so to say Pirin are solid at home would be an understatement. Their limited goalscoring ability does concern me a little but they’re a solid side and have proven that they’re capable of winning against the best of Bulgarian football on their own turf and I expect that confidence to carry over into today’s game.
Visitors Chernomorets Burgas have only won once in their five games since returning from the winter break, which was a 3-0 win in their last match at home to lowly Lokomotiv Mezdra. Chernomorets Burgas are very much a home side but their statistics don’t reflect that as much as they should due to an excellent start to their campaign this season but this is something that can be identified with the fact that Chernomorets have lost four out of their last six away games and have drawn the other two, which is notable because Chernomorets have only lost four away games this season. Chernomorets tend to struggle scoring goals, something they’ve only managed to do in two out of their last five A PFG games, losing three times, drawing once, and winning just once. Chernomorets’ goal-shy displays have been common although even moreso against defensively astute sides like today’s hosts Pirin Blagoevgrad so I don’t expect them to score today, thus removing them as a threat in my eyes.
The question we’re really asking today is “Will Pirin Blagoevgrad score?”. If they do then this game really should be over. Football’s not always as concise as that, admittedly, but I fancy a clean sheet for the hosts very much today. I think Pirin have played well enough of late, particularly at home, to do damage today against a poor-travelling Chernomorets Burgas so the odds on what should be a narrow home win look worthwhile.
Verdict: Pirin Blagoevgrad to win at 10/11.
Banik Ostrava vs Slavia Prague – home win at evens.
I’ve been eyeing up this fixture for a few weeks now but lament the fact that the hosts enter it with the knowledge that their last home game ended in a 1-0 defeat against lowly, goal-shy Ceske Budejovice. Nonetheless, Banik are playing well in general so I’ll put it down as a one-off.
Banik Ostrava have been outstanding at home this season with eight wins in eleven games – more than any other Gambrinus Liga side. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and have only conceded seven times during those eleven games so Banik are strong at home. Apart from their minor blemish on their impressive home record with defeat against Ceske Budejovice, Banik Ostrava have played well since the winter break with their previous home game resulting in a 4-1 demolition of high-flying Jablonec and Banik having remained unbeaten in four games, drawing their two away games against good home sides. Banik Ostrava have a horrendous head-to-head record against Slavia Prague with no wins against them at home in the Gambrinus Liga for over ten years. However, they’ve got a superb chance to do so today and I expect a full-blooded display from the reliable hosts.
Slavia Prague have gone from bad to worse lately with their only remaining good featured – their solid defence – having abandoned them. They’ve leaked five goals in their last two games and have only scored once so Slavia Prague are in an awful lot of trouble currently, something even their manager admitted lately. They’ve lost 3-1 at relegation candidates Slovacko and 2-0 at home against out-of-sorts Slovan Liberec – two unthinkable results for a club the size and stature of Slavia Prague. Slavia Prague don’t even average scoring a goal per away game on average currently so they look really prone on the road, something which hasn’t been evident this season due to their solid defence but they now look weak there too so Slavia Prague could really be on the receiving end of a battering today.
Slavia Prague have to face up to the fact that their name alone won’t buy them points anymore. They need to improve and they don’t look up to it, particularly in attack. It would have been unthinkable for me to consider Slavia Prague taking a beating against Banik Ostrava in the league last season but this season I’d almost expect it to occur. I think the odds on the home win for the ascending Banik Ostrava are good value and I may even be tempted to have a very cheeky dabble on Banik Ostrava -1.75 at 11/4.
Verdict: Banik Ostrava to win at evens.
Le Havre vs Guingamp – home win at 10/11.
I’ve not been an advocate of Le Havre in recent times but I’m going to stick with them tonight. They’re still not back to their best by any stretch of the imagination but did manage to shake off their goal drought with a 3-1 win at home to Bastia last match so Le Havre bring some confidence into this game. They’re generally a reliable home side so I’ll give them their dues – I expect them to put in a spirited display tonight. Visitors Guingamp are a capable side but struggle on the road as their record of nine defeats in fifteen away games indicates all too well. Guingamp are the lowest goalscoring side in Ligue 2 away from home with an average of less than a goal scored per every two away games and they also manage to concede over a goal per away game so it’s easy to see why they struggle. Guingamp haven’t scored in any of their last three away games so this bet is really relying on whether Le Havre will score or not. For all Le Havre’s sins, they do at least manage to score goals so odds of 10/11 on the home win do look rather generous tonight – the odds should really be about 8/11 in my eyes.
Verdict: Le Havre to win at 10/11.
Brann Bergen vs Sandefjord – lay Brann Bergen at 11/10.
This is a bold call but one with substance. Brann Bergen are an unreliable side at the best of times but now that they’ve lost all but one of their quality players, they now look decidedly reliable in their unconvincing displays. Brann have failed to score in their first two Eliteserien games with both games exposing Brann’s problems to the maximum. A 4-0 crushing defeat at bitter rivals Viking Stavanger last match will have hurt them immensely but I half wonder if their goalless draw at home to newly-promoted Haugesund on the opening day of the season will have secretly hurt them more due to their clear lack of goalscoring ability. Perhaps that’s a tad harsh as Brann did outplay Haugesund that day and their ‘keeper produced a great display but the facts don’t lie; Brann haven’t scored in two games so are struggling in attack and are now leaking at the back so Bergen could be a host for a very interesting game indeed tonight.
Visitors Sandefjord are a poor side. They over-achieved last season; they won’t do that this season. They’ve lost their “shock factor” and should be battling against relegation this season. Sandefjord were made to look very poor indeed by an impressive Start Kristiansand on the opening day of the season but have since bounced back by flattening last season’s runners-up Molde 3-1 at home despite trailing during the game so Sandefjord do bring confidence into this game. They can’t defend for shit so I’m glad that they’ve found their goalscoring boots ahead of a potentially tough trip to Bergen today or else I wouldn’t be bothering with this bet.
Ultimately, Brann Bergen are the better side here but they’re less than the side they were last season so should have problems today. Sandefjord won here last season in back-to-back victories against Brann as they beat them at home too and look capable of surprising their goal-shy hosts today by avoiding defeat at generous odds of 11/10.
Verdict: Lay Brann Bergen at 11/10.
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Racing Santander – lay Athletic Club de Bilbao at 5/6.
I hate going against Bilbao but I’m left with little choice at the moment. Bilbao have only won once in their last five games and have conceded four goals in their last two games. Llorente isn’t firing on all cylinders so Bilbao are struggling to score goals too, which was a problem of theirs long before Llorente stepped up to the plate. Bilbao have only beaten Racing Santander once in their last five home game against them, drawing four times. Bilbao won at Racing Santander earlier on this season but I won’t read much into it as Santander at the time were on a horrendous run of form and actually sacked their manager after that defeat. Bilbao are a tough side to face at San Mamés but they’re not playing well enough at the moment to overcome a side that plays with the same vigour as they do, in my opinion, much as though I’d like them to!
Racing Santander are one of the most annoying sides in the division to play against because when they’re in-form, they tend to avoid defeat against just about everyone. They’re unbeaten in four consecutive games now despite facing trips to Valencia and Osasuna recently. In fact, Santander have only lost once in their last six Primera Liga away games and that was against mighty Barcelona so they’re a solid side on the road. Santander have kept three clean sheets during that run so it’s easy to see where their strength is and the fundamental reasoning behind them having only lost four away games in the Primera Liga this season. In fact, consider this fact – there are only two sides in the Primera Liga that have conceded less away goals and lost less away games than Racing Santander this season and that’s Barcelona and Real Madrid respectively. With that in mind, the odds on laying an out-of-sorts Bilbao tonight look very generous indeed.
Bear in mind that this game is an “unofficial” derby of sorts. Bilbao will tell you that their derbies are with Real Sociedad and Osasuna but Santander play a similar style of football and are from northern Spain too – they’re just outside of the Basque country – so this game tends to yield derby-esque results, which is why there’s often surprises in games between these two sides. However, the odds do represent good value tonight in my opinion given the excellent away form of Racing Santander.
Verdict: Lay Athletic Club de Bilbao at 5/6.
Helsingborgs vs IFK Goteborg – away win at 6/4.
This is a big call as IFK Goteborg don’t have a great record at Helsingborgs with their last Allsvenskan win here coming in 2005. However, times have changed – Helsingborgs are on a slippery slope downwards and appear very short on goalscoring ability. Indeed, it’s only Helsingborgs’ clean sheets that have done them proud this season because if they’d conceded then they’d still be without a win. Unfortunately for Helsingborgs, they’re finally facing a side that can and probably will score against them today. IFK Goteborg appear to be in the driving seat to win this year’s Allsvenskan despite it being very early in the day to say so with AIK Solna drawing constant blanks, Kalmar having sold their best players, and Elfsborg Boras looking a tad short on overall ability. IFK Goteborg still have prolific goalscorer Hysen so I think they’ve got enough to do a lot of damage tonight. It’s going to be a tight game and one that is naturally closely-fought between rivals but I think there’s value in the away win for what I can only describe as a frankly superior IFK Goteborg side.
Verdict: IFK Goteborg to win at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Cambuur Leeuwarden, Bohemians.
Recommended bets:
Pirin Blagoevgrad, Kaiserslautern, and Newcastle United at 5/1.
Bohemians, Cambuur Leeuwarden, and Poli Timisoara at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
River Plate vs Argentinos Juniors (6) 1-2
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana vs Lokomotiv Sofia (8) 0-2
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Chernomorets Burgas (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava vs Slavia Prague (7) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Midtylland (6) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 0-1
English Premier League:
Manchester City vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
English Championship:
Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest (8) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
AS Monaco vs Auxerre (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Le Havre vs Guingamp (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Kaiserslautern vs 1860 Munich (8) under 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Bohemians (7) 0-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Oss (9) -1.75 handicap
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen vs Sandefjord (5) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Poli Timisoara vs Vaslui (7) 2-0
Brasov vs CFR Cluj (6) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Geylang United (6) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Racing Santander (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborgs vs IFK Goteborg (6) 0-1
Orebro vs Mjallby Solvesborg (4) 1-1
GAIS Goteborg vs AIK Solna (6) 0-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Yverdon Sport vs Winterthur (5) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor (7) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!