Portimonense vs Sporting Braga
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Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between newly-promoted Portimonense and supposed title-contenders Sporting Braga. As expected, Portimonense are struggling to battle against relegation and also as expected, Braga aren’t fulfilling their potential, sat in seventh place in the Liga Sagres with more losses than victories.
Portimonense’s last game was a rather amusing encounter with fellow relegation stragglers Vitoria Setubal, which they lost 3-4. The result in itself is a perfect example of why their season has gone wrong; they’ve conceded too many goals. Scoring goals hasn’t been an issue for Portimonense, most notably at home, which is particularly evident when viewing the information that only SL Benfica, Porto, and today’s opponents Sporting Braga have scored more home goals than Portimonense have. However, no other side in the Liga Sagres has conceded as many goals as they have overall. Portimonense actually average conceding nearly two goals per home game and given that they have scored in all but two of their home games in the Liga Sagres this season, it should come as no surprise that Portimonense’s home games tend to go over 2.5 goals. Five out of Portimonense’s eight home games have gone over 2.5 goals and their last four consecutive home games have all gone over 2.5 goals so I see a good foundation for over 2.5 goals tonight, especially with integral defender Di Fabio absent for this game.
Visitors Sporting Braga aren’t to be relied heavily upon, however. Their UEFA Champions League campaign may be naught more than a memory now but there are still problems at this club that cannot be undone by a winter break alone. They’ve sold star striker Matheus to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk and number one goalkeeper Felipe to Flamengo and if the rumours are correct then these aren’t the last notable departures for Braga. Those two departures alone are going to cause ruptures in what is a usually stable squad so don’t expect miracles from them in the near future. They’ve looked fragile at best this season but important players leaving threatens to tear this team apart so don’t go misplacing your faith in this side. Nonetheless, strikers Lima and Cesar should have enough to score against a woeful Portimonense defence today but similarly, Portimonense should have enough to score against a poor Braga defence. Braga miss Echiejile and Silvio from defence today (both big blows), not to mention Aguiar and Vandrinho from midfield (further big blows) so I don’t expect much from them today at all.
If I had more faith in Portimonense then I’d DNB them here but I just don’t; they concede too many goals. Frankly, anything can happen in this game and I won’t be surprised so good luck if you do pick a winner here. However, over 2.5 goals at 5/4 looks a steal for this game in my eyes, especially with lots of key players missing for both sides in defence.
Team news – Portimonense miss Di Fabio, Joao Paulo, and Wakaso whereas Braga miss Elton, Vandrinho, Aguiar, Madrid, Silvio, and Echiejile.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Australia vs South Korea – both teams to score at evens.
Unlike the vast majority of people, seemingly, I personally have the opinion that Australia have brought a better squad to the Asian Cup than South Korea. Australia have brought a whole host of experienced regulars whereas South Korea have brought some experienced regulars and a lot of emerging talent. Don’t get me wrong – against most opponents, it won’t matter for South Korea because they’ve still some ability – but against a good side like Australia, I anticipate them struggling.
South Korea laboured to an opening game win against Bahrain, winning 2-1. A red card for defender Tae-Hwi Kwak means that he misses this game against Australia through suspension and was a rather a good indication of South Korea not having everything their own way against Bahrain. Bahrain are a decent side so don’t misunderstand me here but South Korea are not as strong as usual so don’t make that mistake here.
I was considering taking the Australia win here, in all honesty, but I’ve decided to evade it on the principle that the Asian Cup thus far has produced a good number of surprises. Australia were utterly dominant against India and should bring that momentum into this game.
However, what that leaves me with is the possibility of both sides scoring in this game. For me, taking both sides to score at evens is a very good price. Australia have the quality edge here and should make it count whereas South Korea have a very strong midfield and should create enough chances for their young attackers to score. Therefore, my call is for both sides to score in this game.
Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I cannot deny that the away win intrigued me at such generous odds but with no Kagawa available for Dortmund, I’m going to overlook it.
Neither side has played a competitive game for some time so this should be an interesting game today. Leverkusen have struggled to win at home this season due to stupid and/or suicidal defending and that’s unlikely to change for today’s game. However, Leverkusen’s squad is almost at full-strength against with Kiessling almost back and Ballack nearly back too. Full-back Kadlec misses this game for Leverkusen through suspension but will return soon enough so Leverkusen are a side to be wary of in the near future, despite their unconvincing home record.
Six out of Leverkusen’s nine home games in the Bundesliga have gone over 2.5 goals and given that four out of the last five meetings between these two sides at the BayArena have gone over 2.5 goals, over 2.5 goals tonight has to be taken seriously here. Both sides will have ample opportunities to score, given the rusty nature of both sides, so we should hopefully see those chances converted in this game.
Leverkusen have the firepower if Helmes shows up in Kiessling’s absence and they should score at least once against a dubious Dortmund defence. Dortmund without Kagawa isn’t the same but the likes of Zidan can cover for the Japanese international adequately enough. Dortmund still have magical Sahin, handful Lewandowski, and Paraguayan international Barrios in their ranks so I still expect a lot from them today. Six out of Dortmund’s nine Bundesliga away games this season have gone over 2.5 goals as they score freely. Indeed, the only times that their away games have gone under 2.5 goals is when they’ve either not scored or not conceded, amusingly, so if both sides score in this game then we really should see the game clear 2.5 goals easily.
It’s always dangerous to fearlessly enter a game of such magnitude with neither side having played a competitive game for some time. However, I think the odds are good enough to take a chance on today. Both sides will attack relentlessly and both have the firepower to score goals so for me, over 2.5 goals is a good bet tonight.
Team news – Leverkusen miss Kadlec, Kiessling, and Ballack whereas Dortmund miss Kagawa, Le Tallec, Kehl, and have doubts over Weidenfeller.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Bahrain, Siena, Zwolle.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
Australia vs South Korea (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Bahrain vs India (8) -1.5 handicap
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs North Queensland Fury (7) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Colchester United vs Bournemouth (6)
Brentford vs Exeter City (5)
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (5) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Greuther Furth (5)
Union Berlin vs Alemannia Aachen (6)
Italian Serie B:
Siena vs Pescara (8)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Monterrey (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch (6) both sides tos core
Veendam vs Telstar (6)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Dordrecht ’90 (6) over 2.5 goals
Zwolle vs Emmen (9) -1.5 handicap
Volendam vs MVV Maastricht (7)
RKC Waalwijk vs FC Eindhoven (7) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (5) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Portimonense vs Sporting Braga (5) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Girona vs Numancia (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!