Portugal U21 vs Greece U21
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier between Portugal U21 and Greece U21. Portugal U21 are considered to be one of the better U21 sides in Europe but they’re certainly not looking it currently. Greece U21 are a respectable side but aren’t generally considered amongst the best.
With just two goals in their past three games, it’s not difficult to see why Portugal U21 haven’t won any of their last three games. They lost 2-1 to today’s opponents Greece U21 in Greece, which was a disappointing start to this particular run of games. However, a draw in Republic of Macedonia in what was a difficult game but one that they really should have won was yet another weak result for Portugal U21. Most recently, they lost to one of the best U21 sides in Europe – England U21. Whereas this loss isn’t exactly criminal, it was disappointing from the perspective that an attacking Portugal U21 didn’t even manage to score against an England U21 side that they can match and that had conceded five goals in their three previous games.
Greece U21 have impressed me ever since they played England U21 off the park in Greece but somehow failed to win the game. They’re unbeaten in nine U21 games now and have won five of their last six. Much like their senior team, they enjoy containing opponents before landing the fatal blow and then holding the lead. In the tactical sense, Greece U21 are one of the most astute U21 sides in Europe currently, which is a fundamental part of my call for this game today.
To put it bluntly – Portugal U21 aren’t playing well, they’re conceding goals too easily and they’re not scoring enough goals. When Portugal U21 don’t play well, their lack of natural strikers tends to be severely exposed and this looks to be the case again. Greece U21 are playing very good containing football currently and have scored in every game they’ve played in since 2006.
Verdict: Laying Portugal U21 at 6/5 looks a very good bet for me today!
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Luxembourg U21 vs Italy U21
Hosts Luxembourg U21 are amongst the rubbing rags of U21 sides, which is only to be expected. However, it’s becoming increasingly rare that Luxembourg U21 take a beating from sides. For instance, consider that they’ve not conceded more than two goals in a game for their last three games, one of which was an away win at Bosnia-Herzegovina U21. Only two sides in their last seven opponents have scored more than two goals against them in a game and their 2-0 defeat away to Italy U21 a couple of months ago is certainly what I’d call a respectable result for them.
Visitors Italy U21 are without a doubt the better side here but they’re struggling to show it. They’ve won just three of their last eight games and haven’t scored more than two goals in any of those games. In that time, they’ve managed to beat Luxembourg U21 2-0 at home, draw 1-1 at home to Bosnia-Herzegovina U21, lose 2-1 to Wales U21, and lose 2-0 away to Hungary U21. My point from this list is that they struggle to score goals past sides that they are considerably better than, a period which is mirrored by their senior team.
This bet is delicate to say the least because Italy U21 are a superior team – no questions asked. I’m relying on Luxembourg U21 being their usual tenacious selves, not scoring as per usual, and Italy U21 playing their usual efficient game with few goals scored. Nonetheless, with the above information in mind, taking under 2.5 goals looks a good call today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens
Northern Ireland U21 vs Czech Republic U21
Northern Ireland U21 understandably aren’t one of the good U21 sides in Europe but some of their results lately have been what can only be described as “embarassing”. Two defeats to an average Iceland U21, one of which was a humiliating 6-2 defeat at home leaves the Northern Ireland U21 side looking weaker than it has for some time. They’ve conceded fourteen goals in their last five games, which tells you all that you need to know about their defensive frailties. However, they did manage to claim a respectable 1-1 draw at home to Germany U21 last match, who are the reigning champions of the UEFA European U21 Championships. This result leaves Northern Ireland in decent stead for this game so I expect them to at least muster a goal.
An impressive performance away to Germany U21 was what genuinely alerted me to the potential that is arising through the ranks of Czech Republic U21. Their 2-1 win in Germany meant that they’d then won four consecutive games, scoring fourteen goals along the way. Their momentum is strong and they’re starting to play very intelligent football, which is good to see from a competitive perspective.
Overall, the combination of a poor Northern Ireland U21 defence and a lethal Czech Republic U21 attack really should spell out a scoreline that is over 2.5 goals, hence my call for this game today!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6
Brentford vs Gateshead
Hosts Brentford were surprisingly held to a 2-2 draw at Gateshead in the initial tie between these two sides a week or two ago. Naturally, the spirit of the FA Cup played a strong part in this mismatch of two sides playing out a draw. Whereas Brentford are struggling in League One currently, they’re still head and shoulders the better side, which goes without saying really! No matter how well Brentford play, however, they rarely score more than two goals in a game. I can’t see Brentford not scoring in this game and I ultimately expect them to progress with the extra ability they have and their goalscoring potency of late.
Visitors Gateshead may have been inspired for the initial tie but a cold night in London is sure to dampen that inspiration. The prestigious history of shocks within the FA Cup means this bet is far from definite but the quality difference is sure to have an impact in this tie. Gateshead are far from goal-shy themselves but an early goal for Brentford in this tie will surely end their realistic hopes in this game. Griffin Park is a difficult place to go and play football, particularly as only two sides have won there this year (or three if you want to be pedantic and include Brentford!).
As I mentioned earlier – this is a dicey call but I can see Brentford being a lot better prepared for this game both mentally and tactically, which should ultimately end any resistance that geordies Gateshead have to offer. I can’t see Brentford blowing them away because they simply don’t do that to sides so taking under 2.5 goals in this game could be a good bet tonight.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Armenia U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21 (6) 0-1
Albania U21 vs Belarus U21 (7) 0-1
Lithuania U21 vs England U21 (8) -1.75 handicap
Luxembourg U21 vs Italy U21 (9) 0-2
Netherlands U21 vs Spain U21 (5) 1-1
Portugal U21 vs Greece U21 (6) 1-1
San Marino U21 vs Germany U21 (10) -2.75 handicap
Northern Ireland U21 vs Czech Republic U21 (8) over 2.5 goals
France U21 vs Slovenia U21 (8) -1.75 handicap
English FA Cup:
Brentford vs Gateshead (6) under 2.5 goals
Morecambe vs Carlisle United (7) 0-2
Mansfield Town vs Forest Green Rovers (7) 1-0
Stevenage Borough vs Port Vale (6) 0-1
Leyton Orient vs Tranmere Rovers (6) 1-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Kecskemeti TE (8) 2-0
International Friendlies:
Qatar vs Belgium (5) 1-1
South Africa vs Jamaica (6) 0-0
Slovakia vs Chile (6) over 2.5 goals
Oman vs Brazil (7) under 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Sporting Covilha vs Santa Clara (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!