Preston North End vs Derby County
FreeToday’s featured game is the Championship match between Preston North End and Derby County. Hosts Preston have been on a dismal run of late but will look to make amends today against a Derby side that has been very consistent this season in terms of being good at home and atrocious away!
Hosts Preston are without a win in six games now but I don’t feel they’re playing quite as badly as that record might suggest. I consider four or even five of those fixtures to be tough ones at the best of time so I feel Preston are a little underrated currently. No doubt they’re bruised from such a torrid time but their ability remains unquestionable throughout and it’s only a matter of time before they bounce back. This is Preston’s real chance to bounce back against a side that cannot play away from home so they’ve only got themselves to blame if they fail to win this game tonight.
Visitors Derby County enter this game on the back of a hectic 2-2 draw with West Bromwich Albion in their last game but as usual, their good results come at home. Away from home they’ve already suffered seven defeats in nine games, drawing the other two. Derby average conceding just under two goals per away game and have the worst goalscoring record away from home in the division, averaging just over a goal per every two away games. I don’t know why some sides are like this but I’m happy to take advantage of something that is really very consistent indeed.
Basically, this should be a fairly routine home win for the better side. The only thing that goes against them is momentum because if Preston are in form then you certainly wouldn’t see odds this good anywhere near this fixture!
Verdict: Preston North End to win at 10/11.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Maccabi Haifa vs Girondins de Bordeaux – away win at 15/8.
Hosts Maccabi Haifa have already been confirmed as the bottom club in this group. They’ve claimed zero points from a potential fifteen and are the only side in the competition that still hasn’t scored a goal in the group stages. They’ve not been getting battered by any of their opponents but they have been consistently losing. They play some decent football and often make life hard for their opponents but that alone simply isn’t enough because your opponents are always going to get a chance at somepoint and if they’re scoring and you’re not then you’re going to lose the game, ultimately. Maccabi Haifa are playing for nothing other than pride here but they’ve got a very difficult and efficient machine to play against, which certainly won’t be easy.
Laurent Blanc’s Girondins de Bordeaux have already been confirmed as group winners and will enter this game with a little less motivation than normal. Nonetheless, Blanc still manages to get the best from his side, which is something I expect to see tonight. Bordeaux have taken a surprisingly strong squad to Israel for this game despite an important game looming with Olympique Lyonnais at weekend. Blanc was always a very thorough footballer and it now seems that trait of his is repeated as a manager with Bordeaux looking set to go all out to win this game. Gourcuff looks set to start after a spell on the sidelines with injury and his creativity will give the visitors a big boost because he pulls all the strings for Bordeaux, generally.
Although neither side has to do anything in this game, it’s frankly beyond me as to why the bookies favour the home win here. For me, there’s potentially some great value in the away win at 15/8.
Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win at 15/8.
VFL Wolfsburg vs Manchester United – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
VFL Wolfsburg cannot defend. I’m afraid I simply cannot put it any other way. Wolfsburg have conceded ten goals in their last five games in all competitions so it’s no surprise that they’ve only one once during that time. How Wolfsburg have conceded three at home to Nurnberg and two at home to Freiburg is beyond me; it’s simply shocking defending. Visitors Manchester United are a far more complete side but with massive injury worries defensively. Indeed, the crisis is now so bad that United have taken a nineteen man squad to Germany for this game, thirteen of which are midfielders. Patrice Evra is the only recognised defender for the English champions and big names like Van Der Sar, Rooney, and Giggs haven’t even travelled as they’re being rested. Both sides are going to attack because neither are capable of defending in this game. Wolfsburg need the win so will have to throw men forwards (as if they weren’t already potent enough!) and United will undoubtedly hit them on the counter. One thing’s for sure, however – this game really should beat the 2.5 goals mark tonight!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Huracan vs Boca Juniors – away win at 5/6.
Hosts Huracan have now lost four straight games and have the worst goalscoring record in the whole of the Primera Division with a tally of just eleven goals in seventeen games. They’ve already lost five out of their nine home games this season, winning just twice, and don’t look likely to improve that with just one goal scored in their last four games whilst conceding nine times.
Visitors Boca Juniors are the better side here although their form of late (and throughout this campaign) doesn’t suggest it nearly as much as it should. Boca have won just once in their last five games, drawing twice and losing twice along the way. However, unlike their hosts, Boca have at least been scoring goals with six goals scored in their last five games. Whereas this kind of form certainly isn’t what we’ve come to expect from Boca, they remain the better side and have a better level of potency than the hosts have.
Although this game has the potential to be very droll and low-scoring, Boca are the only side for me that are capable of scoring in this game so we should see a fairly routine away win for the better side here.
Verdict: Boca Juniors to win at 5/6.
Salernitana vs Empoli – away win at 7/5.
Hosts Salernitana must now be getting very worried about their status in Serie B as they’re still rooted to the bottom of the division after sixteen games. They’ve won just once this season, losing a hefty eleven games along the way. They’ve lost three of their last five games and average conceding nearly two goals per game. Salernitana have already lost five out of seven home games in this campaign and their record doesn’t look likely to improve against what is one of Serie B’s better sides.
Visitors Empoli are very much a home side but they have to fancy their chances against a woeful Salernitana tonight, particularly with their strong level of momentum. Empoli have only won once away from home this season, drawing three times and losing four times. Empoli concede more goals away from home than they’d like and don’t score nearly as many as they should. Atypically, this kind of record would discourage me from backing them but their recent form should have enough to see them win here with three wins in their last four games, remaining unbeaten throughout that run.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Empoli have the better side here and really should secure their second away win of the season against what is unanimously the worst side in Serie B currently.
Verdict: Empoli to win at 7/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Juventus vs Bayern Munich (7) 2-1
Maccabi Haifa vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) under 2.5 goals
VFL Wolfsburg vs Manchester United (6) over 2.5 goals
Besiktas JK vs CSKA Moscow (5) 1-1
FC Zurich vs AC Milan (9) 0-2
Olympique de Marseille vs Real Madrid (6) over 2.5 goals
Chelsea vs APOEL Nicosia (9) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid vs Porto (5) 0-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Boca Juniors (7) 0-1
Colon de Santa Fe vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (8) 2-1
Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 1-0
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Vienna II vs Gratkorn (5)
English Championship:
Doncaster Rovers vs Sheffield Wednesday (7)
Ipswich Town vs Peterborough United (7)
Leicester City vs Bristol City (5)
Preston North End vs Derby County (7)
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest (4)
Swansea City vs Plymouth Argyle (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Cardiff City (8) over 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough vs Blackpool (7)
Reading vs Crystal Palace (5)
English FA Cup:
Stockport County vs Torquay United (6) 1-1
Aldershot Town vs Tranmere Rovers (5) 1-2
Luton Town vs Rotherham United (4) 1-0
Barnet vs Accrington Stanley (6) 2-1
Barrow vs Oxford United (7) 1-2
Leeds United vs Kettering Town (8) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Frosinone vs Brescia (7)
Grosseto vs Albinoleffe (6)
Reggina vs Sassuolo (6)
Salernitana vs Empoli (7)
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Beira-Mar vs Gil Vicente (7)
Romanian Liga:
Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!