Qarabagh vs Wisla Krakow
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Azerbaijan between Qarabagh and Wisla Krakow. Qarabagh have been stealthily progressing in European football for a couple of years now whereas Wisla Krakow have been on a decline in European competition in recent years so this should be an interesting game today.
Qarabagh have played eleven games in European competition over the past couple of years and the only side to beat them was a fortunate Twente Enschede side in the Netherlands. I’ll accept that Qarabagh haven’t exactly played the cream of European football along the way but they have played sides that are largely better than they are so give them the respect that they deserve here. Qarabagh dominated the first leg in Poland against Wisla Krakow and deservedly came away with a 1-0 win. Qarabagh have won three out of their five home games in European competition over the past two years with their list of sides beaten including Norwegian giants Rosenborg BK, Finnish title contenders FC Honka Espoo, and Macedonian giants Metalurg Skopje. Qarabagh not only convert their chances but they play solid possession football that they frankly shouldn’t be capable of playing given the standard of their league. However, Qarabagh have broken the expectations of them so many times now that it’d be foolish to underestimate them here. I’m a little concerned that Qarabagh don’t need the win to progress here but the odds on the home win are definitely good enough to consider.
In addition to the above information, we also have to consider the somewhat laughable fact that Wisla Krakow are favourites for this game. Wisla are undoubtedly the bigger side but despite Kasperczak still being at Wisla even now, the heady days of Wisla’s success is long forgotten as they struggle consistently to break the rabbit warren of the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers year after year. The general concensus is that his tactical approach is outdated in European football as times have changed since the days when Wisla were successful and it shows. We can’t blame only the manager for their displays, however – Wisla’s players individually were appalling in the first leg. Jovanic was unconvincing in goal and his defence barely linked up with him well. Bunoza misses this game through suspension following a ridiculous challenge in the first leg and it’s likely that Diaz will replace him. However, returning to the manager – why on earth would you play Pawel Brozek in defence? Seriously, he provides one of the greater attacking threats for Wisla with his lightning pace and incisive finishing! Brozek is one of the few players who could do something for Wisla in humid Azeri conditions today but it remains to be seen where he plays, particularly with important defender Cleber still out injured. Wisla’s defence is weakened with Glowacki having moved on in summer and with Wisla’s general play entirely ineffectual against their Azeri opponents in the firsg leg, you have to fear for them today. Incidentally, Gargula also misses this game through injury.
So – what to make of this game? Wisla aren’t as good as they used to be and Qarabagh are a lot better than they used to be and that in itself should allow for closer odds. Wisla being favourites for this game can only be on name alone as Qarabagh totally outplayed them in Poland. I have some concerns over Qarabagh scoring today as they don’t necessarily need to so you may want to cover this bet with draw no bet. However, missing players and woeful defending from Wisla Krakow really should give the Azeri hosts ample opportunities to increase their lead on aggregate so I fancy the straight win for Qarabagh at 15/8.
Verdict: Qarabagh to win at 15/8.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Aris Salonika vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
The scoreline in the first leg of this tie was perhaps a little flattering for Greek side Aris. They started the game brightly and made heavy use of their experience against a Jagiellonia Bialystok side playing their first ever European game. Jagiellonia didn’t play badly overall however so you’d expect a closer game in the second leg. However, the news from the Jagiellonia camp isn’t good news at all and will certainly place hosts Aris in the driving seat. Jagiellonia’s key defender Cionek misses the game with an ankle injury and another important defender Hus also misses the game through injury. Jagiellonia must therefore call upon Lewczuk (who had a nightmare against Aris in the first leg) and he’ll surely be nervous as a result. To top it off, Jagiellonia have to start young goalkeeper Slowik because of disciplinary issues within the Jagiellonia camp which mean atypical number one Gikiewicz will not play. Experienced striker Trytko will be replaced by youngster Pawlowski and striker Maycon will not play as he seeks a transfer abroad. Jagiellonia also may be without Hermes, who has some niggling injuries although could still be fit to play. All in all, Jagiellonia are suffering from bad luck and possibly a lack of desire in the competition as a whole as there look to be too many youngsters in this side for Jagiellonia to achieve anything tonight. Aris are fairly experienced in Europe and Salonika is a tough enough venue (as Ajax discovered at PAOK last night) so I think Aris can win this game by at least two goals. Either way, it’s worth a shot at evens, in my opinion!
Verdict: Aris Salonika to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Austria Vienna vs Ruch Chorzow – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Having won the first leg 3-1 in Poland, Austria Vienna are in a very comfortable position here, particularly as the superior of the two sides. In this scenario, I generally wouldn’t bother with handicaps but the news that Ruch are allegedly resting players for this game makes me immediately lean towards the handicap. Not only does it mean that some of Ruch’s better players will be saved for their weekend game with Lechia Gdansk but it also shows a lack of interest in the tournament from the club themselves, which may well lessen the motivation of the players as a result. Since the first leg, Ruch have also parted with star striker Sobiech, who has been signed by Polonia Warsaw. It’s rumoured that he was sold so Ruch could actually afford to pay for the loans that they took out to travel to Kazakhstan and Austria respectively, which should give you some idea of the situation that Ruch Chorzow are currently in.. The loss of Sobiech coupled with the loss of Niedzielan will cause Ruch great problems, not only for this game but also domestically so it’s perhaps understandable why Ruch would consider this game a “write off” and focus on their domestic aspirations instead. Austria Vienna may rest players here but they’re still twice the side that Ruch are so I expect quite a heavy home win here by two or three goals and the odds are good enough to take with that in mind.
Verdict: Austria Vienna to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
Zrinjski Mostar vs OB Odense – Zrinjski Mostar to win either half at 10/11.
This will probably be game of the evening with neither side able to defend competently in European football but with both sides bringing plenty of goals to their respective games. The first leg ended in a 5-3 win for OB Odense and a similar scoreline tonight would not surprise me one bit. I saw OB’s defeat against Horsens on monday night and was disappointed with their lack of interest in the game as they seemed to prefer to conserve their energies for tonight instead. However, what was most noticeable in that game was how easily Horsens broke through their defence and Horsens have arguably the worst attack in the Superligaen so OB don’t defend as well as their records show at the moment. OB’s defence is particularly susceptible against pace which Zrinjski have so the Bosnian hosts could take the initiative tonight and put OB to the sword. However, the other side of the coin is that the likes of Utaka and Absalonsen are lightning themselves and on the counter-attack OB will do plenty of damage themselves. This game has over 2.5 goals written all over it but the odds don’t interest me. What does interest me, however, is Zrinjski to win either half at 10/11. OB don’t have to do a lot here to progress and I fancy Zrinjski to have some fun against their defence so they should be able to win at least one of the halves here. A bet I’ve personally considered for fun is Zrinjski to lead at half-time but lose by full-time at 20/1 – the odds are good enough to consider it at least! Either way, I think it’s worth a punt on Zrinjski winning either half at 10/11 – they’re a strong home side and OB’s defence doesn’t convince me at the moment.
Verdict: Zrinjski Mostar to win either half at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Poli Timisoara, Aris Salonika, Racing Genk, Maritimo Funchal, VFB Stuttgart, Liverpool, Juventus, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Etoile, Helsingborgs.
Recommended bets:
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Maritimo Funchal, Austria Vienna, and VFB Stuttgart at 2/1.
Austria Vienna -1.5 handicap and Qarabagh at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Teteks Tetovo vs Elfsborg Boras (4) both sides to score
OFK Belgrade vs Galatasaray (5) 1-2
Banik Ostrava vs Dnepr Mogilev (7) 2-0
Zestaponi vs Karpaty Lviv (6) 1-1
Qarabagh vs Wisla Krakow (7) 2-0
Dinamo Minsk vs Maccabi Haifa (5) 1-0
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Sturm Graz (7) 1-1
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-0
Apollon Limassol vs Sibir Novosibirsk (5) 2-1
IFK Goteborg vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 0-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Spartak Subotica (8) -1.5 handicap
Poli Timisoara vs MyPa Anjalankoski (8) 2-0
Brondby vs Buducnost Podgorica (7) 3-1
Lausanne Sports vs Randers (4) over 2.5 goals
Luzern vs FC Utrecht (5) 0-1
Levski Sofia vs Kalmar (5) 0-0
Aris Salonika vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (8) -1.5 handicap
Racing Genk vs Inter Turku (8) 2-0
Besiktas JK vs Viktoria Plzen (8) 2-1
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Olympiakos Piraeus (4) 0-1
Jablonec vs APOEL Nicosia (6) 0-0
Bangor City vs Maritimo Funchal (8) 0-2
Slovan Bratislava vs Red Star Belgrade (6) 2-1
Austria Vienna vs Ruch Chorzow (9) -1.5 handicap
VFB Stuttgart vs Molde FK (8) over 2.5 goals
Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 2-1
Liverpool vs Rabotnicki Skopje (10) -1.5 handicap
Cliftonville vs CSKA Sofia (5) under 2.5 goals
Juventus vs Shamrock Rovers (9) 2-0
Hibs vs Maribor (4) 1-2
Montpellier HSC vs Gyori ETO FC (7) 1-0
Motherwell vs Aalesund (5) 1-1
Zrinjski Mostar vs OB Odense (5) over 2.5 goals
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Nordsjaelland (8) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Sao Paulo vs Internacional (5) 1-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Goias vs Gremio (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
PS Kemi Kings vs RoPS Rovaniemi (4)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Keflavik (6) 1-0
KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (6) over 2.5 goals
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH Hafnarfjordur (5) 2-2
Haukar Hafnarfjordur vs Selfoss (6) 0-0
UMF Grindavik vs Fram Reykjavik (4) 1-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Moss vs Ranheim (5)
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Woodlands Wellington (8) 2-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborgs vs Djurgarden (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!