Rapid Vienna vs Porto
FreeWell, it’s pleasing to see that the UEFA Europa League was profitable for once – let’s try and emulate that again tonight!
Today’s featured game is in Austria and sees Austrian giants Rapid Vienna host experienced Portuguese outfit Porto in the UEFA Europa League. A draw tonight will most likely see the hosts exit the competition and the visitors will qualify as a result. However, to confirm their place at the top of the group, Porto need to win this game and then it’s virtually sorted as I don’t envision them losing at home to CSKA Sofia in their final game.
I was quite the advocate of Rapid Vienna in the past year or two thanks to their impressive football style and clinical nature. They were a nightmare to play against as both Aston Villa and Hamburger SV respectively found out and I’d certainly make the case for them being the best Austrian side over that period. However, the departure of striker Jelavic to Rangers, striking partner Maierhofer to Wolverhampton Wanderers, and defender Jovanovic to Spartak Nalchik (most notably the former two) has damaged the side. They’re playing as a shadow of their former selves this season as a result and I think it’s a fair choice to take advantage of their laxity. Rapid Vienna towering Dutch striker Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink to replace Maierhofer and it’s worked but only sporadically so Albanian hitman Salihi is bearing the weight of being the goalscorer this season, which he’s good enough to do but it’s not enough for a game like this. Hesselink and Salihi could forge a lethal partnership with Hesselink’s aerial prowess and energetic Salihi’s dangerous pace but something’s just not clicking and Rapid Vienna are suffering as a result. Some poor displays from Finn Heikkinen have left Rapid Vienna vulnerable in midfield as he’s a key player for them and Rapid’s defence has suffered as a result, especially as defence was never their strongpoint. Rapid naturally rely on captain Hoffman a lot too but the German midfielder misses this game through injury, which is a heavy blow for a Rapid side that I personally don’t consider to be that good.
With the above in mind, it’s no surprise that I’m leaning towards the away side here. Porto have done enough to convince me that there is life after Ferreira with some good displays and as ever, the quality of their players cannot be questioned. Cristian Rodriguez and Maicon are both suspended for Porto in this game but just take a look at the quality of the squad that Porto have taken to Vienna:
Goalkeepers – Helton, Beto
Defenders – Fucile, Rolando, Sapunaru, Sereno, Otamendi
Midfielders – Moutinho, Guarin, Belluschi, Varela, Fernando, Castro, Ruben Michael, James Rodriguez
Attackers – Hulk, Falcao, Walter, Ukra
This squad is very strong indeed and there’s more than enough firepower here to destroy their hosts. Porto have already won their previous two away games in this group against CSKA Sofia and Besiktas JK respectively so their capability of winning this game isn’t in question, in my eyes. Porto are a lethal counter-attacking side with tremendous pace throughout but they can also unlock stubborn defences with some very creative players so their European experience really shows through here. Indeed, it’s that experience that places Porto amongst the favourites to do well in this competition, in my opinion – they score a lot and barely concede and that has to be recognised and respected.
To be blunt – Porto really should be a class above Rapid Vienna for this game. Rapid Vienna’s form has improved lately, admittedly, but they’re simply lacking the quality to overcome Porto here. Porto don’t have to win the game so approach with caution but they should win this game at half-pace anyway – they’ve got too many flair players in Vienna for this game for them to sit back and see what happens. For me, the away win at evens shows some good value and I actually fancy a cheeky -1.5 handicap at 13/5, although my actual bet remains the straight away win.
Verdict: Porto to win at evens.
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Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Paris Saint-Germain vs Sevilla CF – home win at 6/5.
Paris Saint-Germain have been absolutely immense so far this season and I’m not really sure how! They’ve been on their last legs for a while now for obvious reasons but somehow they’ve found a second wind and they’re looking really, really strong this year. They’re unbeaten in the UEFA Europa League group stage thus far thanks to a very impressive three clean sheets in four games. Their goalscoring record leaves a bit to be desired but nonetheless – they’re playing a very “European” brand of football and it really suits them. I still think the reliance on Hoarau is excessive for a decent-but-not-great striker but Brazilian midfielder Nene has really brought this PSG side to life this season with some heavy contributions both in the creating and scoring of goals so that’s some weight off Hoarau’s shoulders at least. It’s comforting to wily little Ludovic Giuly still pulling the strings there too – his experience is invaluable to this team and his ability is still ever-present. Midfielder Sessegnon has been making all the right noises too with plenty of interest from across the English Channel if we’re to believe the English media so I think it’s fair to pay this PSG side a lot of compliments here. They claimed a very impressive and well-earned 2-2 draw at Olympique Lyonnais in their last game, which not only demonstrates their current ability level but also their fearless attacking so it’s fair to describe PSG as very confident at the moment and why not? They’ve got every reason to be. A win in this game sees PSG guaranteed a place in the next round and I’m sure they’d prefer to it here rather than on a cold night in the Ukraine so I expect a good display from the hosts tonight.
Visitors Sevilla CF are a match for PSG (if not better) on their day but the problem is that it’s not really been “their day” at all this season. They’ve stumbled through their UEFA Europa League games by chance more than by skill although credit must be given where it’s due as they’v only lost once in their four Europa League games, which was ironically at home to their hosts tonight a month or so ago. The quality of Sevilla’s players isn’t in question but the hefty list of absentees coupled with a managerial chance hasn’t helped them and they’re struggling, even with the hero of Real Mallorca’s season last year (Manzano) in charge. Indeed, Sevilla CF have now lost back-to-back home games in the Primera Liga against Real Mallorca and Getafe respectively, two totally unacceptable defeats for a big side like Sevilla CF, especially against two sides that don’t travel well. I don’t know what’s worse for Sevilla CF – the fact that they’ve conceded five goals in those two games or the fact that they’ve thoroughly deserved to lose both games. You can point to the tactics of the new manager, the period of adjustment, or even the hefty absentee list with Navas, Fazio, Fabiano, Dragutinovic, Kone, Guarente, and Acosta on but the point has to remain that Sevilla CF do have problems at the moment and I think it’s worthwhile to attempt to capitalise on them.
All that concerns me about this game is that it’s almost too good to be true and when that happens, it generally fails, especially in the Europa League. Everything is set for a home win here and the odds are good enough to take a chance on but I cannot emphasise the public warning for betting on the UEFA Europa League enough here as it’s too “perfect” statistically – that’s almost always a disaster in reality! Nonetheless, I’ll call the home win here as PSG are good enough to do it and Sevilla are poor enough at the moment to lose it.
Probable line-ups:
PSG – Edel, Jallet, Armand, Sakho, Clement, Makelele, Chantome, Nene, Hoarau, Giuly, Luyindula
Sevilla CF – Palop, Navarro, Alexis, Caceres, Dabo, Konko, Renato, Romaric, Perotti, Negredo, Kanoute.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to win at 6/5.
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Villarreal vs Dinamo Zagreb – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I like under 2.5 goals here perhaps more than I should, really. Dinamo Zagreb have looked absolutely untouchable under new manager Vahid Halilhodzic as he’s straightened out their suspect defence and the club now boast a remarkable ten consecutive clean sheets in all competitions. It’s fair to point out that Dinamo Zagreb are the best side in Croatia but nonetheless, to do this with trips to Club Brugge and Rijeka along the way is very impressive on whatever scale you view it. Dianmo Zagreb have rarely had problems scoring goals with flambuoyant midfielders such as integral Sammir and Morales supporting pacey strikers Rukavina and Beciraj so I fancy Dinamo to cause the odd issue for the hosts tonight, especially as the hosts miss left-back Capdevilla for this game. However, we can’t overlook the gulf in class between the Prva Liga and the Primera Liga so you have to favour Villarreal here, especially on the back of a confident 0-3 win at Real Zaragoza. Villarreal have some world-class players in their side and if they show up then they should win this game although I’m not sure I’ll be interested in backing them when they’re priced as short as they are. With this group still very much open, however, Villarreal know they need to win this game so I do expect them to ultimately get the victory although in the UEFA Europa League – who knows?!
Quality-wise, Villarreal win this one but don’t underestimate Dinamo Zagreb. They’re one of the wealthiest sides in Eastern Europe, they play good football, they’re tight at the back, and they have a very good and experienced manager. I don’t think the scoreline here will be excessive – I think it’ll be a respectable scoreline. I can’t look beyond a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline here as it’s by far the lowest-scoring group in the Europa League and given the somewhat “patient” styles of both sides, I think under 2.5 goals is the way forward here.
An amusing fact for you all – Sporting Clube de Lisboa have scored more goals in the UEFA Europa League group stage than all of Villarreal’s group combined has!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
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BATE Borisov vs Dyanmo Kiev – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
BATE Borisov are 2/1 to win at home?! Unbelievable odds!
I’d make a case for BATE Borisov being at the very least an equal of Dynamo Kiev at the current time as BATE are looking very unified whereas Dynamo Kiev have seldom looked more apart. Only SL Benfica have won at BATE in BATE’s last nine European home games (both UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League) because the hosts are a nightmare to face in Belarus. Their continued domestic success leads to continuous European exposure and thus high revenue for the hosts. BATE can now afford to lose the likes of Krivets and purchase replacements and that’s what they’re starting to do. Star striker Rodionov is already proving his worth on the big stage by being one of the top goalscorers in the competition currently and with the revelation of Brazilian attacking midfielder Renan this season, BATE Borisov look very good indeed. The experience of Likhtarovich in the holding midfield role is essential for the hosts here and his long shots are usually quite useful too! BATE have Artem Kontsevoy and emerging striker Maksim Skavysh vying to partner Rodionov and both make this attack look even more dangerous. BATE have advanced from the side they were a couple of years ago whereby they defended competently without threatening the goal. BATE now attack with purpose and score goals for fun as they demonstrated by drawing 2-2 in Kiev with Dynamo Kiev a month or so ago so they’re definitely capable of doing damage here.
Visitors Dynamo Kiev may have some superior players to BATE Borisov but I’d definitely not call them a superior team here as they’re not playing well as a unit at all. In their last five games, they’ve been outdone 0-2 at home by local rivals Obolon Kiev, drawn twice (1-1 at Tavriya Simferopol and 1-1 at home to Metalist Kharkiv), battled to a 2-3 win at Stal Alchevsk from the division below in the Ukrainian Cup, and won 2-0 at home to newly-promoted Sevastopol. It’s not convincing, is it? Dynamo Kiev should terrify BATE Borisov here with the sheer variety of strikers that they have available to them but there doesn’t seem to be a consistent winning formula in the Kiev attack and that’s causing a big problem. Mozyr-born Artem Milevskiy will no doubt relish his return to his homeland of Belarus for this game and will be keen to extend his excellent run of goalscoring form of late but who will partner him? Ageing Shevchenko? Or perhaps one of the youngsters – Guilherme? Kravets? Yarmolenko? Andre? Kiev need to sort out who their main strikers are because strikers without roles become very ineffectual very quickly. Guilherme is one of the brightest talents in Eastern Europe, in my opinion, and if they lasso his ability then they’ll be a force again although he’s been out for a while. Yarmolenko is a potent threat for his tender years but Kiev aren’t facing some average UPL mugs here – they’re playing the best side in Belarus, a side that has consistently played European football for years – they’re going to need much more than this to take something from the game and I simply don’t think they’re capable of giving that type of display tonight.
I’m not of the opinion that Kiev necessarily need to win this game but they may well be as it’s better safe than sorry so Kiev have to attack here whereas hosts BATE Borisov don’t. If Kiev do attack then they’re open to the counter-attack with Rodionov, Renan, and Kontsevoy and they’re absolutely lethal in that position so I really fancy BATE here, especially as they’ve got a proven track record of breaking down resilient sides and let’s face it – Kiev can’t even be called “resilient” at the moment. Kiev frankly look uninterested whereas BATE always look interested so I’m somewhat surprised at the generous odds on show here. My call is for BATE to win with draw no bet cover as I’ll be beyond surprised to see them lose here.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
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Palermo vs Sparta Prague – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Palermo need to win this game to have any hope of qualifying for the next round of the UEFA Europa League but even their home advantage doesn’t count for as much as it normally does here. Generally, Italian sides will be a little nervous about the trip to Sicily for obvious reasons but foreign clubs aren’t really part of that. Palermo still have strong home support, don’t get me wrong, but the intimidating factor is somewhat removed. Let’s not forget that Sparta Prague have to be fearless here as a defeat here could be condemning for their UEFA Europa League aspirations. Palermo’s home record in this competition is a bit poor, in all honesty – a narrow win at home to Swiss Challenge League side Lausanne Sports and a resounding 0-3 defeat inflicted by CSKA Moscow are all they have to show from their home games in the group stage thus far with Palermo’s defence looking very vulnerable without the departed Kjaer. Palermo’s goalscoring isn’t as badly hit after the sale of Cavani as I’d imagined it would be with Javier Pastore’s creativity aiding Palermo in overcoming the departing of their star Uruguayan striker. However, Maccarone in attack isn’t filling Cavani’s boots at all and thus Palermo still do have problems to overcome. Palermo also miss Darmian, Nocerino Carrozieri, Bacinovic, Cassani, Munoz, and Hernandez for this game, five of which are frequently in the side so Palermo are not ideally placed for this game at all.
However, the gulf in class between Serie A and the Gambrinus Liga leaves me doubting Sparta Prague’s credentials in terms of them avoiding defeat here. Sparta Prague are playing very well (or were before the winter break at least!) at the moment and are scoring goals for fun with emerging Ivorian striker Wilfried running riot amongst Gambrinus Liga and UEFA Europa League defences respectively, especially with Cameroonian strike partner Kweuke making a nuisance of himself on a regular basis. Indeed, the twosome are a real handful for the majority of sides at the moment and this Palermo defence doesn’t look strong enough to deal with them. However, Sparta’s Achilles heel is that their defence entirely hinges upon veteran centre-back Tomas Repka. Repka’s ability is still very good but age is not on his side and pacey players will catch him out. Repka may be able to deal with Gambrinus Liga attackers in general but this is Serie A’s level of attackers so Palermo will almost certainly score at least once here. Hats off to Sparta Prague though – they play attacking football as they play to their strengths and with that in mind, it’s no coincidence that all four of their UEFA Europa League games in this group thus far have all gone over 2.5 goals, including a 3-2 win against Palermo in Prague about a month ago, so I expect more of the same tonight.
If you enter the 1×2 market here then you’re a braver man than I am! However, over 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot here as I expect a lot of attacking football and some shambolic defending and it’s decent value at 4/5, in my opinion.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Accumulator fodder:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund
Recommended bets:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund and Porto at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
CSKA Moscow vs Lausanne Sports (6) over 2.5 goals
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Karpaty Lviv (8) 2-1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Sevilla CF (6) 2-1
FC Utrecht vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Liverpool (6) 1-1
CSKA Sofia vs Besiktas JK (5) 1-2
Rapid Vienna vs Porto (6) 1-2
Villarreal vs Dinamo Zagreb (6) under 2.5 goals
PAOK Salonika vs Club Brugge (4) 1-0
Sheriff Tiraspol vs AZ Alkmaar (6) under 2.5 goals
BATE Borisov vs Dyanmo Kiev (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Palermo vs Sparta Prague (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Mexican Primera Division:
Santos Laguna vs Monterrey (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!