Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Valencia CF
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga game between newly-promoted Rayo Vallecano and old hands Valencia CF.
Rayo Vallecano, like all newly-promoted sides, like to make themselves hard to beat at home. To their credit, they’ve done that this season, having lost just twice in five home games. They’re actually on a very solid run defensively, too, shipping just two goals in their last five games, winning three times along the way. However, quality-wise, they’re not a side I am concerned about. Guinea hitman Bangoura has been a bit of a revelation for them this season with the youngster being hard to handle but with Rayo Vallecano, they’re either very good or very bad in the final third. You can see where their quality is with Montenegrin target man Delibasic, experienced Raul Tamudo, and ex-Liverpool youngster Pacheco to choose from up front in addition to Bangoura – and that’s overlooking Piti – but the cohesion isn’t all there yet. Additionally, barring Botelho and Michu, this midfield lacks a great deal of quality and that tends to hamstring Rayo Vallecano. As strong as their defensive record is at the moment, there’s just not enough quality there for games like this, in my view. There’s experience and they work hard but I expect Rayo to at least concede here, which would hurt them as they love their counter-attacking game much more than their calculating game!
Visitors Valencia CF are the absolute masters of winning away from home in the Primera Liga. Cue their inevitable 4-0 loss here but I’ve never come across a side that simply aren’t that good that manages to do so well away from home, year after year! Credit must go to Unai Emery for this, really, as Valencia are not a very good side nowadays. They’ve got some talented players from an attacking perspective but their defence is shoddy to say the least. However, they just keep going and their defensive record on the road is superb, to be frank. They’ve played some tough away games this season at Gijon, Mallorca, Levante etc. but always look composed enough to grind out the result. I mean “grind”, too – you’ll rarely enjoy watching Valencia play away from the Mestalla because they don’t play attractive football then! However, the likes of Soldado, Canales, Pablo Hernandez, and even emerging full-back Jordi Alba all bring a great attacking threat to Valencia that enables them to score their goals and hold the win.
I’m at a loss to explain how Emery keeps doing this but he does. Maybe Rayo Vallecano will be the spanner in their works but for me, 6/5 on Valencia beating a side that they’re not only better than but have better firepower than just appeals to me a lot here, especially given their track record in away games over the past few years.
Verdict: Valencia CF to win at 6/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Stoke City vs Blackburn Rovers – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Until this season, I’d never take over 2.5 goals at the Britannia – Stoke are a very accomplished defensive side, usually. An away game there is one of the toughest in the Premier League, in my view – their fans are very loud and Stoke’s style of play is physically very demanding for opponents. You have to play very well to win at Stoke, basically.
However, I don’t know if it’s the pressures of dealing with European football or whether it’s integrating new players and balancing squad rotation correctly but Pulis’ men are playing horribly at the back. They seem to have lost all of their knowledge and precision from a defensive perspective. When you can say that the only sides with a worse defensive record than Stoke in the Premier League are those in the bottom three then you know that Stoke aren’t doing the business. That’s perhaps not been as evident at home this season, on the statistics front, at least. However, looking at their recent games, it’s something that will start to show in the near future. I mean, just look at their recent record – fourteen goals conceded in four Premier League games. Considering that five of those were against out-of-form Bolton Wanderers and that six were at home against newly-promoted Queens Park Rangers and over-achieving but a fairly average Newcastle United side, you really have to be concerned for Stoke here. They should win this one if they remember how to defend but they’ve not been strong at the back for ages so why start today?
Blackburn are in a bad way with the fans continually protesting against Kean but they’re also not in a great way on the pitch as they’re rather short of quality in some key areas. However, one light at the end of the tunnel for Blackburn is the form of Nigerian striker Yakubu. We all know how good he can be and when he’s in-form, this guy just scores goals for fun. A shaky Stoke defence will not relish the prospect of picking him up, I’m quite sure. Blackburn have got some decent creative players and to be fair to the visitors, they’re working very hard for their boss Kean in light of the pressure put upon him by the supporters. Typically, this can have one of two affects – it can either make the team making silly mistakes or it can make them excel themselves. Blackburn have recently been doing both, hence going from the sublime to the ridiculous against Wigan in their recent 3-3 draw at the DW Stadium. Blackburn have got goals in them right now, though, and points are a must as nobody wants to be bottom of the unforgiving Premier League come Christmas time – few escape it after that.
Therefore, I expect a bit of an open game here between two sides that really need the points for varying reasons. Both sides have their own methods of being effective in front of goal and neither side can defend for shit at the moment so although this should be a 1-0 in any average season, this really isn’t an average season so I’m rolling with over 2.5 goals at 9/10 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Debreceni VSC vs Zalaegerszegi TE – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at evens.
Quality gap – that’s the name of the game here.
A couple of seasons ago, the quality gap between these two sides was considerably less than it is now but with eight losses from eight away games, it’s easy to see that ZTE are in dire straits. ZTE average conceding over three goals per away game right now and some of their mistakes at the back are just incredulous, they really are. Boss Prukner is concerned about morale and is it any wonder? This side are not creating chances, not scoring goals, and find it physically impossible to hold any kind of defensive shape. ZTE are cannon fodder this season due to a lack of quality and them playing Debreceni VSC away from home today in front of Debreceni VSC’s fanatic fans is like throwing Christians to the lions, in my view. The hosts didn’t impress against improving Vasas Budapest lately, missing some rather simple chances, it has to be said. However, Debreceni VSC at home and Debreceni VSC away are two very different sides as their records show. I mean, seven wins and one draw from eight home games in the Soproni Liga this season whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per home game speaks volumes for the offensive power of Debreceni VSC. Coulibaly is in great form in attack and emerging youngster Bodi is doing a great deal for the team from midfield too. There’s attacking quality all over this team and it tends to show in their home games so why not again today?
This is the last Soproni Liga game for Debreceni VSC before the winter break and with the possibility of pushing further away from Gyori ETO FC (who face a tough trip to Ujpest) today, you really have to fancy the hosts to destroy their opponents. ZTE should concede at least three goals here so for me, taking Debreceni VSC to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at evens is well worth it here.
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at evens.
SL Benfica vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa – home win at 5/6.
You know, there are two types of derby that I try to avoid betting/tipping on and they’re Greek derbies and Portuguese derbies. I tipped Olympiakos to beat Panathinaikos lately in Greece and it was a draw so why I’m getting involved here I’m not quite sure!
Superstition aside though, I do expect Benfica to win this Lisbon derby. Sporting have improved dramatically since appointing a competent coach and signing players with actual quality and they’re back to being a force again, in my view. They’re still a few years behind Porto and Benfica, in my eyes, but they’re definitely on the up as results this season indicate.
However, Benfica have produced yet another solid attacking side that can outscore any side in Portugal on their day. Ex-Barcelona youngster Nolito has stolen a few headlines, as has Spanish U21 starlet Rodrigo, and that’s not even including wily finisher Saviola or Paraguayan powerhouse Cardozo, of whom I am a very big fan. Witsel, Aimar, Gaitan, Cesar – there’s more than enough creativity in that midfield to make things happen so it’s no surprise that Benfica have grown accustomed to outscoring sides. I’m a bit concerned about the fitness of Luisao after he was taken off at Old Trafford in Benfica’s 2-2 draw with Manchested United earlier this week as he’s the only competent defender that Benfica have but let’s face it – Benfica win their home games because they score a lot of goals, not because they produce a composed tactical display.
Their fierce rivals have adopted exactly the same style as Benfica – all out attack. Dutch striker van Wolfswinkel has finally settled in and seven goals in nine games shows how important he’s rapidly becoming to the green-and-whites. We all know how good a playmaker Matias Fernandez is – Chile is the place to go for playmakers right now! – and the signing of Sevilla CF left-winger Diego Capel was a pure bargain, in my eyes. We’ve not even looked at Elias, Bojinov, or Jeffren and already Sporting’s offensive line-up looks far more dangerous than it did last season. However, their defence is an issue too and unlike their hosts, they are lacking experience in this kind of game and I think it’ll show, too.
Derbies are hard to call but Sporting’s recent games with Benfica have all been very one-sided results-wise with the red-and-white half of the city taking all of the spoils. The gap is closing again but Benfica are still the better side and I think there’s value in Benfica exploiting that at 5/6 today.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win at 5/6.
Sportul Studentesc vs Vaslui – away win at 4/5.
This game entirely depends on which Vaslui turn up. Sportul are not a good side – they’re hard-working and hate losing so they’re even more tenacious when they fall behind. However, put them against a side that scores goals regularly and Sportul will generally lose, hence their two home losses this season coming against league leaders Dinamo Bucharest and attack-minded Universitatea Cluj. Everyone else that has come to play Sportul has either not been capable of scoring goals or not tried to, hence so many draws. The statistics portray Sportul to be a better side than they are, which is something that I’m hoping Vaslui takes advantage of today.
I have just one concern about Vaslui. There’s only ever one concern to have about Vaslui, really, and that’s motivation. Put them against a big side and you’d be amazed as to why they’ve not won the Liga for years in a row. Put them against a mediocre side and their motivation can drop like you wouldn’t believe. Take their game against a depleted Pandurii side from earlier this week, for example. They were in cruise control 2-0 up at half-time and ended up needing a last-gasp winner to win 3-2. That didn’t happen because Pandurii could match them – it happened because Vaslui were lazy. That is the big danger with them. Quality-wise, they’re simply a lot better than Sportul in every position and if they show up then they’ll win the game – it’s as simple as that.
It’s up to you if you take this one, though. I find value in it because I think the chances of Vaslui showing up versus the flattering statistics for Sportul make the away win look tempting here. Vaslui should win this 0-2, in my opinion, but as I say – they must be motivated. It may even be an idea to watch this one in-play to see how they start the game as to whether you get involved or not but I do see the value on the visitors here.
Verdict: Vaslui to win at 4/5.
Red Star Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
The eternal derby of Serbia – Red Star vs Partizan! There’ll be one hell of an atmosphere for this one, especially with Red Star needing to win to close the gap at the top of the table.
However, they’re not in a great position to do so, really. They’ve looked good in attack this season with Borja, Evandro, and Lazovic forming a lethal trio. Cadu, Kaluderovic, and even lazy Mezenga have all contributed too as Red Star look to close the gap. However, I simply cannot look past the fact that Partizan are a better team than Red Star and they’ve dominated Serbia in recent years as a result. There’s much more experience in their ranks than there is in Red Star’s with Vukic, Ilic, Stojkovic, Diarra, and Smiljanic, just to name a few. The headlines are all about seventeen year old attacker Markovic and his electric pace, though. He’s bagged six goals in twelve appearances and the youngster appears to be the latest to emerge from Partizan’s prestigious academy of which the likes of Jovetic, Tosic, and Ljajic have already emerged in recent times. The youngster has inspired Partizan – not that they needed it! – and they look better for his arrival, in all honesty. Partizan keep the ball well and have plenty of options in attack, which naturally helps them in difficult games like this.
The bad news for Red Star is that half their defence for this game is absent. They miss Addy and Vilotic for starters, not to mention “the next Vidic” – Uros Cosic on loan from CSKA Moscow. Considering that Red Star’s defence isn’t good at the best of times, them conceding here has to be expected. They can score against Partizan, of course – they’ve been strong in attack this season so it’s reasonable to expect that too. However, with so many players out in defence for Red Star and a wealth of options on the side of the visitors, I don’t see Partizan losing this one. Indeed, considering that they’ve beaten Partizan just once in their last ten attempts in all competitions, I think it’s well worth taking Partizan with draw no bet cover here.
Verdict: Partizan Belgrade to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Racing Club Avellaneda, Manchester United, Arsenal, LOSC Lille, PAOK Salonika, Debreceni VSC, Gamba Osaka, Nagoya Grampus, Metalurg Skopje, Vardar Skopje, PSV Eindhoven, Nacional Asuncion, Celtic, Slovan Bratislava, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Dynamo Kiev, Bangor City.
Recommended bets:
Valencia CF, Debreceni VSC, and Manchester United at around 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
All Boys vs Atletico Lanus (5) 0-1
Newell’s Old Boys vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 0-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Belgrano de Cordoba (8) 1-0
Olimpo vs San Martin de San Juan (7) 0-0
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Heart (7) 2-1
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory (7) 2-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Wacker Innsbruck (5) 1-0
SV Mattersburg vs Rapid Vienna (4) 1-1
Salzburg vs SV Kapfenberg (7) 2-1
Austria Vienna vs Wiener Neustadt (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem vs Anderlecht (5) 1-2
Germinal Beerschot vs Kortrijk (4) 2-2
Sint-Truiden vs OH Leuven (6) 1-0
Lierse SK vs Club Brugge (7) 1-2
Westerlo vs Mons (4) 1-1
Cercle Brugge vs Lokeren (6) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Kaliakra vs Lokomotiv Sofia (6) 1-0
Beroe vs Minior Pernik (5) 0-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Palestino vs Union San Felipe (5) 1-1
O’Higgins vs Huachipato (7) 2-1
Colo Colo vs Nublense (7) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Split vs Cibalia Vinkovci (7) 1-0
NK Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica (5) 1-1
Istra 1961 vs Karlovac (5) 1-1
Zadar vs Lucko (7) 1-0
Sibenik vs Hajduk Split (4) 1-1
Rijeka vs Osijek (6) 0-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs AEK Larnaca (4) 1-1
AEL Limassol vs Olympiakos Nicosia (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec vs Jablonec (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Midtylland (6) 2-1
English Premier League:
Stoke City vs Blackburn Rovers (6) 2-1
Bolton Wanderers vs Everton (5) 1-1
Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Manchester United vs Newcastle United (8) 2-0
Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers (6) 2-1
Sunderland vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-0
West Bromwich Albion vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) 1-2
Arsenal vs Fulham (8) 2-0
English Championship:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Coventry City (7)
Portsmouth vs Leicester City (5)
Peterborough United vs Middlesbrough (6) over 2.5 goals
Bristol City vs Southampton (7) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Barnsley (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Blackpool vs Birmingham City (6) both sides to score
Hull City vs Burnley (7)
Cardiff City vs Nottingham Forest (6)
Ipswich Town vs Reading (4)
Doncaster Rovers vs Watford (6)
Crystal Palace vs Millwall (5) at least one red card in this game
West Ham United vs Derby County (7)
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 1-1
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Dijon FCO (7) 1-0
Stade Rennais vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (7) 2-1
Saint-Etienne vs AC Ajaccio (6) 1-0
Sochaux vs Montpellier HSC (5) 0-0
Toulouse vs Valenciennes (6) 1-0
LOSC Lille vs Stade Brestois (8) 2-0
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern (7) 2-1
Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg (6) 1-0
Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg (6) 1-2
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) 0-1
Hannover 96 vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-0
Greek Super League:
Ergotelis vs PAS Giannina (7) 2-0
PAOK Salonika vs Kerkyra (8) 2-0
Panaitolikos vs AEK Athens (6) 0-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Zalaegerszegi TE (8) 2-0
Siofok vs Lombard Papa (6) 1-0
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Kecskemeti TE (5) 2-2
Pecsi MFC vs Vasas Budapest (6) 1-1
Ujpest vs Gyori ETO FC (5) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Lecce vs Catania (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Novara vs Parma (6) 2-1
Atalanta Bergamo vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Lazio vs Juventus (4) 2-2
Japanese J-League:
Gamba Osaka vs Vegalta Sendai (8) over 2.5 goals
Nagoya Grampus vs Montedio Yamagata (8) 2-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Yokohama F.Marinos (5) 2-2
Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka (7) 2-1
Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse (5) 1-1
Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa Red Diamonds (5) 1-1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Omiya Ardija (5) 0-1
Macedonian First League:
Metalurg Skopje vs Napredok (8) 2-0
Vardar Skopje vs Ohrid (8) 1-0
Bregalnica Stip vs Sileks Kratovo (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Morelia (7) 2-0
Guadalajara vs Queretaro (7) 2-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen (5) 2-2
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap (5) 2-1
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Heracles Almelo (6) 2-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen (8) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Tacuary vs Independiente FBC (7) 1-0
Nacional Asuncion vs Rubio Nu (8) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa
LKS Lodz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 0-0
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-0
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw (5) 1-2
Polish Liga 1:
Polonia Bytom vs Ruch Radzionkow (4)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Maritimo Funchal (4) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
SL Benfica vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs Vaslui (7) 0-2
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Rapid Bucharest (6) 0-1
Steaua Bucharest vs FC Brasov (5) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nal’chik vs Terek Grozny (4) 1-1
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (5) 1-0
Kuban’ Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow (6) 1-2
Rubin Kazan’ vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 0-0
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs St.Mirren (8) 2-0
Dunfermline Athletic vs Aberdeen (4) 0-1
Hearts vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (7) 1-0
Motherwell vs Dundee United (6) 1-0
St.Johnstone vs Hibernian (5) 2-2
Serbian Superliga:
Javor Ivanjica vs Hajduk Kula (6) 1-0
BSK Borca vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (5) 1-2
Red Star Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Metalac GM vs OFK Belgrade (6) 1-1
Novi Pazar vs Sevojno (6) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tanjong Pagar vs Hougang United (5) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Trencin vs Spartak Trnava (7) 1-1
Senica vs Zlate Moravce (7) 2-1
Tatran Presov vs Nitra (6) 1-1
Kosice vs DAC Dunajska Streda (5) 1-0
MSK Zilina vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (7) 2-1
Slovan Bratislava vs Ruzomberok (8) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale vs Celje (6) 1-0
Nafta Lendava vs Maribor (7) 1-2
Rudar Velenje vs Triglav (7) 2-0
Gorica vs Mura 05 (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Valencia CF (7) 0-1
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid (8) -1.5 handicap, at least one red card in this game
Getafe vs Barcelona (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Guadalajara vs Cordoba (5)
Alcoyano vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5)
Alcorcon vs Girona (6) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona II vs Celta de Vigo (6) both sides to score
Cartagena vs Real Valladolid (5)
Villarreal II vs Numancia (5)
Huesca vs Las Palmas (6)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Deportivo Xerez (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
Etoile Carouge vs Chiasso (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 2-1
Orduspor vs Mersin Idymanyurdu (7) 2-1
Galatasaray vs Sivasspor (4) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Obolon Kiev vs Dynamo Kiev (8) 0-2
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 2-1
Volyn Lutsk vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (5) 0-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Penarol vs Rampla Juniors (7) 2-0
River Plate Montevideo vs Racing Club Montevideo (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cerrito vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Newtown vs Bangor City (8) 0-2
Port Talbot Town vs Llanelli (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!