Real Mallorca vs Hercules Alicante
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Real Mallorca and Hercules Alicante. Hosts Real Mallorca have disappointed so far this season as their annual squad changes have disrupted their team whereas Hercules Alicante are suffering a much more difficult problem – a lack of quality.
A lot of people will be taken in by the price of 4/5 on a Mallorca win today but I’m not convinced. The reason that they’ve only won six times in sixteen games this season is a real lack of firepower and I think the bookies have deliberately made the price on the Mallorca win attractive here because there’s actually a decent chance that Mallorca won’t win this game due to not taking their chances.
However, a call that does interest me is under 2.5 goals at 3/4. Why? Well, it helps that Mallorca are at home for this game as no side in the Primera Liga has scored fewer goals or conceded less goals when playing at home than Real Mallorca. They like to dominate play but rarely convert their chances with strong Webo, emerging Nsue, and tempremental Cavenaghi as their only real threats in front of goal. Real Mallorca do have a good midfield although the majority of their creativity stems from Uruguayan winger Castro and that can hurt them on occasion if he’s not at his best. However, their defence and goalkeeper are very experienced in the Primera Liga and because of this, Mallorca rarely concede goals at home. They’ve kept five clean sheets in eight Primera Liga home games this season so it’s no surprise that seven out of their eight home games have gone under 2.5 goals. Michael Laudup’s Real Mallorca lost their last home game 0-1 against Racing Santander, bizarrely, but it does serve as a useful example as to why you should all be careful when backing this side to win. The reason that Mallorca lost that game despite dominating the game was a failure to convert chances and if Mallorca fall behind then they rarely win because of that reason. With that in mind, is it really worth backing Mallorca to win the game at 4/5? Not for my money.
The above odds will be tempting with just a quick glance at the Primera Liga table as people will be over the moon at seeing that Hercules have won just once in eight away Primera Liga games, losing four times along the way. Intriguingly enough, Hercules Alicante possess this record because they don’t score goals either. Admittedly, their defence isn’t a patch on Mallorca’s and can concede heavily on occasion but their attack is equally as ineffectual, hence the fact that no side has scored as few goals away from home as Hercules have this season. It’s quite ironic, really – Mallorca have only conceded three goals in eight home games and Hercules have only scored three goals in eight away games! The reason Hercules tend to struggle with goalscoring isn’t a lack of quality, however, which I tend to find is the problem with Mallorca’s attack. Hercules’ problem on the road is leaving veteran striker David Trezeguet on his own in attack and he’s nowhere near as mobile as he once was with him now being “on the wrong side of the hill”, so to speak! However, strike partner Haedo-Valdez should play today and he has the legs and tenacity that Trezeguet lacks so Hercules could pose a more dangerous attacking threat in this game for a change. Unfortunately, they’re missing the support of pacey winger Drenthe, which damages their wideplay, and they’re also facing a very good defence so I don’t fancy their chances here, especially as Hercules haven’t scored in four consecutive away games in the Primera Liga ahead of this trip.
My main concern here is that the absence of Tiago Gomes and Pena for Hercules Alicante will leave their usual unit a little vulnerable and if they concede early then even an ineffectual Mallorca side can score a few goals against them. However, the fact remains that Mallorca just don’t score enough goals and that Hercules have the same problem! You also have to ask the question as to how much attention Mallorca will pay to their Copa del Rey game with Almeria in a few days time. Will they rest players to avoid the potential embarassment of crashing out of the Copa del Rey to minnows Almeria? They trail 4-3 from the first leg so that has to be taken into consideration here, especially as Hercules Alicante don’t have a Copa del Rey game mid-week.
With all of the above information taken into account, under 2.5 goals seems very generously priced at 3/4 so that’s my recommendation for this game today.
Team news – Real Mallorca miss Sergi Enrich, Pina, Tomeu Nadal, Tejera, Marti Crespi, Corrales, and Tuni whereas Hercules Alicante miss Drenthe, Pena, Sarr, Farinos, Tote, and Tiago Gomes.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Leicester City vs Swansea City – home win at 11/10.
Leicester have drafted in Manchester City youngster Ben Mee on loan and he could be set to start in this game. It’s a key addition for Leicester over the winter period as the English FA seemingly take great delight into cramming a mass of fixtures into just a few days, especially as defender Cunningham misses this game for them today. Incidentally, Leicester also miss goalkeeper Kirkland, who has returned to Wigan Athletic after his loan spell ended.
However, Sven-Goran Eriksson’s Leicester City have been strong at home ever since he took over the club as manager. They’ve won three out of their last five home games despite not boasting the strongest defence because they score a lot of goals. They’ve smashed in seven goals in their last two Championship home games and enter this game on the back of an impressive 0-1 victory at Hull City so their momentum is strong. I daresay the more cynical viewers may say that Leicester won that game as a part exchange deal as Hull City have now signed Leicester City striker Matty Fryatt from them for just over one million pounds but my view is that Leicester are capable of playing good football and they’ve got a good manager to boot. The additions of Kyle Naughton and Curtis Davies in defence has made Leicester’s previously terrible defence at least presentable now and the addition of misfit Darius Vassell in attack has gifted them some more pace and experience in attack so Sven has invested wisely in Leicester thus far and personally, I quite rate them and think they stand a good chance of winning this game as a result.
Swansea City look very impressive and well-organised under Rodgers and are a very tough side to beat as a result. Atypically, you won’t find me betting against them as a rule because if they have a lead to hold onto then they’re almost impossible to overcome. However, a few factors are on Leicester’s side today that tip the scale, in my view, so that’s what I’m looking to do here. I mentioned earlier that the English FA cram a lot of games in over the Christmas period and that obviously affects a lot of sides but the sides with smaller squads are hit the hardest and Swansea have a rather small squad, in my view. As a complete unit, they’re a very solid side but without some key players, they do look vulnerable. They’ve won two games ahead of this game so their momentum is good but both of those were at home, which is naturally where Swansea are strongest. However, away from home, their record is a little more revealing. Consider that Swansea have lost their last two away games, one of which was a 4-0 demolition inflicted by league leaders Queens Park Rangers. I can accept Swansea losing the game but not by that scoreline. Prior to that, Swansea lost at Sheffield United, who are a very low-scoring side, which is what I would personally call an unacceptable result as Swansea are a good side. However, their impotence on the road is costing them and they’ve now not scored for two consecutive away games so they do have problems finding the net. Unfortunately for the visitors, creative ex-Barcelona midfielder Orlandi is absent for this game, not to mention important defenders Tate and Taylor so Swansea’s side as a unit for this game has been dealt some hefty blows – blows that I don’t think they can overcome here. They’ve played a lot of games lately and they have a thin squad as it is so I think they could be on the receiving end of a convincing home win today.
If Leicester show up today as they have done for the majority of their campaign under Sven-Goran Eriksson then Leicester really should win this game as they do score a lot of goals on their own turf. The first goal is going to be key because Swansea can hold a lead well if they somehow manage to bumble themselves into the lead but if they fall behind then the scoreline could be pretty large as Leicester are relentless in front of goal. Leicester’s defence isn’t always convincing but Swansea’s attack rarely is and that is particularly evident from the fact that only six sides have lost more away games this season in the Championship than Swansea despite Swansea’s lofty Championship placing. Therefore, the home win at 11/10 looks very tempting indeed today.
Team news – Leicester City miss Cunningham and Kirkland for this game whereas Swansea City miss Tate, Orlandi, and Taylor.
Verdict: Leicester City to win at 11/10.
Scunthorpe United vs Watford – away win at 21/20.
I won’t often delve into away wins in the Championship but I’ve got to take a stab with this one. Scunthorpe United are one of the poorest sides in the division with their star striker Hooper having departed in summer for Celtic and then their manager left the club too. Scunthorpe are very much a side that is built around their manager and the loss of Nigel Adkins to League One giants Southampton has done them damage that they simply don’t look capable of recovering from. I genuinely fear for Scunthorpe United because I can’t see how they’ll still be in this division next season; they just don’t have the firepower. They’re the lowest-scoring home side in the Championship and with that in mind, it makes sense that they’ve lost seven out of their ten home games in this unforgiving division. Their record of averaging conceding nearly two goals per home game doesn’t help much either so Scunthorpe really are in a bad way. They enter this game on the back of a 3-0 drubbing in Yorkshire against Doncaster Rovers so morale is just as low as before with their record now six defeats in seven games. To make matters worse, Scunthorpe have a mini-defensive crisis ahead of this game with defenders Canavan, McNulty, and Raynes all absent today, which is just really bad timing for out-of-form Scunthorpe. They’ve also said farewell to West Ham United striker Freddie Sears, whose loan spell has ended, so Scunthorpe are not only playing a lot of games at the moment but they’re demoralised, short on players, and are frankly bereft of talent so the future is looking bleak for them currently.
Barring doubts over the fitness of captain John Eustace in midfield, Watford have a full-strength squad available to them so that doesn’t bode well for Scunthorpe United. Malky Mackay’s Watford have been absolutely immense in recent times with four consecutive wins leading them into this game. Even more impressively, the sides that Watford have beaten are all good sides – Queens Park Rangers, Cardiff City, Leicester City, and Portsmouth respectively. Surprisingly, ex-defender Mackay prefers a much more attack-orientated approach to football and although Watford are conceding goals, they’re still scoring a hell of a lot and that means they have to be taken seriously here. They’ve scored thirteen goals in their past four games and are the top goalscorers in the Championship away from home, scoring an average of two goals per game. Watford do concede goals due to their relentless attacking nature but in games like this, you’d have to expect them to win as I can’t envision the scenario whereby Scunthorpe at least match the number of goals that Watford could and should score here.
Watford have already won five times away from home this season and with the above in mind, backing them to win their sixth away game at 21/20 is appealing.
Team news – Scunthorpe United miss Raynes, Canavan, and McNulty whereas Watford have doubts over the fitness of Eustace.
Verdict: Watford to win at 21/20.
Huddersfield Town vs Sheffield Wednesday – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Huddersfield Town could give experienced winger Kevin Kilbane his debut after joining the club on loan from Hull City and happily have their three top goalscorers Pilkington, Roberts, and Rhodes are all available for selection again. Huddersfield are a goalscoring side by nature and the return of the afore-mentioned, particularly Rhodes, and I expect to see them show that today. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and they’ll have to be at their best to overcome local rivals Sheffield Wendesday today too. However, Sheffield Wendesday themselves enjoy scoring goals so I anticipate an open derby with plenty of goals here. Indeed, Wednesday’s last ten games in all competitions have included nine games going over 2.5 goals as Wednesday finally realise that defence is simply a myth but attacking is their forté, even without the departed Tudgay. Only Charlton Athletic have scored more away goals than Sheffield Wednesday have in League One this season so we should see plenty of goals here. A derby can sometimes stifle the goalscoring tendencies of teams but to be honest, neither of these two sides can defend competently so I do fancy this game going over 2.5 goals at 9/10, especially with Wednesday missing important defender Buxton for this game.
Team news – Sheffield Wednesday miss Buxton and Coke for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Port Vale vs Burton Albion – both sides to score at 4/5.
Port Vale goalkeeper Tomlinson’s red card against Rotherham United was rescinded but caretaker boss Geoff Horsfield may leave him out anyway after a disappointing display against Rotherham United in which Vale lost 5-0 to their promotion rivals. I mentioned in my Rotherham United vs Port Vale preview that Vale were really struggling as the side was built around the now-departed Micky Adams and it’s shown in dramatic fashion that this is the case after they conceded nearly fifty percent of their League Two goals this season in just their last two games. Vale are a good side but for me, they’re not a top side and thus I would say that they’re over-achieving, something that may gradually begin to show. Can Vale win today? I think so, if they put their minds to it. However, for me, there’s no value in that selection as their most reliable characteristic is their defence and they don’t have that on their side currently so I can’t back them with that in mind. That said, Burton Albion’s defending is bad enough at times to allow Vale to win this so I’d really rather prefer to avoid the 1×2 market. However, the above does leave the capacity for a bet involving both sides scoring here. Burton have only kept two clean sheets away from home in League Two this season and they were both against relegation candidates – Lincoln City and Barnet respectively – so Burton’s defence is some distance from being impregnable! Statistically speaking, I’d be concerned about Burton’s chances of scoring against Vale here but knowing that Vale’s core has just been torn apart and that their knee-jerk reaction has been a complete loss of confidence and organisation at the back, I do think that both sides can and will score here so that’s my call at 4/5.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Macclesfield Town vs Rotherham United – away win at 13/10.
Macclesfield are a funny side to play against but generally speaking, they tend to predictably capitulate if they have a lead, just as they did at Bury last match, going from 0-2 to 2-2 at the end of the game. Macclesfield don’t have massive issues with scoring goals but they do have issues defensively as the fact that only three out of the bottom five clubs in League Two have conceded more goals than Macclesfield have this season indicates all too well. They’ve shipped four goals in their last two games and are without a win since November so morale isn’t exactly high here, although props to Macclesfield who never stop battling in any game.
However, they’re facing bogey side Rotherham United today and that doesn’t bode too well for the hosts, particularly with integral defender Tremarco absent for this game, as well as backup defender Brisley, so this game is really Rotherham’s to throw away. Rotherham destroyed promotion rivals Port Vale 5-0 in their last game, showing no signs of being rusty at all despite having not played a competitive game for two/three weeks prior to that game. Rotherham have won five out of their last six games against Macclesfield and two of those have been away from home so this game is very much within reach for them today. They have an impressive away record this season too, Rotherham, winning four times in eight games, losing just twice along the way. They defend far better away from home than they do at home, bizarrely, but their tactics tend to be good away from home so I do have to fancy them here, especially with star striker Le Fondre in outstanding form.
With the above in mind, the away win does look tempting at 13/10 but don’t be surprised if you see a few goals in this one so it’s not advisable to bet on this game if you have a faint heart!
Team news – Macclesfield Town miss Tremarco and Brisley whereas Rotherham United miss Coid for this game.
Verdict: Rotherham United to win at 13/10.
Villarreal vs Almeria – both sides to score at 4/5.
A lot of people will view this game as a home win banker but I’m not so sure. Villarreal are a very good side, especially at home, and I wouldn’t hesitate in calling Almeria the worst side in the division, in my view, so I can understand the thought pattern there.
However, let’s consider the fact that Villarreal have a Valenciana derby with Valencia CF in the coming days in the Copa del Rey and they’ll want a full team for that. They know that they’re a better side than Almeria so I half-expect them to rest players here.
Villarreal’s home record so far this season is daunting with seven wins and one draw from eight Primera Liga home games. They average scoring over two goals per home game so Villarreal are a truly deadly force at El Madrigal. However, the reason that Villarreal are so good at home is because they’re so good at keeping the ball and taking their chances. That tactic is in jeopardy today though – there’s no Senna in midfield through injury so keeping the ball becomes harder. There’s no Nilmar in attack so the pressure is solely on Rossi to do the damage in attack. Aside from that, they’re also missing important defenders Marchena and Musacchio so this is a long way from a full-strength side for Villarreal and as much as I rate their first team, I don’t rate their depth very much so Villarreal could be in for a tougher game today than the odds indicate.
I’ve not been kind to Almeria with my words over the past few months because they’re a woeful side that don’t score enough goals, to be blunt. However, their new manager has really given them a much-needed kick up the arse and Almeria are suddenly playing very well and scoring goals for fun. They won 1-3 at illustrious local rivals Sevilla CF, threw away a lead to lose 2-3 at home to Getafe, and overcame Real Mallorca 4-3 at home so Almeria are very much on the goals route currently. The attack of Uche, Piatti, and Ulloa seems to be suddenly bearing fruit and now that confidence is back in the Almeria camp, they’re certainly a side to be respected, despite their blatant inferiority in games like this. Almeria’s Michel Macedo returns after a five-week absence to bolster their defence and basically Almeria are looking very good at the moment and morale is definitely high in the Andaluscian camp. New manager Oltra has to take the credit for their displays and his work makes me think that Almeria have a far better chance of getting a result here than the odds suggest.
Don’t get me wrong here – Villarreal are undoubtedly the better of the two sides and they really should win the game. However, there are too many absences for them to merit such short odds and you have to consider how well Almeria are playing too. Their away record isn’t great this season but that largely stems from them not scoring goals – their defensive record is deceptively good. With Almeria scoring goals for fun and Villarreal missing two key defenders, I think backing both sides to score in this game at 4/5 represents far better value than the home win does so that’s my call here.
Team news – Villarreal miss Nilmar, Senna, Marchena, and Musacchio whereas Almeria miss Valeri, Nieto, and Pellerano.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Getafe vs Real Madrid – both sides to score at 4/5.
If anyone backs Real Madrid to win this derby at 1/3 away from home then they’re idiots. This game means the world to their local rivals Getafe, especially with such a large number of ex-Real Madrid players plying their trade at Getafe!
I’m not denying that Real Madrid should be favourites here because they look very good under Mourinho and realistically speaking, they should win this game. However, derbies don’t always adhere to logic (i.e. Rangers vs Celtic yesterday) and that alone makes the odds look scandalous here.
Nonetheless, backing both sides to score in this game does appeal to me because I think it’s generously priced at 4/5. Getafe have only failed to score in one home game this season because they tend to attack fluently and take their chances. It aids my cause massively that Real Madrid miss centre-backs Pepe and Ricardo Carvalho for this game as this makes them very vulnerable in defence so a Getafe goal is something that we really should see tonight. Real Madrid scoring – you don’t need me to explain that one, not when they have the magnificent Cristiano Ronaldo in their team, who can score at any point of any game! They’re still missing Higuain, which will hurt them eventually due to his goals contribution, but I still think Madrid are capable of scoring at least once in this game.
Real Madrid have conceded in five out of their eight away games in the Primera Liga this season and make a habit of conceding at Getafe, conceding in five out of their last six visits here, leaking six goals in their last two visits alone. Getafe will absolutely give Real Madrid a battle in this game and I wouldn’t want to enter the 1×2 market here with such poor odds available, although I do think Madrid should edge it. Over 2.5 goals looks like a dead cert for this one but backing both sides to score at 4/5 looks a bargain.
Team news – Real Madrid miss Higuain, Dudek, Carvalho, Pepe, Diarra, and Matos for this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Sydney FC (5) 2-1
Gold Coast United vs Perth Glory (6) 2-1
English Championship:
Leicester City vs Swansea City (6)
Crystal Palace vs Preston North End (5)
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest (5) both sides to score
Scunthorpe United vs Watford (6) over 2.5 goals
Barnsley vs Coventry City (5) underr 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Hull City (6)
Sheffield United vs Doncaster Rovers (5)
Derby County vs Millwall (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Bristol City (7)
Reading vs Burnley (6)
Middlesbrough vs Norwich City (5) both sides to score
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Sheffield Wednesday (5) over 2.5 goals
Yeovil Town vs Milton Keynes Dons (4)
Notts County vs Hartlepool United (4)
Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United (5)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Southampton (6)
Oldham Athletic vs Rochdale (6) at least one red card in this game
Exeter City vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Peterborough United vs Walsall (7) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Colchester United (5) draw no bet
Bournemouth vs Brentford (6) under 2.5 goals
Charlton Athletic vs Swindon Town (5) under 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Port Vale vs Burton Albion (4) both sides to score
Stockport County vs Morecambe (5)
Aldershot Town vs Hereford United (5)
Northampton Town vs Lincoln City (7)
Accrington Stanley vs Chesterfield (6) both sides to score
Southend United vs Cheltenham Town (5)
Bradford City vs Bury (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Macclesfield Town vs Rotherham United (6)
Torquay United vs Oxford United (7)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Gillingham (4) draw no bet
Shrewsbury Town vs Crewe Alexandra (6) over 2.5 goals
Stevenage vs Barnet (5)
Scottish Premier League:
St.Mirren vs Kilmarnock (6) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal vs Almeria (5) 2-1
Real Zaragoza vs Real Sociedad (5) 2-0
Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander (6) 2-1
Real Mallorca vs Hercules Alicante (6) under 2.5 goals
Getafe vs Real Madrid (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Salamanca vs Deportivo Xerez (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!