Republic of Ireland vs Paraguay
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly between Republic of Ireland and Paraguay. The European side are at home, which naturally gives them a boost as they’re hosting a South American side who have travelled a hell of a long way to be here, particularly with the Irish being notoriously strong supporters.
However, I’m going against the Irish today. Why? Well, Paraguay are arguably the only South American side that knows what tactics are. There’s a reason that they did so well in the World Cup Qualifiers this year and it’s because they’re a fantastic side tactically. They know they’re not the best – although don’t mistake that for a lack of talent as they do have some very talented players – but they’re good enough to know how to stop other sides playing. Paraguay are something of an oddity of a side in South America as they prefer their 1-0 wins rather than a 5-4 thriller with six men dismissed! They battled to a laborious victory against a resilient North Korea last match and held Netherlands away from home towards the end of last year so Paraguay are certainly capable in defence. Paraguay’s main weakness is scoring enough goals but rest assured that if they do score, they tend to hold it. It’s strange that Paraguay’s weakness is scoring goals with the deadly duo of Cabanas and Santa Cruz being their two main strikers and with Oscar Cardozo being an understudy, all of which are exceptionally prolific. Some of you may also be familiar with Da Silva, the defender currently with Steve Bruce’s Sunderland, a no-nonsense and reliable defender. Indeed, “no-nonsense” and “reliable” are two words that I’d eagerly label Paraguay with as they’ve demonstrated both of those characteristics consistently over the past couple of years so they’re worthy of your respect today.
Republic of Ireland are a side that is notorious for its tenacity and belief but also its lack of goalscoring. The likes of Doyle and Keane are hard to play against because they’re quick, lively, and are good off the ball. However, neither have been prolific in recent times because as far as being natural strikers go – they’re just not that good, which really sums up the Irish side – lots of energy but they’re simply not that good. Ireland have found the net once in their past four games and that game was away from home. They’ve scored in just two of their past four home games and will have a tough test against the Paraguayans tonight, who have a reputation of being solid defensively, and it’s a test that I don’t think the hosts can pass.
My concern here is whether Paraguay will score or not. They’re more than capable of doing so with tremendous potency and variety in their attack and they’re more than capable of keeping Ireland out so I can’t quite work out why they’re so long for this game. Either way, Paraguay to claim a narrow victory here tonight has to be worth a flutter, even with draw no bet.
Verdict: Paraguay to win at 9/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
UMF Grindavik vs Valur Reykjavik – away win at 7/5.
I can’t really write a lot about this one other than to say be careful because both sides are playing badly. My sole motivation behind backing the away win is that Valur are a good side; Grindavik are not. Neither side is doing the business currently but one of these two sides deserves to be where they are and that’s Grindavik. Valur’s luck has to change at somepoint and why not against the worst side in the Urvalsdeild? They’ve won three out of their last five trips here and they do have the superior squad so I think they’re worth a punt. Valur haven’t scored enough goals this season but Grindavik are bad enough defensively to give them ample opportunities to remedy that tonight so I think the away win could bear some value tonight.
Verdict: Valur Reykjavik to win at 7/5.
Selfoss vs Stjarnan Gardabaer – home win at 7/5.
I’ve been impressed with how Selfoss have acquitted themselves to life in the Urvalsdeild following promotion. They’ve really put themselves about and made themselves hard to beat, even winning their last two games consecutively. Selfoss were given a royal “welcome to the Urvalsdeild” opening game beating at home against heavyweights Fylkir Reykjavik but since then have done very well indeed, winning at giants KR Reykjavik, and annihlating fellow promoted side Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3-0 last match. Selfoss are no mugs and they’ve been strong wherever they’ve played, finding goals easy to come by, as well as boasting a reliable defence. I suspect they’ll do a “Stjarnan” by doing well in the first part of the Urvalsdeild and clinging on in the second part as I don’t believe they’re good enough to maintain their current form but I’ll certainly ride the wave whilst they’ve got it and they certainly have it currently.
It also helps that they’re facing Stjarnan Gardabaer. I like Stjarnan because they’re a reliable, hard-working, home side. They’re tough to beat on their own turf and score goals for fun there. However, they cannot defend for shit, particularly away from home. It’s no coincidence that their away form is generally atrocious when you consider that they cannot defend as the two walk hand in hand. They’ve already took a 3-1 battering at Fylkir Reykjavik this season and conceded two at home to an out-of-form KR Reykjavik last match so their defence certainly hasn’t improved. I can see Stjarnan giving Selfoss a real run for their money tonight but ultimately I have more faith in Selfoss at the moment with their assured displays whereas Stjarnan are a bit haphazard and look prone against well-organised sides, which Selfoss undoubtedly are. Therefore, the home win looks to have some value tonight.
Verdict: Selfoss to win at 7/5.
KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik – away win at 5/2.
These odds are ridiculous! The only saving grace that I can bestow upon our beloved bookmakers is that they’ve priced the X2 price correctly at 8/11 but this is unbelievable. Don’t get me wrong – both of these sides are capable of cancelling each other out on their respective days and KR Reykjavik are the bigger side. However, KR have done nothing to convince me this season that they’ve progressed from last year with leaky defending and inconsistent goalscoring. They look disorganised and inept tactically, which has already cost them this season as they’re yet to win a game despite playing the two newly-promoted sides during those three games. The fact is that KR have conceded two in each of those games and tonight’s opponents Keflavik are not a side you want to give a lead to because they defend them so well. Last season was the first time that KR Reykjavik have beaten Keflavik at home in their last eight attempts because Keflavik play such a rigid, compact style that KR can’t break them down. Keflavik look likely to cause another upset tonight too with their strong momentum following three consecutive wins. They’re looking ominously composed and efficient with more wins on the road already this season than they did in all of last year’s campaign away from home. Hell, they even put in-form Fylkir Reykjavik in their place last match despite letting a lead slip – which is most unlike Keflavik – so don’t underestimate Keflavik. I can see KR giving Keflavik the lead and not being able to get back into the game so the odds of 5/2 on the away win have to be worth a punt tonight.
Bluntly – with everything going against KR Reykjavik currently and everything going for Keflavik at the moment, you have to feel that the away win is worth a flutter for what should be a fairly well-balanced encounter.
Verdict: Keflavik to win at 5/2.
Armenia vs Uzbekistan – home win at 7/5.
Now this should be an interesting game! Far from everyone’s list of what to watch today, Armenia have been stealthily creeping up the European ladder over the past twelve months, which is interesting as geographically they’re not actually in Europe. Enough pedanticism, however – Armena have impressed me at home in their last few games. They’ve scored in four out of their last five, beating Belgium 2-1 and losing 2-1 against Spain in their most recent two home games so they’re certainly not the pushovers that they once were. Their players are becoming more spread around Europe, which naturally increases the overall ability and experience of the Armenian national team with the likes of Berezovsky at FK Khimki, Arzumanyan at Randers, the Karamyan twins at Steaua Bucharest, Goharyan at BATE Borisov, Yavruyan at Maccabi Tel-Aviv, Yagan at Standard de Liege, Dashyan & Mkhitaryan at Metalurg Donetsk, and Manucharyan at Ajax (although on loan this season at AGOVV Appeldoorn). Armenia aren’t a side to roll over and die anymore – they’re going to give sides a game and I think today is the perfect opportunity for them to demonstrate this, much as their Under 21 side did a few days ago by winning 3-2 at Estonia U21.
Visitors Uzbekistan impressed me a lot last year with some tactically astute displays, incredibly strong defending, and an overall efficiency that is somewhat rare in Asian football. However, they’ve weakened over the past twelve months with sides figuring them out and generally being able to overcome them. Uzbekistan’s fatal flaw is not scoring enough goals. There’s only times that their hero Maksim Shatskikh can bail them out with age and injuries catching up with him. They’re a promising side, make no mistake, and they have their own players experiencing European football like Denisov at Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Galiullin at Rubin Kazan, and Ibrahimov at Bohemians 1905. However, the number is considerably less than that of their opponents Armenia, which tells you where Uzbekistan are currently at. They’re gaining a new kind of experience with a good number of their players playing for wealthy giants FC Bunyodkor, an experience that will assist the Uzbek national side in the near future, no doubt. However, I think they’re going to meet a determined and capable Armenia side today and I just don’t envision Uzbekistan being able to score in the game whereas Armenia have looked some what potent in recent times at home, which it surprises me to say! However, it remains true and at 7/5 the hosts have to be worth a flutter today despite the defensive resilience of their opponents.
Verdict: Armenia to win at 7/5.
Greece vs North Korea – under 1.5 goals at 15/8.
This is bold but potentially fruitful. North Korea have already demonstrated both in and out of Asia that they’re an incredibly compact side that depends entirely upon tactics to get them anywhere. They’ve not got a great side but they’re tenacious and incredibly hard to break down so give them the respect that they deserve. The Greeks are (or were) of a similar mould a few years ago. In fact, it’s those very tactics that won them the European Championships so I expect to see two very similar sides (tactically) locking horns today with neither side wanting to lose. Neither side offers much in the way of attack but offers a lot in the way of defence. It’s being played at a neutral venue so there isn’t any home advantage but with nothing at stake here, I can only feel that both sides will try to keep some pride here whilst North Korea gain some invaluable experience ahead of their World Cup campaign. I’ve no idea who will win this game, if anyone, but it should be under 1.5 goals either way between two strong defensive sides and the odds are good enough to try it at too.
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 15/8.
Chile U20 vs Ivory Coast U20 – Chile U20 to win at 11/10.
The reigning champions didn’t impress as much as they could have done in their final group game but they didn’t have to, basically. When they’ve had to turn up in this tournament, the reigning champions have certainly done so and have been terrifying with some incisive and varied attacking play. They’ll face a stern test against a strong Ivorian backline tonight but they’ve got so many fantastic passers of the ball that it’s hard to see them doing anything but ultimately breaking through the Ivorian defence. This could take some time, however, as France discovered in Ivory Coast’s last game. However, the Ivorians do tend to start struggling tactically as the game wears on and it’s a weakness I’ve noticed in a few of their games now whereas most other sides maintain a much higher level of composure until the end. Ivory Coast offer some goal threat themselves with talented Gohou but ultimately they came up a bit short last match against a fairly solid France defence last match with little penetration overall. Whereas I can see the suicidal Chileans giving the Ivorians the chances to score, I’ve just not got enough faith in them taking those chances whereas the Chileans often do. I think the key here will be the opening goal – if it’s early, then we should see a lot of goals. If it’s late, then it should be under 2.5 goals. Either way, whilst Chile remain at 11/10 or above, they have to be worth a flutter as they bid to regain their crown with some scintillating football.
Verdict: Chile U20 to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Trans Narva, EB/Streymur, Ukraine.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any combination bets today – the calls are too risky and the fodder too short to generate a decent accumulator, in my opinion, so I’d recommend sticking to singles today.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (9) over 2.5 goals
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
EB/Streymur vs B68 (8) over 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
UMF Grindavik vs Valur Reykjavik (6) 1-2
Selfoss vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (6) over 2.5 goals
KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik (5) 0-1
International Friendlies:
Armenia vs Uzbekistan (6) under 2.5 goals
Ukraine vs Lithuania (8) under 2.5 goals
Montenegro vs Albania (5) 2-2
Georgia vs Cameroon (6) 1-1
Greece vs North Korea (6) under 1.5 goals
Nigeria vs Saudi Arabia (6) 2-1
Republic of Ireland vs Paraguay (6) 0-1
USA vs Czech Republic (5) 1-1
International Friendlies – Toulon Tournament (played in France):
France U20 vs Denmark U20 (6) 2-1
Chile U20 vs Ivory Coast U20 (7) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Lillestrom vs Odd Grenland Skien (5) 2-2
Swedish Superettan:
Jonkopings Sodra vs Hammarby (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!