Rubin Kazan vs Barcelona
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Russia between Rubin Kazan and Barcelona. These two sides met in last year’s campaign with Rubin interestingly taking four points from a possible six against what is currently one of the favourites to lift the Champions League trophy on a continual basis so it’ll be interesting to see how both sides approach this game today.
Hosts Rubin Kazan are notorious for sticking the bus in front of the goal and stopping other sides from playing football and to their credit, they do it very well indeed in typical Russian fashion. That’s the predominant reasoning behind their outstanding record of having conceded just three goals in twelve domestic home games this season so don’t underestimate them here. Rubin have only played three home games in the UEFA Champions League and are unbeaten in all three despite hosting Internazionale, Barcelona, and Dynamo Kiev so they’re no mugs in this competition. I’d hurriedly point out that Rubin have drawn all three games before you get any ideas of backing the home win here but it’s all stemmed from Rubin keeping sides out successfully and Barcelona are no exception. Barcelona dominated proceedings when they last came to face Rubin but were unable to find a way through their iron defence and I expect a similar game today. Since Rubin last faced Barcelona, they have undergone some changes in their squad, bringing in a lot of new players and even losing a few, the most notable of which was target man Bukharov to Zenit St.Petersburg. However, Rubin have since signed Obafemi Martins from VfL Wolfsburg, Alexsey Medvedev from Sibir Novosibirsk, and Sergey Kornilenko from Tom Tomsk to replace Bukharov – all that remains now is to integrate them into the side. Rubin have also signed Lithuanian goalkeeper from the financially-ruined Unirea Urziceni, who is considered to be one of Eastern Europe’s brightest goalkeeping talents, not to mention Brazilian playmaker Carlos Eduardo from Hoffenheim, experienced Oleg Kuzmin in defence from Lokomotiv Moscow, and defender Bocchetti from Genoa. You can see Rubin’s intentions long-term quite clearly here but it’s going to take time to have all of these players playing the “Rubin” way so although I’d say Kazan is stronger now than they were last year, they’re also less familiarwith each other within the squad than before so for a tough game like this, I’d say that they’ve taken a step back rather than a step forward.
(taken from www.thefootytipster.com and if you’re reading this post on another page then it’s been stolen via copy & pasting morons!)
However, the question is whether Barcelona can take advantage of that or not. From what I’ve seen of Barcelona so far this season, my answer to that would be “probably not”. Interestingly enough, it’s been David Villa who has impressed me the most for Barcelona this season despite my continual doubts over his actual level of ability so credit to him for that and for Guardiola ignoring my texts to stop him signing him in the first place and credit to Barcelona for integrating him into their attack swiftly. Barcelona’s problem thus far is that they’re not firing on all cylinders and “Plan B” with that in mind is to give the ball to fantastic little Lionel Messi and watch him destroy defences. That works well in principle but as Messi still isn’t 100% fit following his “Ujfalusi-ing” so Barcelona could find it very hard indeed to shatter a stiff Rubin resolve today unless they suddenly peak as we all know they can. Don’t get me wrong here – Barcelona have world-class players and are more than capable of playing without Messi but they don’t look anywhere near their best yet so I don’t expect to see much from them today. Consider their match at Athletic Club de Bilbao at weekend, for instance. It’s a difficult game for Barcelona to play in because of the way Bilbao play but Barcelona looked ineffectual and only eventually broke through Bilbao after Fernando Amorebieta was harshly given a red card and thus Barcelona took the initiative and the scoreline went up from there, naturally. Nonetheless, their display did not impress me and although Messi has travelled to Russia for this game, I don’t see him playing ninety minutes so he could very well be used as a weapon from the bench to come on and win the game for Barcelona.
So we have a side that defends immensely well hosting a superior side that are missing their best attacking weapon for this game. Rubin are mid-season whereas Barcelona have only played a few competitive games so far so I’ve got these two sides level-pegging at the moment. It’s going to take something special from Barcelona to break through this Rubin side in what should be a very dull encounter and although I don’t doubt that Barcelona can do it, I’m still siding with under 2.5 goals here at a difficult venue as the odds are quite generous on that outcome, all things considered.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Olympique Lyonnais – home win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Eli Gutman’s Hapoel Tel-Aviv side have done a lot to impress me over the past couple of years as they simply turn up where they have to and play football. Not only does this surprise a great number of their opponents but it also puts their opponents on the back foot too as Hapoel do it remarkably well. They lost 2-0 in Lisbon against SL Benfica in their opening group stage game but played well throughout, leaving even Benfica manager Jorge Jesus dishing out he accolades for their Israeli opponents. Austrian giants Salzburg came here in the Champions League Qualifiers and only managed a draw despite desperately needing a win and they weren’t the first to encounter a difficult Hapoel side with German giants Hamburger SV, Scottish giants Celtic, and Austrian giants Rapid Vienna all having lost here last season in the UEFA Europa League and more importantly, each side lost deservingly so. Hapoel are no minnows in this group and really shouldn’t be treated as such – they play good football and have good players so I expect a lot from them tonight.
It aids my bet greatly, however, that Olympique Lyonnais are terrible at the moment. They only managed to beat a weak Schalke 04 side 1-0 at home thanks to a defensive error despite playing against ten men for the vast majority of the game. Domestically, Lyon haven’t been as lucky as they were in that game with the only game they’ve actually managed to win being the home game against newly-promoted Stade Brestois and that was a mere 1-0. Lyon have lost at depleted Lorient and Girondins de Bordeaux sides respectively, not to mention at newly-promoted Stade Malherbe de Caen, so things really aren’t going well for the giants of Ligue 1. They’ve managed to draw at home to battling Valenciennes and even lost their derby at home to Saint-Etienne at weekend without scoring so Lyon have an awful lot of problems at the moment. You can attribute their issues to injuries and it’s true that they do have injury problems but confidence also looks a massive problem too with Lyon guilty of missing gilt-edged chances in numerous games. Lyon’s problem is that if they don’t play well then they tend to lose because they cannot defend whereas most sides would simply draw. Lyon are playing against a Hapoel Tel-Aviv side tonight that actually can play football so I think they need to be very afraid of what is rapidly becoming a daunting European trip.
For this game, Lyon miss Ederson, Delgado, Lopez, Cris, and Makoun. They have good players in their squad nonetheless but they’re looking devoid of depth and bereft of confidence. Hapoel, however, always play the beautiful game and I don’t think that’ll help Lyon’s plight whatsoever tonight. Therefore, my call is the home win with draw no bet as cover.
Verdict: Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Rangers vs Bursaspor – both teams to score at 10/11.
Rangers got a heroic draw in Manchester in their last European game by defending like troopers and fortunately encountering a United side that looked totally disinterested in the game. Now the onus is on the Scottish side to attack and that’s when we tend to see the real state of Scottish football as defence is Rangers’ only strong point. Rangers fielded a full-strength side at Aberdeen at weekend and nervously claimed a 3-2 win whereas Bursaspor rested players in their 1-0 win at home to Bucaspor on friday night so they arrive in Scotland in high spirits and fresh for the battle. As I’ve touched upon above, Bursaspor have had longer to prepare for this game so should be fresher tonight. They’re new to European football and boy do they know it after a 4-0 thumping from Valencia CF at home two weeks ago! Nonetheless, the pressure is off Bursaspor now away from home and if they play their game tonight as we know they can then I expect them to trouble Rangers. No trip to Scotland is easy for any side and I’m certainly not suggesting that Bursaspor would necessarily get a result here as their defence looked very inexperienced against Valencia and because Rangers are a very experienced European side. However, Rangers abandoning their defensive line-up tends to yield goals as we saw in all three of their home games in the Champions League last season, conceding four goals against Sevilla CF, two against VfB Stuttgart, and four against Unirea Urziceni. Rangers are not a good footballing side; they’re a well-organised and physical unit so I don’t like going against them away from home as they’re simply hard to break down. However, there’s more pressure on Rangers to perform in Scotland so I expect to see a more open game here and if Sercan Yildrim performs to his full potential for Bursaspor then I think the odds on both sides scoring look quite tasty here.
Team news – Rangers miss Beattie and Jelavic and also have doubts over both Whittaker and Davis.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 10/11.
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin – home win at 31/20.
I rarely get involved with the bigger Colombian derbies but I’ve no option to do otherwise when giants Independiente Medellin are priced so generously. Independiente aren’t having a great campaign as they’re not scoring freely but to deny that they’re anything but one of the top three sides in Colombia would be nothing short of blasphemy!
Although Independiente’s current placing in the Primera A table isn’t flattering, what should be incredibly evident to all of you is that they’re a bloody hard side to beat. Only league leaders Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota have conceded less goals than they have in the current campaign and only the afore-mentioned and bitter rivals Atletico Nacional de Medellin have beaten Independiente Medellin this season, both of which I feel are quite acceptable defeats, logically speaking. Independiente have impressively taken points from trips to face Atletico Junior Barranquilla and in-form Cucuta Deportivo in the last few weeks so Independiente are starting to gather a bit of momentum. They’ll be actively seeking revenge for the defeat that tonight’s opponents Atletico inflicted upon them two weeks ago and they’re very well-placed to do so following four consecutive home wins against their bitter rivals in all competitions and I expect more of the same tonight. I do have some concerns over the level of potency that Independiente have currently but this is a derby and players always play better in derbies than in the “normal” games so I expect a full-blooded Independiente display tonight. Visitors Atletico Nacional have had a great campaign thus far despite the league table not showing it as well as it should! Much like Independiente, Atletico tend to rely on their stubborn defence for good displays but they’re far less adept in playing away from home than Independiente are as just one win in four away games (including two defeats) in the Primera A this season indicates quite well. If you look back to the Apertura part of the current campaign then you’ll see Atletico lost five out of nine away from home and have similar ratios of defeat on the road for quite some time prior to this year. Atletico aren’t a naturally good goalscoring side nowadays and they tend to lose their heads a bit on the road and concede far too many goals for them to counter which is why Atletico struggle on the road and why I go against them when they’re away from home, simply put!
It aids my cause that Atletico Nacional got taught a lesson at home last match by giants Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota as they’ll be a tad demoralised after a strong start to the season. Both sides have a good mixture of experience and emerging talent but I can’t put it any more simply other than to say that Independiente Medellin are the better side. They’re always a tough nut to crack at home and if they actually convert their chances tonight (as Atletico’s defence will inevitably capitulate at somepoint) then they’ll win this game. They’re too good defensively to concede a lot of goals and with the above information in mind, I have to fancy the home win at 31/20 despite this being a hotly-contested derby.
Verdict: Independiente Medellin to win at 31/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Corinthians, Cruzeiro, Manta, Sport Huancayo, Universidad Cesar Vallejo.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today guys, sorry!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European Champions League:
Rubin Kazan vs Barcelona (5) under 2.5 goals
Tottenham Hotspur vs Twente Enschede (6) 2-1
Internazionale vs Werder Bremen (3) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Schalke 04 vs SL Benfica (4) 1-1
Rangers vs Bursaspor (5) 1-1
Valencia CF vs Manchester United (6) 1-1
Panathinaikos vs FC Copenhagen (5) 1-0
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Copa Sudamericana:
Banfield vs Deportes Tolima (7) under 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs North Queensland Fury (6) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Internacional (5) 0-0
Gremio Prudente vs Guarani (6) 1-1
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Goianiense (8) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria (6) 2-1
Fluminense vs Avai (7) over 2.5 goals
Corinthians vs Botafogo (8) over 2.5 goals
Gremio vs Sao Paulo (6) 2-1
Ceara vs Atletico Mineiro (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportivo Pereira (7) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Macara Ambato (5) 1-1
El Nacional Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Emelec Guayaquil vs Olmedo Riobamba (7) 2-0
Manta vs Independiente (8) 2-1
Deportivo Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 2-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
CNI vs Total Chalaco (7) 1-0
Sport Huancayo vs Sport Boys (8) 2-0
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Cienciano (8) 2-0
Jose Galvez vs Inti Gas (6) 2-1
Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Sengkang Punggol (3) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor (5) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Enjoy your free betting tips!