Rubin Kazan vs VFL Wolfsburg
FreeMost people will be looking to the UEFA Europa League today – not me. I’m a little tired of this unpredictable competition and we’ve all suffered some horrendous times of late in this competition due to the lack of commitment from sides so I’m turning my focus to the strangely more reliable Copa Libertadores in South America with the exception of today’s featured game! The UEFA Europa League bears a horrible card tonight with potentially a lot of goals being scored but little reliability anywhere so good luck if you try your hand at it tonight – I’m not!
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Russian champions Rubin Kazan and German champions VFL Wolfsburg. Rubin Kazan have impressed me in European competition this season and I consider them rather unlucky to have been knocked out of the UEFA Champions League. I didn’t expect much from them, to be honest, so they’ve impressed me substantially by very much earning their wins. Visitors VFL Wolfsburg have been up and down so many times this season that I’ve lost count but one thing that does remain constant for the Germans is conceding goals, which makes today’s trip to Russia even harder.
Rubin Kazan are yet to lose at home in European football this season despite hosting some of the biggest and more experienced sides in European competition i.e. Barcelona, Internazionale, and Dynamo Kiev. Rubin Kazan drew all three games at home in the UEFA Champions League before being knocked out but were impressive throughout their group stage, even claiming a rare win at Barcelona, something that few other sides can claim to have done. Rubin Kazan’s success, unlike most Russian sides, hinges on their tactical prowess rather than their home advantage. Russia is a horrendous place to travel to anyway as a potent Hapoel Tel-Aviv found as they travelled from Israel to lose 3-0 although the game wasn’t even at Rubin’s ground due to weather conditions. It’s bitterly cold in Russia this time of year and that does play a part in increasing the struggle for visiting sides. Rubin Kazan are very adept defensively and you sense that if they go in front then they’ll win the game as a result. Rubin Kazan also beat CSKA Moscow a few days ago in the Russian Super Cup without conceding a goal so their confidence and momentum is good at the moment and they’ll prove a stern test for their German opponents.
VFL Wolfsburg though – who knows what to think of them? They score a lot of goals and concede even more! They’re one of the worst defensive sides in the Bundesliga but one of the most potent so it depends which Wolfsburg turns up. They had been poor in the Bundesliga for some time before appointing a new manager and have since gone five games unbeaten in all competitions, winning their last four games consecutively. They’re back to their usual selves with their freescoring style but that will be tested to the maximum on their nightmare trip to defensively-astute Rubin Kazan today, who have conceded just one goal at home in four European games. Wolfsburg drew 2-2 at Villarreal in their UEFA Europa League away game but could and probably should have lost the game after being guilty of giving some easy chances to Villarreal thanks to poor defending. Wolfsburg were also knocked out of the UEFA Champions League in the group stages and lost two out of their three away games then with their only success being in Turkey against a demoralised and out-of-form Besiktas JK. Wolfsburg have already travelled to Russia and lost here when they faced CSKA Moscow in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League so will not have fond memories of the difficult trip east. Kazan is an intimidating venue for any side so it’ll be interesting to see how Wolfsburg approach this game.
This is my featured game for the day but the very fact that it’s in the UEFA Europa League screams “be careful!” to all punters. Rubin Kazan are more than capable of using their superb tactics to win this game efficiently and I do expect them to do so with their strong home advantage. However, Wolfsburg are on fire currently and their potency is good so they will give Rubin a tough test. However, the odds on a home win look good value for the Russian champions to win as they’re consistently underestimated by the bookies so I think it’s worth a punt today.
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at evens.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
Deportivo Quito vs Internacional – home win at 7/5.
Ah, the joy of altitude! Quito, one of the most difficult venues in South America, tonight plays host Ecuadorian Primera A champions Deportivo Quito as they entertain Brazil’s Internacional.
Deportivo Quito have been unimpressive domestically this season with some disappointing displays and even more disappointing results with their most recent being a loss at home to bitter rivals Liga de Quito. That won’t sit well with tonight’s hosts so they should have additional motivation for this game tonight. Deportivo Quito lost their only Copa Libertadores game this season at Uruguayans Cerro but now have their first home game of the competition. Deportivo Quito made their maiden voyage into this competition last season and have never lost at home during their fleeting appearances despite hosting both Cruzeiro and Estudiantes De La Plata, winning two out of their three home games. No side likes travelling to Quito so the home advantage really is a massive advantage for Deportivo Quito and the hosts need it at the moment too. They’ve got enough quality in their squad to do damage to Internacional tonight, however, so the odds do look good value.
Internacional lost on their last visit to Quito, albeit against Deportivo’s bitter rivals Liga de Quito back in 2007’s Copa Libertadores. Like most Brazilian sides, Internacional don’t travel particularly well with just two wins outside of Brazil in their last seven away games in the Copa Libertadores. That record is in the past, admittedly, but it’s still relevant in terms of how a side (and sometimes even a nation) travels. Internacional have some match practice as they’re mid-way through their state championship in which they’re doing well without particularly impressing. Internacional won their only Copa Libertadores game of this season at home to Deportivo’s title rivals Emelec Guayaquil in an unconvincing 2-1 victory. Internacional don’t deal well with physical sides generally but that’s the kind of game they’ll get from Deportivo Quito tonight so it’ll be interesting to see how it goes.
Although I won’t deny that Internacional are the better footballing side out of these two outfits, the game is being played in a frankly hostile Quito venue at alarming altitudes so I’d put these two sides on par with each other for that reason. Deportivo Quito are yet to convince this season but have the perfect opportunity to kickstart their season tonight as they have their traditional home advantage and the ability to make it count. Brazilian sides rarely have joy in Ecuador, like most sides, and Internacional shouldn’t be any different. So long as Deportivo Quito remain physical (whilst keeping eleven men on the field!) against Internacional then the flowing football of the Brazilians should be disrupted sufficiently enough for the Ecuadorians to claim a narrow home win in what should be a low-scoring game. After all – I seriously doubt that we’ll see an over-zealous display from Internacional at such an altitude or they’ll most likely die so the hosts should have their chances to do damage tonight.
Verdict: Deportivo Quito to win at 7/5.
Recommended bets:
My sole recommendation today is a Copa Libertadores four team accumulator with Deportivo Quito, Cruzeiro, Sao Paulo, and Emelec Guayaquil at 12/1. Cruzeiro have a difficult away game but against a poor side so the bookies have called this correctly at 4/6, unfortunately – I had hoped for 4/5 or perhaps evens at some generous bookies! The same is applicable for Sao Paulo, unfortunately – these fuckers must be reading my blog, eh?! Again, odds are spot on for Emelec Guayaquil at 4/6 – I like this bet an awful lot, they’ve impressed me this year – and the risky one is Deportivo Quito who are under-performing a little but are deadly at home.
For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Hamburger SV vs Anderlecht (7) over 2.5 goals
Rubin Kazan vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) over 2.5 goals
LOSC Lille vs Liverpool (6) 1-1
SL Benfica vs Olympique de Marseille (6) over 2.5 goals
Juventus vs Fulham (6) 2-1
Panathinaikos vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-0
Valencia CF vs Werder Bremen (4) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Nacional Asuncion vs Sao Paulo (7) 1-2
Emelec Guayaquil vs Cerro (8) 2-0
Deportivo Italia vs Cruzeiro (7) over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Quito vs Internacional (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!