Ruch Radzionkow vs Piast Gliwice
FreeIntriguingly, today’s featured game is one of the more low-key games in Poland – it’s the Liga 1 game between newly-promoted Ruch Radzionkow and promotion hopefuls Piast Gliwice. Both sides have played well in the current campaign but there’s a lot more between them than the odds reflect, in my opinion, and we should see that by the final whistle today.
I have the utmost respect for Ruch Radzionkow; they’re unbeaten in seven home games in the division following promotion last season and they also boast the remarkable record of having conceded just once along the way. You can only applaud such a record and thus comprehend why the odds are as good as they are on the away win today. However, looking at the statistics a little more closely, there does appear to be some interesting information buried beneath. For instance, Ruch Radzionkow are exceptionally impotent – they average scoring just one goal per home game currently and find it very hard to break any side down. This works well when you don’t concede goals but if you concede then you struggle. Ruch have won four times and drawn three times in their seven home games but during that time, the only sides they’ve faced that actually have any quality are Pogon Szezecin and GKS Katowice respectively, both of which are having terrible campaigns, especially away from home. Ruch bring a strong, well-organised, and physical game to the table, especially in their home games so nobody has an easy ride here. However, when faced with actual quality i.e. their trips to face Flota Swinoujscie and LKS Lodz this season – they’ve been battered, conceding four goals in each game and thus losing. Ruch have entertained a lot of poor sides this season on their own turf but this is their first good opponent to visit, a side that actually has the capability to win the game against them and if they’re not scared then they definitely should be. Ruch are missing Wisniewski, Szymura, and Rzepka, all three of which are massively important to Ruch’s defence and considering that Ruch were flattened 4-3 at a Dolcan Zabki side that nearly doubled their goals tally for the season in that single game, Ruch really aren’t in a position to cause as many problems as their statistics suggest.
Piast Gliwice were relegated from the Ekstraklasa last season and although they’ve undergone some heavy renovations in their squad – just like all Liga 1 sides – they’re still amongst the favourites for promotion because they’ve got a very good side. Piast’s only problem was scoring goals at the start of the season although loan striker Maycon from Jagiellonia Bialystok appears to have finally resolved that problem. It’s no coincidence that since he joined the club, Piast have not only looked better but have also scored more goals. Maycon is arguably too good for this division and I expect another example of that today. Piast’s away form in this division shows three wins and four draws from seven games, which is respectable but you’d be within your rights to expect something more from a superior Liga 1 side. However, again, if we examine the statistics, we can see that Piast have dropped points in very difficult away games i.e. Flota Swinoujscie, LKS Lodz, Gornik Leczna etc. but have beaten the poorer opponents. Piast have actually now won four out of their last five games so momentum favours them ahead of this game, particularly after their 5-0 drubbing of Gorzow Wielkopolski last match. Piast’s real strength lies in midfield, however, where Bartosz Iwan and Jakup Biskup patrol and score goals freely as they’re too good for this division. Those two coupled with Maycon leaves Piast looking very dangerous in attack and considering their attacking problems at the start of the season, it’s interesting to note that only Flota Swinoujscie have scored more on the road than they have this season, which is also ironic as Flota are the atypical Liga 1 home team! Either way, however, Piast are far too good for their hosts here and with so much in their favour, I find it hard to accept that they’re as long as they are to win this game.
Liga 1 away wins are pretty rare but everything in this game points to one today. The hosts are over-achieving, impotent, and also really struggle if they fall behind. They’re hard-workers but they hate playing against quality as they can’t compete. Piast are twice the side that Ruch are and with goals and momentum favouring them ahead of this tricky tie today, I can’t help but feel that Piast are priced far too long at 11/10, particularly with Ruch missing three-quarters of their defensive backbone for this game.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 11/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory – home win at evens.
I’ve not ventured much into the A-League this season because it’s largely unpredictable, something which is well-illustrated by the fact that Sydney FC and Perth Glory are both closer to the bottom of the table than the top after eleven rounds of games!
However, I’m sticking my neck out to back Central Coast Mariners in this game. They’re a solid home side and have shown such this season with three wins in four home games with the only side to take anything from their trip here being in-form league leaders Adelaide United. The Mariners don’t score many goals but the best defence in the division keeps their home record strong so they have to be respected here. Perth Glory have struggled here many times in the past, losing four out of their last five visits here, drawing the other game, so Perth know what they’re up against. Ironically, this year Perth bring their strongest squad in years and yet they can’t buy a win for shit currently. They’ve lost six consecutive games and morale is naturally very low as a result. The biggest handicap of that, of course, is that your strikers don’t score goals, hence Perth failing to score in four out of those six games. They were destroyed 0-3 at home by out-of-form Sydney FC in their last match, which is unacceptable in accordance with the A-League thus far this season. It’s bizarre, really, considering the wealth of experience and ability that they boast in attack with Mile Sterjovski, Branko Jelic, and scouse twat Robbie Fowler all viable options but I daresay too many cooks are spoiling the broth here. The Mariners are not a side to face when you’re not playing well and I don’t see a potent but drastically out-of-form Perth Glory side scoring here against the meanest defence in the league as a result. Will the hosts score? They tend to get a couple of token goals at home so I fancy the home win at evens today.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at evens.
Sturm Graz vs Wacker Innsbruck – home win at 3/4.
Ok, Wacker Innsbruck have had a good campaign but seriously – are the bookies genuinely suggesting that Sturm Graz winning this game at 3/4 is a realistic price? The hosts have been a top four side in the Bundesliga for longer than I care to remember and although they don’t win every game, they’re still a far better side than Wacker Innsbruck. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Wacker Innsbruck because of their infectious tenacity, irrepressible potency, and strong belief. I don’t bet against them lightly as a result! However, there’s no way on earth that Sturm should be longer than 1/2 here, especially now Wacker’s honeymoon period in the Bundesliga is gradually coming to an end. They’ve caused their upsets and now they’re on a slippery slope downwards after five games without victory, losing three times and failing to score in four of those games. Wacker are an old Austrian club and won’t surrender easily as a result but they’ve naturally become a bit predictable since promotion and sides are finding it easier to play against them, especially the bigger sides who got burned in the early Bundesliga rounds this season. Salzburg drubbed Wacker 4-0 in their last game mid-week, which doesn’t help the Wacker mentality as it showed their first sign of genuine weakness this season. That’s the last thing they needed ahead of a tough trip to Graz to face a Sturm side that have had seven days rest as opposed to their three and a Sturm side whose only notable absentee is Bukva from midfield. Sturm have lost their last two home games consecutively, admittedly, although I’d hasten to point out that they played two good sides – Austria Vienna and SV Ried respectively – so it’s not all doom and gloom. Sturm annihlated Kapfenberg 0-4 on the road in their last game so the momentum from that game should provide enough impetus for the hosts to win this one without any great ceremony today against a somewhat lacklustre and vulnerable Wacker Innsbruck today at surprisingly generous odds of 3/4.
Verdict: Sturm Graz to win at 3/4.
Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv – away win with +1.5 handicap at 13/10.
I’m not going to argue the fact that Levski Sofia are currently the best side in Bulgaria but the odds for this game are laughable – it’s like the bookies have priced Lokomotiv Plovdiv as the side that they were a couple of years ago! Lokomotiv Plovdiv had some heavy investment over the summer and look a lot better for it. In fact, I’d call them a top five side in the A PFG currently so there’s no way on earth they should be 12/1 just to win this game! I’d be surprised to see Loko win the game, whilst we’re on the topic, but I do think they’ll cause Levski a lot of problems today. Five wins from five home games and an average of three goals being scored per home game gives Levski the right to feel that they should win this game comfortably but again, I have my reservations regarding the hosts due to the visitors being hard to beat. Loko are generally a much stronger side at home than they are away from home, naturally, but they’ve only lost twice this season in six away games whilst averaging scoring a goal per game and conceding approximately 1.5 goals per away game. They’re unbeaten in four consecutive games and the only two sides to beat them this season whilst playing away from home have been Levski’s neighbours Slavia and Lokomotiv Sofia respectively so Lokomotiv Plovdiv are certainly no walkovers anymore. My biggest critique regarding the visitors is their over-reliance on ageing striker Lazarov but the same can be said for Levski Sofia of their French target man Dembele. Levski also have problems ahead of this game in that they host French side LOSC Lille in a few days in the UEFA Europa League so may rest players. They also suffered a heavy blow by losing at title rivals Litex Lovech a few days ago thanks to a last minute goal from experienced striker Svetoslav Todorov and the defeat was made heavier by playmaker Tasevski’s dismissal, as he now misses this game today. So Levski have more reliance on Joaozinho in midfield to create chances for Dembele and against a good Loko Plovdiv side, I just don’t see the hosts running riot here.
Levski are favourites for this game and deservedly so but I think the odds are a joke here. Lokomotiv Plovdiv are a much better side than they were a couple of years ago – they’re really hard to beat nowadays – and giving them a +1.5 goal head start at 13/10 looks an absolute steal today with the above in mind.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 13/10.
Atletico Huila vs Boyaca Chico – home win at 4/5.
You’ve got to love Colombian football, haven’t you? It’s the only league I know of whereby the worst side in the division can easily beat the best side in the division purely because they’re playing at home. Betting in this league is always dangerous, not only because there isn’t much class difference but also because there are a lot of tempremental hispanic players in the Primera A and most sides also have no capability when it comes to playing away from home. Tonight’s game is no exception to the above so I’m taking a chance on Atletico Huila. Why?
Well, aside from the above, the hosts have played well this season with five wins and two draws in seven home games, scoring an average of over two goals per home game. Huila aren’t a particularly good side, in my opinion – top eight at best – but home advantage means a lot in Colombia and they’re one of the sides that is making it count this season. Only giants Deportes Tolima have outscored Atletico Huila at home this season, which naturally plays a large part in my bet. I’d not touch the game without it, in fact – Huila have a very poor head-to-head record against battling Boyaca Chico. However, Huila’s ability to score goals all over the field gives me faith in their side as I believe this is one of their strongest sides in years, especially with emerging talent Carbonero in such good form. He’s inspiring the side to some great displays and with the likes of Araujo and Henriquez supporting him in midfield and Del Valle and veteran Velasquez in attack, Huila look a potent attacking threat.
I have to confess that I do love betting against Boyaca Chico when the minnows are away from home, however. I used to make a lot of money on them when they first came on the scene because nobody really knew about them but the fact is that they’re not good travellers and haven’t been good travellers for some time. They’ve not won any of their seven away games in the Primera A this season, losing four times and drawing three along the way. Their spirit and courage can never be doubted – they’re arguably the most tenacious side in the division – but they lack an awful lot in front of goal and for that they’re often punished. It aids my bet that they’re not on a good run either with two defeats and one draw in their last three games whilst only scoring in one of those games.
Forget Chico’s good record here; Huila should be able to beat them comfortably here. Huila have a whole host of attacking options that Chico would kill for and with the visitors struggling in front of goal as usual, the home win at 4/5 looks appealing tonight.
Verdict: Atletico Huila to win at 4/5.
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Trans Narva – lay Trans Narva at 13/10.
Two things inspire this bet; motivation and managers.
The Meistriliiga season is nearly at a close with just two rounds of fixtures remaining and neither of these two sides have anything to play for. In my book, that always puts the advantage with the home side because they’re at least playing for the fans; the visitors rarely are. Maag Tammeka have had a mixed campaign but their emerging talented youngsters have served them well en mass and they should feel proud of that despite a poor run as the season began to end. However, those promising youngsters may relish the chance to shine today against Trans Narva because their opponents are rapidly becoming the most corrupt side in Eastern Europe. Manager Bondarenko has left Trans Narva following what can only be described as a very surprising 5-0 defeat at Lithuanian side Siauliai in the Baltic League lately. It’s surprising because the scoreline doesn’t reflect the closeness of the two teams and it’s no surprise that match-fixing allegations have surfaced yet again. Indeed, the future of Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga is in doubt following this revelation as it’s at least the third time this season that they’ve been accused of rigging a game. I think that will not only motivate their hosts against cheats but also demoralise Trans Narva themselves with their future in doubt and that’s the last thing you want as a player with no motivation and no manager. With the above in mind, I think Trans Narva are too short here and Maag Tammeka are good enough to take advantage of that so my call is to lay the visitors although caution is recommended as this is a meaningless game, after all!
Verdict: Lay Trans Narva at 13/10.
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart – home win at 21/20.
Neither side has had a glistening Bundesliga campaign but that’s for totally different reasons, in my opinion. Wolfsburg appointed Steve McClaren as their new manager and he’s naturally taking time to settle in to working with a very talented bunch of players whereas Stuttgart are just…terrible. Seriously. They’re not a patch on the side that they used to be. There’s a complete lack of creativity and finesse in this team, not to mention the fact that the few “big names” that they do have aren’t playing well. It’s no surprise to me whatsoever that Stuttgart have lost six out of nine games this season and I expect it to be seven out of ten after this game. Stuttgart are not only playing badly but they’ve got big defensive problems ahead of this game with Niedermaier and Degen injured and Delpierre suspended. Stuttgart also miss Gentner and Didavi from midfield so this thin and fairly predictable Stuttgart side is looking even more stretched so this is the perfect opponent for haphazard Wolfsburg today. The hosts have a full squad to choose from and with attacking wealth such as Dzeko, Grafite, Diego, and Kahlenberg in their side, I find it very hard to believe that they won’t capitalise on Stuttgart’s defensive woes by simply outscoring them. After all, Wolfsburg’s problems this season have stemmed from their defence as they take time to adjust to each other, not their ever-potent attack. For me, Wolfsburg are too long to win this game at 21/20 so the home win is my call here although over 2.5 goals looks a given too!
Verdict: VfL Wolfsburg to win at 21/20.
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
This big Athens derby is one of my favourite bets of the day due to the terrible state that Panathinaikos are in. They’ve got one competent striker – Cisse – who they rely far too much upon. Indeed, Panathinaikos appear to have given up playing football as they simply hoof the ball up front to their pacey frontman and try to win games that way so the hosts really aren’t the side that they were. Panathinaikos also look very slow in the sense that…well, there’s just no pace. Their pace comes from Cisse in attack and Leto and Govou on the flanks but Leto is injured for this game and Govou isn’t fully fit although he’ll have to play as Panathinaikos don’t have strength in-depth anymore. They therefore have a very old midfield for this game, especially so as starlet Ninis also misses this game through injury so I feel their decadent tactics may take a bit of a pounding from their bitter rivals today unless they’re very careful.
It doesn’t aid Panathinaikos’ cause that Olympiakos look invincible as the magnificent Valverde has finally returned to the helm of the club for the second time. Olympiakos look fresh, creative, well-organised, and incredibly potent – everything that Panathinaikos aren’t currently. There’s flair, pace, and great passing in Olympiakos’ tactics of late but the same can’t be said for their hosts. Olympiakos may miss target man Pantelic for this match but the attacking options of Rommedahl, Mitroglou, and Miralles are more than enough on their own, especially with the creativity of Ibagaza, Riera, and emerging prospect Fetfatzidis in midfield.
You have to be careful with derbies for obvious reasons but this looks a golden opportunity for Olympiakos to win today. They did the double over Panathinaikos last season and with the hosts looking poor and predictable and the visitors looking galvanised and dangerous, the away win with draw no bet looks a great bet at 11/10 today.
Verdict: Olympiakos Piraeus to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Aris Salonika vs Atromitos – lay Aris Salonika at 5/4.
I’m a big advocate of backing Aris in Salonika but European committments have rendered them somewhat vulnerable this season, as you’d expect from a talented but stretched squad. This game is particularly unfortunate in its placing for the hosts as it follows a disappointing defeat at lowly Trikala in the Greek Cup mid-week after playing 120 minutes of football, losing on penalties. Aris then have to contend with arguably the best Atromitos side in years whilst actually focusing on their home game with German giants Bayer 04 Leverkusen in just a few days times. Battling Aris are going to have to rest players here given their last match and their next match and Atromitos are a good enough side to take advantage of that fact. Atromitos tend to play better at home for obvious reasons but they’re not an easy side to beat anymore so why Aris are so short to win this game is beyond me. Aris had a good campaign last year and have played well this year too but there’s no logic in Aris being priced so short here. Atromitos are unbeaten in five consecutive games and enjoyed a much more satisfactory Greek Cup experience by winning 1-3 at Anagennisi Karditsas mid-week so they should be confident ahead of the tough trip to Salonika. Experienced duo Henri Camara and Marek Sagnaowski should be in prime position to cause problems for their tired hosts today and I’d be quite surprised to see Atromitos lose this one with the above in mind so my call is to lay Aris at rather generous odds.
Team news – Aris miss Pritas, Tzezarek, and Misel whereas Atromitos miss Massamba, Sarmiendo, Vignal, Anastasakos, and Mpala for this game.
Verdict: Lay Aris Salonika at 5/4.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Padova – both sides to score at 4/5.
From a personal perspective, I’d like to see Atalanta win this game and they’re one of the best sides in Serie B so they really should. However, this is the best Padova side I’ve seen since the days of Nicola Amoruso, who ironically enough is in the Atalanta Bergamo ranks for this game – it’ll no doubt be an emotional occasion for the experienced striker – so I suspect we’ll see a much closer game than the bookies expect. Atalanta’s problem of late has been conceding stupid goals and that’s not a trait you want to take into a game with a very well-organised Padova side. True enough, Padova don’t travel well but if you give them the opportunity to score then they’ll generally take it. Atalanta have conceded for five consecutive games now, not to mention their last four home games in a row. They’re not playing particularly well although they always have the quality in their ranks to score goals. Padova took a 4-0 drubbing at Udinese mid-week in the Coppa Italia but had scored in six consecutive games prior to that whilst conceding in four of those games. Padova’s strength is defence and they will line up defensively here but Atalanta are going to score against them at somepoint so Padova will have to come out of their shells and when they do, I expect Atalanta to give away their atypical stupid goal due to bad defending. I’m not touching the 1×2 market here although Atalanta should win it but both sides to score at 4/5 looks a given here between two good sides.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Vegalta Sendai vs Kyoto Sanga – home win at 4/5.
The J-League season isn’t over yet but Kyoto Sanga are relegated – not officially, but they know it and their fans know it. They’ve been diabolical this season, rarely threatening opposing goals and rarely looking interested enough to try and do so. They’re not a threat to the average J-League side and concede far too many goals to be anything but cannon fodder generally. They’re facing an in-form Vegalta Sendai side that are trying incredibly hard to beat the drop and it’s working following some successful results of late. Indeed, both sides need the points here but only the hosts look remotely interested in taking them. The only side to beat Vegalta in their last five games was league leaders Nagoya Grampus in a 2-1 win thanks to a late winner from Ogawa. In games surrounding that fixture, Vegalta have not only drawn with high-flying Cerezo Osaka away from home but have also won at giants Yokohama F.Marinos and won two consecutive home games against FC Tokyo and Montedio Yamagata respectively, all of which are a lot better than Kyoto Sanga!
I’d generally not touch a relegation battle game at 4/5 but Sanga look forlorn and timid whereas the hosts are roaring as they enter this game so the home win looks logical and hopefully profitable here.
Verdict: Vegalta Sendai to win at 4/5.
Ruch Chorzow vs Arka Gdynia – under 1.5 goals at 27/20.
Under 1.5 goals games are notoriously hard to call for obvious reasons but if there is to be one today that goes under 1.5 goals then it has to be in this game. Ruch have only one good player left and that’s Sedlok in defence, who is set to move to Polonia Warsaw in the next transfer window to ease Ruch’s financial crisis. They have good attackers anymore and thus they don’t score goals. They fielded a first team line-up against minnows Olsztyn in the Cup mid-week and were taken to extra-time and penalties where they eventually triumphed after playing their third game out of four without scoring. They’ll thus be somewhat tired for this game and unlikely to further their record of having scored just a goal per home game. Ruch are still competent in defence but to stop Arka scoring on the road, you don’t need to be competent – you just need a few lamp-posts. Arka look impotent without departed striker Tshibamba and are the only Ekstraklasa side yet to score an away goal in the division. Ruch can at least defend so I’d be surprised to see Arka’s run change today. Arka don’t concede easily though – they average conceding a single goal per away game so far this season but they simply don’t score.
Therefore, I’d avoid the 1×2 market here but under 1.5 goals looks to contain some value at 27/20.
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 27/20.
Cracovia Krakow vs Polonia Bytom – home win at evens.
This is one of the stranger tips that I’ll be making during my lifetime but I like it nonetheless.
In the last twenty-four hours, a bizarre event occurred; Polonia Bytom allowed manager Szalatow depart to manage…yes, you guessed it – their hosts today, Cracovia Krakow! They’ve brought in ex-Legia Warsaw manager Jan Urban to replace him but the timing of this switch is utterly priceless. The advantage has to be with the hosts for thisg ame for obvious reasons so my call here is the home win!
Team news – Polonia miss promising midfielder Matawu through ongoing work permit problems.
Verdict: Cracovia Krakow to win at evens.
Otelul Galati vs CFR Cluj – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
This bet looks a lot more obvious than it should, in my opinion. In a way, I’d prefer it had Otelul not had a spectacular start in order to get better odds because Otelul always make game in Galati a nightmare for away sides but a good start has left them priced at 4/5 with DNB. Nonetheless, I like the call anyway as CFR Cluj are some distance from the side that they were. They’ve got problems with defence and even problems in attack without influential attacker Kone, who is still out for some time with injury. Instead, Cluj place their hopes in emerging talent Traore, who is the “next Adebayor”, if you are to believe the rumours. I rate the kid but that’s a hefty accolade for someone his age! Either way, Cluj aren’t firing on all cylinders because of the missing Kone and their defence has been disrupted after the trouble with their coach a few weeks ago which led to strange decisions like playmaker Peralta being omitted from the club’s UEFA Champions League squad. Cluj still have classy players like Culio available to them but to say they’re at full-strength would be a lie – hell, it took them seventy minutes to score against a nameless, ten-man Unirea Urziceni last match so don’t be fooled by them here. Cluj will be looking at their game with Bayern Munich next week so I expect them to rest players here, which is dangerous. Cluj haven’t won here for two consecutive years, even losing here last season, so they know they’re in for a rough ride today. Otelul play in-your-face tactics which doesn’t leave any side the time to dwell on the ball and an impressive win at Gaz Metan Medias last match gives them good momentum to take into this game. Let’s not forget that Otelul have had six days to prepare for this game too whereas Cluj played a Cupa Romaniei game just a few days ago. Otelul are fresh and raring to go, as usual, whereas Cluj seem to appear sporadically so I don’t know which Cluj will turn up today.
Despite Cluj possessing a superior side to Otelul, I still don’t see the hosts losing this one today. Otelul don’t lose in Galati, simply put, and Cluj have their attention elsewhere so my call is the home win with draw no bet at 4/5 in what should be a very tight and low-scoring affair.
Verdict: Otelul Galati to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor – lay Galatasaray at 11/8.
Galatasaray have brought back former legendary midfielder Gheorghe Hagi to manage the club after Frank Rijkaard departed but is that enough to save them? I doubt it. I fear the backlash of a side welcoming a new manager against Antalyaspor today but with that being my sole concern for the visitors, I think it’s fair to say that there’s value on the away win.
You see, Galatasaray have been steadily slipping down the quality ladder in the last couple of years and now have a squad nucleus containing Neill, Baros, Kewell, and Arda – the rest of their players simply aren’t good enough. Those four players are the only ones with experience and/or ability and the good news for Antalyaspor fans is that Arda and Baros both definitely miss this game whilst Kewell is a doubt. Without those four players, Galatasaray are not better than their opponents, in my opinion, and therefore their odds are far too short here. Antalyaspor have played well this season and have only lost twice in nine Super Lig games as a result. Only Besiktas JK and Fenerbahce have beaten them this season too so you can see it takes a monumental effort to shift them currently. The absence of Tita from midfield is admittedly a hefty blow for the visitors but Gala are vulnerable enough for the visitors to hold them off today.
Food for thought – Galatasaray have only beaten Antalyaspor once in their last four home meetings with them and I don’t believe Galatasaray have looked as weak as they do now for many years.
Team news – Gala miss Baros, Arda, Yilmaz, Akman, and have doubts over Kewell whereas Antalyaspor miss Tita and Baris.
Verdict: Lay Galatasaray at 11/8.
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Shakhtar Donetsk – away win at 3/4.
Dnipro used to be able to hold a candle to Shakhtar but that’s not really the case nowadays. Dnipro understandably didn’t react well to having points deducted in recent times after their match fixing allegations and although their form is picking up, they’re still not looking themselves. Dnipro’s strength was always defending but defending against Shakhtar is like pissing in the wind – unless you’re exceptional at it, which they’re not, then it’s not going to go well! Dnipro haven’t even manged to beat Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih or Shakhtar Donetsk’s feeder club Zorya Lugansk in their last two home games so what they’re planning to do to beat Shakhtar is beyond me. Dnipro do have some players that are keen to make their mark here – ex-Shakhtar strikers Seleznev and Gladkyi, for example – but the visitors should be too good for Dnipro. Shakhtar possess a lot of good passers of the ball, good creative players, and incisive finishers. Shakhtar have a game at home to Arsenal in a few days time to think of so they may rest players here but I doubt it – Dnipro shouldn’t concern them as much nowadays as they used to. For me, this game will be a long battle between defence and attack and it’s only a matter of time before Luiz Adriano inevitably scores a scrappy goal which will either open the game up or kill it off entirely. Either way, I think taking Shakhtar at 3/4 against anyone in the Premier League currently is good value, let alone a bumbling Dnipro side that don’t score enough goals.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at 3/4.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Universidad Catolica, Hajduk Split, Dinamo Zagreb, FC Copenhagen, Vejle, Deportivo Cuenca, Cardiff City, Huddersfield Town, Shrewsbury Town, Wycombe Wanderers, Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, Olympique Lyonnais, Hertha HSC Berlin, Ferencvaros, Novara, Gamba Osaka, Cruz Azul, Porto, Spartak Moscow, Rangers, Partizan Belgrade, Maribor, Vaduz, Metalist Kharkiv.
Recommended bets:
Vaduz, Dinamo Zagreb, and Olympiakos DNB at 3/1.
Piast Gliwice, BATE Borisov, and Sturm Graz at 3/1.
Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, and lay Trans Narva at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar (6) 0-0
Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory (7) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs Wiener Neustadt (7) over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) 2-0
SV Mattersburg vs SV Kapfenberg (5) 1-0
LASK Linz vs SV Ried (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs BATE Borisov (8) 0-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Mechelen (7) 2-1
Germinal Beerschot vs Sint-Truiden (5) 1-0
Zulte-Waregem vs Lokeren (6) 1-1
Eupen vs Lierse SK (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge (6) under 2.5 goals
Brazilian Serie A:
Internacional vs Santos (5) 1-1
Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama (7) 1-1
Palmeiras vs Goias (7) 2-0
Gremio Prudente vs Cruzeiro (5) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Avai vs Guarani (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Bulgarian A PFG:
Akademik Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (5) under 2.5 goals
Rakovski vs Kaliakra (5) 1-1
Sliven vs Montana (6) 1-0
CSKA Sofia vs Beroe (6) 2-1
Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (7) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
O’Higgins vs Nublense (6) 1-0
Universidad Catolica vs La Serena (8) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (7) 1-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Huila vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica (6) under 2.5 goals
Istra 1961 vs Karlovac (4) 1-1
Sibenik vs Rijeka (6) 1-1
Hajduk Split vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac (9) -1.5 handicap
Osijek vs Varteks Varazdin (6) 2-1
Inter Zapresic vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 0-2
Zadar vs Split (4) 0-1, draw no bet
NK Zagreb vs Cibalia Vinkovci (5) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs APOEL Nicosia (7) 1-2
Doxa vs Anorthosis Famagusta (7) 0-1
Apollon Limassol vs AEL Limassol (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Slavia Prague (7) 1-1
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Prague (6) 1-2
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen vs Lyngby (8) 2-0
Randers vs Aalborg BK (5) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Vejle vs Vestjaelland (8) under 2.5 goals
Bronshoj vs Kolding (6)
Hobro vs Hvidovre (6)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Deportivo Quito (5) 1-2
Deportivo Cuenca vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) 2-0
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs West Ham United (8) over 2.5 goals
Blackburn Rovers vs Chelsea (6) 0-1
Everton vs Stoke City (7) 2-0
Fulham vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Manchester City (4) under 2.5 goals
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
English Championship:
Portsmouth vs Nottingham Forest (6)
Cardiff City vs Norwich City (8) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Swansea City (6) under 2.5 goals
Reading vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley (6)
Ipswich Town vs Millwall (6)
Scunthorpe United vs Leeds United (5) over 2.5 goals
Sheffield United vs Coventry City (6)
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City (5) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs Preston North End (6) over 2.5 goals
Derby County vs Watford (5)
Barnsley vs Hull City (6)
English League One:
Notts County vs Southampton (6)
Bournemouth vs Colchester United (5)
Bristol Rovers vs Carlisle United (5) over 2.5 goals
Oldham Athletic vs Plymouth Argyle (6)
Peterborough United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Exeter City vs Brentford (6)
Tranmere Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons (5) under 2.5 goals
Yeovil Town vs Swindon Town (7)
Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday (5) draw no bet
Leyton Orient vs Rochdale (4)
Huddersfield Town vs Walsall (8) over 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Hartlepool United (5)
English League Two:
Macclesfield Town vs Burton Albion (5)
Stockport County vs Hereford United (5)
Torquay United vs Morecambe (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Barnet (8)
Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Bradford City vs Oxford United (3)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Lincoln City (8)
Southend United vs Rotherham United (6)
Aldershot Town vs Bury (6) draw no bet
Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra (5)
Northampton Town vs Gillingham (5)
Stevenage vs Chesterfield (7)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Paide (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Viljandi Tulevik vs Levadia Tallinn (8) 0-2
Lootus vs Kuressaare (5) 1-2
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Trans Narva (5) 1-1
Flora Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju (8) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga Play-Off:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Viikingit Helsinki (5) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs OGC Nice (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (4) 1-0
Lorient vs Arles (7) 2-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Sochaux (8) 2-0
Toulouse vs Racing Club Lens (7) 1-0
Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Rennais (5) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg (7) 2-0
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart (6) 2-1
Koln vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-1
Kaiserslautern vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (5) 2-1
St.Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt (5) 1-1
Schalke 04 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Ingolstadt (8) -1.5 handicap
Karlsruher SC vs 1860 Munich (6)
Greek Super League:
Larissa vs Xanthi (6) 1-0
Aris Salonika vs Atromitos (4) 1-1
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus (6) 1-2, draw no bet, at least one red card in this game
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ferencvaros vs Szolnoki MAV (8) over 2.5 goals
MTK Budapest vs Zalaegerszegi TE (5) 2-1
Vasas Budapest vs Szombathelyi Haladas (7) 2-0
Siofok vs Lombard Papa (5) 1-1
Gyori ETO FC vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
AS Roma vs Lecce (7) 2-1
AC Milan vs Juventus (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie B:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Padova (6) both sides to score
Cittadella vs Grosseto (4)
Empoli vs Crotone (6) under 2.5 goals
Frosinone vs Triestina (6)
Livorno vs Reggina (6) over 2.5 goals
Novara vs Albinoleffe (8)
Pescara vs Modena (5)
Portosummaga vs Piacenza (6)
Vicenza vs Varese (5)
Japanese J-League:
Vegalta Sendai vs Kyoto Sanga (6) 1-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo (7) 2-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka (5) 2-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Montedio Yamagata (6) 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Jubilo Iwata (3) 1-1
Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe (8) 2-0
Shonan Bellmare vs Omiya Ardija (4) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Puebla (8) 2-0
Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM (5) 1-1
Tigres UANL vs Jaguares (6) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara (6) 1-0
Atlas vs Pachuca (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Dutch Eredivisie:
VVV Venlo vs Groningen (6) 0-1
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap (7) 2-0
Excelsior Rottedam vs Heerenveen (5) 1-1
Heracles Almelo vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
PSV Eindhoven vs Twente Enschede (6) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs Veendam (6)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Sportivo Luqeuno vs Rubio Nu (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Tacuary vs Sport Colombia (5) 2-1
Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 1-2
Peruvian Primera Division:
Sport Boys vs Juan Aurich (4) 1-1
Melgar FBC vs Cienciano (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Ruch Chorzow vs Arka Gdynia (7) 0-0
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce (5) 1-0
Cracovia Krakow vs Polonia Bytom (5) 1-0
Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Polish 1 Liga:
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Warta Poznan (5)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Piast Gliwice (7)
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (6) both sides to score
Kluczbork vs Gornik Leczna (4)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (7)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Sporting Braga (5) 1-2
Academica de Coimbra vs Porto (8) 0-2
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs CFR Cluj (5) draw no bet, under 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow vs Sibir Novosibirsk (7) 2-0
Spartak Moscow vs Rostov-na-Donu (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Celtic (7) 1-2
Dundee United vs Hibernian (5) 2-2
Motherwell vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 2-1
Rangers vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (9) -1.5 handicap
St.Mirren vs Aberdeen (4) 1-2
Serbian Super Liga:
Borac Cacak vs Spartak Subotica (5) 0-0
OFK Belgrade vs Smederevo (6) 2-1
Sevojno vs BSK Borca (6) 2-0
Metalac GM vs Javor Ivanjica (3) 0-1, draw no bet
Indjija vs Cukaricki (7) 2-0
Partizan Belgrade vs Jagodina (8) 2-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Kosice vs Nitra (6) over 2.5 goals
Dubnica vs Senica (5) 1-1
Zlate Moravce vs Slovan Bratislava (4) 1-2, draw no bet
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Ruzomberok (6) 1-0
Tatran Presov vs Spartak Trnava (6) 1-2
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Maribor (8) over 2.5 goals
Koper vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Valencia CF vs Real Zaragoza (5) 2-1
Hercules Alicante vs Real Madrid (7) 0-1
Barcelona vs Sevilla CF (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Salamanca (6)
Huesca vs Numancia (5)
Villarreal II vs Cartagena (6)
Granada vs Deportivo Xerez (5)
Albacete vs Girona (5) under 2.5 goals
Ponferradina vs Las Palmas (4)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs Trelleborg (6) 1-1
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Bellinzona (7) over 2.5 goals
FC Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax (5) over 2.5 goals
Sion vs Luzern (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Chiasso (8)
SC Kriens vs Lausanne Sports (7)
Locarno vs Biel-Bienne (4)
Stade Nyonnais vs Wohlen (5)
Yverdon Sport vs Wil (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Ankaragucu (5) 1-1
Gaziantepspor vs Karabukspor (5) 1-1
Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor (4) 2-2
Ukrainian Premier League:
Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty Lviv (6) under 2.5 goals
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Shakhtar Donetsk (7) 1-2
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Zorya Lugansk (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Metalist Kharkiv vs Obolon Kiev (8) over 2.5 goals
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Central Espanol vs Montevideo Wanderers (6) 1-1
Rampla Juniors vs Miramar Misiones (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs River Plate Montevideo (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus UK vs Carmarthen Town (6) 1-1
Haverfordwest County vs Prestatyn Town (5) 1-1
Port Talbot Town vs Llanelli (4) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!