Sampdoria vs AC Milan
FreeJust so you’re all aware – I’ve missed out both the Greek Super League and the Greek B Ethniki on purpose today due to a large number of games being fixed – there’s basically no value there.
A fairly disappointing saturday is followed up by a rather barren sunday so hopefully we can squeeze some money out of the bookies today with the few options available to us!
Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Sampdoria and AC Milan. Both sides need a win to further their European aspirations so we should see a good open game between the two today.
Sampdoria are one of just three Serie A sides unbeaten at home this season so it’s fair to say that they’re a force on their own turf. No side has conceded less goals than they have at home with just nine conceded in sixteen games. Sampdoria have won ten out of their sixteen games at home and have averaged scoring nearly two goals per game along the way so they are a constant threat for visiting sides. They’ve won three out of their last five games, winning two out of their three home games during that run with their most recent win being against bitter rivals Genoa. With that in mind, Sampdoria enter this game with a lot of confidence and momentum in their desperate push for European football, something they’ve not had for some time now. Sampdoria haven’t had a good record at home to AC Milan since their glory days of the mid-90’s but they did begin the transformation from name into a good team last season, something which was shown during their 2-1 win at home to AC Milan last season. Sampdoria are a growing side and they’re looking a very strong unit at the present time with potency and defensive stability being abundant in quantity within this squad so it’s wise not to underestimate them. A win today would see Sampdoria leapfrog Palermo into the UEFA Champions League Qualifier place if Palermo fail to win at Cagliari so Sampdoria will be desperate to maintain their good to further their chances.
Visitors AC Milan have started to look their age lately with just one win in five games. They’ve drawn their last three home games consecutively against sides that they’re better than so they’re really not feeling the confidence at the moment. They’ve won just once in their last three away games and it’s a lack of wonderkid Alexandre Pato’s goals that is damaging AC Milan. This miss his youth, his flambuoyancy, his goalscoring ability, and most of all his pace. AC Milan have some wonderful footballers but they need younger players in their side because without them they simply can’t win the games that they have to. AC Milan’s Serie A title dream is virtually over and anything but a win here will seal that fate, in my opinion. Bluntly, AC Milan have to win this game and they don’t look to have the confidence to do so.
We should see an entertaining game between two good sides here but only Sampdoria convince me that they’re the real deal at the moment. They look more likely to score the chances that they’ll get, they’re in better form, and they’re stronger defensively. Few sides have been stronger than Sampdoria this season on their own turf and I expect AC Milan to experience that first-hand today by losing. The odds on Sampdoria to win this game look very generous indeed despite the risk factor!
Verdict: Sampdoria to win at 13/8.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Udinese vs Bologna – beware of!
All I can say is be cautious with this game. There is no reason that Udinese should be at evens to win this game when they’re the better side, dominant at home, and are in-form – they should be 4/6 at least. Bologna are terrible at the moment. Personally, I’d say Udinese are virtually safe due to the quality in their side so I’m wondering if there’s some scam going on because the draw for this game is at evens, which is ridiculous – no game between these two sides has ended in a draw for many years now. Bologna need the points and Udinese may just take a bit of pleasure in helping Atalanta obtain relegation. Just food for thought but I’d stay away from this one.
Montana vs Beroe – home win at 4/5.
It takes a lot for me to go against little Beroe but a battering against Levski Sofia is sure to have hurt them as well as bringing an abrupt end to their good run of form. Unfortunately for Beroe, they’re facing a very in-form Montana and will undoubtedly struggle against them today. Montana are unbeaten in their last three games, a run which was started by a very impressive draw at giants CSKA Sofia. Since then, Montana have overcome Chernomorets Burgas comfortably and battered Lokomotiv Plovdiv whilst scoring six goals along the way so Montana are truly flying. They’ve surprised me with their recent incisive displays but it’s those which have ultimately tipped the scale in their favour, in my opinion. Beroe are strong defensively but the humiliation against Levksi last match will have hurt them and Montana are flying so the home win looks good value to me.
Verdict: Montana to win at 4/5.
Litex Lovech vs Lokomotiv Sofia – home win at 4/5.
This top-of-the-table clash will make or break Lokomotiv Sofia’s title push as they’re already four points behind hosts Litex Lovech and need to win the game to have any chance of winning the A PFG. That leaves Lokomotiv with the unfortunate task of taking the game to Litex, which is always a dangerous idea given that they’ve won eleven out of twelve home games this season, which is more than any other side. They average scoring over two goals per home game and average conceding a goal once every six home games. Litex have won this fixture for thirteen out of their last fourteen games at home to Lokomotiv Sofia, drawing the other encounter, so are perfectly placed to win this one. Litex are the better of these two sides and it showed with a win at Lokomotiv earlier this season so I expect them to do the business today. Lokomotiv would have had a better chance had they not surprisingly drawn at home to Minior Pernik last match, a result which has interrupted their momentum and will most likely cause their downfall today.
There’s a fair class difference between these two sides that favours Litex and everything else is in their favour so why they’re 4/5 and not 4/6 is beyond me.
Verdict: Litex Lovech to win at 4/5.
AC Oulu vs Tampere United – home win at 6/4.
This is the first day of the Veikkausliiga for both sides but Finland fortunately grants us a slight insight into each side’s potential fortunes in the season ahead by putting a Liiga Cup tournament ahead of each Veikkausliiga campaign. Therefore, we have a fairly good idea of where both sides are at which is why the odds on the home win are so surprising.
AC Oulu are a side that I’ll be genuinely surprised to see still in this division next season. I said that before the Liiga Cup tournament and I’ll reiterate it now. However, they’ve been superb in the Liiga Cup this season and it took a penalty shootout with giants FC Honka Espoo to finally see off the plucky Veikkausliiga newcomers. AC Oulu won 3-0 at Tampere United during the Liiga Cup campaign and were generally impressive with four wins in six games. Their energetic style will assist them in battling against the drop and should serve them well for the first half of the Veikkausliiga campaign at least. I expect AC Oulu to enter this game with great vigour and cause a lot of problems for Tampere United (like they didn’t have enough already!) as a result. Tampere lost a lot of players due to financial difficulties so they’re either left with ageing players or very young players. That in itself could cause problems for Tampere long-term this season but one thing is for sure; they’re not ready for this game. They don’t travel well in general and still haven’t found a way to get the ball in the air to the re-signed Myntti so they’re not scoring many either. Ultimately, Tampere have problems and they shouldn’t be resolved before this game is played!
This could easily be the biggest clash in the Veikkausliiga when it comes to bankrupt sides but only one side is ploughing on through the mayhem and that’s little AC Oulu. I predict a tight game between two compact sides but I think Oulu’s energetic style and momentum from the Liiga Cup will give them just enough to take three points today at generous odds of 6/4.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 6/4.
Catania vs Siena – home win at 4/5.
There’s little between these two sides but Catania have won me over in spectacular fashion of late. They’ve lost just once in their last seven games and are unbeaten in their last eight home games, winning six times along the way. Catania have gained tremendous momentum from such an excellent run and are playing great football as a result. They claimed a 2-2 draw at the San Siro against AC Milan in their last game and were unfortunate not to take all three. They’ve overcome the likes of both Fiorentina and Internazionale during their recent home game tenure and frankly Catania look twice the side that they were earlier this season. Catania are all but clear of the drop zone now but need three points today to make sure and they’ve got more than enough in their favour to do so.
Visitors Siena need three points too but aren’t doing anywhere near as much as Catania are to get themselves out of it. They’re six points from safety and look very unlikely to avoid the drop as a result. Siena have lost their last two away games consecutively, conceding four goals along the way and failing to score in both games. Siena simply aren’t good enough in front of goal and tend to concede at least once hence them being on the receiving end of bad results. Twelve defeats in sixteen away games says that they don’t travel well so an in-form Catania should be able to run riot against a poor Siena side that simply cannot afford to sit back and counter-attack today.
Verdict: Catania to win at 4/5.
Brann Bergen vs Valerenga Oslo – away win at 15/8.
I’ve seen some peculiar odds and some bizarre odds but I’ve never seen odds quite as laughable as these odds. Brann Bergen are in the biggest crisis that they have been for some time. They’ve had it rammed home to them that Huseklepp is their only good player! Brann are spiralling downwards rapidly due to a severely inept defence which is averaging conceding just under three goals per game and that naturally means that you’ll lose most of your games, which, sure enough, Brann have! They’ve lost four out of their last five games and have done everything possible to decrease morale as swiftly as possible – lose emphatically to rivals, throw away leads, lose to inferior sides etc. – and it’s worked wonders as Brann are now at the bottom of a big barrel. Forget European football – they’ll be lucky to avoid relegation if things continue as they are!
Valerenga Oslo have looked decidedly assured in the Eliteserien this season with only an in-form Start Kristiansand having beaten them and that was largely due to suicidal defending which saw Valerenga concede five times. They’ve avoided defeat against the likes of Rosenborg and Stabaek so they’re more than capable of mixing it up with the title favourites this season. They’ve won their last two games consecutively at home to title challengers Molde and at a resilient Sandefjord so bring good momentum into this game. They’re strong tactically and have enough individual brilliance to shatter most, if not all, Eliteserien sides which is something that has become very apparent this season. I’m seeing a Valerenga that I’ve not seen for some time now and I like what I see – they’ve got a lot going for them and they could even be a black horse for the title this season if they maintain their curerent performances.
Valerenga won at Brann last season so they know how to do it. Brann have been absolutely terrible this season, moreso than I’ve ever seen them before, so they look likely to lose against anyone, let alone a competent Valerenga Oslo side. Valerenga play good football and Brann are conceding for fun so why the odds are so long on an away win is utterly beyond me. This could very well be the best value bet of the day if things go as planned today.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 15/8.
Accumulator fodder:
Salzburg, BATE Borisov, AA Gent, Germinal Beerschot, Slavia Prague, AB Copenhagen, Liga de Quito, BV09 Borussia Dortmund, Skonto Riga, Liepajas Metalurgs, FK Ventspils, Ekranas Panevezys, AZ Alkmaar, Lillestrom, Bodo Glimt, Porto, SL Benfica, Santa Clara, MSK Zilina, Athletic Club de Bilbao, Basel, Dynamo Kiev, Shakhtar Donetsk, Aragua.
Recommended bets:
Salzburg, Athletic Club de Bilbao, BV09 Borussia Dortmund, and AZ Alkmaar at 7/1.
AA Gent, Slavia Prague, Ekranas Panevezys, and Lillestrom at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Huracan (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Boca Juniors (5) 1-2
Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys (4) 0-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK Linz vs Salzburg (7) under 2.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dnepr Mogilev vs Partizan Minsk (6) 2-1
Dinamo Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (6) 2-0
Torpedo Zhodino vs Belshina (3) 1-1
BATE Borisov vs Neman Grodno (8) 2-0
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Vitebsk (7) 2-1
Dinamo Brest vs Minsk (6) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Anderlecht (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
AA Gent vs Zulte-Waregem (7) 2-1
Standard de Liege vs Racing Genk (6) 1-0
Germinal Beerschot vs Charleroi (7) 2-0
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Boussu Dour Borinage vs Brussels (7)
Tienen vs Beveren (6) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik vs CSKA Sofia (7) 0-1
Montana vs Beroe (6) 1-0
Litex Lovech vs Lokomotiv Sofia (7) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Envigado (5) 1-0
Deportivo Cali vs Cortulua (6) 2-1
Deportes Quindio vs America de Cali (4) 1-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Huila (6) 2-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Real Cartagena (5) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs APOEL Nicosia (6) 1-1
Apollon Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia (5) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians Prague vs Mlada Boleslav (6) 1-2
Ceske Budejovice vs Sparta Prague (5) 1-1
Slavia Prague vs Kladno (8) over 2.5 goals
Teplice vs Marila Pribram (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs Nordsjaelland (6) 1-1
Brondby vs AGF Aarhus (6) 2-1
SonderjyskE vs Randers (6) 0-1
HB Koge vs OB Odense (6) 0-1
Danish 1st Division:
Thisted vs Fyn (6)
Roskilde vs Viborg (7)
Skive vs Vejle (5)
Vestjaelland vs Braband (7)
Fredericia vs Lyngby (5)
AB Copenhagen vs Kolding (8)
Naestved vs Frem (6)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Universidad Catolica (8) 2-0
Manta vs Macara Ambato (6) 1-1
Espoli Cayambe vs Independiente (5) 0-0
El Nacional Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-2
English Premier League:
Wigan Athletic vs Arsenal (3) 1-1
Portsmouth vs Aston Villa (6) 1-2
English Championship:
Sheffield Wednesday vs Sheffield United (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik (7) 2-1
IF Fuglafjordur vs B71 (6) over 2.5 goals
Suduroy vs B68 (6) over 2.5 goals
AB vs B36 (7) 1-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
AC Oulu vs Tampere United (6) 1-0
VPS Vaasa vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 1-1
FC Honka Espoo vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs TPV Tampere (6)
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille vs AS Monaco (7) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Toulouse (5) 0-0
Saint-Etienne vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim (8) 2-0
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha HSC Berlin (6) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Udinese vs Bologna (5) 1-1
Atalanta Bergamo vs Fiorentina (6) 1-1
Parma vs Genoa (5) 2-1
Sampdoria vs AC Milan (7) 1-0
Bari vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-1
Cagliari vs Palermo (5) 1-1
Catania vs Siena (7) 2-0
Lazio vs AS Roma (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Japanese J-League:
Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare (5) 2-1
Kashima Antlers vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 1-0
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Kawasaki Frontale (4) 1-2
Latvian Virsliga:
Jurmala vs Liepajas Metalurgs (8) over 2.5 goals
FK Ventspils vs RFS/Olimps Riga (8) 2-0
Tranzits Ventspils vs Dinaburg Daugavpils (6) 1-1
Skonto Riga vs Jelgava (9) -1.75 handicap
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-1
Klaipeda vs Kruoja Pakruojis (4) 1-1
Vetra Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai (7) 2-0
Ekranas Panevezys vs Zalgiris Vilnius (8) over 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Puebla vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1
Pumas UNAM vs Morelia (7) 1-0
Santos Laguna vs San Luis (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heerenveen vs NAC Breda (6) 1-1
Twente Enschede vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (4) 1-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen (7) over 2.5 goals
Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar (8) 0-2
ADO Den Haag vs RKC Waalwijk (6) 2-1
Vitesse Arnhem vs Roda JC Kerkrade (5) 1-1
VVV Venlo vs NEC Nijmegen (4) 1-2
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Utrecht (6) 0-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Heracles Almelo (8) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Lillestrom vs Haugesund (7) 2-0
Stabaek vs Kongsvinger (7) over 2.5 goals
Stromsgodset vs Start Kristiansand (7) 1-1
Odd Grenland Skien vs Molde FK (4) 1-1
Brann Bergen vs Valerenga Oslo (6) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Strommen vs Lyn Oslo (5)
Ranheim vs Bryne (6)
Bodo Glimt vs Nybergsund (8)
Fredrikstad vs Mjondalen (7)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Sandnes Ulf (7)
Follo vs Alta (5)
Moss vs Tromsdalen (6)
Sogndal vs Sarpsborg 08 (7)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Belenenses vs Rio Ave (6) 1-1
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Uniao de Leiria (7) 1-0
Academica de Coimbra vs SL Benfica (8) 1-3
Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes (8) 2-0
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Santa Clara vs Freamunde (8)
Penafiel vs Estoril (7)
Carregado vs Varzim (6)
Fatima vs Oliveirense (5)
Trofense vs Desportivo Chaves (7)
Desportivo Aves vs Portimonense (6)
Romanian Liga:
Politehnica Iasi vs Otelul Galati (6) 1-1
Brasov vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 2-1
Rapid Bucharest vs Steaua Bucharest (5) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Terek Grozny vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 2-2
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Spartak Moscow (6) 1-2
Spartak Nalchik vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (5) 1-1
Russian Division 1:
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Avangard Kursk (5)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Salyut Belgorod (7)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Rotor Volgograd (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs Nizhnyi Novgorod (4)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Mordovia Saransk (7)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Energiya Khabarovsk (8)
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (7) under 2.5 goals
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (6)
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers vs Hearts (7) 2-1
Motherwell vs Dundee United (5) 1-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Spartak Subotica (7) 1-0
Partizan Belgrade vs Rad Belgrade (8) over 2.5 goals
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
MSK Zilina vs Ruzomberok (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga vs Real Valladolid (6) 1-1
Tenerife vs Getafe (6) 0-0
Deportivo Xerez vs Racing Santander (6) 1-2
Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria (6) 2-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Zaragoza (7) over 2.5 goals
Real Madrid vs Valencia CF (7) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Balompie (7)
Salamanca vs Cordoba (6)
Numancia vs Hercules Alicante (5)
Real Murcia vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Las Palmas vs Real Union Club de Irun (6)
Elche vs Castellon (5)
Cadiz vs Villarreal II (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs Elsborg Boras (5) 2-1
Halmstad vs GAIS Goteborg (6) 1-0
Swedish Superettan:
Ljungskile vs Landskrona BoIS (6)
Brage vs Trollhattan (5)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Norrkoping (6)
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs Young Boys Bern (5) 1-2
Basel vs Luzern (8) over 2.5 goals
St.Gallen vs Grasshoppers Zurich (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Locarno vs Biel-Bienne (6)
Schaffhausen vs Yverdon Sport (7)
Stade Nyonnais vs Lausanne Sports (6)
Servette vs Thun (5)
Wohlen vs Vaduz (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-1
Diyarbakirspor vs Kayserispor (5) 1-2
Antalyaspor vs Denizlispor (3) 1-1
Fenerbahce vs Besiktas JK (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Ukrainian Premier League:
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Arsenal Kiev (5) 1-1
Chernomorets Odessa vs Metalurg Donetsk (7) 1-1
Illichivets Mariupol vs Zorya Lugansk (6) 0-0
Dynamo Kiev vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (8) under 2.5 goals
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zakarpattya Uzhhorod (9) -1.75 handicap
Vorskla Poltava vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 1-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Montevideo Wanderers vs Tacuarembo (6) 2-1
Penarol vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (4) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Cerro Largo vs Cerro (6) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Atletico El Vigia vs Estudiantes de Merida (6) 1-0
Aragua vs Carabobo (7) 2-0
Centro Italo vs Deportivo Italia (6) 1-2
Trujillanos vs Zulia (6) 1-1
Llaneros de Guanare vs Zamora (5) 1-1
Deportivo Lara vs Yaracuyanos (7) 2-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Deportivo Tachira (5) 0-1
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Anzoategui (7) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!