Sao Paulo vs Flamengo
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie A game between giants Sao Paulo and Flamengo. I’ve loved betting against Sao Paulo this season as they’ve really struggled but they’re back in the driving seat now whereas visitors Flamengo are struggling to score goals so the hosts have a good chance tonight.
Sao Paulo are interestingly still mid-table despite a barren run but can only extend their thanks to their ever-reliable defence for that. Star striker Dagoberto went missing in recent times and was thus dropped from the side, which then meant Sao Paulo didn’t score goals. Playmaker Hernanes joined Lazio and it’s taken them some to time to adjust to his departure. However, Sao Paulo are mounting their atypical late run with four games without defeat. They’ve claimed an impressive draw at league leaders Fluminense along the way, albeit via a little fortune, and have won their last two games consecutively since then. Ironically, they’re abandoning their defensive nature in the search for goals and it’s yielding success for the giants with eight points taken from a possible twelve of late. They’ve scored seven goals along the way and have generally looked a very solid unit. Dagoberto may not be back to his best but he’s on his way and the side are clearly inspired by it with the likes of Fernandao getting on the scoresheet to bolster Sao Paulo’s cause. I’d argue that this side isn’t the best that they’ve had in years but they’re still one of the better sides in Brazil overall and their form is finally starting to show it. With momentum behind them and potency rife in the Sao Paulo camp, I fancy them to do a lot of damage tonight.
Visitors Flamengo are no mugs in defence but a complete lack of goalscoring generally renders them somewhat useless. Petkovic is a good player to have in the side but age is not on his side. Diogo is reportedly injured so the reliance lies with new signing Deivid and although he has the talent to fulfill the role, it’s still a big ask for him to do it tonight against in-form Sao Paulo. Flamengo are actually edging closer and closer to the unthinkable relegation places following just one win in their last ten games. They’ve only scored once in their last five consecutive games, which just isn’t good enough. Ok, they’ve only conceded four goals along the way during that run of five games but that’s been enough to see them lose three times because they’re not scoring. Morale is low and it’s very easy to understand why too. They’ve scored a meager five goals on the road this season in nine games, which is a record so bad that only Vitoria can match their poor goalscoring tally and they’re always poor away from home! As a result, Flamengo have lost six out of nine on the road and unless they pick things up soon, they’re going to be dragged into a relegation battle that I don’t think they’re good enough to get out of.
Basically, we have an in-form and potent Sao Paulo facing a demoralised and impotent Flamengo side in Sao Paulo. Logic says that Sao Paulo should have a lot of fun here and I’m inclined to agree with that. I appreciate Sao Paulo haven’t had a great season but 4/5 on a home win in this game is far too generous. Sao Paulo are scoring for fun and I seriously doubt Flamengo being able to even register a goal here. This game has a home win written all over it at rather good odds too!
Verdict: Sao Paulo to win at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense – both sides to score at 4/5.
I like this bet a lot, really. Gremio are generally an unders side due to stout defending and ineffectual attacking butt heir new brand of attacking football leaves them a potent threat with Gremio having scored for six successive games. They’ve gathered some momentum following three games unbeaten and even won their last home game. They claimed an impressive 2-2 draw at Botafogo last match and generally are showing a resilience that they’ve rarely had all season long and boy have they missed it! I still don’t rate their attack with only Jonas able to find the net currently but their momentum gives me confidence in their attack and they do average scoring over a goal per home game so far this season so they should be able to score tonight.
The big question is whether minnows Atletico Goianiense score or not. You could be forgiven for thinking that they wouldn’t be a mere glance at the Serie A table but that’s not really the case here. They’re in the relegation zone due to inexperience in the division and not taking their chances but neither seem to be affecting them currnetly. They’ve scored in five consecutive games now, games like their 3-0 win at Palmeiras, their 2-2 draw at home to Avai, and even a thumping 4-1 win at home to Vitoria last match. They’ve notched up eleven goals in five games now as the fear of relegation has hit them and they’re now playing as if released from a cage with goals galore and good results as an outcome. Only Sao Paulo have beaten them in their last five games so they won’t be daunted by a trip to Porto-Alegrense. Atletico are very much determined to beat the drop, based on the above evidence, so I think they have to go all out here to try and get some points and they’re more than capable of doing so in their current form.
I don’t know what’s going to happen as a result here. Quality-wise, Gremio should win this game every day of the week but the way both sides are playing at the moment leaves this game looking like a massive “over 2.5 goals” game and one where both sides score. I won’t be backing either side in the 1X2 market – no value there for me – so I’d recommend taking both sides to score, sitting back, and enjoying the ride here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Fluminense
Recommended bets:
Fluminense and Sao Paulo at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Copa Recopa Sudamericana:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Liga de Quito (7) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Ceara (8) over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense (6) both sides to score
Goias vs Guarani (6) 1-1
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo (7) over 2.5 goals
Vitoria vs Palmeiras (6) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians (7) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs Viikingit Helsinki (4) draw no bet
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Alta vs Nybergsund (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Etoile (6) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!