Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers
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Today’s secondary featured game is the English Premier League game in northern England between relegation-threatened Blackburn Rovers and newly-promoted Queens Park Rangers.
Just when Steve Kean could finally formulate a recognisable back four, he then loses French defender Givet for his ridiculous antics in Blackburn’s last game. They’ve already released big Ryan Nelsen and giant Samba is injured for this game so what on earth are Blackburn going to do here? If they can keep a clean sheet against any side in this division with the defenders available to them in this game then I’m going to be very impressed with them.
At the other end of the park, star striker Yakubu returns so Blackburn finally have a dangerous attack again. Blackburn have some talented players to support the Nigerian hitman, too, with Gamst Pedersen, Dunn, and Hoilett just to name a few. I expect Blackburn to adopt their usual attacking game here and stick to it, irrespective of their humbling at Arsenal lately. Blackburn will most probably score in this game as a result you have to expect them to concede here too.
With so many defenders out for Blackburn, QPR do look somewhat appealing with draw no bet. However, the absence of crazy Cisse up front through suspension casts some doubt in my mind as I’m not 100% convinced that QPR can score enough goals to win the game without him. I like Zamora a lot as a target man – he’s nearly unplayable on his day – but without a proper strike partner, I think he may struggle a little.
Still, i do think QPR will get something from the game. Taarabt is raring to go and QPR already look a lot better under Hughes than they did under Warnock. Whether that’s a temporary measure or not remains to be seen but QPR are both scoring and conceding goals under their new Welsh boss and I think that’ll continue in this rather instrumental game in the entertaining relegation battle.
For me, there has to be goals here. QPR are not good enough to stop Yakubu from doing his thing and Blackburn haven’t got any defenders capable of keeping tabs on Zamora. I’m not entering the 1×2 market but over 2.5 goals really appeals to me at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
This is one of those strange A-League games where no outcome would particularly surprise me. You could argue that Sydney have played better football than Perth Glory have en mass this season but Perth Glory look much better than them at the moment and they do possess a better calibre of player. Perth Glory are on a terrific run of form right now and you can’t rule them out from winning this one, especially with New Zealand striker Smeltz in superb form. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Glory buckle for no apparent reason as a side with a general lack of cohesion like them are prone to collapsing at some point. However, over 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot here as I do expect both sides to score and neither side are particularly good at defending, hence my selection!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Bolton Wanderers vs Wigan Athletic – home win at evens.
Both sides are pretty close to full-strength here with Bolton only missing the ever-absent Alonso and Wigan welcoming back Alcaraz and Diame. For me, Bolton are looking more impressive than Wigan right now, though. In Victor Moses, Wigan have a dangerous attacker that will cause a leaky Bolton defence problems, especially if they field a “new” defence with Ream potentially making his debut. Bolton’s whole defensive approach is shambolic with a lack of faith in their goalkeeper and a generally Championship level defence. However, their attack is much stronger than their record indicates and I think they’ve done enough in the transfer window to prove that. Japanese winger Miyachi was a great loan signing, in my view – it gives Bolton a tremendous option to change a game. Sordell isn’t a great striker but again, it gives Coyle options. Bolton have just looked better of late, more believing, if you will. A few new faces can change mentalities sometimes and I see that change in Bolton so I will give them the nod here. Wigan are calamitous at the back this season themselves but are really missing the goals that they’d have scored last season. They appear to be using the last of their nine lives this year and as much as I’d love them to stay up, I just don’t think they will. This game should ultimately become and open game and for me, Bolton have enough in their ranks to outscore Wigan in this local derby at decent odds.
Verdict: Bolton Wanderers to win at evens.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim – home win at 9/10.
As per usual, Werder Bremen have to contend with a rather damaging list of absentees but as ever, they seem to handle it well, especially at home. This side has already won seven out of nine on their own turf this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game so they’re usually a threat here. Pizarro’s absence today is a huge blow, of course, and Hunt’s absence doesn’t help either. However, they’re facing a Hoffenheim side that frankly aren’t that good, in my view, and should capitalise on that. Rosenberg and Arnautovic aren’t great by any stretch of the imagination but if Bremen play their usual game here then there should be ample opportunities for the hosts to win this one and I think they’ll manage it.
Hoffenheim wave goodbye to yet another manager and it’s starting to look bleak for them. I understand that they’re a selling club but they’re not replacing players that they lose each year and it’s going to hurt them ultimately. To make matters worse, their absentees are significantly more damaging than that of Bremen’s given that they lack depth. They miss instrumental defender Vorsah from the back, attacker Salihovic powering forward, and pacey Babel up front. You look at this Hoffenheim side and you have to question where the goals will come from and how they’ll manage to keep their usual clean sheet. Roberto Firmino is a threat but few others are, especially not up front. Hoffenheim may have been able to score a cheeky draw here with a full-strength team and an established manager but I just don’t think they’ll manage it.
Pizarro’s absence will hurt Bremen but for me, the home win looks a bit of a steal at evens, especially with Hoffenheim frequently struggling on the road.
Verdict: Werder Bremen to win at 9/10.
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Schalke 04 – home win at 7/5.
I’m not one to jump on the Gladbach wagon, really. I respect what they’ve done an awful lot this season. Reus has really established himself as one of the top strikers in Germany, hence Dortmund moving to secure his signature at the end of the current campaign. There’s perhaps not enough praise for talented boss Favre as he does a lot of the work behind the scenes but either way, Gladbach look a very solid and dependable unit. You could argue that they don’t score enough goals overall but they do very well at keeping other sides out so it balances out quite well. I finally feel that Gladbach’s odds are good value today, though. In previous weeks I’ve found them a shade short but today they look perfect for me to get involved.
Of course, it helps that I don’t rate Schalke 04 as a side. They’re a big side and can upset the odds in big games but they’re not a good side anymore. They were shambolic in their 1-1 draw with Mainz 05 last time out and even the return of veteran striker Raul can’t propel them back into a side that I respect or fear. They’re missing a couple of players today like Fahrmann and Jones but the big absence is that of influential midfielder Holtby, who is hard to replace in this squad. Huntelaar is a gifted finisher but as always I question where the chances will come from with their rather predictable midfield. Schalke do love to piss big sides off, as I mentioned earlier, but I just can’t take them seriously here as I don’t rate them as a good side nowadays.
I don’t expect a game that’s easy on the eye here but I do think Gladbach will do enough to win this one today. For me, the home win is well worth a flutter at 7/5.
Verdict: Borussia Moenchengladbach to win at 7/5.
Dunfermline Athletic vs Rangers – away win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Ok, Rangers are pretty barren up front but to say that they’re anything but light years ahead of Dunfermline would be a lie. I’d not take Rangers to beat this handicap against anyone else in the division with such big absentees in their ranks but seriously, Dunfermline cannot keep a clean sheet and they’re very, very short on quality. I don’t see Rangers conceding here and if they do then I fear for the bet as I’ve got 0-2 imprinted on my brain. It might even be worth a cheeky flutter on the correct scoreline although that’s always dangerous with a crazy side like Dunfermline who can score or concede at any time. I can’t overlook the generosity on the odds of the handicap, though. Rangers should manage this today and the odds are worth it, in my view.
Verdict: Rangers to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Osasuna vs Barcelona – home win with +1.5 handicap at 10/11.
This is a dangerous bet, of course. Going against Barcelona is always a tough one to pull off but I think Osasuna can do it. Forget their home record this season; that would be an easy way of explaining this one.
I don’t rate Osasuna as a good passing side or anything crazy like that. Most Primera Liga sides are capable of playing good football but that’s not really Osasuna’s style. No, they’re a more “English” type of side, I suppose you could say. They work hard, they’re well-organised, and they’re very physical. They’re a threat from set pieces and nobody really has an easy ride against them unless they’re away from home against a big side. In Pamplona, this is a very hard side to face, not least because of their passion and the fact that most Spanish people dislike them. Osasuna love being the underdogs and they can’t be more motivated this season than they are to play in this game, as all sides are against Barcelona. Osasuna were unlucky to lose the game between these two earlier in the season in the Copa del Rey, throwing a lead away to lose 1-2. Maybe they’ll have more fortune today; who knows? I fancy the chances of them hurting Barcelona though.
Barcelona are a glorious side, of course. However, they’re still missing that natural striker and it shows with the gluttony of chances that they keep missing in all of their recent games. They’ve looked nervous at the back although that should gradually disappear as Puyol etc. get back into full fitness. Barcelona just don’t look themselves, though. They’ve still got terrific passers of the ball and their midfield is superb but they’re playing against what is very likely to be a stubborn Osasuna 4-5-1. Do Barcelona have the stamina or the players to manage it? Iniesta made a brief cameo appearance against Valencia mid-week but he’s nowhere near 100% yet. Barcelona are running a little low on options and you have to play well to win in Pamplona so I think the Catalans are in for a rough time here.
For me, there’s value on giving Osasuna a +1.5 handicap here. Again, this is not one to stick your bank on but I do like the odds when you take into account the above, especially as Barcelona played mid-week whereas Osasuna have had a week to prepare for this game.
Verdict: Osasuna to win with a +1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Bayern Munich, AZ Alkmaar, SL Benfica, Rangers, Celtic.
Recommended bets:
Werder Bremen, Celtic -1.5 handicap, and AZ Alkmaar at under 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Ghana vs Mali (6) 1-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Belgrano de Cordoba vs All Boys (6) 2-1
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Newell’s Old Boys (6) 1-0
San Martin de San Juan vs Independiente (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Heart (7) 2-0
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory (5) 2-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs SV Ried (6) 1-0
Sturm Graz vs SV Mattersburg (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Lokeren (4) 2-2
Germinal Beerschot vs Sint-Truiden (5) 1-0
Kortrijk vs Mons (5) 1-0
Lierse SK vs Zulte-Waregem (5) 0-1
Westerlo vs OH Leuven (5) 1-1
Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen (7) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Union La Calera vs Palestino (6) 1-0
Cobresal vs Colo Colo (4) 1-1
Huachipato vs La Serena (7) 2-0
Audax Italiano vs Cobreloa (6) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Patriotas vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1
Atletico Huila vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 2-0
Real Cartagena vs Deportivo Cali (7) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis (6) 2-1
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia (6) 0-1
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (6) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Manta (8) 2-0
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs Liverpool (7) 2-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers (5) 2-2
Bolton Wanderers vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
Everton vs Chelsea (4) 1-1
Fulham vs Stoke City (7) 1-0
Sunderland vs Arsenal (5) 2-1
Swansea City vs Norwich City (7) 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United (7) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Peterborough United vs West Ham United (5)
Leicester CIty vs Cardiff City (6)
Southampton vs Burnley (6)
Barnsley vs Birmingham City (4)
Hull City vs Bristol City (7)
Reading vs Coventry City (7)
Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (4)
Millwall vs Derby County (7)
Nottingham Forest vs Watford (6)
Ipswich Town vs Middlesbrough (5)
Crystal Palace vs Doncaster Rovers (5)
Blackpool vs Portsmouth (7)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 1-1
JJK Jyvaskyla vs VPS Vaasa (7) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs Lorient (5) 1-0
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 2-1
Montpellier HSC vs AC Ajaccio (7) 2-0
Valenciennes vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs Dijon FCO (4) 1-1
Stade Rennais vs Sochaux (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7) 2-1
Bayern Munich vs Kaiserslautern (8) over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim (7) 2-0
Mainz 05 vs Hannover 96 (5) 1-1
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC Berlin (7) 2-0
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Schalke 04 (7) 1-0
Greek Super League:
Panionios vs PAS Giannina (6) 2-1
OFI Crete vs PAOK Salonika (5) 1-0
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya (6) 0-1
MS Ashdod vs Hapoel Haifa (6) 1-0
Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Acre (7) 2-1
Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (6) 1-2
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv (5) 1-1
Ironi Ramat Hasharon vs Beitar Jerusalem (6) 0-0
Italian Serie A:
Udinese vs AC Milan (6) 1-1
Cagliari vs Palermo (5) 2-2
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Queretaro (5) 1-0
Monterrey vs Guadalajara (7) 2-1
Pachuca vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 2-0
San Luis vs Tigres UANL (5) 0-0
Atlas vs America (6) 1-1
Atlante vs Toluca (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Rotterdam (8) -1.5 handicap
VVV Venlo vs Groningen (4) over 2.5 goals
Roda JC Kerkrade vs NEC Nijmegen (6) 2-2
NAC Breda vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 1-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-2
Deportivo Carapegua vs Cerro Porteno (6) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) 0-1
SL Benfica vs CD Nacional de Madeira (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Dunfermline Athletic vs Rangers (8) 0-2
Celtic vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (9) -1.5 handicap
Hibernian vs Aberdeen (4) 0-1
Kilmarnock vs Hearts (5) 1-1
St.Johnstone vs Dundee United (6) 2-1
St.Mirren vs Motherwell (5) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid (7) 0-2
Osasuna vs Barcelona (5) 1-1
Real Betis Balompie vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Murcia vs Elche (4)
Barcelona II vs Cartagena (7) over 2.5 goals
Sabadell vs Villarreal II (6)
Alcorcon vs Huesca (7)
Guadalajara vs Deportivo Xerez (6)
Alcoyano vs Las Palmas (5)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Numancia (5)
Cordoba vs Real Valladolid (6)
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sports vs Basel (6) 1-2
Thun vs Luzern (6) 1-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (6) 2-1
Galatasaray vs Kayserispor (7) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Llanelli vs Bangor City (5) 1-1
Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!