Rostov-na-Donu vs Zenit St.Petersburg
FreeToday’s featured game is the Russian Premier League encounter between battling Rostov-na-Donu and league leaders Zenit St.Petersburg. Hosts Rostov are traditionally a tough side to play at home with their incessant closing down and combative style. However, Zenit are dealing very well with that type of approach this season so I have to give them their chances today.
Rostov haave done well at home this season because they’re not conceding goals. They rarely score them so it’s easy to see why they’ve won four times but lost three times in seven home games. Rostov average conceding less than a goal per home game and yet bizarrely conceded three goals at an impotent Dinamo Moscow last match, which was very unusual indeed. Rostov played exactly the same dogged style of football last season and it prevented them from being relegated. They’re built upon that side and have become a fairly comfortable mid-table side so they will give Zenit a tough game today. However, that defeat against Dinamo will have hurt them and they need to pick themselves up quickly, particularly as Zenit have won three out of their last four visits here. Rostov would take a draw from this game, given chance, so I expect them to line up purely to prevent Zenit’s passing game from having its usual success.
Zenit, however, have other ideas. They’ve won eight consecutive games in all competitions (although this run does stretch over the summer break) but have won four games already this month so momentum is very strong indeed. They appear to have cast off the shackles of their defensive nature to exploit their true potential is they slice their way through defences with ease at the moment, leaking three goals in four games as a result but scoring ten goals along the way. It’s that average of Zenit scoring over two goals per game at the moment that persuaded me to back them today because Rostov will line up defensively to prevent them from playing but a Zenit side taking chances is a very dangerous Zenit side indeed so I fancy them to continue their excellent run against a feisty but ultimately inferior Rostov.
Approach with some caution as Zenit have a trip to Romania in a few days time to take on Unirea Urziceni but I believe Zenit have the strength in-depth to win this. Aside from that, I don’t see why they’d fear the trip to Romania – Unirea aren’t anywhere near as good as they were and I’m sure Zenit will know that too.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
UEFA European U19 Championship preview:
Again, time is not on my side so the odds on these games aren’t available yet. However, I’d take Spain to beat Italy with whatever you can get them at – they should have far too much for the Italians as they’re a much better side. I’d stay away from England versus France barring taking both sides to score. Portugal should overcome Croatia but given their impotent attack and Croatia’s reliable defence, I wouldn’t touch Portugal at shorter odds than evens. Netherlands should be comfortable accumulator fodder but Austria’s unyielding spirit tends to mean that over 2.5 goals looks good as ever.
SV Mattersburg vs SV Ried – home win at 11/10.
Mattersburg are an average side at best but they do take points at home, winning half of their home games last season in the Bundesliga and averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. They have to smell blood for this game as SV Ried’s internal problems now mean that they’ve been left with two ancient strikers – Maryleb and former Bayern Munich hitman Zickler – so the Mattersburg defence will most likely remain untested en mass, which is handy because it’s quite a poor defence! However, Mattersburg know they have a chance to take three points here and I really think they will – they’re good enough at home to do the damage and have beaten Ried here for three out of Ried’s last four visits – and that’s when Ried had a good side!
Verdict: SV Mattersburg to win at 11/10.
Salzburg vs Wacker Innsbruck – lay the hosts in the first-half at evens.
This is a bold but fun call. Salzburg’s poor defeat in the Faroe Islands against HB Torshavn mid-week may have affected them a little but if that didn’t then the tough trip to Cyprus next week to face Omonia Nicosia will affect them. They’re going to rest players and as I’ve already pointed out this season, Salzburg are without Janko now so are having real problems scoring goals. Admittedly, they’re hosting a side that has just gained promotion to the division so the odds are about fair but I’m going to milk this lack-of-Janko route until it bears no more success, which should be some time as Salzburg are going to struggle to replace him. I wouldn’t be surprised if they signed Maierhofer from Wolverhampton Wanderers in this window or the next, actually, after they’ve discovered that they need a target man. Either way, they’re in for a rough ride today, largely because their opponents absolutely destroyed giants Rapid Vienna 4-0 in their opening game of the season so not only is motivation high but so is morale. I fancy Wacker to do a lot of damage today so laying a fairly impotent Salzburg in the first-half at evens looks a bargain and laying them overall at 2/1 looks good value, risky though it unquestionably is.,
Verdict: Lay Salzburg for the first half at evens.
Midtylland vs Silkeborg – home win at 7/10.
I like Midtylland an awful lot for this game, probably more than I should given that Silkeborg love to upset the odds. However, there’s no denying that Midtylland are twice the side of Silkeborg and the odds on the home win should be shorter as a result. Silkeborg’s displays last season clearly convinced the bookies that they’re a competent Superligaen side, which they’re not. Silkeborg were crushed 4-1 by Nordsjaelland in their opening game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar scoreline today. Midtylland, despite their fairly inconsistent displays, are a very good side. Their 2-0 win at AC Horsens in their opening game gives them momentum to bring into this game and they’ve beaten Silkeborg at home for two consecutive meetings, scoring three goals per game. In fact, Silkeborg have lost three out of their last four games against Midtylland wherever they’ve played them so the gap in class is visible. I’d never price the home win here at longer than 1/2 but the bookies have done so for some reason so I can only recommend the home win today.
Verdict: Midtylland to win at 7/10.
Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse – home win at 23/20.
This is more of a fun bet than anything so caution must be advised! However, what is undeniable is that Nagoya Grampus are Shimizu S-Pulse’s bogey team. Shimizu have failed to beat Nagoya for five consecutive meetings and have lost their last two J-League trips here. These two sides tend to play out good games of football with plenty of goals and that’s a possibility for today’s game too. However, I’m siding with Nagoya at generous odds because they’ve played well this season, particularly at home, and the visitors not only have a mental block because of their record against Nagoya but have also stumbled since returning from the break. Shimizu are unbeaten on the road this season – can you see that lasting the season? I can’t; they’re not good enough. This game is partially instinct and partially history but I like the home win nonetheless, although caution is recommended, of course!
Verdict: Nagoya Grampus to win at 23/20.
Aalesund vs Valerenga Oslo – away win at 27/20.
I rarely back an away side against Aalesund as it’s such a tough side to play away from home but Valerenga are absolutely unstoppable at the moment. They’re scoring goals for fun (sixteen goals in four games; an average of four goals per game!) and have won four consecutive games. They’ve not won at Aalesunds in three consecutive attempts but they’ve seldom looked as likely to do so as they do today. To boost the bet, Aalesunds promising displays earlier this season are naturally beginning to decline as they’re not good enough to uphold them but as ever, Rekdal’s men are always hard to overcome – he wouldn’t have it any other way. I have to favour the away win at the moment though as Valerenga look capable of beating anyone so the away win it is, although do be careful – there’s a good reason for Aalesund having only lost once at home this season!
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 27/20.
Rubin Kazan vs Dinamo Moscow – home win at 7/10.
I can’t help but feel that the prices for this game are on name alone because on a quality ratio, Rubin would never be longer than 1/2 for this game. Dinamo’s defence is good but their attack is utterly woeful. I was actually stunned that they scored three goals against Rostov last match and I’ll probably end my life if Dinamo even manage to score against what is easily one of the best defences in Eastern Europe, let alone Russia. Rubin are such a tough side to play against that I simply cannot see Dinamo doing anything against them today. For me, the big question is will Rubin score? Well, they’ve not always been at the top of their game of late but the pleasing thing about Rubin is that they’re clinical enough to take their chances even when they’re not playing well, hence back-to-back titles for the unfavourable Kazan side. They won at Spartak Moscow last match with clinical finishing and resolute defending and I expect more of the same today. Interestingly, Rubin have won all six of their last six meetings with Dinamo Moscow at home and away, including three wins at home, so why the hosts are available at 7/10 I’ll never know!
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at 7/10.
MSK Zilina vs Slovan Bratislava – home win at 6/5.
These two are big rivals and it’s the start of the season but you have to favour MSK Zilina here. They’ve already played two competitive games, the most recent of which resulted in a 3-0 win at home to Maltese outfit Birkirkara mid-week, which sees today’s hosts qualify for the next round of the UEFA Champions League. They therefore bring some momentum into this game against their rivals and are also boosted by the knowledge that Slovan Bratislava have a real striker crisis at the moment with allegedly just one striker fit. Slovan can ride that against the likes of Kosice but not against Zilina, surely? Zilina won this fixture last season and they’ve got an even better chance of winning it now than they did last season, in my opinion, particularly with Slovan having just brought in a new manager for the start of the season. Rivalries are always worthy of being cautious of but there should be value in the home win today.
Verdict: MSK Zilina to win at 6/5.
Jonkopings Sodra vs Falkenberg – home win at 23/20.
I like this one a lot, largely for reasons unknown! Jonkopings are simply a better side than their league placing suggests and their recent form shows that they’re ready to prove that. They’ve won two out of their last three games against good Superettan sides and won this fixture 4-1 last season so they do know how to beat their tricky opponents. I’m not a big fan of Falkenberg but their football on the road is effective, if nothing else, hence just two defeats in eight away games this season and just six goals leaked along the way. However, the big draw-back for the visitors is that they don’t score often on the road so if they fall behind, they tend to lose as a result. If nothing else, Jonkopings always bring goals to their games, as well as some truly woeful defending on occasions, so we should see goals here. If Jonkopings bring the goals to the game that I expect them to then the home win today is very good value because even a stubborn Falkenbergs side will struggle to contain them. Falkenberg may have kept two consecutive clean sheets ahead of this game but bear in mind that they’ve not scored for three games now. I fancy Jonkopings to win this one and it could be a drubbing if they turn up properly but there should be value in the home win either way.
Verdict: Jonkopings Sodra to win at 23/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Spain U19, Netherlands U19, Sturm Graz, BATE Borisov, Dinamo Zagreb, Hajduk Split, Trans Narva, Nomme Kalju, Skonto Riga, Liepajas Metalurgs, Zalgiris Vilnius, Lugano.
Recommended bets:
Sturm Graz, Midtylland, Nomme Kalju, and Rubin Kazan at 9/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European U19 Championship:
Portugal vs Croatia (6) 1-0
Spain vs Italy (8) 2-0
England vs France (5) 1-1
Netherlands vs Austria (8) over 2.5 goals
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs SV Kapfenberg (8) 2-0
Salzburg vs Wacker Innsbruck (4) 2-2
SV Mattersburg vs SV Ried (5) 1-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dnepr Mogilev vs BATE Borisov (8) 0-2
Brazilian Serie A:
Avai vs Atletico Mineiro (7) over 2.5 goals
Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Goianiense (7) over 2.5 goals
Gremio Prudente vs Vitoria (5) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Millonarios Bogota vs Deportivo Cali (6) 1-0
Envigado vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) 1-2
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Split (6) under 2.5 goals
Varteks Varazdin vs Zadar (5) 1-0
Karlovac vs Inter Zapresic (6) 2-1
Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 (8) 2-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague vs Slovacko (7) 1-0
Slovan Liberec vs Viktoria Plzen (4) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs Silkeborg (8) over 2.5 goals
Esbjerg vs FC Copenhagen (6) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Espoli Cayambe (6) 1-1
Macara Ambato vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 0-0
Estonian Meistrliiga:
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Lootus (6) 2-0
Nomme Kalju vs Flora Paide (9) -1.75 handicap
Trans Narva vs Viljandi Tulevik (8) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs HJK Helsinki (5) 0-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
PoPa Pori vs Viikingit Helsinki (6) over 2.5 goals
PS Kemi Kings vs KPV Kokkola (6) under 2.5 goals
OPS Oulu vs KooTeePee Kotka (7) under 2.5 goals
Japanese J-League:
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 2-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Kashima Antlers (5) 1-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Montedio Yamagata (7) 1-0
Vegalta Sendai vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-1
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Gamba Osaka (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse (5) 1-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Jauniba (8) 2-0
Skonto Riga vs RFS/Olimps Riga (9) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Mazeikiai (8) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Necaxa (5) 1-1
Tigres UANL vs Queretaro (6) 1-1
Pachuca vs America (6) over 2.5 goals
Guadalajara vs Puebla (7) 2-0
San Luis vs Monterrey (5) 2-2
Atlante vs Santos Laguna (5) 0-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Aalesund vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Craiova vs CFR Cluj (5) 0-0
Poli Timisoara vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Rubin Kazan vs Dinamo Moscow (8) under 2.5 goals
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Tom Tomsk (5) 0-0
Rostov-na-Donu vs Zenit St.Petersburg (8) under 2.5 goals
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
MSK Zilina vs Slovan Bratislava (7) 1-0
Zlate Moravce vs Spartak Trnava (5) 1-1
Tatran Presov vs Senica (6) 2-1
Dubnica vs Ruzomberok (5) 0-0
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Nitra (5) over 2.5 goals
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Primorje (6) 2-1
Domzale vs Koper (5) 1-1
Triglav vs Celje (6) 0-0
Rudar Velenje vs Maribor (5) 2-2
Gorica vs Olimpija Ljubljana (5) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby Solvesborg (6) 0-0
Atvidabergs vs GAIS Goteborg (5) 1-1
Malmo vs AIK Solna (6) 1-0
Swedish Superettan:
Vasby United vs Orgryte (4)
Degerfors vs Landskrona BoIS (6)
Jonkopings Sodra vs Falkenberg (6)
Osters vs IFK Norrkoping (6) under 2.5 goals
Brage vs GIF Sundsvall (7)
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs Basel (5) 2-1
Young Boys Bern vs Luzern (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Wil (6) over 2.5 goals
Delemont vs Wohlen (4)
Kriens vs Yverdon Sport (5)
Lausanne Sports vs Winterthur (6)
Lugano vs Chiasso (9) -1.75 handicap
Stade Nyonnais vs Schaffhausen (4) over 2.5 goals
Vaduz vs Servette (6) under 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Tavriya Simferopol vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) 0-0
Arsenal Kiev vs Sevastopol (7) 1-0
Illichivets Mariupol vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!