Alcorcon vs Salamanca
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Apologies for the somewhat brief previews today, guys – I’m very short on time but should be about for most of saturday so drop me an email if you want further elaboration on any of my selections.
Today’s secondary featured game is in the Spanish Segunda Liga and features hosts Alcorcon and Salamanca.
Since the turn of the year, Alcorcon have been fantastic, especially at home. They’ve won four consecutive home games and have actually won four out of their last five games in general. They’re playing attacking football with a lot of spirit and only a strong Granada side was able to overcome them last match to dent their immense form. However, they’re back on familiar turf and are bidding to build on their already impressive record of nine wins in thirteen home games. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and pose a real threat to anyone who visits them s I rate their chances of winning this one tonight.
Visitors Salamanca have well and truly had their bubble burst with unexpected promotion hopes rapidly transforming into fears for relegation. Salamanca are currently in the drop zone, as it happens, and with seven losses from eight games since the turn of the year, Salamanca really are in a bad way. They’re not a goalscoring side, which is the first issue, but the second issue is that their reliable defence has abandoned them, which basically puts Salamanca in freefall. They’ve shipped fifteen goals in eight games and just aren’t playing well enough. Morale is low, their goal threat is minimal, and they’re missing Luis Sito at the back and Yuste from midfield for this game, not to mention attacker Juanjo. Salamanca are not a side with depth so they could and should really struggle here.
If I were in a more impudent and devil-may-care mood then I’d be tempted to take Alcorcon -1.5 here as theyre scoring a lot and Salamanca are conceding a lot. However, the home win is a good value bet alone at 5/6 so I won’t be greedy here and thus my call is the home win at 5/6.
Team news – Salamanca miss Luis Sito, Yuste, and Juanjo.
Verdict: Alcorcon to win at 5/6.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Standard de Liege vs Mechelen – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This bet is all about Defour’s absence, as ever. Standard really miss their playmaker in games like this against sides that are hard to beat and this game should be no exception. Tchite is good enough to score the goals if Witsel provides him with the opportunity but with only Witsel in their team of any real consequence, I really don’t rate Standard’s chances here. In addition to the above, Mechelen have looked very spirited and strong lately, keeping goals conceded to a minimum whilst even scoring goals themselves on a regular basis. The trip to Liege is rarely an easy one and Mechelen should line up defensively here. If they do that, then Liege will find it hard to score goals, especially with Mechelen boasting a full squad today. Therefore, I think under 2.5 goals at evens is a decent shout here, although I’d hate to enter the 1×2 market!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Akademik Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas – away win at 6/4.
Adademik play home games at Slavia Sofia’s ground so there’s no home advantage here. They’re not a good side at all and will be lucky to stay in the A PFG if they continue as they were at the start of the season. They lack a goal threat and have a low level of support so there’s very little favouring the hosts here. Cherno’s away statistics aren’t convincing because they were a defensive side under Balakov, who has moved on over the break. Now that Velkov is at the helm, you have to expect a lot more from Cherno today, especially with the high-profile signing of ex-West Ham United attacker Savio Nsreko, whose pace should be a nightmare to play against in this division. For me, there’s value in the away win at 6/4 for a superior side as long as they take their chances.
Verdict: Chernomorets Burgas to win at 6/4.
Hajduk Split vs Inter Zapresic – under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
Hajduk Split lost Ibricic to Lokomotiv Moscow and Strinic to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk over the break so don’t expect the usual Hajduk to show up today, especially after their abysmal display against cash-strapped Slavia Prague in a friendly recently. Their playmaker’s departure has left them with a big issue, in my view, and Strinic’s departure leaves their defence in question. I cannot say that Hajduk aren’t better than Inter because they absolutely are. However, the odds on Hajduk winning this game are a joke as Inter were very hard to break down before the winter break and little has changed for them since then so I think we’ll see a tight a low-scoring affair here. Inter Zapresic +1.5 at 6/5 appeals to me a lot but it may be a tad bold given that it’s the first Prva Liga game of the year for both sides so I’ll stay with what should hopefully be a safer and thus a better value bet with under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
Valenciennes vs Lorient – home win at 11/10.
I’m a big fan of Lorient at home because their artificial turf does them lots of favours. However, away from home, they tend to be diabolical for the same reason and although they thumped Bordeaux 5-1 last match, I still think they’ll struggle here. Valenciennes are such a tough and gritty side to face, especially away from home, so I envision a long match ahead for Lorient. Lorient are missing most of their defence for this game too, which helps my cause a lot. Valenciennes’ only notable absent is defender Bong but they should have a strong enough side to cover for him, especially given their strong momentum at the moment. For me, there’s value on Valenciennes to win at 11/10 although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Team news – Valenciennes miss Bong, Kadir, Lacourt, Loriot, Mfuyi, Leca, and Pallois whereas Lorient miss Sosa, Ecuele Manga, and Baca.
Verdict: Valenciennes to win at 11/10.
Kaiserslautern vs Hamburger SV – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
This one stems from Hamburg being basically an overrated side. Maybe that’s not fair of me; they have a good side but they rarely show it – perhaps it’s better to phrase it that way. They’ve been highly disappointing all season long due to stupid defensive errors and a lack of consistency, especially in front of goal. They even lost at home to a determined but poor St.Pauli side lately so you can see where I’m coming from. They have strung a few wins together lately but they’re not a particularly good side so how they’re such favourites here I don’t know. Lautern aren’t playing well, admittedly – they just keep losing – but they score goals at home and that’s always a dangerous weapon. Dortmund drew at Lautern last match, let’s not forget, so the hosts can be a very hard side to face. Lautern need the points desperately to stave off the threat of relegation so they’ll work hard here. Defensive ineptitude has hurt both sides so far this season but in terms of potency, I’d say Lautern are much more likely to score here than Hamburg and I don’t see Hamburg scoring enough to win this game, to be frank. For me, Lautern are too long at 2/1 so my call is the home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Team news – Kaiserslautern miss Knaller, Correira, Damjanovic, Lucas, Simunek, Dzaka, Fuchs, Ilicevic, Kirch, Stulin, and Zellner whereas Hamburger SV miss Mickel, Besic, Diekmeier, Sowah, Stepanek, H.Behrens, Castelen, Gross, Choupo-Moting, and Torun.
Verdict: Kaiserslatuern to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Koln vs SC Freiburg – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Two sides playing really well lately and scoring goals for fun? Over 2.5 goals, thanks! Koln’s Polodski is in great form and they’re strong at home. Freiburg aren’t great on the road but they’re a good side. Cisse is in immense form and Freiburg have been deadly in front of goal lately. They played a very entertaining game with Wolfsburg lately and that cleared 2.5 goals and should have had more goals due to some crazy defending from Freiburg toward the end of the game. I’d hate to call a winner here so my call is over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Team news – Koln miss Horn, Schwabke, Basala-Mazana, Brecko, Cullmann, Geromel, Giannoulis, McKenna, Schorch, Vaassen, Buchtmann, Matuschyk, Niedrig, Peszko, Petit, Chihi, and Uth whereas Freiburg miss Pouplin, Krmas, Jager, Olle-Olle, Rosenthal, Schuster, Williams, and Bechmann.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
St.Pauli vs Hannover 96 – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
For me, St.Pauli are one of the weakest sides in the Bundesliga. What they lack in talent they make up for in effort but Hannover 96 are simply a class above them, along with most Bundesliga sides. Hannover do miss important attacker Ya Konan here but against a mediocre St.Pauli side, they really should have enough to take at least a draw from this game. St.Pauli won’t make it easy for them and they have played well lately so this should be a good game, really. However, will Hannover 96 lose here? I’d be surprised to see it with their lethal counter-attacks so backing the away win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 looks an interesting bet today.
Team news – St.Pauli miss Eger, Lechner, Morena, Oczipka, Rothenbach, Thorandt, Herber, Asamoah whereas Hannover 96 miss Miller, Avevor, Burmeister, Hofmann, Andreasen, Ernst, Evseev, Rama, and Ya Konan.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Numancia vs Barcelona II – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
An attacking Numancia side versus a Barcelona II side that only knows how to attack? This game surely has to go over 2.5 goals! Numancia do have some very good players but they tend to lapse between brilliance and mediocrity rather easily, hence most of their games going over 2.5 goals lately either due to terrible defending or incisive attacking. This game means a lot to a good number of Numancia players as they’re ex-Athletic Club de Bilbao players and they loathe Barcelona at the best of times so I think we there’s potential for this game to be quite feisty. However, with both sides attacking fluently at every given opportunity, I have to favour over 2.5 goals in this game tonight.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Atletico Lanus, Austria Vienna, Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester United, Southampton, Chesterfield, Stade Rennais, Panathinaikos, Porto, Barcelona, Granada, Vaduz, Fenerbahce.
Recommended bets:
Alcorcon and Barcelona at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Lanus vs Quilmes (8) 1-0
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) under 2.5 goals
Boca Juniors vs All Boys (6) over 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs SV Mattersburg (6) under 2.5 goals
Wiener Neustadt vs Salzburg (6) 1-1
LASK Linz vs Austria Vienna (8) 0-2
Rapid Vienna vs SV Kapfenberg (7) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Mechelen (5) under 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Akademik Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas (6) 0-1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Rakovski (9) -1.5 handicap
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Cherno More Varna (6) under 2.5 goals
Beroe vs Sliven (8) 1-0
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Santiago Wanderers (6) 2-1
Colo Colo vs Huachipato (6) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
America de Cali vs Envigado (6) 1-0
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Bogota (4) over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas Manizales vs Real Cartagena (6) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Split (7) 1-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Rijeka (6) under 2.5 goals
Istra 1961 vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac (7) 2-1
Hajduk Split vs Inter Zapresic (5) under 2.5 goals
Cibalic Vinkovci vs Zadar (6) 1-0
Karlovac vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 0-2
Cypriot Division 1:
A.E.Paphos vs Doxa (6) over 2.5 goals
AEL Limassol vs Ethnikos Achnas (6) 1-1
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Apollon Limassol (6) 1-2
Ermis vs AEK Larnaca (5) 0-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 1-0
Marila Pribram vs Mlada Boleslav (4) 1-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Hradec Kralove (6) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Imbabura (7) under 2.5 goals
LDU Loja vs Deportivo Quito (4) 1-2
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Blackburn Rovers (6) over 2.5 goals
Everton vs Sunderland (6) 0-0
Newcastle United vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Manchester United (8) 0-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Blackpool (5) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Swansea City vs Leeds United (5) draw no bet
Hull City vs Cardiff City (6)
Preston North End vs Burnley (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Millwall vs Nottingham Forest (7)
Barnsley vs Norwich City (6) both sides to score
Middlesbrough vs Queens Park Rangers (5) under 2.5 goals
Doncaster Rovers vs Watford (4)
Ipswich Town vs Portsmouth (6)
Sheffield United vs Derby County (5)
Leicester City vs Coventry City (7)
Bristol City vs Scunthorpe United (3)
Crystal Palace vs Reading (6) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Tranmere Rovers vs Yeovil Town (6)
Walsall vs Rochdale (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Exeter City vs Hartlepool United (6) over 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Bournemouth (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Huddersfield Town vs Leyton Orient (6) over 2.5 goals
Carlisle United vs Sheffield Wednesday (5)
Southampton vs Swindon Town (8)
Plymouth Argyle vs Colchester United (6)
Brentford vs Bristol Rovers (6)
English League Two:
Aldershot Town vs Port Vale (5)
Southend United vs Northampton Town (6) both sides to score
Oxford United vs Hereford United (5) over 2.5 goals
Accrington Stanley vs Torquay United (5)
Barnet vs Lincoln City (3) draw no bet
Chesterfield vs Morecambe (8)
Bury vs Crewe Alexandra (5) both sides to score
Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham (6)
Stevenage vs Cheltenham Town (4) draw no bet
Burton Albion vs Rotherham United (6)
Bradford City vs Stockport County (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Wycombe Wanderers (5)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
AC Oulu vs KuPS Kuopio (6) over 2.5 goals
Tampere United vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 2-2
Haka Valkeakoski vs TPS Turku (4) 0-1, draw no bet
French Ligue 1:
Arles vs Stade Brestois (7) 0-0
AS Monaco vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (5) 1-1
Stade Rennais vs Racing Club Lens (8) under 2.5 goals
Saint-Etienne vs OGC Nice (7) 2-0
Sochaux vs Montpellier HSC (6) 2-1
Valenciennes vs Lorient (6) 2-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Auxerre (5) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Kaiserslautern vs Hamburger SV (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 (6) under 2.5 goals
Koln vs SC Freiburg (6) over 2.5 goals
St.Pauli vs Hannover 96 (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Schalke 04 vs Nurnberg (4) 1-1
Bayern Munich vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga 2:
Alemannia Aachen vs Hertha BSC Berlin (6) both sides to score
Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn (5)
Greek Super League:
Kerkyra vs Olympiakos Volos (5) 1-1
Iraklis vs Xanthi (6) 0-0
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos (8) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Lombard Papa (5) 1-1
Debreceni VSC vs Paksi SE (7) 2-1
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Szombathelyi Haladas (7) over 2.5 goals
Ujpest vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Juventus vs Bologna (6) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Pescara vs Albinoleffe (5)
Empoli vs Cittadella (4)
Frosinone vs Grosseto (5)
Vicenza vs Reggina (6) under 2.5 goals
Atalanta Bergamo vs Sassuolo (7)
Modena vs Siena (5)
Portosummaga vs Torino (5) over 2.5 goals
Crotone vs Triestina (5)
Novara vs Varese (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Queretaro vs Cruz Azul (6) 0-1
Jaguares vs Guadalajara (5) both sides to score
Tigres UANL vs Puebla (6) under 2.5 goals
Pachuca vs San Luis (6) 1-0
Atlas vs Monterrey (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs Heerenveen (5) 1-1
Heracles Almelo vs Vitsese Arnhem (6) 1-1
Roda JC Kerkrade vs De Graafschap (6) 2-1
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag (6) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia Asuncion (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division
Inti Gas vs Melgar FBC (6) 2-1
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Bytom vs GKS Belchatow (5) 1-0
Ruch Chorzow vs Lechia Gdansk (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Vitoria Setubal (7) 2-0
Olhanense vs Porto (8) under 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs Dinamo Bucharest (5) over 2.5 goals
Poli Timisoara vs Gaz Metan Medias (7) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Hearts (6) both sides to score
Hamilton Academicals vs Dundee United (6) 0-1
Hibernian vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (6) 2-1
Kilmarnock vs St.Mirren (7) 2-0
Serbian Super Liga:
BSK Borca vs Spartak Subotica (6) 1-1
Metalac GM vs OFK Belgrade (5) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dubnica vs Kosice (6) under 2.5 goals
Senica vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Ruzomberok vs Nitra (5) 1-1
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Zlate Moravce (6) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Rudar Velenje vs Maribor (5) 1-1
Nafta Lendava vs Primorje (6) 1-0
Domzale vs Koper (6) 1-1
Gorica vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Real Zaragoza (5) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla CF (6) 1-1
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad (6) 2-1
Real Mallorca vs Barcelona (8) 1-2
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Madrid (6) 0-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Numancia vs Barcelona II (6) over 2.5 goals
Cordoba vs Cartagena (5) under 2.5 goals
Alcorcon vs Salamanca (6)
Villarreal II vs Girona (6)
Granada vs Las Palmas (8)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Ponferradina (7)
Real Valladolid vs Elche (5)
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs Grasshopper Zurich (6) 1-1
FC Zurich vs Bellinzona (7) 2-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Locarno (8)
Chiasso vs Schaffhausen (5) over 2.5 goals
Wohlen vs Winterthur (6) draw no bet
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Genclerbirligi (6) 1-1
Istanbul BB vs Galatasaray (6) 2-1, draw no bet, at least one red card in this game
Gaziantepspor vs Eskisehirspor (4) 1-1
Fenerbahce vs Kasimpasa (9) -1.5 handicap
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Fenix vs Danubio (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Miramar Misiones vs Central Espanol (5) 1-0
Cerro vs Rampla Juniors (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!