Everton vs Norwich City
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Today’s secondary featured game is the English Premier League game between Everton and Norwich City.
Hosts Everton are typically failing to impress on a consistent basis this season due to a lack of depth and a lack of firepower. They’ve just clinched the loan signing of Landon Donovan to help their goalscoring issues but it’s the tip of the iceberg, really. Players are unhappy there and if it wasn’t for David Moyes, I firmly believe that this club would be in a lot more trouble than they currently are. Only West Bromwich Albion and Wigan Athletic have scored less goals in the Premier League than Everton have this season and that has to really concern them. Tim Cahill is always a goal threat and yet hasn’t really been there since he came back from injury. Vellios is a prospect, Saha is unhappy, and new signing McFadden is notorious for his injury problems. Where are their goals coming from? It’s no wonder that Everton have barely managed to win at home this season with the above in mind – they’ve got a great manager but this side simply does not score goals.
Visitors Norwich may be new to the division but they’re polar opposites of Everton. They attack without fear and score lots of goals. Their defence isn’t great but they knew that to begin with – they choose to attack because that’s their strength and who can blame them? Let’s look at this realistically for a moment – the only sides to outscore Norwich in the Premier League so far this season are the current top five, which are Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur respectively. In my view, that’s pretty damn impressive, especially for a newly-promoted side. Credit to Lambert for the terrific job he’s done at Norwich – they’re playing with tremendous confidence and they score in almost every game. Indeed, they’ve only failed to score when playing Manchester United away from home this season and with a bit more composure they absolutely would have scored at Old Trafford in what was a very even game. You know, I’d be concerned about Norwich’s defence much more if they were facing a side that is scoring goals but Everton aren’t so I’m happy with the visitors here.
Norwich could very well spring a surprise and claim a point or three here because they’re scoring and Everton aren’t. Everton arguably boast better players but Norwich are playing with much more determination and vigour and I respect that. If Everton win this game – if – then I expect it to be a tight margin because I expect Norwich to score and I can’t see Everton bagging three goals here. Therefore, for me, the away win with a +1 Asian Handicap being priced at 4/5 really appeals to me today.
Verdict: Norwich City to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Dijon FCO vs Saint-Etienne – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
I can’t help but like this one. Dijon FCO are one of the worst sides in Ligue 1, in my view. They don’t have the experience to do well and they concede goals far too easily. A good run was recently punctured by reigning champions LOSC Lille in a 2-0 defeat and although I don’t expect that to send their morale spiralling downward, I do think that it will bring them down to earth again. Dijon FCO will work hard – that’s one thing that they do have – but they don’t score goals and they don’t keep clean sheets, which are two pretty big damn problems.
Visitors Saint-Etienne are on a good run of form, helpfully. The only side to beat them since the middle of September was bitter rivals Olympique Lyonnais in their derby so it’s fair to respect just how well they’re playing. They’re hard to beat because they are a very dangerous side, especially on the counter-attack. They’ve got absolutely loads of pace in their squad with Gradel, Sinama-Pongolle, Aubameyang, and Nicolita in their ranks, just to name a few. It makes Saint-Etienne a very dangerous side, to be frank. The only sides to stop Saint-Etienne scoring away from home this season have been giants Olympique de Marseille, heavyweights Olympique Lyonnais, and Lorient with their dreaded artificial turf. Everyone else has conceded goals against Saint-Etienne and I will be surprised if they don’t score again today, which will make it six consecutive games where Saint-Etienne have scored.
Worst-case scenario is a draw here, in my view. Football can be unpredictable, of course, but the visitors are better than Saint-Etienne and should score at least once here, which for me, is enough for them to avoid defeat. In my eyes, the away win with draw no bet cover is interesting at 4/5.
Verdict: Saint-Etienne to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Olympique Lyonnais vs Evian Thonon Gaillard – both sides to score at 10/11.
So. Overrated Lyon are hosting a plucky and potent newly-promoted side at Stade Gerland today and I don’t think they’ll find it anywhere near as easy as the bookies seem to think that they will. Lyon have better players than ETG, of course – nobody would dare to say otherwise. However, for me, ETG play better football and display a much better level of cohesion than their hosts and it shows. Say what you will about ETG’s results – this side has scored in all but two Ligue 1 games since September and bearing in mind that those two games were against Olympique de Marseille at the Stade Velodrome and defensive moguls Girondins de Bordeaux, I think that’s pretty damn impressive. Lyon aren’t secure at the back and ETG won’t be daunted here. ETG play football their way and they play it with confidence. Sagbo is a threat for ETG and you’d be a braver man than me to bet against Sidney Govou bagging against his old club. Either way, I can’t help but feel that backing both sides to score at 10/11 is the only way to approach this one.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nurnberg – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Nurnberg’s defence = problems. I don’t care how goal-shy Leverkusen have been this season – they’re more than capable of scoring plenty here. Nurnberg were reasonably good in defence last season with Wolf, Pinola, and Nilsson all being useful members of the Nurnberg backline. Ahead of this season, Wolf departed for Werder Bremen, Nilsson has been out with a long-term injury, and Pinola is struggling to find fitness, even missing out on today’s game. Given that Nurnberg are in a mess defensively right now and that they’re not scoring goals, they’re the perfect opponent to face at home and I expect Bayer Leverkusen to demonstrate that. The continued absence of Barnetta is a headache for Dutt as he’s a very consistent winger. Renato Augusto’s sporadic appearances aren’t helping things, either. However, Ballack and Sam are threats, as is Bender, so Leverkusen shouldn’t be written off in games like these. Kiessling, Schurrle, and Derdiyok all know how to find the net so I can only look at the two squads today and see one winner here – Leverkusen. They’ve had their issues converting chances this season but they’ll have to play especially badly to not at least win this game against a defensively crippled Nurnberg side. For me, the home win with a -1 Asian Handicap is well worth it at 4/5.
Verdict: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse Arnhem – home win at 9/10.
You guys know I love to take Heracles at home due to their strong home displays and artificial turf and this game is no different for me. Vitesse may have some talented players but they’re predominantly kids and it really shows away from home. They’re too defensive on the road, don’t create enough chances, and subsequently don’t score enough goals. This side is good enough to do very well in the Eredivisie but this season is a bit too soon for them, in my view. There are plenty of good attackers in the Heracles side, especially in-form Plet and Sweden U21 star Armenteros. There’s bags of energy in midfield with Quansah and Overtoom and plenty of tenacity, all of which makes Heracles hard to face at home. To win here, you have to play well and score goals, two things that Vitesse simply haven’t done this season. Therefore, the home win at 9/10 appeals to me today.
Verdict: Heracles Almelo win at 9/10.
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Excelsior Rotterdam – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
The only two sides to win more home games than Roda have in the Eredivisie this season are the top two – say no more. They might not be as entertaining as AZ Alkmaar or as potent as PSV Eindhoven but they’re a good side and they have some very experienced players. Malki is having the season of his life alongside ex-PSV attacker Ramzi and Eredivisie poacher Junker and that is a lethal trio. There’s not much depth and probably not as much creativity in this side as there should be but they’re strong at home and it should show today. Any kind of motivation against what is easily the worst side in the division should yield a strong home win. Excelsior cannot play well on natural turf and they even struggle to play well on artificial turf due to a lack of quality, depth, and experience this season. They’ve been laid to waste numerous times this season and if Roda show up here then we should see another hammering today.
Verdict: Roda JC Kerkrade to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Porto vs Maritimo Funchal – away win with +1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Looking at statistics, this is a risky bet. Looking at performances, I can see the value for this one. Porto are not playing well under Vitor Pereira and you have to feel that it’s only a matter of time before he leaves the club. Porto have the firepower to destroy any side in Portugal but they’ve rarely played like that this season with even powerhouse hitman Hulk looking a bit out of sorts. Kleber has potential but I just don’t think he’s ready yet – too wasteful in front of goal. Brilliant midfielders in Rodriguez, Moutinho, Belluschi, and the gradually-adapting Defour but again – they’re not playing well as a unit. For me, Porto are due to slip up and this is the perfect game for it to happen in.
Madeira sides are notoriously hard to beat when they want to be and I’ve seldom seen Maritimo play as well as they are doing right now. Rumours are already rife that their star striker Diawara will be on his way in one of the approaching transfer windows due to his excellent form but it’d be unfair to leave out the rest of the team, who have performed admirably this season. They’ve played really well as a unit and have looked lethal on counter-attacks. They were a shade unlucky to lose against Benfica last match after such a plucky display and a cursive glance at their results this season will show you that no side in this division has had an easy game against Maritimo. I fully expect the visitors to give Porto a good game here and maybe even cause an upset.
Do approach with caution, of course – going against Porto at the Estadio do Dragao is always a bold move. However, they’re not playing well and their visitors are so I think that giving Maritimo a +1.5 goal head start at 6/5 is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Maritimo Funchal to win with a +1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Chelsea, Panathinaikos, AC Milan, Roda JC Kerkrade, Rangers, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Roda JC Kerkrade -1.5, AC Milan, and Rangers at around 8/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Sydney FC (6) 2-1
Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners (5) 1-1
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Heart (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker (7) 2-0
SV Kapfenberg vs Wacker Innsbruck (5) 1-1
SV Mattersburg vs Wiener Neustadt (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sint-Truiden vs Mechelen (5) 1-0
Zulte-Waregem vs Mons (6) 2-1
Lierse SK vs Kortrijk (5) 2-2
Westerlo vs Germinal Beerschot (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Colo Colo vs Cobreloa (7) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Emelec Guayquil (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
English Premier League:
Blackburn Rovers vs West Bromwich Albion (6) 2-1
Everton vs Norwich City (4) 1-1
Fulham vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Newcastle United vs Swansea City (4) 1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City (5) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Chelsea (8) 1-2
English Championship:
West Ham United vs Barnsley (6) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Reading (5)
Peterborough United vs Coventry City (7)
Cardiff City vs Middlesbrough (5)
Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest (4)
Blackpool vs Watford (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley (4)
Hull City vs Millwall (6)
Doncaster Rovers vs Leicester City (5)
Ipswich Town vs Derby County (6)
French Ligue 1:
Stade Brestois vs Auxerre (7) 0-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) 1-0
Dijon FCO vs Saint-Etienne (6) 0-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Lorient (7) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Toulouse (6) 2-1
OGC Nice vs Valenciennes (4) 1-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nurnberg (7) 2-0
Hamburger SV vs Augsburg (7) 2-0
SC Freiburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (7) 1-2
Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC Berlin (4) 1-1
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart (5) 2-2
Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen (4) 1-2
Greek Super League:
Levadiakos vs Ergotelis (4) 0-1
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis (8) 2-1
Xanthi vs Panionios (7) 2-0
Italian Serie A:
Chievo Verona vs Cagliari (5) 1-1
Fiorentina vs Atalanta Bergamo (6) 2-1
AC Milan vs Siena (8) 2-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse Arnhem (7) 1-0
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Excelsior Rotterdam (8) 2-0
NEC Nijmegen vs VVV Venlo (7) 2-0
Groningen vs FC Utrecht (4) 2-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
General Caballero vs Sportivo Luqueno (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente (6) 1-0
Porto vs Maritimo Funchal (5) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs Concordia Chiajna (6) 1-0
Astra Ploiesti vs CFR Cluj (7) 0-2
Targu Mures vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Hibernian (6) 2-1
Hearts vs Dunfermline Athletic (7) 2-1
Kilmarnock vs Dundee United (4) 2-2
Motherwell vs St.Mirren (6) 1-0
Rangers vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Getafe (5) 2-1
Sporting Gijon vs Espanyol (6) 1-0
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Zaragoza (6) 2-1
Sevilla CF vs Real Madrid (7) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Barcelona II (5) both sides to score
Cordoba vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Girona vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6)
Real Murcia vs Alcoyano (7)
Celta de Vigo vs Guadalajara (7)
Numancia vs Hercules Alicante (6)
Deportivo Xerez vs Cartagena (7)
Huesca vs Villarreal II (4)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Gaziantepspor (5) 1-0
Karabukspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (6) 2-1
Eskisehirspor vs Kayserispor (7) 1-1
Bursaspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Newtown vs Airbus UK (5) 2-1
Port Talbot Town vs Bangor City (7) 1-2
Prestatyn Town vs Neath Athletic (6) 1-1
Carmarthen Town vs The New Saints (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!