Getafe vs Real Zaragoza
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Getafe and Real Zaragoza. Getafe have been very strong indeed at home this season and will look to continue that today against a lesser Real Zaragoza side. Visitors Real Zaragoza have played well sporadically this season but have consistently disappointed on the road so should struggle in Madrid today.
Getafe have won seven out of eleven games at home already this season and average scoring nearly two goals per home game whereas they concede less than a goal per home game on average. Getafe haven’t played too well lately with three defeats in their past five games in all competitions but it’s worth noting that all of their defeats came away from home and they’ve beaten Sevilla at home in the Copa del Rey and drawn 2-2 at home to Almeria after a last-gasp equaliser was scored by the visitors. Getafe have already beaten Atletico Madrid and Valencia at home this season and although they’ll have been disappointed to draw at home to Almeria, they’ve still got more than enough to overcome Real Zaragoza today. Getafe lost 2-1 at Valencia last match, which is far from unacceptable, and even managed to score so they’ll take at least a little heart from that. Getafe know that their strength is at home and have scored an average of a goal per game for their last five games including trips to Barcelona and Valencia and a home game with Sevilla so Getafe are at least scoring. Frankly, a solitary goal should be enough for Getafe to win this game against a poor Real Zaragoza so the odds on the home win do look inviting today.
Real Zaragoza have already lost eight out of twelve away games in the Primera Liga this season and are the biggest conceding side in the division on the road too with an average of nearly three goals conceded per away game. They score more than a goal per away game so they’re capable of doing damage themselves but as their play tends to focus on attacking rather than defensive stability they tend to suffer away from home. Unlike fellow relegation battlers Almeria, Real Zaragoza lack the defensive stability to keep sides like Getafe out so they should really struggle here today. Zaragoza have been playing well lately with just two defeats in their past five games. I’ve been more impressed by the fact that they’ve won one and drawn one of their last two away games but I’m prepared to overlook those results for this game as they were against fellow relegation-battlers Tenerife and Real Valladolid respectively – Getafe are a different side entirely! Real Zaragoza showed last match what an organised side can do to them by losing 3-1 at home to Sporting Gijon. They’ve conceded eight goals in their past five games so I really can’t see them keeping a clean sheet here today.
Although I think Zaragoza will push Getafe today, I think the hosts are frankly a different class to Zaragoza. Zaragoza play good football for their league placing but that’s not what keeps sides from relegation; it’s the battling mentality, the spirit, the determination, and defensive tenacity. Zaragoza lack at least three of those things and travelling to a strong Getafe side on their own turf will be difficult without them. Zaragoza concede too many goals for their potency to have any affect on this game, in my opinion, and I fully expect Getafe to bounce back from the draw with Almeria in their last home game by beating Zaragoza in a high-scoring game.
Verdict: Getafe to win at 3/4.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Independiente vs Racing Club Avellaneda – home win at evens.
This Avellaneda derby promises to be one of the more interesting, in my opinion, with Independiente having made a promising start to their campaign and visitors Racing turning up sporadically but having done so emphatically when they have turned up.
Indepenediente have already won their two home games this season whilst averaging scoring three goals per game. Their two wins were epic games against an average Atletico Tucuman and an impressive win against title hopefuls Estudiantes De La Plata. You have to hand to Independiente – despite giving away their lead in both of their home games, Independiete still kept their mentalities strong and bounced back to win each game. Their spirit and potency gives me confidence in the home win tonight but I’m also encouraged by the fact that they do have a good record in this derby. In fact, Independiente haven’t lost to Racing in their last nine meetings at either ground with Independiente winning four out of their last five home games against Racing without conceding a goal in any of their games.
Visitors Racing have already lost their two away games this season against Colon de Santa Fe, which is acceptable, and Gimnasia De La Plata, which isn’t really acceptable. Racing do manage to baffle me frequently, however – what kind of side can lose at home to Arsenal de Sarandi 4-2 but then win against San Lorenzo de Almagro 1-0?! Racing brought in experienced defender Roberto Ayala to improve their defence but instead Racing appear to have capitulated defensively in favour of an attacking style that isn’t benefiting them currently. Racing are a capable side and always have been but they’re a mess tactically at the moment. They’re a potent side on their day but how they expect to get anything from this game with their goalscoring so haphazard and their defence so vulnerable is frankly beyond me.
Independiente have a tradition of winning this derby in recent years and I can’t see them failing to do so tonight.
Verdict: Independiente to win at evens.
Huracan vs Velez Sarsfield – away win at 11/10.
Huracan are one of the Primera Division’s weaker sides but that’s largely due to their lack of threat in attack. I mean, six goals conceded in five games (including three games away from home!) is hardly a bad record at all for a club like Huracan. It’s the fact that they’ve only scored four times that hamstrings them. Huracan are unbeaten at home in their two games this season but they’ve played an out-of-sorts Newell’s Old Boys and a weak Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (whom they failed to register a goal against) so they are struggling in attack. Huracan haven’t scored in their past three games and only tend to score when a side attacks them but aren’t defensively sound enough to be mindful of the counter-attacks which is why they scored twice at Lanus and twice at home to Newell’s. Huracan faced their first composed and solid side this season as they travelled to Estudiantes and lost 2-0, which is where a resilient Huracan draw the line. Huracan managed to hammer Velez last season but had lost two home games prior to that against Velez so it’s easy to see where the consistency lies!
Visitors Velez enter this game on the back of a successful trip to Venezuela as they overcame Deportivo Italia. Atypically I’d be concerned with the altitude difference versus the time they’ve been given to recover for it but the trip was early this week and I expect Velez to be back to normal by the time this game is played. Velez are one of the best sides in this division currently and almost always present an extremely organised and efficient performance, making the chances of Huracan scoring even less likely than normal. Velez currently lead the table with three wins and two draws in five games and have already won once away from home whilst managing to keep two clean sheets on the road. Velez drew 0-0 at San Lorenzo de Almagro, which I can accept, but have demonstrated what they can do against impotent sides like Huracan by beating Arsenal de Sarandi 3-0 away from home so Velez are more than capable of tearing Huracan apart tonight.
There’s a big difference in quality between these two sides and there’s little to convince me that Huracan will take anything from this game. Velez is the kind of side that Huracan struggle more than normal to score against and they’re not scoring at the moment anyway so a superior and in-form Velez Sarsfield should be able to record a 1-0 or 2-0 victory tonight with some ease.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 11/10.
Turnhout vs Dender – away win at 6/5.
Turnhout are on a dismal run of form with three consecutive defeats and no wins in their past four games. This largely stems from the fact that they’ve only scored once during those four games and naturally tend to struggle as a result. Turnhout lost their last home game against Eupen which means they’ve now lost five out of ten home games already this season. Only Boussu Dour Borinage and Liege have scored less goals at home than Turnhout, which has proven to be very damaging as Turnhout have actually conceded less goals at home than the vast majority of the Tweede Klasse. However, a side that isn’t scoring goals isn’t going to win games and that’s the position that Turnhout currently find themselves in.
Visitors Dender are launching a somewhat late attempt to regain Eerste Klasse status by going unbeaten in their past five games, winning four times and drawing once. Dender have won their last three away games consecutively against Lierse SK, Beveren and Antwerp – three very impressive away wins in my book. Dender are finally showing the pedigree that got them into the Eerste Klasse in the first place and it’d take a braver man than me to go against them in this kind of form. Dender have now notched up twelve goals in their last five games, which is an average of over two goals scored per game, so their potency is superb at the moment.
Ultimately, Dender have always been a class side in this division – they simply hadn’t shown it for the majority of the season so far. However, they’re absolutely on fire at the moment and they’re winning away consistently and efficiently so it’s hard to overlook the good odds on them winning at goal-shy Turnhout.
Verdict: Dender to win at 6/5.
Tournai vs OH Leuven – home win at 11/10.
Tournai have been outstanding lately with no defeats in their past five games, winning their last four consecutively. Their two most recent wins were the most impressive with Eupen at home and Mons away being their clamied scalps – two sides I consider to be some distance better than Tournai! Tournai have scored ten times during their past five games, an average of two goals per game so that’s the predominant reasoning behind their impressive form. Tournai have only lost twice at home this season which shows that they’re strong there – it’s just their tally of four wins in twelve games that shows that they’ve not been prolific enough this season. However, that appears to be quashed now with their superb momentum so I give them every chance of extending their run tonight.
Visitors OH Leuven may have only lost five out of eleven away games in the Tweede Klasse this season but it has to concern them that only Tienen have conceded more goals on the road, and that’s only by a solitary goal! Leuven average conceding over two goals per away game so that gives any home side a chance against them. Leuven are without a win in seven games so confidence is ebbing away gradually and they’ve lost three out of their last four so that doesn’t help matters! They’ve lost their last three away games consecutively and have conceded a horrific thirteen goal in those three games, which is an average of over four goals per game without managing to score a single goal. That kind of form is relegation form and Leuven simply can’t hope to take anything from this game whilst playing like this.
Verdict: Tournai to win at 11/10.
Istra 1961 vs Medimurje – lay Istra 1961 at 7/5.
Although I give Istra 1961 a decent chance of winning this game, there has to be some value in laying them today. Istra 1961 have been an average home side this season following promotion. They’ve won three times in eight home games an although they rarely concede at home, they also rarely score at home. Only Karlovac have scored less home goals than Istra 1961 this season and this is going to be a real problem for them as they host a resilint and defensive Medimurje side today. Istra 1961 might just return from their winter break a little rusty and this is the kind of game that Istra 1961 should need momentum to win – something that they don’t currently have.
Medimurje are the worst away side in this division currently. They’ve lost all eight away games so I can understand why the bookies have favoured Istra 1961 so much. However, this run has to end sometime and the quality gap between these two sides is virtually non-existant in my opinion. Medimurje concede too many away goals and score too few away goals but they’re going to enter this game with renewed vigour following the winter break and will set up their team defensively for this game to try and claim some much-needed away points so I’ll give them a good chance of taking something from this.
There’s really very little between these two sides and if anyone can falter against a weak away side then it’s a goal-shy home side. The winter break will have helped Medimurje if only a little so I feel that laying the hosts at such favourable odds could be worthwhile today.
Verdict: Lay Istra 1961 at 7/5.
Stoke City vs Arsenal – lay Arsenal at 11/10.
These odds are unbelievable! Arsenal haven’t won at Stoke in either of their two trips following their promotion from the Championship – once last season and once in the FA Cup a few weeks ago – so why that’d change today I do not know! Stoke play a brand of football that Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger has openly criticised on various occasions because of its strong physical nature but that’s just tough shit – some sides have different advantages to others and a good manager will always approach such fixtures with different tactics to counter their opponents. Not Arsene Wenger though. He’ll come here as usual and ask his side to play their beautiful football and it will most likely fail against because Stoke are strong, resilient, and efficient. You have to beat Stoke at their own game to overcome them as many sides find out on the trip to Stoke each year. Arsenal are still missing many strikers for this game so I genuinely believe it’s going to take something for this game to result in an away win. Stoke have only lost three home games this season and it’s their solid defence that has to take a lot of credit for that. Arsenal have won less than half of their away games in the Premier League this season and I can see that run extending tonight against a very well-organised Stoke City, particularly with their long throws being so dangerous in attack, something Wenger has openly become fearful of by suggesting that throw-ins are replaced by “kick-ins”!
Verdict: Lay Arsenal at 11/10.
Reading vs Sheffield Wednesday – home win at 4/5.
I don’t know what’s happening of late at Reading but they’ve been absolutely inspired somehow and are on fire as a result! They’ve been beaten just once in seven games in all competitions and that was against a difficult Blackpool side. Reading have won four of those (five if you include their Extra Time win at West Bromwich Albion in the FA Cup) with two of those wins being at home. They’re proving to be competent in front of goal and are growing more reliable in defence too. Their mid-week win in the FA Cup at West Brom will have only soared their confidence and momentum further so I can’t fault Reading at the moment. Four wins in their last five leagu games leaves Reading in a great position and I’m happy enough to back them on the back of this run.
Visitors Sheffield Wednesday don’t travel well as it is and this season is no exception. They’ve already lost eight out of fifteen away games in the Championship and concede approximately 1.5 goals per away game on average. Sheffield Wednesday’s problems on the road are largely due to the impotent attack, an attack which has seen them score zero goals in their past two games, losing both at home to Doncaster Rovers and Ipswich Town respectively. This is sure to have dented their morale significantly and the knowledge that they’ve lost their last two away games consecutively won’t help them much either.
Ultimately, Sheff Wed struggle on the road at the best of times and now is no exception. They’re not scoring goals, they’re demoralised, and they’re travelling to a very in-form and confident Reading side so a home win really should be on the cards today.
Verdict: Reading to win at 4/5.
Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest – home win at 8/5.
This should be a superb game! We all know how well Notts Forest have played this season and indeed so have Leicester City although somewhat more sporadically. However, as we enter this game Notts Forest have lost their last four away games consecutively 1-0 each time, which is bizarre but intriguing. Notts Forest have been slowing down of late, which is only to be expected after such a spectacular run, and difficult sides are giving them many problems. Leicester City a few weeks ago wouldn’t have had a chance in my book but they’ve become a force again after a seven-game unbeaten run. They’ve conceded just once at home in their past three games but have scored five times so they’re looking very assured at home. Most sides have real difficulty breaking Leicester down and I don’t see Notts Forest being an exception to that as they’re currently struggling.
This game is a derby of sorts so I expect a lot of tenacity from both sides. Leicester are playing well though, particularly in defence, so I don’t envision Forest scoring. I think Leicester will sneak this and the odds are good enough to back it occurring too. Interestingly, Leicester are 6/1 to win this game 1-0 – give that some thought too!
Verdict: Leicester City to win at 8/5.
Oldham Athletic vs Norwich City – away win at 5/6.
Oldham Athletic are trying very hard but the more I see them the more convinced I am that they’ll be in League Two next season and it’s largely due to their impotent attack. Oldham and Wycombe are the only two sides in this division that don’t manage to average scoring at least a goal per game. It speaks volumes that Oldham are amongst the lower conceding sides in the division at home and yet are battling relegation. Oldham’s paltry twelve goals in fourteen games at home simply isn’t good enough and I suspect it’ll damage them enough to send them to the division below. They’ve lost three out of their last four games and have frequently struggled against the better sides in the division, something which Norwich City are very much part of, so Oldham should struggle tonight.
Norwich have struggled to maintain their excellent form of late as you’d expect but they’re still scoring those goals! Norwich seem to love shitting us all up by trailing most of the game and then winning 2-1 in the dying minutes but a win is a win to me! Norwich have won four out of their last five away games in League One and have won eight out of sixteen on the road in League One this season so have a good chance of making something happen here today. Norwich average scoring nearly two goals per away game and have the ability to keep this going.
Ultimately, Norwich are twice the side that Oldham are and I don’t care how good Oldham are defensively – they will concede in this game and they won’t outscore their opponents, in my opinion, which makes the away win a good bet today!
Verdict: Norwich City to win at 5/6.
Chesterfield vs Aldershot Town – home win at 3/4.
Chesterfield are finally back in business after a six game run of consecutive wins. This is particularly impressive because Chesterfield are generally poor on the road but have won four away games in the six consecutive games that they’ve won, beating Morecambe, Port Vale, Darlington, and Crewe Alexandra respectively. None of those sides are particularly difficult but frankly Chesterfield are bad enough on the road to lose to all of them so I am substantially impressed currently. Chesterfield are the best home side in League Two with twelve wins in sixteen games, averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game. With their untouchable momentum and tremendous home strength it’s hard to see them not winning this one today.
I don’t like going against Aldershot as I have a lot of time for them but they’re weak on the road and have been susceptible in general of late. They’ve already lost eight out of fifteen away games this season and simply don’t score enough on the road. They’re a capable side but three defeats in five games coupled with just one win will take its toll on them, particularly as two of those games were on the road and the other was a 3-2 defeat at home against Dagenham last match despite having led 2-0. Aldershot tend to be a well-organised side but their capitulation last match indicates that confidence is a bit lower than normal and they’re not playing as efficiently so they’ve got a very tough trip to Chesterfield ahead today.
The odds surprise me on this game given how dominant Chesterfield are at home and how well they’re playing but I won’t question it – I prefer to make profit from it!
Verdict: Chesterfield to win at 3/4.
Haka Valkeakoski vs Tampere United – away win at 10/11.
Haka Valkeakoski surely cannot wait for their nightmarish Liiga Cup campaign to end as they’ve been poor throughout. They’ve lost all three Liiga Cup games that they’ve played in and are still yet to register a goal. They’ve lost to newly-promoted AC Oulu, underrated Jaro Pietarsaari, and last season’s relegation battlers JJK Jyvaskyla so Haka really aren’t playing well! I have stated previously that I expected them to struggle this season due to their over-achieving last season but I hadn’t expected them to struggle to such a degree. Any side that aren’t scoring goals won’t win games and Haka certainly aren’t scoring goals and have lost to worst sides than Tampere so could be set to taste defeat yet again.
Visitors Tampere United are not a side you’ll see me back away from home very often but today is one of those times. Tampere have only played one Liiga Cup game and lost 1-0 at VPS Vaasa, which was disappointing as VPS aren’t that good but thus proved my point about Tampere struggling on the road, something that was particularly evident in last season’s Veikkausliiga campaign. However, Tampere United are very much a good side and are arguably amongst the top six sides in the country despite losing some quality since their dominating days a few years back. One thing I remain confident on is that Tampere are better than Haka and what better opportunity to show it than to take down their demoralised hosts today?
Haka don’t score goals and Tampere don’t travel well so it almost goes without saying that we should see a low-scoring game today. However, I think there’s enough quality in the Tampere camp to see them score at least once so the away win has to have some value at least, particularly as Tampere have only lost here once in their last six visits, winning their last trip here last season 3-1 in the Suomen Cup.
Verdict: Tampere United to win at 10/11.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Mariehamn – away win at 2/1.
The odds on the away win here seem awfully long and I’m not sure why. MyPa have long been a capable side but have lessened in quality over the past few years and no longer dominate, particularly at home. MyPa have played two Liiga Cup games already, both difficult trips to HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku respectively and lost both times without scoring a goal. Despite playing tough opponents, MyPa are sure to have taken a knock or two mentally from those results and aren’t a particularly good home side so could be susceptible today.
Mariehamn only won two away games in the Veikkausliiga last season, which may explain the odds, but one of those two games was against MyPa, ironically! MyPa hate playing Mariehamn as they’ve only recorded one win against the islanders in their last eleven attempts at either ground. MyPa have actually lost at home to Mariehamn for three out of their last four seasons and have only scored once during that time so look set to struggle again today. Mariehamn don’t really have the attacking power to consistently trouble MyPa but they are capable of scoring and they’re very capable at defending leads too so I don’t see why the odds are so long for this outcome today. Mariehamn have already played four Liiga Cup games, drawing with Honka Espoo and losing at HJK Helsinki before beating FC Lahti and TPS Turku respectively, giving them some good momentum ahead of this game so they should be able to leave their mark today.
I urge caution with this game despite Mariehamn’s dominant head-to-head record because any result wouldn’t massively surprise me – I just feel that Mariehamn have more in their favour currently. MyPa aren’t what they were and Mariehamn are getting better with each season so I don’t see why Mariehamn can’t narrowly win this game against a goal-shy MyPa Anjalankoski.
Verdict: Mariehamn to win at 2/1.
AC Oulu vs KuPS Kuopio – home win at 4/5.
I don’t know if it’s my fault that AC Oulu are doing so well but ever since I said that I expected them to be relegated from the Veikkausliiga they’ve been immense and beaten every side that they’ve faced, which is a total of three wins from three games! Whereas I still believe AC Oulu aren’t a very good side, who can question their current momentum? They’ve won twice at home already and have scored eight goals in their three games which has assisted them in masking their defensive frailties so I don’t see why they can’t continue their excellent run today.
Visitors KuPS Kuopio remain one of the weaker Finnish sides in the Veikkausliiga and it’s been proven already in the Liiga Cup this season with two defeats from two games, both away from home against VPS Vaasa and Jaro Pietarsaari respectively. I expected KuPS to lose both games but to concede three against goal-shy VPS must have been very disheartening. KuPS are still yet to register a goal and their unconvincing displays leave me feeling confident that they’ll fail to turn up again against a side that they’ll most likely end up fighting against to stay in the Veikkausliiga at the end of the season.
There’s not much between these two sides but momentum strongly favours the home side and so does potency so the odds on the home win look good to me.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 4/5.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs VPS Vaasa – home win at 7/5.
Jaro Pietarsaari have done well after a disappointing opening Liiga Cup game where they lost to newly-promoted AC Oulu. I attribute their defeat to their weakened defence due to injury mostly but they still managed to score two goals so the result was perhaps a tad harsh on them. Since then Jaro have won both home games against Haka Valkeakoski and KuPS Kuopio without conceding a goal so Jaro are rapidly getting back to their best. They’re a capable side and I often feel that they’re underrated en mass but I’m happy for that to remain as the bookies keep handing out odds like they have today i.e. very generous ones! Their momentum, potency, and ability to keep clean sheets are good so I’m siding with them today.
VPS Vaasa are an odd side – they’re capable of genius and atrocity in just two simple games. A frankly heroic 3-0 win against KuPS Kuopio was the result that followed their horrendous 3-0 defeat at JJK Jyvaskyla so you have to wonder just where they’re at. They’re not a prolific side but do tend to have a knack of scoring goals when required to. VPS are the kind of side that are better on the road than they are at home and that does concern me a little ahead of this game, particularly as they do have a good record here. However, their crushing defeat at JJK Jyvaskyla makes them look a more human away side and that’s enough for me in this game despite their two home wins in between because VPS simply aren’t that good a side.
There’s a bit of a mis-match of information here because VPS tend to play better on the road but this year are better at home. They’ve scored four goals in their past two games, which again, isn’t like them as they’re not good goalscorers. They don’t tend to concede too many either but conceded three at lowly KuPS Kuopio so I think VPS have a fair distance to go before they’ve established just who they are and what they intend to do this season. However, Jaro are good at home and have been consistently in this competition and I think they’ll do enough to take three points today.
Verdict: Jaro Pietarsaari to win at 7/5.
Xanthi vs PAOK Salonika – away win at 10/11.
Xanthi are only strong at home in the Super League so I’m taking a bit of a gamble here. However, Xanthi are nowhere near as good as they were a few years ago and now look likely to struggle to stay in the Super League this season. They’re the joint lowest scoring side in the division along with bottom club Panthrakikos. Xanthi have won seven out of twelve home games this season but are susceptible to good sides, losing four times along the way. Xanthi simply don’t score enough goals and whereas their defence is quite good they just don’t function well as an overall unit. Xanthi have lost their last three Super League games consecutively and one of those was at home to Larissa, a side I rate but not a side that travels well enough to win here so Xanthi’s morale should be low here, low enough to see them succumb to defeat.
PAOK Salonika are going from strength to strength so I massively respect them for that. They actually look capable of being legitimate title challengers for Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos, two sides that haven’t convinced me massively in recent times so we should see a cracking end to the Super League this season. PAOK have already won five out of twelve away games, losing just twice, and boast the best defence in the league on the road with an average of a goal conceded once per every two away games. PAOK have won four out of their last five away games, remaining unbeaten throughout, and won their last match 2-1 at home to Panathinaikos so momentum and morale is sky-high at the moment for PAOK Salonika. I suppose the question is who can stop them? I don’t think Xanthi can so the value is in the away win tonight!
Verdict: PAOK Salonika to win at 10/11.
Empoli vs Modena – home win at 5/6.
Empoli are still one of the best home sides in Serie B despite their overall form suffering lately and their descent down the table. They’ve won nine out of twelve home games and average scoring over two goals per home game whilst boasting the best defensive record in the league along with Cesena. Empoli’s last home game was a dominating 3-0 win against fellow promotion rivals Ancona and would have given them a good lift. Empoli cannot play on the road unfortunately so their momentum does tend to break up but they’re consistently deadly at home and I can’t see that changing ahead of today’s game.
Modena are a funny side. They’re capable of winning games like this but losing to atrocious sides so it depends which Modena turns up. However, one win in their past five games leaves Modena short on confidence, particularly with their 2-1 defeat at home to Grosseto last match. They’ve failed to score in their last four away games, losing three times and drawing once, so they don’t look likely to cause an upset today. Modena have only scored twice in their past six games overall so frankly they’re going to have an awful lot of problems against a dominant home side like Empoli.
With Modena having already lost six away games out of thirteen this season and having lost three out of their last four away games, it’s beyond hard for me to see anything but a dominant Empoli win on their home ground.
Verdict: Empoli to win at 5/6.
Atlante vs Monterrey – away win at 6/4.
Atlante have had a poor start to their Clausura campaign with four defeats in their seven games played, winning just once. They’re amongst the lowest goalscoring sides in the Primera Division currently and consistently concede more than they score. Atlante have only won once in their four home games this season and although they’ve only been beaten once they’ve remained unconvincing throughout. Atlante have scored just four times in their last five games but have conceded nine goals along the way so they’re already looking dubious as they enter this game. Atlante are a capable side but without the necessary firepower they look nothing but sitting ducks for Monterrey tonight.
Monterrey have only lost once in their past seven games in all competitions and that was on a trip to Brazil in the Copa Libertadores against Sao Paulo. They’ve played two away games in the Primera Division, drawing at Toluca, which is an acceptable result, and winning at Estudiantes Tecos in an epic encounter. Monterrey don’t appear to enjoy the defending aspect of games very much but their potency is one of the best in Mexico currently with sixteen goals scored in seven Primera Division games – an average of over two goals per game. Monterrey have now won four games consecutively, scoring eleven goals along the way so they’re on fire at the moment. They beat Paraguay’s Nacional Asuncion 2-1 at home in the Copa Libertadores mid-week so they’re keeping the fight going on both fronts and thus bring a lot of confidence into this game, giving them a good chance of taking three points tonight.
I suspect the game will be closer than the statistics suggest but I don’t see how an extremely potent Monterrey are going to be countered by a goal-shy Atlante tonight unless the visitors fail to turn up entirely which doesn’t look likely given their recent form. Monterrey really should win this game quite comfortably so the odds look good on the away win tonight.
Verdict: Monterrey to win at 6/4.
GKS Belchatow vs Wisla Krakow – away win at 11/10.
I was going to stay away from this game but something happened during the transfer window that has convinced me otherwise. GKS Belchatow sold their best striker (and arguably best player) Carlo Costly, the Honduran striker to Vaslui in Romania. Without him, Belchatow’s leading goalscorer is defender Popek on three goals. Belchatow are going to sorely miss the Honduran in due course and I’m banking on it taking immediate effect. Any Polish side has to be at their best to take points off Wisla Krakow and without a proper striker the hosts are going to find it hard. They’re also missing Korzym in attack through injury and attacker/midfielder Dziedzic through injury. Ultimately, Belchatow really aren’t shaping up very well for this game and all they have to take into this game is the fact that Wisla haven’t won here in their last four trips.
Wisla Krakow, by contrast, are shaping up well for this game. They’ve got Glowacki, Golos, Sobolewski, and Brozek back for this game so they’re starting to look very strong again. They’re somewhat short of a defined striker, particularl with Malecki out due to suspension and are expected to resolve this with the signing of Macedonian striker Georgi Hristov from Levski Sofia in the near future. Wisla already have an impeccable away record in the Ekstraklasa this season with seven wins from eight games and average scoring over two goals per away game.
Although the winter break is sure to disrupted a few things, you have to feel that Wisla have emerged with some success whereas Belchatow have only made losses. Wisla are deadly on the road and have the best chance they’ve had in some time to break their poor run of results at Belchatow by winning today at good odds.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at 11/10.
Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzow – away win at 6/4.
Hosts Arka Gdynia have only won once in eight home games this season which is largely why they’re labouring near the foot of the table. They’ve only lost three times at home to their credit but that’s largely due to astute defensive displays which mask their attacking impotence. Indeed, only Zaglebie Lubin have scored less home goals than Arka this season so the hosts are really struggling. They’re not even playing their match at home today – they’re using a local rugby pitch with artificial turf and fans will be banned from this (and their following two home games) as punishment from the Polish FA. Arka have brought in a few players during the window – Tshibamba, Mawaye, and Bozok – but not enough to avoid relegation, in my opinion. They’ll miss their fans an awful lot in this game and they’ll miss their home advantage so are likely to struggle here.
Visitors Ruch Chorzow play good football but their results don’t always reflect it. However, I’m happy to see that this season they’re near the top of the table where they deserve to be. They’ve already won four out of nine away games in the Ekstraklasa and would have won more had it not been for a somewhat disappointing goalscoring ratio on the road. However, Ruch have been superb during the winter break’s friendlies and haven’t lost any of their games so they will take at least a little momentum into this game. They’ve lost Struski, Nowacki, and Brzyski during the transfer window but have recalled Goncerz from Katowice and have signed Piech from Widzew Lodz. Ruch have shaped up well for this game and certainly have superior ability over Arka so should make it count today.
Verdict: Ruch Chorzow to win at 6/4.
Borac Cacak vs Partizan Belgrade – lay Partizan Belgrade at 31/20.
This is a risky call but you have to fancy it! Borac Cacak are a good Serbian side, particularly at home where they’ve already won six out of seven Super Liga games this season. They managed to beat Partizan Belgrade here last season and barely concede at home this season with just four goals conceded in seven games so Partizan will have a tough time here. Borac Cacak are one of the top five sides in this division in my opinion and have certainly backed up my theory consistently this season.
Visitors Partizan Belgrade are arguably the best side in Serbia with only bitter rivals Red Star Belgrade running them close. However, the bookies appear to anticipate the gap between the two Belgrade clubs and the remainder of the division as being a lot wider than I do. I feel that bookies overrate Partizan in their games and this is the kind of game that it could be profitable to go against Partizan in. They’ve only won three out of seven away games this season and frankly aren’t scoring enough goals by their own high standards so could be in for a tough time against defensively-strong Borac Cacak today.
Although it’s certainly a risky call, laying Partizan looks to have considerable value in it as Partizan could very well be rusty following a long winter break and the onus is on them to attack – Borac Cacak will take anything that they can get from this game without any expectations!
Verdict: Lay Partizan Belgrade at 31/20.
Levante vs Las Palmas – home win at evens.
Levante have already won eight out of thirteen home games in the Segunda Liga this season so they’re certainly a dangeous home side. They’re unbeaten in eight games and have won their last four home games consecutively so I’m suitable impressed by them currently. I’m even more impressed by the calibre of opponent that they’ve overcome lately with Real Betis Balompie, defensively-astute Celta de Vigo, and in-form Villarreal II being amongst the sides defeated. Levante aren’t scoring many goals but their defence has only conceded once in their past four home games so it’s easy to see why they’re having so much joy at home at the moment. We all know how good Levante can be so it’s good to see them playing to their potential.
Visitors Las Palmas are another capable side but rarely produce the goods outside of their beloved island group. They’ve lost twice in their last three away games, drawing the other game, and have conceded seven goals during those games. Las Palmas are without a win in five games so momentum is a little dry at the moment and things are looking a little glum for them presently. They’ve lost six out of thirteen away games in the Segunda Liga this season and aren’t playing well enough to amend that tonight in my opinion.
Levante’s ruthless efficiency is doing the business at home so I find it hard to envision a sporadic and defensively-inept Las Palmas taking anything but a defeat from this game tonight.
Verdict: Levante to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Slavia Sofia, Levski Sofia, CSKA Sofia, Independiente Medellin, Dinamo Zagreb, Sibenik, Cibalia Vinkovci, Sparta Prague, Chelsea, Millwall, AS Monaco, Olympique Lyonnais, Fehervar, Guadalajara, SL Benfica, Vaslui, Red Star Belgrade, Spartak Trnava, Slovan Bratislava, MSK Zilina, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Young Boys Bern, Bursaspor, Dynamo Kiev.
Recommended bets:
Chelsea, Olympique Lyonnais, Dynamo Kiev, Getafe, and AC Oulu at 7/1.
Real Madrid, Barcelona, Young Boys Bern, Independiente, and PAOK Salonika at 9/1.
Bursaspor, SL Benfica, Vaslui, Wisla Krakow, and Chesterfield at 9/1.
Sparta Prague, Fehervar, AS Monaco, Norwich City, and Empoli at 8/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Independiente vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Huracan vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 0-1
Colon de Santa Fe vs Rosario Central (8) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Wiener Neustadt (7) over 3.5 goals
LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz (5) 2-2
Austria Karnten vs SV Kapfenberg (4) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lokeren vs Westerlo (5) 0-1
Cercle Brugge vs Racing Genk (8) 1-1
Mechelen vs Kortrijk (7) 1-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
KVSK United vs Antwerp (7) under 2.5 goals
Tubize vs Eupen (7)
Ronse vs Mons (5)
Turnhout vs Dender (6)
Tournai vs OH Leuven (7) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Sportist Svoge (9) -1.75 handicap
Minior Pernik vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) 2-1
Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia (8) -1.75 handicap
Sliven vs Montana (6) 1-0
CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (9) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Cortulua vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Quindio (9) 2-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 vs Medimurje (5) 1-1
Dinamo Zagreb vs Croatia Sesvete (9) 3-1
Karlovac vs Osijek (6) 1-1
Sibenik vs Zadar (8) under 2.5 goals
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Inter Zapresic (8) 2-0
Cypriot Division 1:
A.E.Paphos vs Ermis (7) 2-0
Doxa vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (6) 1-1
APEP vs Apollon Limassol (8) 0-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague vs Pribram (8) 2-0
Brno vs Slovan Liberec (5) 0-0
Bohemians Prague vs Slavia Prague (7) 0-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-2
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Manchester City (8) 2-1
Birmingham City vs Wigan Athletic (6) 1-0
Bolton Wanderers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (5) 1-1
Burnley vs Portsmouth (6) 2-1
Stoke City vs Arsenal (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Barnsley vs Blackpool (6)
Coventry City vs Scunthorpe United (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Crystal Palace (6)
Ipswich Town vs Bristol City (6)
Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest (6)
Middlesbrough vs Queens Park Rangers (6)
Preston North End vs Cardiff City (6)
Reading vs Sheffield Wednesday (7)
Sheffield United vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Swansea City vs Peterborough United (7) under 2.5 goals
Watford vs Newcastle United (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Derby County (8) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Leeds United (6)
Brentford vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Exeter City (6)
Bristol Rovers vs Colchester United (5)
Carlisle United vs Gillingham (5)
Leyton Orient vs Swindon Town (6)
Millwall vs Hartlepool United (8)
Oldham Athletic vs Norwich City (8)
Southampton vs Walsall (7)
Stockport County vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Yeovil Town vs Milton Keynes Dons (4)
English League Two:
Barnet vs Bury (6)
Bradford City vs Darlington (6)
Burton Albion vs Rotherham United (7)
Chesterfield vs Aldershot Town (8) over 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Grimsby Town (7)
Lincoln City vs Crewe Alexandra (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Rochdale (6)
Morecambe vs Port Vale (5)
Northampton Town vs Cheltenham Town (7)
Notts County vs Hereford United (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Bournemouth (7)
Torquay United vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Haka Valkeakoski vs Tampere United (6) under 2.5 goals
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Mariehamn (5) 0-1
AC Oulu vs KuPS Kuopio (8) over 2.5 goals
Jaro Pietarsaari vs VPS Vaasa (7) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
AS Monaco vs Boulogne (8) 2-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Grenoble Foot (7) 1-0
Toulouse vs Racing Club Lens (7) under 2.5 goals
Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC Nice (9) -1.75 handicap
Valenciennes vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Lorient vs Sochaux (6) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Stade Rennais (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Hertha HSC Berlin vs Hoffenheim (5) 1-0
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen (6) over 2.5 goals
VFB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt (7) over 2.5 goals
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs SC Freiburg (7) 2-0
VFL Bochum vs Nurnberg (6) 1-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Koln (9) 2-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Koblenz vs Augsburg (6)
Greuther Furth vs Hansa Rostock (7)
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis (5) 2-1
AEK Athens vs Ergotelis (7) under 2.5 goals
Xanthi vs PAOK Salonika (7) 0-1
Greek B Ethniki:
Doxa Dramas vs Kalamata (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Budapest Honved (5) 1-1
Fehervar vs Kecskemeti TE (8) -1.75 handicap
MTK Budapest vs Lombard Papa (7) 2-1
Paksi SE vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) 1-0
Ferencvaros vs Szombathelyi Haladas (7) 2-0
Ujpest vs Gyori ETO FC (7) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs Bari (5) 1-0
Lazio vs Fiorentina (6) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Grosseto vs Crotone (7)
Ancona vs Gallipoli (6)
Salernitana vs Piacenza (5)
Lecce vs Triestina (7)
Cesena vs Ascoli (4)
Sassuolo vs Brescia (5)
Albinoleffe vs Mantova (5)
Empoli vs Modena (7)
Padova vs Torino (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Atlas (5) 0-1
Queretaro vs Santos Laguna (6) 1-2
Guadalajara vs San Luis (8) over 2.5 goals
Tigres UANL vs Morelia (6) 1-1
Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM (6) 1-0
Atlante vs Monterrey (7) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo (6) 1-1
Vitesse Arnhem vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 0-0
Willem II vs VVV Venlo (6) 1-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (8) 1-1
GKS Belchatow vs Wisla Krakow (7) 0-1
Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw (6) 1-1
Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs Maritimo (4) 1-0
Sporting Braga vs Olhanense (6) 2-1
Leixoes Matosinhos vs SL Benfica (8) 0-2
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Gil Vicente vs Desportivo Aves (6)
Desportivo Chaves vs Oliveirense (6)
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Craiova vs Gaz Metan Medias (7) 1-0
Vaslui vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (8) 2-0
International vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Hearts (5) 1-1
Dundee United vs Falkirk (4) 0-0
Hibs vs St.Johnstone (6) 1-0
Motherwell vs Kilmarnock (7) over 2.5 goals
St.Mirren vs Hamilton Academicals (5) 1-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Metalac GM vs Napredak (6) 1-0
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Hajduk Kula (7) 2-0
Javor Ivanjica vs Cukaricki (7) under 2.5 goals
Borac Cacak vs Partizan Belgrade (5) 1-1
Mladi Radnik vs BSK Borca (6) 0-0
Red Star Belgrade vs Jagodina (8) -1.75 handicap
Smederevo vs Rad Belgrade (6) 2-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Kosice vs Artmedia Petrzalka (5) 1-1
Spartak Trnava vs Tatran Presov (8) 2-1
Slovan Bratislava vs DAC Dunajska Streda (8) 2-0
Nitra vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (4) 1-1
MSK Zilina vs Dubnica (9) 2-0
Senica vs Ruzomberok (7) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale vs Maribor (5) 1-1
Drava vs Interblock Ljubljana (6) 0-0
Celje vs Gorica (6) 2-1
Koper vs Rudar Velenje (6) under 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Real Zaragoza (8) 2-0
Tenerife vs Real Madrid (9) 0-3
Barcelona vs Malaga (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Numancia vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6) under 2.5 goals
Huesca vs Real Sociedad (7)
Salamanca vs Real Murcia (6)
Levante vs Las Palmas (7)
Hercules Alicante vs Celta de Vigo (7) under 2.5 goals
Recreativo de Huelva vs Cadiz (7) under 2.5 goals
Albacete vs Villarreal II (4)
Swiss Super League:
Young Boys Bern vs FC Zurich (8) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Sivasspor (8) -1.75 handicap
Kayserispor vs Besiktas JK (5) 1-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zakarpattya Uzhhorod vs Metalurg Donetsk (7) 0-1
Dynamo Kiev vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (9) -1.75 handicap
Karpaty Lviv vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 1-2
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Illichivets Mariupol (5) 1-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Montevideo Wanderers vs Central Espanol (6) 1-1
Cerro Largo vs Atenas (7) 2-0
Defensor Sporting vs Rampla Juniors (5) 1-0
River Plate Montevideo vs Penarol (6) 1-2
Welsh Premier League:
Caersws vs Cefn Druids (6) 1-1
Carmarthen Town vs Airbus (6) 2-1
Haverfordwest County vs Newtown (7) 1-0
Welshpool Town vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!