SCR Altach vs Wacker Innsbruck
FreeToday’s featured game is the Liga 1 game in Austria between SCR Altach and Wacker Innsbruck. Both sides are performing well as we draw near to the end of the campaign and both are in with a very realistic chance of obtaining promotion so we should see a good game between two sides that need three points.
Hosts SCR Altach impressed me with their activities in the transfer window and have looked the business ever since then. They’re unbeaten since returning from the winter break and have won four times along the way. They’ve conceded just twice whilst amassing ten goals so they’re averaging scoring two goals per game, which is generally enough to see a side win the vast majority of their games. SCR Altach have struggled a little on the road with goals but their home form has been undeniably good with nine goals scored over three home games with all ending in wins for SCR Altach. As a result, SCR Altach have now won eight out of twelve home games this season and are looking good ahead of today’s massive match as a result.
Visitors Wacker Innsbruck have already won six out of eleven away games this season whilst averaging scoring two goals per game, which is the highest average in the division. With that in mind, it’s fair to say that SCR Altach will have a tough game on their hands tonight. Wacker Innsbruck surprisingly lost their first Liga 1 game back from the winter break at home to Lustenau but have won their three games since then. However, their wins have been unconvincing performance-wise irrespective of the outcome, something that was particularly evident by their narrow, late victory at home to Dorbirn last match. The only decent side Wacker have met during their Liga 1 campaign following the winter break have been an under-achieving Lustenau and they were horribly short in that game so I’m still not fully convinced by them yet.
As I mentioned previously, this should be a very tight game between two of the best sides in the division. However, SCR Altach have been excellent since returning from the winter break, particularly at home, whereas their opponents have been less convincing. This won’t be a walk in the park for the hosts but I feel that odds of 13/10 on the home win have to be worth a shot for an SCR Altach side that I do feel is just better than Wacker Innsbruck as they demonstrated at the start of this season by winning this exact fixture 4-1…
Verdict: SCR Altach to win at 13/10.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
CSKA Moscow vs Internazionale – under 1.5 goals at 13/5, Honda to score anytime at 4/1.
This bet speaks for itself for anyone who watched the first leg and anyone that knows anything about either side. Both sides are very similar in the sense that they like to play with men behind the ball which is why the first leg ended 1-0 with Inter persistently struggling to break through the CSKA ranks. However, they got their required goal and will look to ride this game out in typical Italian style, stealing a goal if possible. The onus is on CSKA to do damage here but I genuinely don’t feel that they’re capable of it. Over the past couple of years, they’re sold/loaned out too many players which leaves CSKA looking decidedly ordinary nowadays. CSKA’s biggest flaw is goalscoring, something they simply cannot do against good sides. Young Tomas Necid in attack is good but too inexperienced and too heavily relied upon. Little Brazilian Guilherme is a fantastic player but again is inexperienced and lacking in match practice. Who else to CSKA have? Nobody. I’ve seen laughable reports on Sky Sports referring to winger Milos Krasic as a “striker”, which is bullshit – ignore them! In fact, calling him a “winger” is perhaps a tad unfair as his natural role was always playmaker until CSKA converted him to a winger. CSKA have a good defence and a good midfield but don’t threaten in front of goal! Let’s assess their form of late and see if you’re convinced:
24/02 – CSKA Moscow 1 Sevilla CF 1 – Sevilla CF take the lead and should have won but a wonder 40-yard striker from Mark Gonzalez leaves the scores level.
07/03 – CSKA Moscow 0 Rubin Kazan 1 – CSKA are again ineffectual against a solid defence.
12/03 – CSKA Moscow 1 Amkar Perm 0 – A last-minute deflected goal gives CSKA a narrow win over a well-organised but generally average Amkar Perm.
16/03 – Sevilla CF 1 CSKA Moscow 2 – Sevilla CF had been under-performing (and still are) and gave away the first goal due to hideous defending and the second goal due to horrendous goalkeeping where Palop fumbled a free-kick aimed straight at him into the roof of his goal.
21/03 – CSKA Moscow 0 Dinamo Moscow 0 – CSKA again draw blanks against a solid defence.
26/03 – Anzhi Makhachkala 1 CSKA Moscow 2 – Newly-promoted Anzhi were found wanting defensively with CSKA securing a narrow win.
31/03 – Internazionale 1 CSKA Moscow 0 – Inter outclass CSKA for the whole game but fail to turn their possession into good chances more often than not thus the low-scoring result.
Are we seeing a pattern here? CSKA Moscow are either very lucky or don’t score against solid defences and that’s one thing that Inter, like most Italian sides, have. Mourinho will not care about winning this game, only progressing, and he’s seen how easily his side can contain CSKA already. The pitch at Luzhniki is artificial so may cause a slight issue – the ball bounces way too high on this turf, for example – but CSKA as a unit shouldn’t pose a problem and I honestly don’t envision them scoring today. I think Inter could sneak a goal but ultimately a 0-0 looks favourable here and under 1.5 goals looks very likely indeed for two defensively-minded sides in difficult conditions.
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 13/5.
Barcelona vs Arsenal – under 2.5 goals at 6/4.
Now this bet may cause a stir! Two free-flowing attacking sides locking horns at Nou Camp, the home of beautiful football, with a place in the UEFA Champions League Semi-Finals at stake going under 2.5 goals? You’re a nutcase!
However, hear me out here. The first leg in England saw Barcelona dominate Arsenal for sixty minutes before Arsenal’s late resurgance coupled with incompetence from the referee gave Arsenal an unjust lifeline. However, Barcelona, for all their possession, didn’t threaten as much in front of goal as they should be. Almunia had a good game, fair enough, but Barcelona’s two goals came from the atypical long ball, something that is virtually an offensive term in Spanish football. Arsenal can’t defend, we know that, but Barcelona’s lack of clinical finishing surprised me, all things considered. It may have slipped by unnoticed en mass but Barcelona haven’t been as potent this season as they were last season so do bear that in mind.
Both sides had tough games against battling sides at weekend. Barcelona overcame Athletic Club de Bilbao 4-1 although the scoreline did flatter tham and Arsenal needed a late goal to see of a steely Wolves side. Both sides will be at least partially tired from such exhausting games and that could show tonight. There’s a lot of players not playing in this game for both sides – Gallas, Song, Arshavin, Van Perie, Fabregas, Puyol, Pique, Ibrahimovic etc. etc. and I just feel that there will be a strong anti-climax for this over-hyped game between two stretched and tired sides. Arsenal were lucky to score two against Barcelona in the first leg with Valdes allowing the first in and the second being a penalty that should never have been and Barcelona wasted a lot of chances too so I expect a low-scoring game here tonight as Barcelona go through if they don’t lose (excluding the high-scoring draws) and Arsenal need to win but are finding goals hard to come by.
Although this could easily end 6-4 tonight, I simply don’t see it happening. I think there’ll be a massive anti-climax and both sides will fail to break through each other. Both sides are fielding a lone striker not good enough for that role for different reasons, which immediately must be of some concern to both sides, and both sides are missing a lot of players. I can see a “scrappy” game (or as “scrappy” as a game between these two sides can actually be) and a low scoreline so the odds on under 2.5 goals at 6/4 look rather generous despite both sides’ obvious talents.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/4.
Universitario Lima vs Blooming Santa Cruz – Universitario Lima to win with -1.75 handicap at 3/4.
This one speaks for itself, really. Universitario were beyond unfortunate to not beat the handicap in Bolivia for the first meeting of these two sides but I don’t expect a repeat display here. First of all, I don’t expect Blooming to score – partially because they’re a poor side and partially because Universitario are strong defensively. Universitaro haven’t conceded in their two home games in the Copa Libertadores this season so they’re strong at home. Although not traditionally a big goalcoring side, Universitario are more than capable of scoring two tonight at home without conceding against a very much inferior Blooming Santa Cruz side, particularly with Blooming having already conceded five on the road in the Copa Libertadores this season without scoring once. A win tonight guarantees Universitario a place in the next round and I think they’ll easily break the -1.75 handicap although I’d be cautious about backing them on bigger handicaps as they don’t score many. The odds aren’t too great but they’re good value for what should almost certainly happen. This should also be a good in-play game if you happen to be around as Blooming should fight for at least a little while before eventually succumbing!
Verdict: Universitario Lima to beat the -1.75 handicap at 3/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Emelec Guayaquil, Huddersfield Town, Elfsborg Boras, Malmo, IFK Goteborg.
Recommended bets:
Huddersfield Town, Malmo, and SCR Altach at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
CSKA Moscow vs Internazionale (7) 0-0
Barcelona vs Arsenal (6) under 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Deportivo Italia vs Colo Colo (6) 0-0
Universitario Lima vs Blooming Santa Cruz (9) -1.75 handicap
Baltic League:
Flora Tallinn vs Ekranas Panevezys (6) 1-2
Vetra Vilnius vs FK Ventspils (5) 1-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman (6) 1-0
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Huracan (4) 1-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Lustenau vs Dornbirn (5)
First Vienna vs Austria Lustenau (6) over 2.5 goals
Hartberg vs St.Polten (5)
Salzburg II vs Austria Vienna II (6)
Gratkorn vs Admira Wacker (7)
SCR Altach vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Independiente (8) 2-1
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Oldham Athletic (8) over 2.5 goals
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
IF Fuglafjordur vs EB/Streymur (6) 1-2
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Brasov vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs BK Hacken Goteborg (8) 2-1
Atvidabergs vs Kalmar (6) 0-1
Malmo vs Halmstad (8) 2-1
Brommapojkarna vs GAIS Goteborg (4) 0-1
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!