Shakhtar Donetsk vs AS Roma
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Ukraine between Shakhtar Donetsk and AS Roma. Hosts Shakhtar Donetsk sprung a bit of a surprise by winning in Rome in the first leg of this tie and are thus in pole position to progress here. Roma’s need to attack makes the likelihood of this game being entertaining rather high indeed so we should see a good game here.
However, I’m going to be siding with the hosts here, despite them lacking a necessity to win this game. Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten at the Donbass Arena in every competition since its opening and that gives the hosts a great mental edge to take into each game. They’ve overcame both Arsenal and Sporting Braga at home already this season and are looking a very complete unit at the moment with the ability to not only keep the ball well but to convert their chances too. Chygrynskiy brings stability to their defence at the back whereas Jadson, Willian, Douglas Costa, and Alex Teixeira make Shakhtar’s 4-5-1 look very good with the ball and that’s even without their talismanic attacker Fernandinho, who may well make his comeback after lengthy injury tonight. Shakhtar aren’t short of options in attack either with pacey Luiz Adriano, clever Eduardo da Silva, and powerful Marcelo Moreno as their options in attack and in all honesty, I think Shakhtar possess a better team than Roma do at the moment. Roma may have some very talented individuals but as a unit and in terms of variety, I rate Shakhtar as a better team and I think we have the perfect stage tonight for that to be proven.
Maybe I’m unfair on Italian football but in European football nowadays, Italian football generally counts for very little, which is a shame as there’s some terrific clubs in Italy with magnificent past records in European competition. However, the playing style that Italian clubs tend to possess nowadays is too slow and predictable and sides like Shakhtar thrive against opponents like that. You only have to look at Roma’s results in the group stages to see how easily unsettled they were by sides that had more energy than they did and sides that closed them down a lot. Imagine what a side can do to them if they close them down quickly and could score goals too and you get the type of result shown in the first leg. Roma will be pleased to be taking their talismanic leader Totti on this trip as he was supposedly a doubt for this game and they’ll need his experience in this game. In order for Roma to get anything from this game whatsoever, they’re going to have to play very well in midfield as that’s where Shakhtar win their games but can they do it here? I just don’t know. They’ve got the personnel with De Rossi protecting the defence but there’s so many loose cannons in their team that can easily be sent off at any time that I think they’re going to suffer here.
Roma’s problem is that they’re too weak defensively and that they don’t score enough goals, two issues highlighted immensely in the first leg. Unfortunately for the Italian visitors, they do have to attack Shakhtar here and given the lethal pace of the Shakhtar counter-attacks, I think we’ll see the hosts win the second leg too. Roma have the personnel to score goals here, even against a solid Shakhtar defence, but I still think that they’ll be outscored by their pacey opponents. Roma couldn’t handle Shakhtar’s midfield in Italy and I doubt that they’ll be able to tonight too.
Shakhtar’s biggest problem is breaking defensive sides down but Roma cannot be defensive here so I don’t see it being a problem. This game may have a slow start to it but should have a fast end to it. For me, there’s value in a Shakhtar win at evens as they’re simply quicker and better on the ball, which should count for a lot tonight, especially if Roma do their usual trick of having a man needlessly sent off.
Team news – Shakhtar Donetsk miss Kucher and have doubts over Fernandinho whereas AS Roma have doubts over Totti.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Libertad Asuncion vs Universidad San Martin – both sides to score at 21/20.
Odds of 1/2 on Libertad winning this game are a joke for me. They have no particular advantage over Universidad San Martin other than experience and their Peruvian visitors have pissed all over that issue by somehow winning 0-3 in Colombia against a very good Once Caldas Manizales side so don’t underestimate them here. In fact, I’d not touch the 1×2 market for this game with a bargepole as just about any result here is acceptable to me. However, Libertad do tend to score in their home games due to their extensive experience in the Copa Libertadores and Universidad San Martin’s naievty in freely attacking their opponents may cost them defensively but they do score a lot of goals from it so I expect more of the game in this encounter as Libertad aren’t particularly secure at the back. For me, there’s very little between these two sides but past records and tactical approaches suggest that both sides scoring in this game is good value at 21/20.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
SCR Altach, Southampton.
Recommended bets:
Shakhtar Donetsk and SCR Altach at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Barcelona vs Arsenal (7) over 2.5 goals, -1.5 handicap
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AS Roma (6) 2-1
Copa Libertadores:
Libertad Asuncion vs Universidad San Martin (6) 1-1
Oriente Petrolero vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (4) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Jaguares vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) under 2.5 goals
Penarol vs Liga de Quito (7) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
SCR Altach vs First Vienna (9) -1.5 handicap
English Championship:
Preston North End vs Leeds United (5) over 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough vs Derby County (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Coventry City (6)
Barnsley vs Scunthorpe United (6)
Swansea City vs Watford (6)
Ipswich Town vs Reading (6)
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers (5)
Bristol City vs Portsmouth (5)
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest (5)
Leicester City vs Norwich City (6) over 2.5 goals
Hull City vs Burnley (5)
Crystal Palace vs Cardiff City (6)
English League One:
Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United (5)
Tranmere Rovers vs Bristol Rovers (5)
Exeter City vs Bournemouth (4) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Yeovil Town (8)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Charlton Athletic (6)
Huddersfield Town vs Rochdale (7)
Walsall vs Leyton Orient (5) both sides to score
Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Notts County vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Colchester United (60
Plymouth Argyle vs Swindon Town (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)
English League Two:
Barnet vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Crewe Alexandra (5)
Southend United vs Gillingham (6)
Bradford City vs Rotherham United (5) at least one red card in this game
Burton Albion vs Lincoln City (6)
Shrewsbury Town vs Port Vale (7)
Aldershot Town vs Torquay United (6)
Chesterfield vs Northampton Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Bury vs Morecambe (7)
Accrington Stanley vs Stockport County (6)
Stevenage vs Hereford United (4)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Lombard Papa (5) 1-2
Debreceni VSC vs Paksi SE (4) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Tacuary vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) under 2.5 goals
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Woodlands Wellington (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!