Shkendija ’79 vs HJK Helsinki

13/07/2017

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Today’s free tip is in the UEFA Champions League encounter between Shkendija ’79 and HJK Helsinki in Macedonia.

For some reason, the bookies have got the hosts down as odds-on favourites. I find that interesting. To be honest, I’d have probably put these two on a level playing field as far as favourites goes, particularly for the leg in the Balkans. I rate HJK Helsinki as the better team but Macedonian clubs are not easy to handle on their own patch nowadays, and Shkendija ’79 are a very good example of such. Therefore, actually deciding which team should be favourites is a complex enough task for me so to see the bookies so brazenly favour the hosts surprised me, and I hope to capitalise on what I perceive to be their mistakes here.

Firstly, Shkendija ’79 are a good team. That’s not based on their hammering of a weak Dacia Chisinau from Moldova in the last round, either. It’s based on what they’ve consistently shown in Europe over the past few years, and what they’re likely to continue to show in time to come. They play a more “modern” brand of football in Eastern Europe nowadays because they’re attack-minded and fast. That pace and determination can unsettle teams with weak mentalities rather easily, which is something that the Finns need to guard against.

Shkendija ’79 are not simply hard-workers with no talent, either. They have two players I am a really big fan of, namely Hasani and Abdurahimi. The latter has not fully impressed on his return but he’s a superb dribbler on his day. Hasani is their most talented midfielder; the one who can make something happen from nowhere. With Hasani in the midfield, and clever Ibraimi in the middle to convert the chances, Shkendija ’79 have a very impressive formula, particularly when you consider how much energy Stenio brings to their attack. The sole problem I have with this team is that they’re not able to switch their style. They have to attack teams, and although that worked brilliantly against Dacia Chisinau in the last round, it working against HJK Helsinki is another thing entirely.

You see, HJK Helsinki may not be anywhere close to as entertaining as their hosts but what they bring into this tie are experience and patience. This team knows how to keep the ball well, knows how to frustrate teams, and is usually very strong tactically in general. They’re nothing on the team they were, mind you – they’re simply not good enough at scoring goals nowadays to appease me, particularly not now that Morelos has joined Rangers. Make no mistake, however – this is a confident and composed team that are mid-season at the moment so there’ll be no rust in their legs whatsoever, unlike their hosts.

I don’t like it when HJK Helsinki face bunker teams nowadays because they don’t deal with it very well. They’ve got plenty of pace down the flanks, a good creator in Tanaka, and plenty of power behind him to boot. However, a classy finisher and a natural attacking appetite are things that evade HJK Helsinki right now, hence my concerns. Fortunately, those concerns have no relevance with regard to tonight’s fixture because I do not see Shkendija ’79 trying to play that way because they cannot. They’ve got to try and win this match as beating HJK Helsinki on artificial turf in Finland next week is not an attractive proposition whatsoever, and that necessity should play right into the hands of a decidedly over-cautious HJK Helsinki tonight.

Realistically speaking, I think that HJK Helsinki could and should win this match. I won’t back them to do so, because I am not sure where Morelos’ goals will come from now that he’s gone, and I respect how good the home team are at scoring goals themselves. I won’t go over 2.5 goals, either – HJK Helsinki’s style nowadays tends to prevent that from happening, assuming they control the game, and I think it’s logical to expect that from them. However, I do think there’s value to be found in laying Shkendija ’79 tonight because they shouldn’t be as short as they are to beat a team that can outsmart and outplay them tactically, in my opinion, hence the below tip.

HJK Helsinki to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

No freebies today so good luck if you’re betting!

Thusday’s Thoughts

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.

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Shkendija 79 vs HJK Helsinki
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Enjoy your free betting tips!