Sibir Novosibirsk vs Baltika Kaliningrad
FreeOk, so my tip of the day isn’t quite so valuable in terms of odds today but that’s all part and parcel because the confidence rating of it happening has shot up. The featured game in question is Sibir Novosibirsk against Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Division 1. My call today is for the home win. Why? Well, let’s take a look at the facts. Sibir Novosibirsk are the best home side in the divison. They’ve amassed ten wins from thirteen games and are unbeaten at home. They’ve scored an impressive twenty-three goals at home this season, conceding just two. True, they’ve lost their last two games, but both were away, which is where they’re the weakest. They’ve won their last three home games without conceding a single goal and average scoring three times per game at home. To put it bluntly, Sibir Novosibirsk are the fucking dog’s bollocks at home! Looking at their opponents, Baltika Kaliningrad, one thing that immediately hits me is that they’re one of the lowest goalscorers on the road in the whole division. They average less than a goal per game and although they don’t concede many on the road, they’re facing a dominant goalscoring force today. The visitors have only lost one game in their past five but let’s face it – if you travel to face Sibir Novosibirsk, you lose – that is the law of the jungle! Frankly, with all the above in consideration, 7/10 on a home win looks an absolute steal.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Baltika Kaliningrad – home win at 7/10 – see introduction for full details.
Greece U21 vs England U21 – away win at evens. Despite an unconvincing performance away to Republic of Macedonia U21, England U21 still have the ability to grind out results and score goals where required, which was perfectly exemplified in the afore-mentioned game. There’s a lot of quality and some experience in the England U21 side that Greece U21 just can’t match. The hosts only have two players in their current squad that ply their trade outside Greece and with all due respect to the Greek Super League, it’s just not as good as the English Premier League, which is where all of the England U21 players play. Whereas this is a far from overwhelming statistic, it’s still a relevant one. England U21 will be happy to get their first UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier out of the way with a victory and will use that momentum today in Greece. Lastly, the Greeks are yet to play a competitive game in this particular set of qualifiers and may well feel the rust encroaching as they host a talented England U21 side. Effectively, an away win at evens looks a good bet here.
Belgium U21 vs Slovenia U21 – home win at 10/11. Much like their first team, Belgium U21 don’t fill me with a great deal of confidence. They’ve got good enough players to be considered a real force in U21 football currently but seem to rarely show it with some bizarre fits and starts. However, I do think taking the home win at 10/11 is worth the risk because they are better than Slovenia U21 and did build some momentum by beating lowly Malta U21 away last match. Slovenia U21 had the more arduous task of entertaining one of the best U21 sides in the world, in my opinion – France U21. I don’t think it’s necessary for me to point out that France U21 emerged victorious from this clash and that result may have done some damaged to Slovenia U21 morale. The visitors aren’t exactly free of talent themselves, truth be told, but I don’t think they’ve got enough here to withstand the defeat.
Rosario Central vs River Plate – home win at 13/10. Now this is what I call a risky call!! Despite Rosario Central having made an excellent start to their campaign – two wins from two games – the fact remains that they’re not as good as River Plate. That said, since the financial issues that confronted most (if not all) Argentinian sides at the start of the season, River Plate don’t look the same side. The loss of Falcao over summer has lessened their goalscoring threat considerably and it’s seldom that I’ve seen a River Plate side so devoid of outstanding talent. In my opinion, their one bright spark remaining is Diego Buonanotte, who surely won’t be staying long, given his vast potential. Basically, it seems that River Plate are struggling to adapt currently and I’m contemplating the fact that Rosario Central will use their momentum to overcome giants River Plate today. I like the look of a home win at 13/10 although take at draw no bet if unsure.
Republic of Ireland vs South Africa – home win at 5/6. I’m not the biggest advocate of Republic of Ireland’s relentlessly boring football. In fact, I’d rather cut my own balls off than watch it! However, despite a recent poor run of form, they gained a very credible 2-1 victory away to Cyprus, something I have quite a lot of respect for. They still looked a little lapse defensively but the incisive attacking play looked promising and dangerous. One thing we’ve learned about South Africa lately is that they really struggle to score goals. It was highly evident in the Confederations Cup, which they hosted, and it’s been evident ever since. I can’t fault their work-rate or their tenacity but in the final third they’re pretty damn atrocious. I suspect even a lapse Republic of Ireland would be able to keep a clean sheet in this game and I also suspect they’ll be able to break through an unreliable South Africa defence at least once in this game. In my book, that spells a home win and 5/6 on the home win looks a good bet.
FK Chita vs NoSta Novotroitsk – home win at 11/10. This is a dubious call as both sides are in abysmal form currently and both are tussling to avoid relegation. One thing that does stand out for me is that FK Chita have a better home record than half the division despite their current poor league placing. I base this not on their quality but the ridiculously long journey it takes to get there. Much akin to fellow Russian Division1 sides Luch-Energiya Vladivostok and Energiya Khabarovsk, FK Chita are based a good few timezones east of the majority of their contemporaries in this division, which does help them considerably in the home games but messes them on the road. FK Chita are one of the lowest goalscorers at home in the league, something which does bother me a little, but it doesn’t appear to stop them being able to win boring games at home. If you compare this to a NoSta Novotroitsk side that have lost seven times on the road from twelve games, winning just twice, you have to favour a home win, particularly as the visitors have a weak defence on the road that average conceding two goals per game. All in all, a home win at 11/10 could turn out to be good value.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Andorra U21 vs Russia U21 (10) -1.75 handicap
Greece U21 vs England U21 (7) 0-1
Romania U21 vs Moldova U21 (9) 2-0
Poland U21 vs Finland U21 (7) over 2.5 goals
Belgium U21 vs Slovenia U21 (7) 2-1
Germany U21 vs Czech Republic U21 (8) 2-1
Northern Ireland U21 vs Iceland U21 (6) under 2.5 goals
France U21 vs Ukraine U21 (8) under 2.5 goals
Italy U21 vs Luxembourg U21 (10) -1.75 handicap
Argentinian Primera Division:
Rosario Central vs River Plate (6) 2-1
International Friendly:
Republic of Ireland vs South Africa (7) under 2.5 goals
Norwegian Adeccoligaen:
Honefoss vs Kongsvinger (6) draw no bet, over 2.5 goals
Russian Division 1:
FK Chita vs NoSta Novotroitsk (7)
Energiya Khabarovsk vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (5)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (7)
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Baltika Kaliningrad (8)
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (9)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (6)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Cherno Novorosisk (8) under 2.5 goals
Volga Nyznhyi Novgorod vs FK Krasnodor (8)
Salyut Belgorod vs Metallurg Lipetsk (9)
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands vs Tampines Rovers (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Swedish Superettan:
GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius Uppsala (8) over 2.5 goals
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