Sint-Truiden vs Anderlecht
FreeToday’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse encounter between Sint-Truiden and Anderlecht. The hosts aren’t exactly minnows in Belgian history although their comeback to top flight football in Belgium is only fairly recent. Visitors Anderlecht are the daddies in Belgium nowadays although they’ve got a lot to prove today to affirm that status against a difficult opponent.
Hosts Sint-Truiden established last season that they’re going to be a hell of a side to overcome by being fiercely resilient at home and I expect them to do the same again this year. I can’t genuinely say I have the same level of faith in them this year as I did last year but their ability to cause problems for good sides, particularly at home, is somewhat legendary. They’ve played two home games already this season without conceding a goal, winning both games. Their compact pitch and vociferous fans make this one of the more feared away games in Eerste Klasse football and Anderlecht are no exception to that ruling. Anderlecht have only beaten Sint-Truiden once following the promotion of Sint-Truiden in 2009 despite facing them four times, drawing once and losing once in their two visits here. This is not an easy side to face whatsoever as both newly-promoted Lierse SK and giants Standard de Liege can already vouch for this season. You can see how much Sint-Truiden’s tiny pitch benefits them by their sharp contrast between their home and away form so don’t underestimate that factor here. The pace and strength of Senegalese striker Sidibe provides a very useful weapon for the hosts on the counter-attack and a rather defensively-prone Anderlecht are going to have to be very careful in this game as a result.
Out of all the Belgian sides, I think it’s fair to say that I like Anderlecht the most – I always have done. However, nowdays, they really don’t relish physical confrontations and that’s exactly what they’re going to get here today. They’re a bit weak in defence and although their midfield is quite excellent on its day, they also lack in attack. Lukaku is an outstanding prospect and if they win this game then I have no doubt it’s down to his emerging talent and/or strength but the fact is that he’s the only one who can possibly deal with the combative nature of Sint-Truiden. Moroccan playmaker Boussoufa is immensely talented and should also be involved in any concise attacking from Anderlecht but he isn’t the most physical of players – Anderlecht generally aren’t – and the fact is that without Lukaku, they do lack in games like this and it will hurt them. The lost of Van Damme over the summer hasn’t assisted their defensive ineptitude and they’ve looked weak at the back in most games I’ve seen from them already this season so they really have problems here. Aside from that, do they really want to jeopardise their European chances by possibly obtaining injuries tonght ahead of a tough game at home to Zenit St.Petersburg next week? Not for my money. I can’t see Lukaku playing the full game as a result and thus I don’t think Anderlecht will win. I think this may be one of those occasions where they try to cope without him and it tends to fail. In all honesty, I think Anderlecht would take a draw from this game pre-match so I don’t think we’ll see an over-zealous display from the giants tonight.
Basically, I think we have a game here that both sides are keen not to lose and they’d probably both take a draw beforehand. Sint-Truiden want to put in a good display for their fans and Anderlecht want to avoid injuries and defeat so a draw looks likely here. For me, I think under 2.5 goals is the way forward with this one. Sint-Truiden are solid at the back and I don’t expect Anderlecht to attack with much purpose so I don’t see many goals here tonight.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Vasas Budapest vs Kaposvari Rakoczi – home win at 10/11.
Ever since the Italian consortium took over Vasas Budapest, they’ve looked extremely calm, composed, and collected. They don’t look the hit-and-miss side of last year in financial ruin; they’re back in town and look bloody good for it. Three wins in five games already this season says they’re pushing for a rather optimistic but still possible European place and why not? Most of their rivals for that placing have not properly started their respective campaigns yet so I don’t see why they shouldn’t push for it. Only reigning champions Debreceni VSC have outscored Vasas so far this season and although Vasas’ defence isn’t as good as it needs to be at the moment, they’re still looking very solid and with three wins from three home games already under their belt and an average of nearly three goals scored per game, you have to take them seriously tonight.
Kaposvari aren’t as good as they were a few years ago but they’ve started this Soproni Liga campaign well. They’ve also won three times in five games and have only lost once so they won’t be making life easy for their hosts tonight. However, despite their somewhat contradicting away record, they’re actually poor travellers. They’ve won at Zalaegerszegi TE this season by outscoring a side that cannot defend and they’ve played out a goalless draw at newly-promoted Siofok so I’m really not too impressed thus far. Their momentum makes them worthwhile of your respect but overall quality favours the hosts here and I expect it to show by the final whistle too.
Kaposvari have lost three out of their last four visits to face Vasas and I don’t fancy them today with the hosts looking so dominant at home already this season. I expect quite a lot of goals here but the home win at 10/11 appeals to me although I’d leave it if it drops further because it’s still early season – not the most reliable time of the year!
Verdict: Vasas Budapest to win at 10/11.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven – home win at 11/10.
I appreciate FC Eindhoven have done well so far this year thanks to their unbelievable spirit. However, the fact is that their squad was decimated over the transfer window as they suffered financially and this excellent run of form is masking that fact. The only result they’ve claimed so far this season that has genuinely impressed me was a 0-0 draw at home to recently-relegated RKC Waalwijk on the opening day of their campaign. The other three games are all wins, make no mistake, but they’ve beaten sides I’d have expected them to be able to beat, including an AGOVV Appeldoorn side that was arguably the worst side hit over the summer. This is Eindhoven’s first real test on the road; the first side they’ve played away from home that can outplay them. Eindhoven have always impressed me throughout the years with their insufferable manner of never accepting defeat and scoring goals. They’re not the side that they were last year, however, and their hosts Helmond Sport are close to what they were and thus are promotion contenders. I think Eindhoven are due to have a game that brings them back down to earth and this could very well be tonight. Helmond Sport are no mugs and have already won three out of four games this season, losing only against a good Go Ahead Eagles side. Helmond’s strength is defence rather than goalscoring so I’d rather they didn’t fall behind tonight as they may struggle despite Eindhoven’s defensive ineptitude. However, the odds on a home win for a frankly superior Helmond side are a tad generous so that’s my call tonight.
Verdict: Helmond Sport to win at 11/10.
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs RKC Waalwijk – away win at 13/10.
As I touched upon briefly in the previous preview, AGOVV were crippled over the summer financially and many of their players have moved on. This AGOVV side is virtually unrecognisable from the side they fielded last year so don’t go over-estimating them. I intend to bet against AGOVV a lot this year providing they don’t start surprising me as they did by bizarrely winning at giants Cambuur Leeuwarden lately. Their last game against Eindhoven showed where they’re currently at as they were crushed 3-0. AGOVV have generally looked unconvincing, as you’d expect, and although they’re not suddenly definite relegation candidates, they’re still not what they were and are vulnerable. They’ve lost both home games played already this season and you have to fear for them against superior sides like RKC Waalwijk. RKC have suffered a little with relegation as you’d expect but they’re still going to be amongst the promotion candidates at the end of the season, in my opinion. They’ve not played brilliantly in the Eerste Divisie thus far and some abject defending has cost them valuable points but it’s pleasing to see them scoring goals so it’s only a matter of time before they find their rhythm. They’ve notched up seven goals in their past three consecutive games despite winning just one of those games and although their defence isn’t great, I do fancy them to take all the points home tonight. AGOVV can’t defend for shit and RKC aren’t looking great with it either so expect plenty of goals here but I do expect RKC to outscore them so the away win could and should be a good value bet tonight.
Verdict: RKC Waalwijk to win at 13/10.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow – home win at 13/10.
I like this bet a lot more than I should do, really. Jagiellonia have been absolutely superb so far this year with three wins and one draw from four Ekstraklasa games and that’s despite juggling their European campaign at the same time, which they were a bit inexperienced and unlucky in, truth be told. They’re a very composed and well-organised unit which is why sides struggle against them, especially at Jagiellonia, and I expect more of the same today. They’ve already won two home games this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game and let’s not forget that one of those wins was against reigning champions Lech Poznan in a very convincing 2-0 win. Experienced ex-Wisla Krakow striker Tomasz Frankowski is doing a marvellous job for Jagiellonia and has amusingly been offered a job as Assistant Manager of the Poland national team so we’ll see how that goes. Nonetheless, the veteran target man is instrumental to their attack and three goals in four games indicates just why that is. All in all, Jagiellonia are very much title contenders this year in my eyes and definitely should not be underestimated.
Visitors Wisla Krakow, however, are looking anything but title contenders although they’re almost always there at the end of the Ekstraklasa season. A terrible European campaign and weak start to the season saw Wisla appoint a new manager quickly but there’s still a lot more work to be done. Wisla’s defence looks quite vulnerable with Cikos and Bunoza yet to perform to their potential and Wisla may also be without Zurawski and Piotr Brozek tonight, who both sat out training with injuries. Wisla didn’t impress me much by beating Polonia Bytom last match and will have to perform much better tonight to take something off Jagiellonia, something that very few sides manage to do. There’s no doubt that the likes of Malecki and Pawel Brozek can give Wisla an edge that most sides in the division can’t boast but I’m taking a risk by going against them today as they don’t look their atypical selves and this game should have arrived too early in the season for them to be ready to take on mighty Jagiellonia.
Jagiellonia haven’t beaten Wisla for a long time but I’d argue that they’ve never been better-placed than they are now to do so. Ex-Wisla striker Frankowski will surely want to get one over on his old side and against a fairly poor Wisla defence, I fancy him to have some joy tonight. It’s a risky call but the home win intrigues me at 13/10.
Verdict: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 13/10.
Bursaspor vs Eskisehirspor – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I think this one speaks for itself, really. Bursaspor have the biggest game in the club’s history in a few days time as they host Spanish giants Valencia CF. The players will be looking forward to that game and I think they’ll lose focus tonight as a result. They’ve got to have a mind on that game so may even rest some players for part of the game, or possibly the entirety of it. Bursaspor fans will expect a win but they may encounter more trouble than they’d like tonight with the above in mind. Eskisehirspor haven’t impressed me with their slow start to the Super Lig this season although they’re undoubtedly still very hard to beat. I fear for them this year as experienced striker Mehmet Yilmaz moved on to Gaziantepspor, leaving Sari on his own in attack, which doesn’t really suit Eskisehirspor. Nonetheless, they’re still entact defensively and tend to give Bursaspor a tough game so I expect a closer game tonight than the bookies do. I think Bursaspor should win this but I think under 2.5 goals represents better value in this game tonight despite a history of head-to-heads going against me en mass!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals
Accumulator fodder:
Colon de Santa Fe, WAC/St.Andra, Grodig, Universidad Catolica, Bohemians, Osijek, Shakhtar Donetsk.
Recommended bets:
WAC/St.Andra, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Vasas Budapest at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre vs Gimnasia De La Plata (6) 1-0
Colon de Santa Fe vs All Boys (8) 2-0
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Heart (5) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
First Vienna vs Austria Lustenau (4)
Grodig vs Gratkorn (8)
WAC/St.Andra vs Hartberg (8)
Lustenau vs St.Polten (4) draw no bet
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker (6) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sint-Truiden vs Anderlecht (5) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Zadar (3) 0-1, draw no bet
Karlovac vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac (5) 2-1
NK Zagreb vs Split (7) 2-0
Osijek vs Sibenik (8) 2-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Union Espanola (8) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Cortulua vs Deportes Quindio (6) 1-1
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Huila (6) 2-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec vs Banik Ostrava (6) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
HB Koge vs Vejle (6)
Hjorring vs Viborg (5)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs Tampere United (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Istres vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Stade Lavallois vs Chateauroux (6)
Le Havre vs Dijon FCO (7)
Le Mans vs Boulogne (6)
Metz vs Nantes (5) under 2.5 goals
Nimes vs Angers SCO (5) draw no bet
Sedan-Ardennes vs Clermont Foot (6)
Troyes vs Tours (5) draw no bet
Vannes OC vs Reims (6)
German Bundesliga:
Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 (7) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn vs Union Berlin (5)
Osnabruck vs Erzgebirge Aue (6) over 2.5 goals
Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Vasas Budapest vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (7) 2-1
Gyori ETO FC vs Debreceni VSC (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Irish Premier League:
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Shamrock Rovers (5) 1-1
Bohemians vs UCD (8) 2-0
Bray Wanderers vs Galway United (5) 1-1
Drogheda United vs Dundalk (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Sligo Rovers vs Sporting Fingal (6) 0-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Toluca (6) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RBC Roosendaal vs Zwolle (6)
Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen (4)
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs RKC Waalwijk (6)
Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht (5)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Bytom vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs SL Benfica (5) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs Gloria Bistrita (6) 1-1
Rapid Bucharest vs CFR Cluj (5) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Domzale (5) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Salamanca vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Halmstad (6) 2-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Eskisehirspor (7) under 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Volyn Lutsk vs Sevastopol (3) 1-0
Obolon Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) 0-2
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Airbus UK (7) over 2.5 goals
Haverfordwest County vs Llanelli (7) 1-2
Port Talbot Town vs Aberystwyth Town (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!