Skive vs Hobro
FreeAfter a quite poor saturday, I’m hoping that sunday will be far more profitable, starting with today’s featured game in the Danish 1st Division between Skive and Hobro. Skive were everyone’s favourite team towards the end of last season as they annihlated every opponent they faced against all odds and look to have brought that mentality into this season too. Hobro are new to the division and face a baptism of fire against a strong and surprising Skive side today, despite their league placing last season.
Skive were strong at home last season despite not playing well for the majority of the season, winning eight times in fifteen home games. They don’t focus as much on defence as much as they should but they more than compensate for it by scoring a lot of goals. They actually averaged scoring just under two goals per home game last season, a record bettered only by the eventual top three – AC Horsens, Lyngby, and Fredericia respectively – so they know how to find the net. Skive are very much an “all or nothing” type side away from home, managing to not draw a single away game last season either due to reckless defending or clinical finishing and I see little to suggest that they’ve added the necessary maturity to their game for that to have changed. However, Skive’s potency, most importantly, has remained entact. They’ve already won at newly-promoted Bronshoj on the opening day of the season without any great difficulty despite the general difficulty of playing newly-promoted sides at the start of the season. Skive then followed that up with another 2-0 win at amaeturs Viborg Sondermarken in the Landspokal so Skive have really started this season as they ended the last one, impressively enough. They’ve got a good side and plenty of potency so they should cause plenty of problems today.
Hobro got a rude awakening to life in the Danish 1st Division as they were crushed 4-1 at home by giants AB Copenhagen. They now travel to a strong Skive side that score goals for fun and with their defence so easily shattered, they have to be afraid of this trip. Hobro played really well to get into this division but they achieved that feat by outscoring their opponents, not using any kind of tactical approach whatsoever. Truth be told, Hobro conceded more goals last season than a side in their position should have done and whereas that wasn’t a problem last year, it will be this year. There are some very good sides in this division and Hobro are now facing their second good side in two games and should end up on the receiving end of yet another “welcome to the 1st Division” from rampant Skive.
Odds of 3/5 aren’t generally what I consider value but in this division, you tend to find strong favourites at 1/3 or 1/4 to win games, which is fair enough – there are some real gulfs in this division. However, I feel Skive are more than worthy of being 2/5 here because of their relentless potency so I do feel there’s value on the home win today.
Verdict: Skive to win at 3/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
All Boys vs Velez Sarsfield – away win at 10/11.
Velez Sarsfield were dealt a tough hand by hosting Independiente in their opening Apertura game but dealt with it incredibly well, dominating throughout and were unlucky not to win by more than the 1-0 scoreline. Velez demonstrated in this game just why they’re considered to be amongst the favourites to win the Apertura this season and I have to say that I share their opinion if that level of performance is maintained. Their opponents today are All Boys, who are a newly-promoted outfit. All Boys lost a poor game of football 1-0 against under-achieving Racing Club Avellaneda but did make a good impression with dogged tenacity. However, the focal point surely has to be the fact that they played quite well and still left the game with nothing. They’re now facing a better side than Racing that has better goalscorers so you have to fear for All Boys today, with or without spirit. Velez were poor on the road in last season’s Clausura but to be honest, they were poor throughout that Clausura, hence their eventual placing. They’re still a very good side, however, and boast one of the best defences in Argentina so I think they should be able to hold off an inferior All Boys side and turn their chances into goals tonight so the away win at 10/11 does look decent value tonnight.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 10/11.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Neman Grodno – home win at 7/10.
Naftan Novopolotsk lost their last game 3-1 at FC Minsk but to be honest, I expected that to happen and I’m confident they did too. Naftan aren’t an away team by any stretch of the imagination – they much prefer their home games, and they’ve looked very good indeed at home of late. They’ve ripped apart Dinamo Brest and Belshina at home lately because of how strong they are at the Altant Stadium in Novopolotsk and they’re finally showing it again despite a poor first half of the season. I still can’t get my head around why such a good side are ninth in the table but hopefully they’ll push themselves away from ninth by furthering their run of good form lately and winning today. It’s the perfect game for Naftan, really – they’re on familiar turf and they’ve beaten Neman Grodno for six consecutive seasons at home, not even conceding in their last five meetings against Neman in Novopolotsk! It’s safe to say that Neman don’t enjoy their trips here very much and with five defeats in ten away games already this season, it’s hard to envision Neman upsetting the odds today. They were on the receiving end of a 4-1 drubbing by Shakhtyor Soligorsk in their last away game and lost 1-0 at home to a very good FC Minsk the game before. The only side Neman have taken points off away from home in their last four games is newly-promoted Belshina in an uncharacteristic 2-0 win. They’d previously lost 1-0 at Dinamo Minsk and 4-0 at Dinamo Brest. Neman basically don’t travel well and have lost their strength of being strong defensively. Naftan are in better form at the moment and are bloody good at home so long as they take the chances that will inevitably come their way. Either way, I think the bookies have let the Vysshaya Liga table affect their judgement a little too much here because Naftan should be 1/2 here, not 7/10, so there should be some value on the home win today.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 7/10.
Gremio Prudente vs Vasco da Gama – away win at 19/10
I’ve probably got far too much faith in this bet to make sense but the odds are too good to be ignored here. Gremio Prudente have adapted to Serie A life well by making their home games count, hence just one defeat in six home games. They’re extremely solid defensively and aren’t shy in front of goal so they’re usually a force to be reckoned with at home. The entire reasoning behind their home form, however, is tenacity. They’re a side largely devoid of stars but high on spirit. Well, they’re hosting a side today that can match them on both fronts and also boast a better side – Vasco da Gama. Vasco have looked terrific since Gusmao took over and are now unbeaten in an impressive six games, including away trips to Gremio and Flamengo. They’ve looked very strong at the back and very clinical in front of goal so I currently rate this Vasco side very highly indeed. Vasco don’t score many goals, particularly away from home, but Gusmao has given them a new lease of life and they’re thriving under it so I think Vasco have a very good chance of upsetting the odds here.
Ultimately, I think that the bookies have been a little unfair on the in-form visitors. Vasco are a better side than Gremio Prudente and they’re playing very well at the moment. Bear in mind that Prudente haven’t actually scored for three consecutive games and despite being strong at the back, a single goal is going to do them damage unless they start scoring. Although it’s unquestionably a risky call, odds of 19/10 on a Vasco win tonight are too generous in my eyes and should be given careful thought with the above information in mind.
Verdict: Vasco da Gama to win at 19/10.
Fluminense vs Internacional – home win with -1.5 handicap at 33/20.
I don’t think I’ve ever handicapped against Internacional in my life and I’m inclined to doubt I ever will again but these odds represent value today in my eyes. Why? Well, Internacional’s focus is entirely upon their Copa Libertadores Final Second Leg against Mexican side Guadalajara in four days time so they’ll be resting players for this game. They won the first leg 2-1 in Mexico, which naturally puts them in the driving seat, but they know they need to be aware in the return leg as Guadalajara proved how adept they can be away from home by winning at Universidad de Chile last round. The players that do play for Internacional tonight have to be tired after having only just got back from the lengthy trip north to Mexico so our fairly impotent but talented friends from Porto-Alegrense won’t be relishing the trip to in-form Fluminense tonight whatsoever, despite their good result in Mexico.
Fluminense are also going to be eyeing up this game with some interest given the distractions and weariness of their opponents and will no doubt fancy building on their dominant home form in Serie A this season where they’ve won five out of six games, drawing the other. Fluminense have only beaten the -1.5 goal handicap once during that run and that was during their most recent home game against Atletico Paranaense where they won 3-1. However, Fluminense are no stranger to scoring goals against Internacional, drawing 2-2 with them last season, losing 1-2 to them the season before that, beating them 3-0 the season before that, and losing 3-2 the season before that! However, this is the best Fluminense side in some years now and I really fancy them to inflict a heavy amount of damage on Internacional tonight as a result.
I cannot begin to express how risky this call is so do approach with caution! However, Internacional have a thin squad as it is and will unquestionably be resting players for this game and are also tired from their trip to Mexico. Fluminense have a massive spree of momentum behind them and are scoring goals for fun so I really fancy them to win the game by two goals or more at generous odds of 33/20.
Verdict: Fluminense to win with -1.5 goal handicap at 33/20.
Vitoria vs Santos – home win at 33/20.
These two sides must be pretty damn sick of playing each other by now as it’s their third meeting in two weeks. The two met in the final of the Copa do Brasil and Santos won it 3-2 on aggregate, winning the home leg and losing the away leg. Vitoria will no doubt be intent on seeking revenge for that defeat tonight and they’re well-equipped to do so as they’re playing at the feared Estadio Barradao, where they’re always a strong side to play against. I don’t know if it’s the intimidating Bahia area or just the stadium itself but Vitoria are always strong here and their home record this season shows that with three wins, two draws, and just one defeat in six games despite lingering just outside of the drop zone. Vitoria’s defence leaves a lot to be desired but the fact that only Avai, Botafogo, and Corinthians have scored more than they have at home should tell the full story here. To win against Vitoria, you have to outscore them, and not many sides manage to do that. They’ve beaten Santos here three times consecutively now and enter this game on the back of a 2-0 win against Palmeiras so confidence is high and Vitoria have the potency to do damage tonight as a result.
Santos are not as good a side as the table makes out that they are, in my humble opinion. They’ve got some good players and when youngster Neymar is on the park, he brings great morale and enthusiasm to the squad as well as his own scintillating potential, which is why Santos are doing quite well. Aside from that, they’re really not a particularly good side. Look what happened to them mid-week at home to Avai in the Copa Sudamericana! They started without little Neymar due to his participation in USA two days earlier in a friendly for Brazil and were losing 1-0 at half-time so on he came and still he couldn’t lift Santos from their dismal display with Santos losing 3-1. I’m not sure if Santos will prioritise the return leg against Avai next week or this game to boost their domestic campaign but one thing that is certain is that this is Neymar’s third game in four days and he’s the lifeblood of this team. At seventeen years of age, he’s going to be tired and I’ll be very surprised if he plays the full ninety against Vitoria tonight. Therefore, we have an under-strength Santos side facing a very strong Vitoria side, which creates a problem as it’s in Bahia. Santos have done ok on the road this season but purely because of their goals scored as their defensive record on the road is so bad that only Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro have conceded more than they have! Take Santos’ goals away from home than they have problems and that’s what I expect to happen tonight – well, to a certain degree – Vitoria’s defence isn’t particularly good!
This game has over 2.5 goals written all over it but I can’t believe Vitoria are priced so generously to win at home against a side that they often beat at home. Although this isn’t a definite home win by any stretch of the imagination, you still have to feel that Vitoria are the value bet tonight.
Verdict: Vitoria to win at 33/20.
Gremio vs Goias – lay Gremo at 11/10.
Gremio are 1/2 to win this game; how? They’ve lost all potency and are one of the lowest-scoring sides in the division as a result. They’ve won just a third of their home games in Serie A this season and are without a win in nine consecutive games in all competitions now. They lost at home to tonight’s opponents Goias mid-week in the Copa Sudamericana without scoring so why not again today? They’ve not won in four home games and games in Porto-Alegrense are traditionally the strength of Gremio so it’s easy to see why they’re in the relegation zone at the moment, unthinkable as it may have been pre-season. Goias aren’t good away from home as four defeats in seven away games indicates but Gremio just aren’t scoring goals so they’re not winning games, simply. Goias exploited that mid-week at Gremio and although I doubt they’ll beat Gremio again, I don’t see how they’ll lose the game and odds of 11/10 on laying Gremio are far too generous tonight with the above in mind.
Verdict: Lay Gremio at 11/10.
Chernomorets Burgas vs Levski Sofia – away win at 11/10.
Levski haven’t won at Chernomorets Burgas for three consecutive visits now but I feel a change in the wind for this tie. Levski are playing better than they have in years thanks to the addition of new French striker Dembele, who has blended into the squad seamlessly as the lone frontman and showed his qualities as Levski demolised local rivals Lokomotiv earlier this week 3-1. Levski have now beaten CSKA Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia at the start of their A PFG campaign and their European campaign is going well so morale is very high in the Levski camp currently with momentum strong too. Chernomorets are a good side that rarely concede but they’ve not got going yet this season. They won at CSKA Sofia in their last game but CSKA are having a hellish time at the moment so they’re currently fodder for anyone. I pay more attention to Chernomorets’ inability to overcome newly-promoted Akademik Sofia at home in their opening game, drawing 0-0. They control possession well enough but their biggest handicap in their assault on the A PFG is scoring goals and that’s going to come to light against Levski today, in my opinion. Chernomorets may improve their goalscoring as the season unwinds but at the moment, they don’t concern me. Levski have impressed me massively so far and with their rivals stuttering all around them, they have the additional impetus to win this game and put themselves clear at the top of the table so I think the odds on the away win are good enough to take a chance on today.
Verdict: Levski Sofia to win at 11/10.
Nublense vs Huachipato – away win at 3/2.
Ah, an away win in Chile – I feel like I’ve walked into a jungle covered in meat and blood and expect to walk out of the other side of the jungle unscathed!
Seriously though, there could and should be value here. Nublense are nothing compared to what they used to be a few years ago and are frankly awful at home. They’ve lost four out of nine at home this season because they average scoring just once per home game whereas they average conceding nearly two goals per home game, hence their predicament. They’ve lost three consecutive games whilst conceding ten goals with two of those games being at home, the most recent of which was a 5-1 drubbing inflicted by in-form Audax Italiano. Nublense’s morale is low and they’re hosting a side that have won here twice in their last three visits so Nublense aren’t in the best of positions currently. Huachipato have won three out of their last four games and won 4-1 at San Luis in their last away game so momentum and morale is strong for the visitors currently. Huachipato have won four out of ten away from home this season, which is a good record in Chile! They also have the additional advantage of being the strongest defensive side away from home in the whole of the Chilean Primera Division so I really quite fancy Huachipato if they take the lead.
Either way, despite the obvious risk factor, odds of 3/2 are a bit too generous on the away win hereso I fancy it tonight.
Verdict: Huachipato to win at 3/2.
Boyaca Chico vs La Equidad Bogota – home win at 21/20.
There’s a good reason that Boyaca Chico have a castle on their emblem; it’s because Chico is a fortress when they’re playing well. They’re such a gritty, hard-working side that never know when they’re beaten. They’ve won both of their home games in their current campaign and momentum favours them as a result, particularly as they’ve not lost either of their two away games along the way. Boyaca have beaten La Equidad at home in their last three attempts consecutively without even conceding a goal so they have the mental edge ahead of this match tonight.
La Equidad had a superb campaign last time out but have started this one inconspicuously, winning their two home games and losing their two away games without scoring a goal – average Colombian form, really. La Equidad still have a good side but they hate their trips to face Boyaca and I think they’ll be caught out again tonight, particularly with their resilient hosts in such unbeatable form.
Chico’s weakness is not scoring enough goals but with La Equidad failing to register a goal here for three consecutive visits, you have to favour the home win tonight for as long as the odds remain above evens.
Verdict: Boyaca Chico to win at 21/20.
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Tolima – home win at 23/20.
These two are amongst the top four sides in Colombia at the present time, in my opinion, so they usually play out good games with plenty of goals. There’s not much between them but Once Caldas are marginally the better side and tend to show it at home. Both sides have started their respective campaigns well but as I mentioned previously – Once Caldas are the better side and with four consecutive home wins against Deportes Tolima in recent years has convinced me that any odds of over evens for the home win tonight are worthy of consideration.
Verdict: Once Caldas Manizales to win at 23/20.
Jabloenc vs Bohemians 1905 – lay Jablonec at 6/5.
I know Jablonec had a good campaign last year; great even. However, they’re still not that good a side, certainly not good enough to earn odds of 4/7 to win this game. They’ve started this campaign exactly as an over-achieving side from last season would – they’ve been caught out too easily in defence and they’re not scoring enough goals. Their European campaign disrupted their domestic campaign a lot and the bottom line is that the only side they’ve beaten so far this season was an out-of-sorts and defensively inept Brno side 1-0. I can’t deny that Jablonec are the better of the two sides today but I can’t accept the odds for them to win this game given how poorly they’ve been playing. The departure of key defender Krejci to Irakils will have hurt them but to this extent? It’s hard to believe. I don’t rate their opponents Bohemians 1905 as a side in general but as a defensive unit they’re hard to break down, especially when they’re at the start of the season or when they’re in-form, both of which favour Bohemians 1905 at the moment. The only side that was able to beat them this season was a strong and potent Viktoria Plzen side despite Bohemians 1905 having already played giants Slavia Prague this season.
Jablonec tend to get the better of Bohemians 1905 and maybe they will today but I don’t see it happening. They’re definitely the better of the two sides, no question, but Bohemians 1905 are so resilient and well-organised that I don’t see a Jablonec side struggling for goals breaking through them today. Either way, the odds of laying the hosts are far too generous – I’d expect odds of this nature if they were facing true giants Sparta Prague, not pretenders Jablonec! – so I think the value is in laying Jablonec today.
Verdict: Lay Jablonec at 6/5.
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovacko – home win with -1.5 handicap at 33/20.
I thought Viktoria Plzen were a one-season wonder after a great campaign last year but they’ve frankly looked even stronger so far in their current campaign. With experienced ex-Sparta Prague playmaker Pavel Horvarth pulling the strings and in-form striker Jan Rezek in their side, they look capable of beating any Gambrinus Liga side at the moment. Unlike fellow surprise package Jablonec, Viktoria Plzen have embraced European football by outplaying Turkish giants Besiktas JK at home but only managing a draw before losing the return leg 3-0 in a bad-tempered affair in Turkey. However, Viktoria Plzen bounced back in style, destroying newly-promoted Hradec Kralove away from home last match without even breaking sweat. That’s what I like about this Viktoria side – there’s great belief in their ability to win games and great potency in their ranks. They’re unbeaten so far this season in the Gambrinus Liga and have already scored four times at home but now they host a weak Slovacko side and on the back of their emphatic win at Hradec Kralove recently, I feel that momentum will steer them to victory today.
Slovacko have started this season exactly as they did last season – losing away from home and being hard to beat at home. It’s generally the best recipe to avoiding relegation, I suppose, but it makes them cannon fodder on the road. They claimed a 2-2 draw in Plzen last year but I don’t think they have the firepower to emulate that result today. Plzen look stronger and Slovacko look about the same, which bodes ominously for Slovacko as they conceded three at home to Plzen and two away to Plzen last season. Although Slovacko’s counter-attacks have the potential to cause a fairly shaky Viktoria Plzen side some problems tonight, the potency of the hosts should be far too much for the visitors so I think backing the hosts to beat the -1.5 goal handicap today has some value, especially with star striker Rezek in such good form.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 33/20.
Silkeborg vs AC Horsens – home win at 11/10.
My logic here is simple and explanation brief. Silkeborg are simply better than Horsens. Silkeborg have their own financial issues off the pitch but on it, they tend to score goals at home. Only two late goals from Lyngby last match got them a draw here but Silkeborg remain capable of scoring goals. Horsens, however, despite their misleading form, don’t score goals. They’re just terrible at finishing and if they score here it will be nothing short of a miracle. I’m surprised Silkeborg are as long as they are for this one because they’re a good way better than Horsens by my own reckoning at least and Horsens are as impotent as a side can be so the home win looks good to me today.
Verdict: Silkeborg to win at 11/10.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United – home win at 4/5.
4/5?! Are the bookies on crack?!
Billy Davies has done a fantastic job with Forest and although their squad numbers are limited, they’re still a good and well-organised side. They’ve not had a great start to their current campaign but that should change today against a poor Leeds side. Leeds’ opening game at home to atypical poor-travellers Derby County indicated just how out of their depth they are here with Kasper Schmeichel keeping the score to 2-1 to the visitors when it could have easily been 5-1. I have respect for Leeds’ tenacity but that’s all they bring to the table at the moment and clubs in this division can easily match that tenacity, which is basically all that Derby had to do to win the game. Forest are more than capable of doing just that and exploiting a very susceptible Leeds United defence today and I’ll be very surprised if Forest don’t win this somewhat comfortably. I can only imagine that these odds have emerged because of Leeds’ name because their actual ability should leave them on the receiving end of 4/7 by my reckoning so we should see a clear home win for Forest today!
Verdict: Nottingham Forest to win at 4/5.
MP Mikkeli vs TPV Tampere – away win at 9/5.
These odds are just too good to pass up on. Although both sides are battling relegation, only one of these sides are actually “battling” and that’s TPV Tampere. MP Mikkeli have already lost six out of eight home games this season due to their vastly ineffectual attack (the worst in the Ykkonen by far) and defence that concedes approximately 1.5 goals per home game. They’ve lost two consecutive games ahead of this one without even scoring a goal, not to mention the fact that they’ve scored in one of their last four home games. They were crushed 4-0 by TPV earlier this season and I expect them to lose again today if their attack remains as impotent as it has been all season long. TPV bring momentum into this game with the only side to beat them in their last seven games being league leaders RoPS Rovaniemi. They’ve won two out of their last three games and have scored seven goals along the way so potency and momentum favours TPV massively currently. I’m a bit concerned that TPV’s momentum comes from their home games as they’ve not played an away game for a while but with odds of 9/5 for them to win at MP, you have to feel they’re worth a shot today, particularly considering how poorly their newly-promoted opponents have been playing of late.
Verdict: TPV Tampere to win at 9/5.
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Toulouse – lay Girondins de Bordeaux at 13/10.
New manager Jean Tigana has already been shown the difficult task that is ahead of him by Bordeaux’s depressing defeat at a Montpellier side that were weary and devoid of their two best players from last year who were sold in the transfer window. Bordeaux have defensive concerns with injuries galore and the exit of Chamakh leaves massive pressure on Argentinian striker Cavenaghi to replace him as the dominant target man and Bordeaux aren’t adapting to that change too well currently. Tigana will get them firing at somepoint but I doubt it’ll be today. Toulouse should probably be arrested for anti-football crimes (i.e. eleven men behind the ball) but it cannot be denied just how good they are at frustrating sides. Toulouse don’t score enough goals in general and star striker Gignac is missing for this game and will be replaced by Pentecote but even so – Toulouse are more than capable of holding an under-performing and devoid of creativity Bordeaux side that have a lot of adjusting to do. Either way, the odds on laying Bordeaux are far too generous to be overlooked with the above in mind so give it some thought.
Verdict: Lay Girondins de Bordeaux at 13/10.
Omiya Ardija vs Jubilo Iwata – home win at 27/20.
I don’t understand why the odds on Omiya are as long as they are. Both of these sides are battling relegation and both are somewhat defensive sides, admittedly. However Omiya have played well lately and are unbeaten in three consecutive games, holding Yokohama F Marinos to a draw, winning at giants Urawa Red Diamonds, and annihlating Shonan Bellmare 3-0 last match. Momentum favours them immensely and they’re usually a solid enough home side so they do have a good chance here. Jubilo Iwata are a side purely created to prevent other sides from scoring so I have my concerns over them holding the hosts today. However, morale is low in the Iwata camp following back-to-back defeats against Cerezo Osaka and Montedio Yamagata without scoring a goal so they look there for the taking for in-form Omiya. Either way, the odds on the home win are too generous to overlook in my eyes so I fancy the Omiya victory today.
Verdict: Omiya Ardija to win at 27/20.
Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka – away win at evens.
Kyoto Sanga are all but relegated at the moment. Mathematically, they still have a very good chance of avoiding the drop but realistically, they have no chance. They just don’t score goals and in football, that’s naturally a pretty damn big handicap! Nobody has scored less goals than Kyoto this season and just six goals scored in eight home games in the J-League simply isn’t good enough, hence six defeats in eight home games. They’ve not won in seven consecutive games, losing six along the way, failing to score for their last five. They’ve played three home games during that run and lost all of them, even against relegation battlers Shonan Bellmare, embarrassingly. They look capable of losing against anyone because they don’t score goals and they concede too easily and with morale at rock-bottom, I really fancy the visitors today. Cerezo Osaka have impressed me a lot following promotion thanks to extremely well-organised displays, solid defending, and clinical finishing. The only side to get the better of Cerezo in their last five games was in-form Shimizu S-Pulse and that only ended 3-2! Cerezo have easily held Kawasaki Frontale and have destroyed strong defensive outfits Montedio Yamagata and Jubilo Iwata 3-0 each respectively so they know exactly how to play each side – their tactics are inch-perfect! Cerezo are such a strong side and excel in every area that Kyoto don’t that evens on the away win here looks something of a gift today.
Verdict: Cerezo Osaka to win at evens.
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Skonto Riga – away win at 8/5.
This is a fascinating game at the top of Latvian football between two of the best clubs. There’s naturally rivalry between them so most statistics are irrelevant here. However, what does interest me is the changes at both clubs since last season as I feel they’re quite relevant here. Liepajas have struggled this year because goalscoring hasn’t been as frequent, which is largely because star striker Karlsons departed to join Azeri outfit Inter Baku. They therefore rely very heavily on the goals of Karlsons’ former striker partner Grebis and Rafalskis’ goals from midfield. That might work against the majority of the division but you need your best players against the best sides and Liepajas are weaker this year whereas Skonto are stronger so I feel the advantage is with Skonto. Skonto have made an excellent acquisition with Junior in attack, who is scoring goals for fun. The pacey Pereplotkins provides great support and the next big thing in Latvian football Karasausks is contributing heavily to Skonto’s drive despite his young age. It’s pleasing to see another Maris Verpakovskis coming through the Skonto Riga ranks after all these years and the blend of youth and ability at the club is starting to pay big dividends. Ultimately, I think we have a Liepajas side in the descent and a Skonto Riga side on the ascent so the away win at 8/5 looks interesting today.
Verdict: Skonto Riga to win at 8/5.
Universidad San Martin vs Sport Boys – home win with -1.5 handicap at 27/20.
The best side in Peru has the chance to clinch the title tonight and I’ll be shocked if they don’t manage it. They’ve won eleven out of thirteen at home this season with an average of over two goals per home game scored and less than a goal per home game conceded on average. Their 2-1 win at home to Ecuadorian outfit Deportivo Quito mid-week has earned them a place in the next round of the Copa Sudamericana so the Universidad camp will be buoyant at the moment. What easier game for them to win the title on than a home game with Sport Boys though? Sport Boys have lost eleven out of thirteen on the road this season because they average conceding well over two goals per away game and average scoring just over a goal per every two away games. Sport Boys have shown some determination of late as they bid to avoid the dreaded drop but they’re facing what is unequivocally the best side in Peru tonight and they’re basically in for a beating, barring a miracle. Universidad should win this by two or more tonight and clinch the Peruvian title in doing so and odds of 27/20 on it occurring are good value in my eyes.
Verdict: Universidad San Martin to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 27/20.
Ruch Chorzow vs Wisla Krakow – away win at 6/5.
The problems I mentioned regarding Ruch Chorzow in my preview of Lechia Gdansk vs Ruch Chorzow last week are still very much applicable. The financial difficulties that the club has forced Ruch to sell their best players (i.e. striker Sobiech) and basically Ruch are left with one very good player (defender Sedlok) and a lot of average players with very little attacking threat whatsoever. Well, the news for Ruch has gotten worse since the Lechia game – they’re now missing another key player in defender Jakubowski. Sedlok kept Lechia out last match but without Jakubowski there, Ruch are really going to struggle today. They’ve brought in FC Twente Enschede youngster Pacuszka and midfielder Poliacek from Slovak side Tatran Presov in a desperate bid to boost their depleted squad but I can’t see it affecting today’s outcome vastly.
Wisla Krakow have problems of their own as they’re still technically managerless so former player Tomasz Kulawik will take charge for this game, although there are two strong favourites for the Wisla post in Argentinian Diego Simeone and Kuban Krasnodar boss Dan Petrescu. That’s a story for another day, however!
Wisla played well enough to defeat Arka Gdynia last match although the relegation favourites gave them a few scares along the way. Nonetheless, Wisla are still one of the best sides in the league and should be able to capitalise on Ruch’s problems today without any great issues. Wisla unfortunately miss star striker Pawel Brozek, who was injured during the Poland vs Cameroon game mid-week, and defender Singlar. Brozek is a blow for Wisla but I still feel they can engineer at least one goal without him. Good news for Wisla, however – Cleber and Gargula are fit again and able to join in Wisla’s Ekstraklasa title push so Wisla bring a stronger squad to this game as a result. Rumours are that Argentinian striker Andre Rios will get his chance in attack with Brozek absent so it’ll be interesting to see how the pacey striker adapts to the Polish game.
Either way, the team with the biggest problems here is Ruch Chorzow. They basically don’t offer a threat to goal, even for a fairly unstable Wisla Krakow side, so this bet suddenly takes on the mantle of “draw or away win”. A draw is possible if Wisla draw a blank here but I think there’s far too much value on the away win at 6/5 with the above information in mind so I’ll be calling that today.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at 6/5.
Nieciecza vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala – away win at 29/20.
Podbeskidzie adapted really well to playing away from home last season with seven wins on the road (probably quite literally, depending on the opponent!) in Liga 1 and have already claimed a draw from the trip to face Kolejarz Stroze this season so they look to be continuing that run. They overcame Gornik Polkowice 2-0 at home last match so they do bring momentum into this game and I’ve not heard that they’re missing any players for this game. They will need to keep an eye on Nieciecza star midfielder Maka, who is on loan from Polonia Bytom, and has impressed for the hosts today thus far. However, the newly-promoted hosts aren’t playing too well as a whole just yet as they’re yet to register a goal in two games, albeit both away from home. Nieciecza are playing a good side today that are experienced on the road and if their impotent run continues then I fancy the away win here a lot, despite the poor pitch. Let’s face it – it can’t be worse than Kolejarz Stroze’s pitch so the visitors have a good chance here! I expect the visitors to bring plenty of momentum into this game and they are used to playing on crap pitches so I think there could be some value in the away win today.
Verdict: Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala to win at 29/20.
Kolejarz Stroze vs Gorzow Wielkopolski – away win at 7/4.
Newly-promoted Kolejarz Stroze may be unbeaten so far in Liga 1 but they’re yet to win a game either, drawing both games. Podbekidzie Bielsko Biala could only manage a draw on this terrible pitch but hopefully today’s visitors will have more luck. Kolejarz are a fairly hard side to beat because of their combative football style but they’re not particularly good nor potent so a well-organised side shouldn’t have any trouble in overcoming them, which is what I’m banking on today. Gorzow Wielkopolski are that well-organised side as they’ve proven with back-to-back wins at the start of this season without even conceding a goal whilst averaging scoring two goals per game. They didn’t travel well last season but they’re looking a lot more assured this season, particularly with star striker Emil Drozdowicz in such potent form so I’ll give the visitors a chance until proven otherwise. The hosts would take a draw here but the visitors will be seeking three points following an impressive couple of games so I fancy the away win here at very generous odds although caution is obviously recommened, particularly on this quagmire of a pitch.
Verdict: Gorzow Wielkopolski to win at 7/4.
CSKA Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala – Anzhi Makhachkala to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
I like this bet an awful lot because I’m expecting CSKA to play their predictably boring home football and for it to be as ineffective as ever. I don’t doubt their superiority over newly-promoted Anzhi Makhachkala but they’ve failed to beat Saturn Moscow Oblast and have even lost to Spartak Nalchik in their last two home games; why should that change today? It’s easy to defend against CSKA’s one-dimensional attacking when at the Luzhniki; it’s only when CSKA are the away side that their attack shows its true colours. CSKA have lost the pace of Krasic, who is negotiating terms to move to Juventus and looks likely never to play for the club again. CSKA just don’t have enough players in their side that can change a game, although the re-introduction of former hero Vagner Love is a welcome one for the ailing attack of CSKA. CSKA have only won three out of eight home games in the Premier League this season because of how easy it is to defend against them and if you give the away side +1.5 goals in each of those games then CSKA lose six out of their eight home games this season. We all know how capable the hosts are but until they start showing it, I see no reason to overly heed it. Anzhi have played really well of late, winning three out of their last four games, including a 4-1 win at Tom Tomsk. They’ve only conceded two goals during those four games and whereas all their opponents in those games aren’t as good as CSKA, the fact remains that Anzhi have defended well so should be able to cause problems for CSKA today. Anzhi have lost four out of seven on the road this season so my bet does allow for CSKA to win the game today but I just don’t see a convincing CSKA win on the cards unless they really turn it on and frankly odds of 10/11 on Anzhi +1.5 look a real steal today, although you can always lay CSKA at 23/10 if you feel particularly lucky today.
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborgs – home win at 5/4.
It’s strange but I’d actually say that exiting European competition against Dutch side AZ Alkmaar has kick-started IFK’s Allsvenskan campaign because they’ve looked good since they started locking horns with superior sides. They crushed Kalmar 3-1 and won 5-1 at local rivals BK Hacken Goteborg (who they normally struggle against!) before eventually crashing out to AZ and now have the opportunity to create a huge dent in bitter rivals Helsingborgs’ title hopes, which will no doubt appeal to them immensely. It’s been some time since IFK overcame Helsingborgs at home but with Tobias Hysen starting to look a little more like his old self and IFK scoring goals galore of late, as well as believing in themselves, you have to feel that IFK are a very real threat here. Indeed, IFK’s dreams of European football next season are not dead yet so I think we’ll see a very committed display from the hosts today.
This game is the last one that Helsingborgs need at the moment because they’ve looked nothing short of nervous lately. They played a remarkable home game with lowly Djurgardens last match but the game ended 3-3, which was of little use to league leaders Helsingborgs in their title push. That result in itself shows that Helsingborgs are starting to look nervous but consider that they’ve conceded goals for eleven consecutive games in all competitions now and you can see how much the composure has gone from their play. The signing of striker Gerndt from Gefle was an intelligent one and it was proven to be so when he bagged a hat-trick last match in the 3-3 draw with Djurgardens. However, the game came with a punishment as experienced holding midfielder Marcus Lantz was dismissed and now misses this game as a result, which is a massive blow for Helsingborgs as he’s their captain and he’s the type of player you need to calm the play down and to stop IFK taking a hold of the game. Helsingborgs have lost two out of their last three Allsvenskan away games so I don’t think they’ll be feeling too positive about this one today, let alone without Lantz!
So what do we have here? A potent and in-form host with the desire to uproot the title challenge of their nervous visitors? This game smells like an upset to me and I really fancy IFK to win this game at decent odds of 5/4 with the above in mind.
Verdict: IFK Goteborg to win at 5/4.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Lviv – Shakhtar Donetsk to lead at half-time/full-time at 3/4.
Karpaty Lviv’s attention has to be on their trip to Turkey in a few days time in the UEFA Europa League as they take on Galatasaray so I can’t see them fielding a full strength team here. Nobody takes points away from the Donbass Arena other than Shakhtar Donetsk; Karpaty know that and I daresay they’ve already written the game off to a certain degree. Karpaty will look tokeep the scoreline respectable but I’m not sure they have the depth to do so, particularly with Shakhtar in such menacing form. Shakhtar have notched up eight goals in their past two games with all of their Brazilians looking in slick form so Karpaty have every reason to be afraid today. Barring the game against feeder club Zorya Lugansk (in which Shakhtar had a man dismissed early in the game and needed a late winner to secure three points) Shakhtar have won led in both halves of both of their two remaining home games so I think they’re capable of doing the same again today. They’re by far the better of the two sides and led in both halves against Karpaty’s first-string last season in a 5-1 drubbing so I really fancy Shakhtar to do the same again today at decent odds of 3/4, particularly with Karpaty attention elsewhere.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to lead at half-time/full-time at 3/4.
Sevastopol vs Metalurg Donetsk – half-time draw/full-time Metalurg Donetsk at 7/2.
This is more of a fun bet than anything so approach with caution! However, I simply enjoy the statistic that Sevastopol’s defensive style means that they’ve been drawing at half-time in four out of their five games so far this season with the only exception being their humiliation at Shakhtar Donetsk lately. They’re a good defensive outfit but provide little threat on goal so they tend to draw or lose. Metalurg Donetsk have descended from their dizzying heights over the past few years and are a rather droll and low-scoring side nowadays. However, they’re still better than 70% of the Ukrainian Premier League and so long as they take their chances then they can win this game. Metalurg are strong in defence so I really don’t see them losing this game. My thought pattern is that it’s going to take them a long time to break down minnows Sevastopol today so I can see it being a draw at half-time quite easily. However, my concern is whether Metalurg Donetsk take the chances that come their way or not. They’re definitely good enough to, despite poor form of late, and the odds of 7/2 make it look intriguing so I fancy this one today!
Verdict: Half-time draw/full-time Metalurg Donetsk victory at 7/2.
Caroni vs Caracas – away win at 6/5.
Caroni got a royal “welcome to the Primera Division” greeting from Carabobo when they were thrashed 3-1 in their opening day fixture. They now have another difficult game as they host giants Caracas. Caracas are by far the better of these two sides and although Venezuelan away wins are always hard to call for obvious reasons, Caracas are one of the few sides good enough to consistently do so. They won five out of nine on the road last season because they averaged scoring nearly two goals per game, which certainly helped compensate for their fairly ineffectual defending. Caroni were strong in the Segunda Division when playing at home due to solid defending but their strength will be much more than I anticipate it to be if they think they can keep out arguably the most potent side in Venezuela. Altitude makes games very difficult to judge in this country but one thing that does remain constant is the quality of Caracas and I frankly feel they’ve been priced too generously on the away win tonight so that’s my recommendation here aginst their newly-promoted opponents.
Verdict: Caracas to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Estudiantes De La Plata, Naftan Novopolotsk, Racing Genk, Fluminense, Universidad Catolica, Independiente Medellin, Viktoria Plzen, Brondby, Skive, AGF Aarhus, AB Copenhagen, Ferencvaros, FK Ventspils, Puebla, America, Bodo Glimt, Rubio Nu, Juan Aurich, Universidad San Martin, SL Benfica, FC Zurich, Fenerbahce, Shakhtar Donetsk, Llanelli, Port Talbot Town.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
Dinamo Minsk, Naftan Novopolotsk, and Viktoria Plzen at 3/1.
Skive, AB Copenhagen, and AGF Aarhus at 2/1.
Independiete Medellin, Universidad Catolica, and Deportivo Tachira at 4/1.
Fluminense, Caracas, and Universidad San Martin at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Huracan vs River Plate (7) 1-1
All Boys vs Velez Sarsfield (8) 1-2
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Quilmes (8) 2-1
Olimpo vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United (5) 0-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Dinamo Brest (7) over 2.5 goals
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Neman Grodno (8) 2-0
Dnepr Mogilev vs Torpedo Zhodino (6) 2-1
Vitebsk vs Belshina (7) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Charleroi (8) 2-1
Cercle Brugge vs Club Brugge (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Brazilian Serie A:
Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro (5) under 2.5 goals
Gremio Prudente vs Vasco da Gama (6) 0-1
Avai vs Corinthians (6) 1-1
Fluminense vs Internacional (8) -1.5 handicap
Vitoria vs Santos (7) 2-1
Gremio vs Goias (5) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Beroe (6) 2-1
Chernomorets Burgas vs Levski Sofia (7) 1-2
Chilean Primera Division:
Santiago Morning vs Universidad Catolica (8) 0-2
San Luis vs La Serena (4) 1-1
Nublense vs Huachipato (6) 0-1
Cobresal vs Cobreloa (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Cortulua (8) 2-0
Boyaca Chico vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 2-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Tolima (7) over 2.5 goals
Deportes Quindio vs Deportivo Cali (4) 1-1
America de Cali vs Real Cartagena (5) over 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jabloenc vs Bohemians 1905 (4) 1-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovacko (8) -1.5 handicap
Ceske Budejovice vs Hradec Kralove (6) 0-0
Slavia Prague vs Slovan Liberec (6) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs AC Horsens (6) 2-0
Randers vs Lyngby (4) 1-1
Brondby vs Esbjerg (8) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Skive vs Hobro (8)
AGF Aarhus vs Bronshoj (8)
Hjorring vs Roskilde (5) over 2.5 goals
AB Copenhagen vs Hvidovre (9) -1.5 handicap
Fredericia vs Kolding (6) over 2.5 goals
Viborg vs Vestjaelland (5)
Fyn vs Vejle (6)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Liga de Quito (5) 1-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs Arsenal (6) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United (7)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B71 Sandur vs NSI Runavik (8) 1-2
B36 Torshavn vs HB Torshavn (6) 1-1
IF Fuglafjordur vs Vikingur Gotu (5) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
MyPa Anjalankoski vs FC Lahti (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Inter Turku vs TPS Turku (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Finnish Ykkonen:
MP Mikkeli vs TPV Tampere (5)
Espoo vs Jippo Joensuu (5)
Hameenlinna vs HJK II (6)
PoPa Pori vs KooTeePee Kotka (7)
KPV Kokkola vs RoPS Rovaniemi (6)
PS Kemi Kings vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Toulouse (6) 0-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 1-2
LOSC Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ferencvaros vs Budapest Honved (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Japanese J-League:
Omiya Ardija vs Jubilo Iwata (7) 2-0
Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 1-2
Kawasaki Frontale vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 2-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Skonto Riga (6) 0-1
Jauniba vs FK Ventspils (9) 0-2
Daugava Daugavpils vs FK Jurmala (5) 2-1
Tranzits Ventspils vs RFS/Olimps Riga (5) 1-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Klaipeda vs Siauliai (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Mazeikiai vs Tauras Taurage (7) 0-1
Ekranas Panevezys vs Suduva Marijampole (7) over 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Puebla vs Atlante (8) 2-0
Toluca vs Tigres UANL (6) 2-1
America vs Atlas (8) 2-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (7) under 2.5 goals
Utrecht vs NAC Breda (6) 1-0
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen (4) 1-1
ADO Den Haag vs Roda JC Kerkrade (6) 1-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 (7) over 2.5 goals
Bodo Glimt vs Mjondalen (8)
Sandnes Ulf vs Moss (3)
Nybergsund vs Tromsdalen (7)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs 3 de Febrero (8) 2-0
Tacuary vs Cerro Porteno (7) 1-2
Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game.
Peruvian Primera Division:
Total Chalaco vs Sporting Cristal (5) 1-1
Sport Huancayo vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Universidad San Martin vs Sport Boys (9) -1.5 handicap
Juan Aurich vs Inti Gas (8) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz (6) 1-1
Ruch Chorzow vs Wisla Krakow (7) 0-1
Polish 1 Liga:
Nieciecza vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala (6) under 2.5 goals
Ruch Radzionkow vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (5) draw no bet
Kolejarz Stroze vs Gorzow Wielkopolski (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs CD Nacional de Madeira (5) 0-1
Beira-Mar vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 0-0
SL Benfica vs Academica de Coimbra (8) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Sportul Studentesc (7) over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Bucharest vs Rapid Bucharest (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Poli Timisoara (5) 0-0
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (5) under 1.5 goals
CSKA Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala (5) 1-1
Terek Grozny vs Rubin Kazan (6) 0-1
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moscow (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Scottish Premier League:
Motherwell vs Hibernian (5) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Primorje vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborgs (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6) over 2.5 goals
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Falkenberg (4)
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs Thun (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
St.Gallen vs Grasshoppers Zurich (5) 2-2
FC Zurich vs Bellinzona (8) 2-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Karabukspor vs Manisaspor (5) 0-0
Fenerbahce vs Antalyaspor (8) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Arsenal Kiev vs Volyn Lutsk (7) 1-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Lviv (8) -1.5 handicap
Sevastopol vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 0-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Deportivo Lara (5) 2-1
Zulia vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 1-0
Estudiantes de Merida vs Carabobo (7) 2-1
Caroni vs Caracas (7) 1-2
Monagas SC vs Atletico Venezuela (6) over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Tachira vs Deportivo Anzoategui (7) 2-1
Deportivo Petare vs Mineros de Guayana (5) 1-1
Real Esppor Club vs Zamora (6) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus vs Llanelli (8) 0-2
Port Talbot Town vs Bala Town (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!