Slovacko vs Slavia Prague
FreeToday’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga game between relegation-threatened Slovacko and reigning champions Slavia Prague. Slovacko bought their way into this division but haven’t been able to do much since doing so due to a severe lack of quality. Slavia Prague are struggling to retain their title but remain one of the best sides in the division.
Slovacko are currently third from bottom in the Gambrinus Liga and stand no chance of avoiding relegation, in my opinion. They’ve already lost five out of nine home games this season, which is too many, and owe a great portion of their unsuccessful time to goal-shy displays, something particularly evident from the fact that only Kladno, Ceske Budejovice, and Bohemians 1905 have scored less home goals than they have. Slovacko aren’t big conceders but tend to concede enough to lose, which makes them a prime target today. Slovacko have lost twice and drawn once since returning from the winter break, a run which includes a home defeat by poor-travelling Brno, an away defeat against Sigma Olomouc, and a fortuitous draw at relegation battlers Bohemians Prague. Slovacko have only scored once during these three games so they’re naturally struggling to take points. Slovacko basically have a ceiling and they know when they’re at it. Basically, they lose to sides that are better than they are, which is logical and accurate en mass. Slovacko’s defeats at home this season have come against Sparta Prague, Banik Ostrava, Viktoria Plzen, Teplice, and Brno. Four of those sides are having good seasons and playing good football and the other is a decent side. Slovacko have only taken points at home against Kladno, Bohemians Prague, Sigma Olomouc, and Jablonec this season. Jablonec may be a relative surprise on this list but the others aren’t even though Sigma Olomouc are a better side – they’re having a bad season. Effectively, Slovacko aren’t good enough to take on the bigger and/or better sides than they are so they’re going to have a nightmare in contending with the champions today.
Slavia Prague will be the first to admit that they’ve not had a great campaign. They’ve struggled for goals since the departure of prodigy Tomas Necid and the fact that their leading goalscorer this season is Adam Hlousek indicates that perfectly as he’s a midfielder. Slavia Prague have brought in the likes of experienced striker Zdenek Senkerik and pacey Slovakian striker Milan Ivana but neither have filled the void particularly well yet so Slavia Prague are still struggling for goals. Slavia Prague have only scored twenty-five goals in nineteen Gambrinus Liga games, which isn’t really good enough for them. They’ve never been as tight defensively as their richer neighbours Sparta Prague so their goals conceded this season are about par for the course but they’re suffering more this season due to the lack of goals being scored to counter their defensive frailties. Nonetheless, it’d be unfair and a lie to say anything other than that Slavia Prague are still one of the best two sides in the Czech Republic so they’re always going to be a significant threat in this league. They’ve only won three out of nine away games this season but have only lost twice, which again indicates a lack of goals as their defensive form has been strong – only Sparta Prague have conceded less goals on the road than they have. However, since returning from the winter break, Slavia Prague look somewhat refreshed and have scored four goals in three games, winning twice and drawing once. The only side to prevent them from winning was a Teplice side in the form of their lives in a 0-0 stalemate last match. However, Slavia Prague have played two contemporaries of Slovacko in recent times – Ceske Budejovice and Bohemians Prague – and have beaten both of them so they’re certainly capable of doing so. Slavia Prague’s wins on the road this season have been against Bohemians Prague, Kladno, and Ceske Budejovice i.e. three of the poorest sides in the Gambrinus Liga so it’s fair to say that whereas Slavia Prague have problems scoring goals against more resilient defences, they don’t have problems breaking down the lesser sides.
Ultimately, there’s a massive, massive gulf in ability between these two sides. Slovacko could and should be relegated this season whereas reigning champions Slavia Prague are still seeking to claim a European place for next season. A season without European football is unthinkable for Slavia Prague so don’t be surprised if they have a very good second half of the season. Slavia Prague have impressed me since returning from the break and Slovacko have simply picked up where they left off; staring relegation in the face. Slavia Prague have beaten the lower sides in this division on the road comfortably already this season and I’ll be astounded if they don’t do the same again today. I think the bookies have massively over-priced Slavia Prague with the above information in mind and would advise backing the away win sooner rather than later as the odds will surely drop. The odds should be about 8/11 in my eyes but I’ll happily take them at anything above that.
Verdict: Slavia Prague to win at 10/11.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Brondby vs Randers – lay Brondby at 6/4.
The glory days of Brondby are well and truly behind them nowadays with the likes of Ebbe Sand and Peter Schmeichel nothing but memories. They’ve been disappointing for some time now but they’ve recently peaked in how much they’ve disappointed me on a personal level which I’m sure they’re very concerned about so it’s safe to say that they’re not playing well. Since returning from their winter break, Brondby have managed to draw at home to lowly SonderjyskE and lose at biter rivals FC Copenhagen. These results might not be condemning by themselves but they’re simply following the pattern of Brondby’s season in general so far which is why they’re languishing mid-table in the Superligaen. They’ve won just four out of ten home games this season, which is quite appalling for a club of their size and stature. They’re the second-highest goalscoring side in the division at home with over two goals scored per home game but in the same breath, only bottom club – the doomed HB Koge – have conceded more at home than they have with Brondby averaging nearly two goals conceded per home game. With Brondby’s goals drying up at the moment but their goals conceded still high, it’s hard for me to comprehend why they’re 2/5 to win this game – I daresay that the bookies have calculated this on Brondby’s name alone.
The latest side to attempt to stifle a goal-shy Brondby is second bottom club Randers. What people tend to forget about Randers is how good they’re actually capable of being. This side finished so well last season that they earned a place in Europe this season. They were dismissed in the early stages but the juggling between domestic football and European football is fatal if the side is not ready to embrace it and Randers certainly weren’t able to do so. Their European stint has cost them their season and it may yet get worse. However, my point is that they remain a good side but biding their time. They’ve performed ominously since returning from the winter break by drawing at Esbjerg and at home to Nordsjaelland in two goalless draws. Both of those two opponents are worthy opponents so I respect Randers for those results and can see them having a good second half to their campaign if they continue as they are. Randers’ problems have also been scoring goals this season, something that they’ve done just five times in nine away games. However, as I’ve said already, they’re a capable side and now that they’re keeping sides out effectively, they’re starting to look a slight threat again so underestimate them at your own peril!
In the Superligaen, Brondby have only won this fixture once in their last three attempts. I’m not seeing much to support as to why that record is likely to change tonight so I don’t believe it will. Both sides are capable of playing much better than they are but I think they’ll cancel each other out tonight as stifling sides is what Randers are doing well currently and not scoring is what Brondby are doing well currently. Either way, the value has to be in laying Brondby tonight as I find the odds on the hosts far too short for my liking.
Verdict: Lay Brondby at 6/4.
Angers SCO vs Stade Malherbe de Caen – home win at 17/10.
Now these are rather juicy odds, aren’t they? Angers SCO are a good side, particularly at home, something that they emphasised with some impressive displays last season. Although the anti-climax of this season has hit them quite hard, they’ve still remained a threat at home and I don’t expect that to change by tonight. Angers have won eight out of fourteen home games in Ligue 2 and only Metz, Arles, and tonight’s opponents Caen have conceded less goals at home than they have, which is fortunate as Angers’ goalscoring record isn’t particularly favourable. They’re on a great run of form with no defeats in five games, winning three of those games. They’ve beaten Strasbourg away from home, which was an impressive result, and have claimed a draw at a difficult Sedan-Ardennes, which is also respectable. They’ve scored ten goals during those five games, which is an average of two goals per game, so they’re currently looking more potent than they have all season. Ultimately, I expect Angers to put up a good fight tonight and their momentum as well as home advantage gives them a good chance of upsetting the apple cart tonight.
Stade Malherbe de Caen are a despairingly dull Ligue 2 side but they’re massively efficient and effective as a result. Only second-placed Brest have conceded less away goals than Caen have this season so it explains why Caen don’t tend to lose many on the road – just three this season, in fact. However, the fact that they’ve only won four times on the road in thirteen attempts tells another story, one which shows that they don’t score enough goals and aren’t concise enough when it comes to disposing of opponents. Consider that Caen haven’t scored in any of their last three away games and you’ll start to think that this is an interesting bet. Caen have only lost once against a resilient Ajaccio on a tough trip to Corsica but a side not scoring goals won’t win games. Caen have only won twice in their last five games overall in Ligue 2 so they’re hardly in-form at the moment and could very well be caught unaware tonight by a potent Angers side.
Interestingly enough, Caen have beaten Angers in all five previous encounters in this division at either ground so Angers are up against it tonight. Caen are a very good side and take pride in stopping other sides playing football. However, Caen don’t win on the road often and a potent Angers could take advantage of that tonight if they penetrate the sturdy Caen defence. Although it’ll be a close game, you have to feel that the home win at 17/10 is worth a punt tonight, particularly with Caen so devoid of goals on the road of late!
Verdict: Angers SCO to win at 17/10.
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Kaiserslautern – home win at 6/4.
Two of the better two sides in the Bundesliga 2 lock horns tonight in a game which the visitors could use the win but the hosts need the win.
Fortuna Dusseldorf are a funny side in that they’ll lose to anyone away but are capable of beating anyone at home. They’re not your average “home side” – they’re the absolute epitome of the term “home side”. They’ve won ten out of thirteen home games this season, drawing the other three games. They’ve conceded just five goals in thirteen home games this season which is why nobody wins here but them. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game so they’re really a very difficult side to play against on their own turf. Despite a disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Greuther Furth in their last home game, Dusseldorf have still won eight out of their last nine home games in this division and haven’t conceded in their last five so they’re really an extremely strong side at home.
However, they’ll be put to the test today by league leaders Kaiserslautern. The visitors are unbeaten in eight games with five wins and three draws along the way. Despite having won eight out of thirteen away games this season, Kaiserslautern have stuttered on the road in recent times with just two wins from their last five away games, losing twice and drawing once. Kaiserslautern are a very capable, strong, and dependable side in this division but they’re conceding too many goals on the road and sometimes their goalscoring won’t bail them out, as I expect it not to tonight.
Although it’s unquestionably a risky call, you have to fancy an extremely strong Fortuna Dusseldorf to do some damage at home to league leaders Kaiserslautern as they’re a very potent home side that rarely concede. Kaiserslautern aren’t as bothered about this game as Dusseldorf because they’re in a good position to achieve promotion currently so I can’t see them being particularly motivated tonight. Whichever way you look at it, however, there is certainly value in the home win tonight with the proviso that the hosts break the deadlock!
Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at 6/4.
Emmen vs MVV Maastricht – home win (no odds listed yet but worth taking at anything above evens)
Emmen are a funny side! Despite being one of the poorer sides in the Eerste Divisie, they always manage to be in games that involve a lot of goals! Recently, they’ve been scoring an awful lot of goals as well as conceding a lot so their games have been frankly epic lately! Emmen have only lost once in their last five games so I suppose you could say that they’re even “in-form” by their standards, particularly when you consider that they’ve won two of those games. What impresses me most with Emmen of late is their potency, however. They’ve notched up nine goals in their last five games and have scored eight goals in their last three home games, winning twice and drawing once. Basically, to stop Emmen, you need to score a lot of goals at the moment and I don’t think MVV are capable of doing so.
MVV Maastricht are a dominant home side but an atrocious away side. No Eerste Divisie side has lost more away games than they have this season (although Fortuna Sittard can match them) with eleven defeats in sixteen games. I don’t know what changes (aside from the obvious) between MVV at home and MVV away but the transformation is frightening. MVV concede approximately 2.5 goals per away game and score just over a goal per away game, thus they lose most away games. They’ve lost three out of their last five away games, drawing twice along the way. They’ve conceded thirteen goals during those five away games but have scored at least once in each game so they’re capable of putting up a fight. However, their shoddy defending leaves them on the receiving end of epic scorelines far more than they are on the winning side of it so I’ll give Emmen a chance tonight.
Although MVV are a better side than Emmen, Emmen’s potency of late is frightening and they should be able to outscode an MVV side that don’t travel well. It’s a risky call but I do expect the odds to be worth it if they’re evens or above.
Verdict: Emmen to win
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Unirea Urziceni – lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.
This is probably the boldest call that I’ve made today but there is some method to the madness. What we have here is the bottom club in the Romanian Liga hosting the reigning champions so you wouldn’t give the home side a chance, surely? Wrong.
Despite Unirea Alba Iulia having lost all five games since returning from the winter break, they’re actually a fairly competent home side. They’ve only lost four times in ten home games this season and have never lost by more than a solitary goal in the four games that they have lost. Unirea Alba Iulia are good defensively if nothing else and although a goal for a good away side tends to be enough to get them the points, big sides have still come to this ground and failed to win this season i.e. CFR Cluj, Vaslui, Poli Timisoara etc. so don’t dismiss the hosts too readily. I’ll admit that I’m concerned by their lack of goals scored of late but I’m prepared to ride that as their visitors aren’t playing well.
I don’t think anyone’s in a position to say anything other than the fact that Unirea Urziceni are better than Unirea Alba Iulia. However, they’re not showing it of late as particularly stubborn defences have prevented them from winning. Unirea Urziceni have only won four out of eleven away games this season because they only just average scoring over a goal per away game, a statistic that is heavily aided by them boasting the best defensive away record in the division. Unirea Urziceni haven’t won a single game since returning from the winter break, drawing four times. They’ve played some good opponents, don’t get me wrong, but a draw at home to Otelul Galati illustrates my point perfectly. Otelul don’t travel well but were still able to take a point from their game with Unirea Urziceni because the hosts on that occasion couldn’t score goals. In fact, Unirea Urziceni haven’t scored in either of their last two games now and are starting to look a tad predictable. Although Unirea Urziceni are a good side on their day and are more than capable of winning this game, I just don’t see how the goal-shy visitors that are somewhat short on confidence are going to break down a stubborn host that would treat the draw here as a gift from God.
I think the bookies have over-priced Unirea Urziceni at 8/15 for this game. Unirea Urziceni aren’t playing well, they’re not beating sides, and they’re not scoring goals. Unirea Alba Iulia aren’t a particularly good side but they’re reliable at home and they don’t concede many goals so I think it’s worth a punt on laying the reigning champions today.
Verdict: Lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.
Astra Ploiesti vs Poli Timisoara – away win at evens.
Astra Ploiesti are very strong at home so this is certainly a risky call. They’ve only lost one home game this season, which was against Pandurii Targi Jiu at the start of the season, surprisingly enough. Many big clubs have come here and failed to win already this season but Astra Ploiesti are capable of losing at home. Their draw at home to Politehnica Iasi last match reminded them that they are human after all so they may yet struggle in games like this. What I do like about today’s hosts is not only their spirit and tenacity but the fact that they tend to score in every home game. In fact, the only two home games that they haven’t scored in were their first two in this division so I’ll give them their dues – they’re hard to beat on their own turf.
However, Poli Timisoara are one of those sides that are good enough to do so. They enter this game on the back of an emphatic 6-0 win at home to bottom club Unirea Alba Iulia so their morale has just taken a hefty boost, and it was a much needed boost following a couple of tough games against Rapid Bucharest and Unirea Urziceni. What I will say for Poli Timisoara, however, is that they’re not conceding goals currently. They’ve only conceded two goals in five games since returning from the winter break and one of those was at home. Their only other goal conceded was at a very in-form Rapid Bucharest when they lost 1-0. However, sides that aren’t in form do tend to struggle against the mighty Poli Timisoara so I think that Astra Ploeisti’s impressive record of scoring in the vast majority of their home games may take a sharp shock today.
Although this will undoubtedly be a close game, I feel that Poli Timisoara are good enough to win this game. Their emphatic win last match will have given them confidence and the fact that they’re not conceding is serving them well. Astra Ploiesti will make life hard for Poli Timisoara today, I’ve no doubt about that, but I do doubt their ability to score against Poli Timisoara’s stubborn defence. Although it’s a risky call, I think that a narrow away win isn’t out of the question today and odds of evens or above are worthwhile taking, in my opinion.
Verdict: Poli Timisoara to win at evens.
Vaslui vs Rapid Bucharest – away win at 17/10.
This is an extremely risky call as Vaslui are traditionally good at home and Rapid Bucharest traditionally struggle away from home. However, despite Vaslui having won six out of ten home games already this season, they’ve not filled me with confidence since returning from the winter break. They’ve played two home games during those five games, beating Pandurii Targu Jiu 2-1 and remarkably losing 1-0 at home to an in-form but rather mediocre Gloria Bistrita. Vaslui may have won their last match 3-1 at Politehnica Iasi but their wounds are still fresh from a disappointing defeat at home to Gloria Bistrita and they’ll be looking nervous in this game no doubt. Vaslui have a massive semi-final in the Cupa Romaniei coming up in three days against Brasov and will almost certainly have their attention on that as their domestic campaign is looking a little stagnant currently. Who knows – they may even rest some players too!
Visitors Rapid Bucharest disappointed all of us by losing at home to Astra Ploeisti last match but remain a very good side nonetheless. They’ve only won three away games out of eleven attempts this season but did win at a difficult Unirea Alba Iulia in their last away game and did so whilst keeping a clean sheet so respect goes to them for that as their hosts on that occasion were not particularly charitable hosts! Rapid Bucharest’s problem is scoring goals, something that they’ve not done more than once in a game since returning from the winter break. However, they’ve harnessed some defensive ability of late so they do stand a good chance of claiming a narrow away win here today, particularly after their recent success on the road.
Vaslui don’t have a good record at home to Rapid Bucharest. They’ve beaten them just once in their last four home games and have lost twice so they know how to lose to their poor-travelling visitors. Vaslui should have their attention on the semi-final in a few days time and aren’t playing well currently. With Rapid Bucharest getting better defensively, you have to feel that there’s value in the away win today with the proviso that Rapid Bucharest get the first goal and the odds are certainly good enough for a risk to be taken by backing them!
Verdict: Rapid Bucharest to win at 17/10.
Tom Tomsk vs Rubin Kazan – away win at evens.
Tomsk is a tough away game as the hosts are experienced relegation battlers and fight for every ball. They have a haphazard record at home as know who they can and can’t beat and there tends to be little compromise from the hosts with their tactics as they do tend to win or lose at home but rarely draw. Tom Tomsk are a bit like a poor man’s Terek Grozny – they’re quite good at home, they score quite a lot of goals at home, but also concede a lot at home and know when they’re going to be outclassed. Tom Tomsk are rapidly adjusting to the idea that Rubin Kazan are now some way better than they are with Rubin winning three out of the last four meetings between these two clubs at either ground with the other game ending in a draw. Rubin Kazan won their visit here last season so Tom Tomsk know they have a tough game ahead of them. Remarkably, Tom Tomsk won their opening game of the Russian Premier League this season at a strong home side – Rostov-na-Donu. This result surprised a lot of people, including myself, so I am a tad wary that we’re not seeing a sharp boost of Tom Tomsk momentum!
However, visitors Rubin Kazan are looking more tactically astute than ever so should be able to handle their feisty hosts today. Rubin Kazan also won their opening Russian Premier League game of the season in a considerably more difficult tie at home to title challengers Lokomotiv Moscow, who are a tough prospect under Lokomotiv legend Yury Semin. Rubin Kazan have a lot of competitive match experience as they’ve been playing in Europe of late as well as facing (and beating) CSKA Moscow in the Russian Super Cup so they’re well-prepared for this game with little to no rustiness in their football. Rubin Kazan are strong enough defensively to keep Tom Tomsk out and they’re astute enough tactically to score against today’s hosts so Rubin really have a damn good chance of winning this game.
Unlike most class differences in this division, Rubin’s superiority lies in their ability to stop sides from playing football and by being very clinical. This has seemingly increased somehow since last season with Rubin Kazan having already faced CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv Moscow without conceding a goal so Rubin Kazan are looking a force yet again. I’ll chalk Tom Tomsk’s opening day victory at Rostov-na-Donu down to a good display but not one that I expect them to carry into this game. Tom Tomsk aren’t good enough to get anything from this game and I expect that to show by the end of play today.
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Rosenborg BK, Real Betis Balompie, IFK Goteborg, Bursaspor
Recommended bets:
Rosenborg BK, IFK Goteborg, and Fortuna Dusseldorf at 5/1.
Real Betis Balompie, Bursaspor, and Rubin Kazan at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sliven vs Minior Pernik (6) under 1.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Slavia Prague (8) 1-2
Danish Superligaen:
Brondby vs Randers (5) 0-0
English League One:
Leeds United vs Millwall (6)
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Kaiserslautern (6) under 2.5 goals
Greek B Ethniki:
Pierikos Katerini vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)
Diagoras Rodos vs Panaitolikos Agrinio (4)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Emmen vs MVV Maastricht (6) over 3.5 goals
Veendam vs Oss (4)
Den Bosch vs Volendam (7) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Rosenborg BK vs Start Kristiansand (8) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Unirea Urziceni (4) 0-0
Astra Ploiesti vs Poli Timisoara (6) 1-2
Vaslui vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 0-1
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Rubin Kazan (7) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Etoile (7) 2-0
Woodlands Wellington vs Home United (5) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Castellon (8) under 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken (8) 2-0
Elfsborg Boras vs Halmstad (7) 2-1
Atvidabergs vs Gefle (5) 0-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Kriens vs Wil (4) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Denizlispor (9) -1.75 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!