Spain vs Paraguay
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup encounter between Spain and Paraguay. Favourites Spain are starting to impose themselves upon the World Cup without being excessively flambuoyant so it’s encouraging to feel that they still have another level to reach. Paraguay have surpassed all expectations so far in this tournament and the fact that they’ve reached this round has earned them my respect and hopefully the respect of their fans and opposing fans alike as they’ve certainly earned it.
Spain navigated their way to this round by overcoming Iberian rivals Portugal last match in a game that left some people still questioning their ability to win the World Cup, which frankly astounds me. Portugal showed how afraid of Spain they were by playing incredibly defensively and fair play to them – it worked en mass – but they were undone by the better side in the end because that’s generally what Spain do. A solid defence will always cause problems to a side like Spain, particularly when their manager is as stubborn as Del Bosque is and won’t take tactical ownership of his side’s attacks. Nonetheless, Spain are a very good side with the potential to score goals and the mere fact that they have another gear to go to should be terrifying for their opponents, realistically. Don’t get me wrong – they have to hit it rather than living with a “potential” improvement – but I definitely believe that they will. Torres has failed to shine thus far but Villa has compensated thanks to an excellent tournament from the Barcelona striker. Xavi and Iniesta have ghosted between defences as ever, and the constant drifting of both Torres and Villa to the flanks and the supporting runs of Ramos have caused problems for defences to no end. It’s Spain’s movement and passing that makes them so dangerous and that side of their game is constantly improving in this World Cup. Their weak defence does concern me, admittedly – they look so susceptible each time a side attacks that it’s unreal – but they don’t allow sides to attack them more often than not so I’m cautiously overlooking that fact today. As much as I rate Spain, however, they’re not worth 2/5 – no side is worth those odds at this stage of the World Cup! I’m tempted to lay them on that basis alone!
First of all – please don’t underestimate Paraguay. Other Latino nations tend to have a lot of joy against Spain for some bizarre reason as Chile showed in their game against Spain earlier in this competition. Also bear in mind that the only side to have scored against Paraguay so far is Italy and that was from bad goalkeeping, although I would also add to that fact that Paraguay have played tactical sides throughout rather than flambuoyant sides. Nonetheless, Paraguay’s road to the World Cup saw them face a great number of sides in the vein of Spain so they do know what they’re up against today, make no mistake. Their defence is quite solid and their attack can be deadly on its day so again – please don’t underestimate the Paraguayans here!
Paraguay reached this stage after a tedious draw with Japan. Their tactics were excellent but their most notable aspect was their inability to take their chances, which they did have. It’s hard for me to say this – or even imagine saying it – but a nation which boasts both Santa Cruz and Cardozo as striking options looks weak in attack! I think they’re missing Cabanas more than they’re letting on here and who wouldn’t? He’s a great striker! However, Paraguay don’t score enough chances and although I don’t doubt that Spain will give them some on a plate today, I just can’t imagine them taking them because they’re not doing so at all!
I think we’re going to see a much closer game than most people are anticipating here. Remember – Paraguay are no mugs here. They’re a well-organised unit and have been for some years now. They’re capable of keeping the ball and keeping opponents out so don’t go mad with Spain on the handicap here. I envision a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Spain here but I’d be surprised to see it more than that. My main bet is for Spain to win to nil because Paraguay aren’t taking their chances well enough whereas Spain are taking at least some of their chances so backing that outcome at evens looks good value to me.
I can’t really single out individuals of particular importance or battles that intrigue me today because both sides are very complete units and work as a team. Spain’s Villa has been in good form and they’ll need his goal(s) to progress to the latter stages so I daresay he’ll be the most important player today. Del Bosque needs to use Llorente in this game if Paraguay are proving too resilient to break down so don’t be surprised if he gets a goal today – hell, he might even start. The enthusiasm of Valdez for Paraguay will be a pain for Spain to deal with as Ramos loves to go forwards so this could cause problems at Spain’s right-back area. Paraguay will have to go down the flanks because their strikers are good in the air and it’s also Spain’s weakest point. Casillas has looked a little shaky too so crosses may give Paraguay their chances. However, if Paraguay don’t go down the wings then this game is over for them, in my eyes, although they’ll always be at threat from set pieces.
Lastly, my hat goes off to the bookies here! I believe that’ve approached this game a lot more astutely than they’ve approached any other in this tournament with value difficult to locate. Still, I’ve devled deep to find what I deem as value and composed a list below of bets you may wish to consider taking today:
Draw/Spain at 14/5.
Over 4.5 cards at 6/5.
Game to be won by a single goal at 29/20.
A yellow card to occur before a goal, substitution, or half-time at 7/10.
Under 2.5 goals at 4/7.
However, my main bet of day remains Spain to win to nil at evens.
Verdict: Spain to win to nil at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Argentina vs Germany – Argentina to win at 5/4.
What a game this could turn out to be! A lot of people are fawning all over the Argentinians already as I warned pre-tournament that they would but I’m not convinced yet. They’ve done well against the sides they’ve faced, admittedly – you can only beat what is in front of you and Argentina have done that with gusto so respect must be given where it’s due. I’d also argue the case that Argentina has one of the deadliest attacks in the tournament – another good point for the South Americans. However, let’s not get too carried away here – they’ve not faced any side that has tested them properly defensively, which is fortunate because their defending has been absolutely terrible. They’re susceptible through the middle and on the wings at the back so they better hope that they outscore each opponent that they face or they’re going to have real problems as I expect them to concede in each and every game from here onwards. Argentina have really rode their luck thus far at the back with every side they’ve faced having troubled them, half of which have scored against them (despite being inferior sides), so don’t overestimate the flambuoyant but defensively-suicidal Argentinians today! I expect Argentina to score the first goal as Maradona’s tactics are virtually non-existant and he only knows how to attack so attack is logically all that Argentina can do here today.
Germany should pose an interesting threat to the Argentinians because they, too, cannot defend. It’s rare you can say that about a German side but any amount of pressure mortifies the usually calm and composed German side. I wonder if it’s because so few of them are actually German?! Anyway, Germany have had to focus on attack in this tournament, which has worked so far because of their excellent midfield. However, do bear in mind that Germany have arguably the weakest attack left in this tournament so I’m not fearing them too much, although the Argentinian defence will certainly make life easier for them. Ozil has been excellent in this tournament and will be a handful for Mascherano and co. today. Schweinsteiger will no doubt be motivated to hell and back to do well after Maradona’s pre-match taunts to the central midfielder so don’t expect an easy game for the Argentinians here – the Germans will battle them strongly in midfield and their adventurous full-backs will cause a lot of problems too. Germany were very efficient against England in their 4-1 win but luck was on their side and England definitely made it very easy for them to score. However, I really don’t rate the German attack so I think they’ll be quite comfortably outscored by their opponents today. I expect Germany to adopt a similar attacking style to Argentina because they have no other choice although it should be better tactically because Joachim Low, unlike Diego Maradona, knows what tactics are.
Therefore, we look set to have an interesting game in prospect. Argentina have better individuals; Germany have better tactical players and formations. Both sides attack quite well but Argentina take their chances better. I expect Germany to be a strong threat from set pieces due to their height advantage and I expect Demichelis to have a nightmare as he faces all the players that play against him in the Bundesliga and he’s already looked weak in this tournament. I envision Messi having the time of his life against the uncertain, lumbering giants in the German defence and ultimately winning the game for Argentina as a result. Either way, Argentina realistically should outscore the Germans today and thus my call is for them to win at 5/4.
Incidentally, the other bets that interest me for this game are:
Both teams to score at 18/25.
Argentina to score the first goal at 4/5.
Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Over 4.5 yellow cards at 6/5.
Verdict: Argentina to win at 5/4.
Belshina vs Neman Grodno – home win at 3/5.
I’m not entirely sure why these odds appeal to me, to be honest! Call it instinct or whatever you will but I really fancy Belshina to win this game despite knowing that they’re drastically over-achieving this season.
Why? Well, first and foremost, they’re rock-solid defensively. Only the very best of the Vysshaya Liga has beaten them comfortably this season and the rest have struggled so they’re worthy of your respect. They don’t score enough goals in general but have added the ability to steal a token goal to their game rather well of late so I’ll give them their chances today. They’ve won five out of eight home games already this season despite only scoring six times and conceding three times. Their goalscoring is where the risk element enters play here because their defence is solid enough to keep Neman Grodno out today all day long. I know some of you will look at Belshina’s recent form and think “one win in six? and you want the home win at 3/5?! crazy fucker!” and perhaps you’re right. What I would add to that statistic, however, is that they’ve faced the two best Belarusian sides in the country and the three sides that follow them in succession so don’t be too harsh on the newly-promoted side. They keep their heads unbelievably well and it’s that mental strength of theirs that gives me great confidence in them today as their 2-0 win at home to a tricky Torpedo Zhodino in the middle of this run indicated all too clearly as you’d expect a new Vysshaya Liga side to crumble after a run of poor form, even in a game like that. I like the belief Belshina have and their tactical intelligence so I think they’re worth backing today, even though the odds seem a little short.
Neman Grodno are capable of being much higher up the table but the reason that they’re not further up the table is because they don’t score enough goals. Indeed, only under-achieving Partizan Minsk have scored less goals in the Vysshaya Liga this season than Neman Grodno so it’s easy to see where their problems lie. They’re not a bad side, Neman Grodno – the table does mislead viewers there – but their continued run of poor form lowers morale and thus makes them sitting ducks. Neman have only won once in eight away games this season, losing four times and drawing three times so they’re certainly capable of losing today. No wins in six games, a run which includes four defeats, is also enough to see the morale of Neman lower further still. The only reason they didn’t lose at home to out-of-form Torpedo Zhodino last match was because Torpedo didn’t score, thus the game ended 0-0. Neman haven’t scored for four consecutive games and they’ve leaked ten goals during that time so they’ve got every reason to be afraid today.
This should be a boring and low-scoring game between two fairly well-matched teams but I can’t see anything other than a Belshina win here. They’re so strong mentally and they’ve been scoring a good number of goals of late by their standards so I’ve got faith in them here, particularly with opponents Neman Grodno conceding for fun and not scoring at all.
Verdict: Belshina to win at 3/5.
Espoo vs RoPS Rovaniemi – away win at evens.
Newly-promoted Espoo have been excellent following promotion from the Kakkonen this season and are currently second in the table as a result. They’ve not been flambuoyant with their football but then again, few Ykkonen sides are. What FC Espoo have been is efficient and it’s paid huge dividends as a result. They’ve won three out of four home games already in the Ykkonen and enter this game on the back of three consecutive wins so they’ll be a hard opponent to deal with today. Their defence is exceptional; matched only by their more illustrious opponents today RoPS Rovaniemi, in fact. What I would highlight as a massive problem for FC Espoo, however, is the fact that they’ve won five out of their six wins in the Ykkonen by a single goal. That tactic will work against most Ykkonen sides if deployed correctly but they’re facing a goalscoring machine in RoPS Rovaniemi today, a side that is not only twice as good as they are but one that always scores, which is the primary reason behind my doubting of the hosts today.
RoPS Rovaniemi burned a few of us in their last away game by surprisingly drawing 1-1 at newly-promoted OPS Oulu. However, don’t be put off by that result – these things happen sometimes and the game was a derby of sorts. It’s true that RoPS aren’t as strong on the road as they are at home so some caution is certainly recommended here. However, to deny that they’re anything but twice the side that FC Espoo are would be a complete lie because they certainly are. RoPS are a Veikkausliiga side playing in the Ykkonen, basically, so you have to favour them to prove it more often than not. You have to admire their mental strength too – they went and crushed one of the best away defences (PS Kemi Kings) 4-1 last match despite drawing at lowly OPS Oulu prior to that game and thus inflicting PS Kemi Kings’ first away defeat of the season by doing so and that takes great belief. The reason that RoPS are so dominant in this division and so weak in the Veikkausliiga is because the Veikkausliiga brought in rules to restrict foreigners that I don’t believe the Ykkonen implemented, which allows RoPS to field all of their excellent and very un-Finnish stars such as Chibwe, Mweetwa, Kunda, and Mwaba, all of which form a little Zambian contingent in northern Finland. They also have their fair share of Georgians so RoPS have an additional dimension to their side that other Ykkonen sides can’t and don’t have – foreign influence.
Ultimately, RoPS are too good for FC Espoo today – fact. They’ve only really let themselves down in one away game this season so I wouldn’t be too concerned with that outcome. FC Espoo have started well and they’ll have a good campaign if they continue with their efficient displays but they’re playing a side that is out of their league skill-wise and ability-wise today so you have to favour the away win for the better side at evens.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Barcelona Guayaquil, Nomme Kalju, IF Fuglafjordur, KPV Kokkola, Rosenborg BK, Levadia Tallinn.
Recommended bets:
Rosenborg BK, Nomme Kalju, and RoPS Rovaniemi at 2/1.
BATE Borisov, Argentina, and Belshina at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Argentina vs Germany (6) over 2.5 goals
Spain vs Paraguay (7) under 2.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Belshina vs Neman Grodno (7) 1-0
BATE Borisov vs Vitebsk (7) under 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica (8) under 2.5 goals
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Viljandi Tulevik vs Kuressaare (6) 1-0
Lootus vs Nomme Kalju (8) 0-2
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Levadia Tallinn (9) -1.75 handicap
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
IF Fuglafjordur vs AB Argir (8) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti (6) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV Kokkola vs HJK II (8)
PoPa Pori vs Jippo Joensuu (7) over 2.5 goals
Hameenlinna vs TPV Tampere (7) under 2.5 goals
Espoo vs RoPS Rovaniemi (7)
Latvian Virsliga:
Blazma Rezekne vs Jauniba (6) 2-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Rosenborg BK vs Sandefjord (8) -1.75 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!