Spain vs Poland
FreeWell, after one of those terrible type of nights in Iceland where the Urvalsdeild collapsed inwardly on itself en mass, we look to today’s games to seek some profit and there should be some to be had. My featured game today is the friendly between Spain and Poland being played in Murcia. It’s absolutely scorching out in Spain currently so the Poles are going to be up against it as the vast majority of them really aren’t used to this level of heat so Spain do have a further advantage here tonight.
However, this bet intrigues me because Spain have become somewhat…well, predictable, I daresay. I really fancied them to have a great tournament due to some outstanding football, but frankly, in the games they’ve played, they’ve looked somewhat average, which is unusual for them. They laboured to a 3-2 win against Saudi Arabia thanks to a late winner and then laboured past South Korea (1-0) thanks to yet another late goal. I have respect for the two Asian sides as they’re giants of their own continent and have some good players, particularly South Korea. However, Spain should not be struggling to the extent that they did against those sides so I fear for them. That said, I do still think they’ll win the World Cup purely because I don’t think anyone else is playing well either barring Netherlands, who can’t defend, but that’s beside the point. Spain have been level at half-time in both of those friendlies before eventually going on to win the game so my bet is not without substance here. Obviously an early goal will shatter it, barring a miracle, but I still feel the Spanish will find this game hard as they’ve not hit their “flow” yet and it may take them some time to break down their resilient opponents.
Zewlakow and Murawski are back for Poland, two key defensive additions to their side. Smuda may not have brought goals to the Polish national side but he has brought them solid defensive displays. They’ve not conceded against Serbia or Finland in their last two friendlies despite not playing overly well because they’re strong at the back. Poland haven’t scored in either game as they’re a tad lightweight in attack and star striker Robert Lewandowski’s desire to move to BV09 Borussia Dortmund in Germany is hampering his performances on the field as a particularly dismal display against Finland indicated all too clearly. However, his club Lech Poznan want more money and the Germans don’t want to pay more so we have a Mexican stand-off situation. The problem is that Poland can’t score goals without him playing well (cue Poland scoring four goals here!) and he isn’t playing well due to his problems off the field so I can’t see Poland scoring tonight in Murcia. However, as I mentioned above, they’re strong in defence and sides find it hard to break them down so I’m banking on them doing the same again although a superior Spanish team will surely break through at somepoint!
The heat will play a big factor tonight, in my opinion. Poland won’t be able to handle it and I expect it to hit them properly in the second-half to give Spain the breakthrough that they need. I don’t expect flowing football from the Spanish unless they score and early goal and in which case it could end up as a cricket scoreline. However, Spain are struggling to so I can see them drawing at half-time but eventually winning the game and odds of 11/4 are good enough to give it a whirl at, in my opinion. I also quite fancy under 2.5 goals because of the resilience of the visitors, particularly at 5/4, but I’ll stick with my initial call above!
Verdict: Draw at half-time, Spain to be winning at full-time at 11/4.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sweden U21 vs Montenegro U21 – home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/5.
I’m surprised by these odds. Sweden U21 have one of the top six U21 sides in Europe, in my opinion, whereas Montenegro U21 are still quite weak as their senior team saps all the good players before they’re blooded in the juniors due to the short life of Montenegro as a footballing nation. The only side to win at Sweden in their last four games at home was Italy U21, which is no shame. Sweden have beaten the -1.75 handicap in two out of their last three home wins so they’re certainly a capable side. Their win in Israel last week impressed me a lot as Israel’s U21 side are good, certainly good enough to avoid losing at home so it’s a wise choice not to underestimate the Swedes. Montenegro have started to impress me a little more in their past few games but they’ve all been at home and Podgorica is a tough place for any side to travel to irrespective of who you’re facing there so I wouldn’t read too much into their form. That said, they lost 2-0 at home to Sweden last year so they’re certainly capable of losing by the same or a bigger margin today.
I think the bookies have priced the straight win correctly. However, I think they’ve made a mess of the odds on the handicap – Sweden shouldn’t be longer than 5/6 to win this by two goals or more, in my opinion, and hopefully I’ll be proven right by our Swedish comrades today!
Verdict: Sweden U21 to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 6/5.
Trans Narva vs Levadia Tallinn – away win at evens.
Narva is such a tricky away game but I can’t ignore evens on Levadia to beat anyone in this division and Levadia do have a damn good record in Narva, winning five out of their last seven trips here. Admittedly, Levadia are a little lacking in firepower this year in comparison to previous years but they average scoring nearly two goals per away game at the moment and have won four out of seven away games so they’re certainly capable. They beat Trans Narva 3-0 at home earlier in the Meistriliiga this season and they are a better side – we just have to hope that the real Levadia turns up! Trans Narva, for all their ability, haven’t won enough games at home this season. They’ve won just three times in eight home games, which isn’t good enough for a club of their potential. The reason they’ve not won many games is because sides know how to stop them playing here with solid defending and Levadia are certainly capable of doing that today. The only sides Trans Narva have beaten at home this season are Flora Paide, Tulevik Viljandi, and Flora Tallinn. The first two sides are atrocious so Trans Narva’s only impressive home win of the season came on the opening day of the season. Since then, they’ve disappointed against good or even average sides so I fancy Levadia to do some damage today.
This is a risky call because although Trans Narva don’t win as much as they should at home this season, they’re not losing many either – just that one fixed game at home to Lootus, in fact – so do approach with caution. However, if Levadia play to their full ability then they’ll win here as they usually do. Whilst they’re at evens to win this game, they’ve got to be worth a flutter although I’d leave it if they drop, which I thoroughly expect them to.
Verdict: Levadia Tallinn to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Sweden U21, Spain, St.Patrick’s Athletic, Home United.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Sweden U21 vs Montenegro U21 (8) -1.75 handicap
Baltic League:
Flora Tallinn vs FK Ventspils (6) 0-1
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Levadia Tallinn (6) 1-2
International Friendlies:
Portugal vs Mozambique (6) under 3.5 goals (played in South Africa)
Spain vs Poland (8) under 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Sporting Fingal (6) 0-0
Galway United vs Bohemians (7) 1-2
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Bray Wanderers (8) -1.75 handicap
UCD vs Sligo Rovers (6) 1-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Woodlands Wellington (8) over 2.5 goals
Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!