Spain vs Portugal
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup second round derby between Spain and Portugal. The Iberian outfits lock horns to compete for the Quarter-Finals of the competition and I think it’s fair to say that we’re yet to see the best from both sides so this could be a very interesting game today.
Spain were my favourites to lift the World Cup pre-tournament and they still are, although my reasoning remains that I simply can’t find anyone better despite their failings. Spain’s displays in the group stage have been random at best. Their defeat against Switzerland was costly to many of us, and indeed surprising, although far too much has been made of it when you consider that Spain dominated the game and only a strong defensive display from a strong defensive side won them the game. Spain won’t meet another side like that in the tournament this year so I really wouldn’t read too much into that result. Their comfortable 2-0 win against Honduras should have been 6-0 but I put that down to the loss against Switzerland being on Spain’s mind. Spain then faced Chile in their final group game in a do-or-die scenario. Spain weren’t convincing but still won 2-1 despite being outplayed by their opponents and duly qualified from the group as a result.
So what have we learned about Spain? Not an awful lot, all things considered. They’ve not peaked by any stretch of the imagination yet, which is both worrying and comforting as they should be playing at least marginally better by now but it means that they do have a lot of ability in reserve to call upon if required. Torres has been disappointing in the tournament thus far and I can’t quite fathom as to whether he’s carrying his injury still, he wants to move on from Liverpool, or it could even be what Rooney had for England – burn-out. I don’t like Beckenbauer because he’s a cock, to be frank, but what he said about the English season being very long is absolutely correct and I think we may have another case of it here. However, the semi-decent David Villa is doing himself a lot of favours by compensation for Torres’ demise by scoring at will, which naturally aids the Spanish to no end. The magic of Xavi and Iniesta with their weaving styles in midfield is unplayable, as ever, so they’re again pivotal to the Spanish side. Spain have looked weaker at the back than I’d expected with the mere basics of defending having seemingly been overlooked with their defenders much preferring to play in an attacking role than a defensive one. Iker Casillas has come under criticism for some inane reason – anyone that criticises him is an idiot. He’s easily the best goalkeeper in the tournament by a mile and he’s already helped Spain out and I’m sure he will again with their unreliable defence leaving gaps more often than they should.
Where to begin with Portugal, however? I’ve seen a lot of people giving them a chance of winning this game because of long odds and it genuinely baffles me as to why you’d back Portugal to win this game. The only reason they’re playing Spain now is because they beat North Korea 7-0. It may be “ifs” and “buts” but I firmly believe that had Portugal only edged the win against North Korea as we all expected them to then Portugal would have had to attack Brazil a lot more in their last game and I think they’d have lost it and gone out. Anyway, that’s irrelevant now, although it’s worth noting that Portugal have only scored against North Korea in this tournament thus far, lending great support to my claims of the Portuguese being incredibly impotent. To Portugal’s credit, they’re working hard because they know they have to – they know they don’t have the ability to match the bigger sides anymore. Ronaldo is still carrying the side and if he or Meireles doesn’t feature in this game for whatever reason then I have real doubts over their ability to even keep the score down in this game, let alone avoid losing it.
Overall, Portugal were as disappointing as I’d expected them to be in the group stages but luck favoured them and you can’t argue with that. However, they look set to take a well-deserved beating in this game today because they just aren’t as good as their neighbours. Portugal boast a good record defensively over the past fifteen games or so but if you consider who they’ve played, it’s easy to see that statistics can easily be misleading. I’ve not been particularly impressed with any of the Portuguese players in this tournament – even Ronaldo looks jaded sometimes – so I don’t expect any miracles from them today.
With the above in mind, you really have to favour Spain to win this one. The odds on the Spanish win are surprisingly generous when you consider the obvious quality advantage that Spain boast here in every area of the field so I’d have to endorse a win for the favourites here. You can look at the Portuguese odds as good value or as astute work from the bookies and I’ll be honest with you – I’m with the bookies for the odds on the Portuguese win here because I simply cannot see it. Unless Ronaldo puts in the performance of his career – which he is capable of – then Portugal cannot win this game, in my opinion, but Spain almost certainly can with the wealth of talent at their disposal.
Other bets:
I’m partially tempted to back both sides to score because Spain’s defence can be woeful and odds of 11/10 are tempting. I’m also tempted by the -1.75 goal handicap for Spain too at 14/5. but I’m not over the moon with over 2.5 goals in this game as I feel Portugal might just do their 5-5-0 formation that they showed against Brazil and stifle Spain, who may be caught short with only Villa playing well in attack so we could see a surprisingly low-scoring encounter. I quite like Spain to be leading at half-time and full-time at 12/5 and Spain to score the first goal at 3/4.
Verdict: Spain to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Paraguay vs Japan – both sides to score at 11/10.
This should be a fascinating game for the freaks like me who love to see which side can edge this tactical battle. For the vast majority of you, I would say that this game will be rather dull and not the best viewing so perhaps it’s not the best idea to watch it, even if you do bet on it!
Both of these two sides are very strong tactically, which is unusual as one of the sides are South American. However, credit given where it’s due for Paraguay – the only goal they’ve conceded so far in this tournament was a goalkeeping error which gave Italy a goal. Aside from that, they’ve looked solid at the back; calm and composed. I think they’ll be exposed more when they face a better side because they play a high line but for now, their tactics are very useful as they press high up the field. However, they face a strong Japanese side that also love to dominate the middle of the park so I expect a real battle here today. The most key player on the field is Honda, not only because of his ability but because Caceres is suspended for Paraguay and he’s their best holding midfielder so I think Paraguay may struggle to contain him. However, Japan’s one failing is not scoring enough goals and that area is one that Paraguay are rarely short on and it’s easy to see why with their excellent strikers and supporting midfielders.
We should see a great battle between the two sides today and great battles all over the park too between combative players that have nothing to lose. Both sides will feel that they can win this one and both enter the game with good confidence level after convincing group stage performances so I think both sides are going to score here. I don’t envision Paraguay restricting Honda and I don’t see Japan being able to deal with Paraguay’s aerial threat at the back as that’s where Japan look weakest. With that in mind, taking both sides to score looks an interesting bet at 11/10, particularly as I can’t separate these two and back a winner!
One other bet that interests me is backing there to be a yellow card before there is a goal, substitution, or half-time. The odds of 3/5 aren’t as good as they could be but I expect a really slow start to this game as both are tactical sides and there should be a massive midfield battle so I do feel there will be a yellow card before any of the other options, particularly with Paraguay needing to handle Japan’s playmaker Honda without holding midfielder Caceres being available to them.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Santa Coloma vs Birkirkara – away win at evens, both sides to score at evens.
The Champions League is back after a short absence and I for one am happy to see it return, albeit with the preliminaries of the preliminaries!
Andorran hosts Santa Coloma tend to work their way into European competition each year due to consistent high placings and they boast a wide variety of nationalities in their squad, which has improved their overall level of football and innovation as a result. The improvement in their football isn’t vast but it is an obvious one if you see them. For instance, consider that the Andorran side, generally the punch-bag of European football (along with all other Andorran sides!), have scored in all three of their last three European home games over the past three years. They’ve compete in the Champions League and the Europa League and have faced superior sides each time – FBK Kaunas, Maccabi Tel-Aviv, and Basel respectively – and although they’ve ultimately lost to all of them, they’ve still scored. They’re nowhere near the level that they need to be at to have a chance of qualification yet, but my point stands that they’re an experienced side and they do usually get at least one token goal in their games so don’t be too dismissive of them – yet!
Visitors Birkirkara are one of the biggest names in Maltese football and enter this game knowing that they have the advantage of coming from a semi-decent football league. They’re equally as experienced as their hosts, if not moreso, and really should win games like this. I was incredibly impressed with their back-to-back displays against Croatia’s Slaven Koprivnica last year in which they lost 1-0 on aggregate because their defence was solid and they looked a real unit. I have some doubts over their goalscoring ability but Maltese football is on a gradual ascension and Birkirkara’s striking partnership of Galea and Comvalius have scored twenty-nine goals between them this season so Birkirkara certainly have the potential to do damage here today and I expect them to at least score against a shaky Andorran defence.
Again, if you’re a freak like me, this game is very interesting. Both sides have progressed in recent years so I expect a good game here. Both will fancy their chances of qualification but the visitors are unquestionably the better of the two sides, albeit not by a great deal. The odds on the away win look interesting at evens but the odds of both sides to score at evens looks very interesting with the hosts always getting a token goal at home but often conceding heavily – I think the bookies should be pricing that market a lot shorter, to be honest. Either way, approach with caution as neither side has played competitively for nearly two months but I do think that there’s value in this game today.
Verdict: Birkirkara to win at evens, both sides to score at evens.
Degerfors vs Osters – home win at 4/5.
I thoroughly expect these odds to nose-dive so I’d climb aboard whilst you can.
Degerfors have been outstanding following promotion last season to the Superettan and currently occupy third place as a result. They’ve notched up five wins in six home games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game and are playing some excellent football so hats off to them. They’ve been particularly good of late with four wins from their last five games so momentum favours the hosts today. They’ve won three consecutive home games, even beating the superior Hammarby along the way, so there can be no doubts over the potential of the hosts, although I do have my doubts regarding their uncertain defence. Their combative midfield and ability to score goals from all over the pitch benefits them immensely, however, so you have to feel that the hosts have enough in their favour to win the game today.
Visitors Osters are occupying the less favourable part of the Superettan table following promotion last season; the relegation zone. Osters haven’t performed particularly badly, in my opinion, but they simply concede too many goals, hence losing four out of their six away games already this season with an average of two goals conceded per game. They know how to find the net as they’ve proven with six goals scored in their last two away games alone! However, three defeats in their past five games with only fellow relegation-battlers Angelholm and Vasby United amongst the sides beaten, you have to fear for them today. There’s not as much between them and Degerfors as the table suggests but momentum is a powerful boost and that boost favours the hosts today and I do also as a result.
I can see a lot of goals in this one as both are scoring and conceding a lot at the moment. However, with such a good run of form under their belts, I have to back Degerfors here at decent odds because of their momentum and spirit that they’ve demonstrated in recent times, not to mention their good football. Therefore, we’ll hopefully see Osters’ unlucky run continue just a bit longer by witnessing them losing at Degerfors today.
Verdict: Degerfors to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Maag Tammeka Tartu, Nomme Kalju
Recommended bets:
Spain, Nomme Kalju, and Degerfors at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Paraguay vs Japan (7) 1-1
Spain vs Portugal (7) 2-1
UEFA European Champions League Qualifiers:
Santa Coloma vs Birkirkara (7) 1-2
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Kuressaare (8) under 2.5 goals
Viljandi Tulevik vs Nomme Kalju (8) 1-3
Lootus vs Flora Paide (4) 1-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Klaipeda (6) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Young Lions (5) 1-2
Swedish Superettan:
Degerfors vs Osters (8)
Enjoy your free betting tips!