Spain vs Switzerland
FreeWell, this World Cup is certainly being kind to us en mass, isn’t it? Hopefully you’ve all won a packet anyway!
Today’s featured game is the World Cup game between Spain and Switzerland. Favourites Spain only really lived up to their tag in their 6-0 demolition of Poland last match but I’m sure you’ll all agree that a victory like that certainly isn’t a bad platform to start with in the world’s biggest footballing tournament! Switzerland – well, they’re not really good enough to be here and I expect that to show today!
Spain – well, what can I say? For me, they’re the best football team in this competition by a mile. They play some scintillating football and the likes of Xavi, Iniesta, and Xabi Alonso can outplay any side in midfield due to their excellent pass-and-move football and their outstanding range too. Iniesta is a doubt for this game but frankly I’m not concerned – Spain have got some amazing midfielders in this team and they’re not facing an immovable object today so I’ll keep the faith in them. They’ve got a wide variety of attacking potential with Torres, Villa, and Llorente all bringing something new to the Spanish side, not to mention the likes of Silva popping up with goals when required. Sergio Ramos poses another very realistic threat from right-back if he starts due to his attacking nature so I’m expecting a sea of Spanish attacks to lap against a Swiss shore and ultimately do damage long-term. A few years ago, I’d have feared for the Spanish in this game because the Swiss are well-organised but Del Bosque has shown great intelligence by bringing Llorente to this World Cup, if only as a Plan B because it’s a variety that is needed sometimes. I’m expecting Spain to dominate possession here and ultimately make it count in convincing but fairly low-key fashion, possibly going under 2.5 goals unless they turn it on as they did against Poland. I doubt that scenario, however, given the low-key opening game for the vast majority of sides in this tournament thus far but I have strong faith in arguably the best Spanish side for many years.
Switzerland are a defensive side; no questions asked. They’re a poor side in front of goal and the news that star striker Alexander Frei is injured (again!) for this game means that it’s virtually guaranteed that they won’t score, even against an occasionally suspect Spanish defence. The likes of Streller and Derdiyok don’t have enough to do damage against the Spanish defence today, in my opinion, so their only chances should come from set pieces, if at all. Switzerland are also missing key engine in midfield Valon Behrami, another vital player for this game if they intend to frustrate the Spanish. Switzerland’s strength is their defence but their defence is going to be strongly tested today due to their lack of options in attack and lack of protection from midfield. Inler will have to do twice as much work as normal and I just don’t see the Swiss being able to cope with those losses! They had a slim chance before them but without those players, I don’t think they can even score here. Any side manager by Ottmar Hitzfeld is very much worthy of your respect, particularly defensively, so I’d refrain from backing more than a -1.75 handicap here, but the Swiss should offer little resistance in this game but they’re be tough to break through. With that in mind, I’d also steer clear of the Spain HT/FT bet – I’d probably favour the Draw/Spain Win bet more than Spain HT/FT, although that’s obviously risky too.
Ultimately, Spain are not only well-placed to win this game but Switzerland are well-placed to lose it. View this as a similar game to Holland vs Denmark in the sense that the resistance will be strong but the superior side should have enough in them to win by a couple of goals, particularly considering that the superior side in this instance is the mighty Spain. Senderos will be key for Switzerland today but I don’t think he can alter the course of the game enough to get anything from the game for Switzerland. With the above in mind, backing Spain with a -1.75 handicap at 5/6 is decent value as the odds could and probably should be shorter. I also like the odds of 8/11 on Spain to win to nil because the Swiss potency has been all but removed with Frei’s injury so the odds on that selection again should be shorter.
Verdict: Spain to win to nil at 8/11, Spain to beat the -1.75 handicap at 5/6.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
South Africa vs Uruguay – Uruguay to win at 7/5.
I’m going to have some opposition here and I do understand their concerns but I still really fancy this one. Why?
Well, South Africa have had their heroic result by holding Mexico to a 1-1 draw. I have nothing but respect for the determination with which they played and the pace with which they attacked. However, what I cannot escape from is the fact that South Africa are simply not good enough to compete with sides like this. South Africa’s goal against Mexico was marvellous but barring that, did they do anything against Mexico? Not really! I’m excluding Mphela’s chance in the dying seconds as Mexico were pushing for a winner at that point. In fact, South Africa were battered from pillar to post in the first-half by Mexico and only a wasteful Guille France can explain why Mexico hadn’t had that game won by half-time. Mexico were particularly suspect in defence against pace and South Africa exploited that well in the second-half but I don’t think their shock tactics will work against a strong Uruguay side so I don’t see them scoring today.
That now puts the pressure on Uruguay to score. If they do, I think they’ll win the game, and the odds are interesting enough for me to look at. I cannot consider for a second that Uruguay aren’t the superior side here because they are. They were so well-organised against France that they looked comfortable for a good portion of the game with the French carving out few good opportunities in the game, although this was also partially due to the French impotence. However, Uruguay were relatively assured for a South American side so I was sufficiently impressed with them. The dismissal of Lodeiro at the end of the game was unnecessary on his part and shows the atypical temperament issues of a South American side but their overall play is good. Uruguay were only exploited through the middle against France due to the missing Gargano, in my opinion, so I hope he’ll be back in the side for this one as Uruguay were excellent in defending down the flanks. Let’s not forget the lethal strikers that Uruguay have in Abreu, Forlan, and Suarez – all three are very capable in different ways of scoring goals and they’re three options that Mexico could not call upon in their game. I thoroughly expect the Uruguayans to punish an average South African defence due to their attacking prowess and that really should be enough to see them beat the hosts.
I don’t see many goals in this game but I do think Uruguay will be better prepared for the hosts than Mexico were. I think they’ll be better organised, more clinical, and ultimately more successful than their fellow hispanic nation. I admire South Africa’s never-say-die attitude but I don’t think they’ll threaten the goal enough to score so the win for Uruguay looks tempting at good odds.
Verdict: Uruguay to win at 7/5.
Honduras vs Chile – Chile to beat the -1.75 handicap at 17/10.
Honduras were shocking in their warm-up games against semi-decent sides; why will it change now? They offer so little in front of goal that it’s unreal so I don’t see them scoring today. The likes of Palacios are essential for Honduras to have any chance here but even so – they offer so little overall that I have zero faith in their ability to get something here, particularly with key playmaker Leon having been withdrawn from the tournament through injury already. Suazo is carrying an injury so Honduras have the daunting prospect of playing thirty-six year old striker Carlos Pavon up top on his own and that shouldn’t strike much fear into the usually assured Chilean defence.
Chile were sensational in the qualifiers for this tournament and have been very good in their friendlies prior to this tournament so I’ve got a good level of faith in their ability to progress in this tournament. I’ve no doubt they’ll win this game today because they’re better overall – they’ve got the pace of Sanchez, the ingenuity of Fernandez and/or Valdivia, and the skill of Tello – so they’re a very capable outfit. My sole concern is the fitness of Humberto Suazo for Chile (not to be confused with his namesake David Suazo playing for Honduras!) as he’s their main striker – without him they can score less than they should. If you’re concerned then I’d recommend waiting until the Chilean line-up is named for this game before placing your bet but if he plays then backing Chile to win by two goals or more at the above odds looks a very good bet indeed – I just hope opening day nerves don’t get to this relatively young Chilean side. Either way, the bet has to be worth a punt because Chile are some distance better than Honduras.
Verdict: Chile to beat the -1.75 handicap at 17/10.
El Nacional Quito vs Espoli Cayambe – home win at 5/6.
I think the bookies are guilty of over-pricing El Nacional here. They’re one of the better sides in Ecuador but their common problem is not scoring enough goals. However, when they score goals, they become a very dangerous side indeed and I don’t know about you guys but when a side scores seven times in two games, they look dangerous! The fact that El Nacional have only lost once in nine home games this season should lend weight to my claims above but their two wins during that time are what has earned them such a low Primera A placing and that is due to their impotent displays. However, as I mentioned above, El Nacional are back in the saddle with a draw and a win from their last two games, notching up seven goals along the way, so they’re in pole position to do damage tonight, just as they have for five out of their last six games against Espoli at home.
Visitors Espoli Cayambe have been in good form themselves of late with three wins in five games. However, I cannot overlook the fact that they’re simply not as good as their hosts. Their form has been inspired of late but that’s been more specifically at home – they’ve lost their last two away games consecutively, one even against lowly Manta, which now means that Espoli have doubled the number of away defeats they’ve had this season in their last two away games. Espoli didn’t score in either of those two games and have conceded in four out of their last five games so the statistics may be a tad flattering for them at the moment. They’re capable of putting up a fight but they don’t have a good record at El Nacional and they’re facing their hosts at a dangerous time so I think there’s a good chance that they’ll get caught out tonight.
Bluntly, I think El Nacional should be shorter than they are. I appreciate they’ve not had the best of seasons, particularly when it comes to winning at home, but they’re a good side nonetheless and they’ve got the potency to make it count tonight. Espoli are bad enough to concede in this game and lose it so there should be some value in the home win as I’d have personally priced them at 4/6 for the home win tonight.
Verdict: El Nacional Quito to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Chile, Spain, Viborg, EB/Streymur, Etoile.
Recommended bets:
Spain and Chile at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup:
Honduras vs Chile (8) -1.75 handicap
Spain vs Switzerland (9) -1.75 handicap
South Africa vs Uruguay (6) 0-1
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Braband (8) under 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
El Nacional Quito vs Espoli Cayambe (7) over 2.5 goals
Emelec Guayaquil vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-1
Independiente vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 0-0
Macara Ambato vs Universidad Catolica (4) 2-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Barcelona Guayaquil (5) 0-1
Deportivo Quito vs Manta (6) 1-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs NSI Runavik (5) 1-2
B36 Torshavn vs B71 Sandur (5) 1-1
IF Fuglafjordur vs B68 Toftir (7) under 2.5 goals
Suduroy vs EB/Streymur (8) 0-2
AB Argir vs HB Torshavn (7) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Etoile (8) 0-2
Swedish Superettan:
Brage vs Syrianska Sodertalje (5)
Jonkopings Sodra vs Degerfors (6)
Hammarby vs Ljungskile (7)
Vasby United vs Orgryte (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!