Sporting Braga vs Shakhtar Donetsk
FreeDespite there being a large number of games today, I’ve found very little value indeed so approach with caution today!
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Portugal between Sporting Braga and Shakhtar Donetsk. The Portuguese hosts had a baptism of fire in the UEFA Champions League Group Stage by taking a 6-0 battering at Arsenal two weeks ago and will need to significantly improve tonight or they could suffer similar consequences against their Ukrainian opponents.
Braga remain the good side that we saw last season in the Liga Sagres so it’d be foolish to ignore that. However, Braga’s European committments this year have changed them somewhat. Braga like to play possession football and win by narrow margins whilst barely conceding but this year they’ve gone a much more all-out attacking style that does suit the number of Brazilians in their side but really won’t help them in this competition. The Champions League is an unforgiving labyrinth of tactical battles and experience and with Braga at the shallow end of both key aspects, you have to fear for them in games like this. Admittedly they have blown Celtic away already this season, and even Sevilla CF, but I would argue that neither side were anywhere near their best at that time. Still, much respect goes to Braga for taking advantage of their opponents and making it count in clinical fashion and for that I am wary of betting against them. I’m also wary because Braga are a traditional home side – they always make their home games count. Despite their somewhat shaky start, they’ve still won three out of three at home in the Liga Sagres and they’ve won both Champions League Qualifiers at home too so this will be a tough game. However, I’ve become increasingly concerned at Braga’s sudden lack of ability in defence as defending is a massive part of their game and they’re really going to struggle without that aspect. They looked horribly out of their depth at Arsenal two weeks ago and whereas I admit that they found Arsenal in-form, their inexperience was still vastly obvious and with yet another experienced side facing them tonight, you have to fear for Braga’s immaculate home record.
Shakhtar Donetsk have prowled the European scene for many years now with wealthy chairman Rinat Akhmetov pumping money into the club at will and as a result, Shakhtar are very much a feared side nowadays. Shakhtar aren’t the average Ukrainian side with their flambuoyant football so don’t expect the usual rugged Ukrainian display away from home here. The loss of Fernandinho is admittedly a hefty blow for the Shakhtar team but it’s fortunately occurred in midfield where they’re strongest depth-wise anyway so I still have faith in them. The likes of Douglas, Jadson, Willian, and Alex Teixeira form a formidable midfield anyway and Lucrescu’s choice of attacker is quite inspired too with the wide variety of alternatives known as Eduardo, Luiz Adriano, and Marcelo Moreno to choose from. I worried for their defence pre-season but Lucrescu impressively re-signed legendary centre-back Chygrynskyi and stabilised their backline so they finally have a backbone again. Shakhtar’s domestic form this season has been impeccable as a result of the above with nine wins in eleven games and they’ve looked pretty damn good whilst doing it. The 1-0 win at home to Partizan Belgrade wasn’t mind-blowingly amazing but that was expected as Partizan fielded a defensive line-up in Donetsk and Shakhtar’s failing in attack is breaking through solid defences. However, these two sides are very similar and I expect an attacking game as a result and if they occurs then Shakhtar really should win this game.
I have to admit that I’m a little surprised by the odds on show. Braga are traditionally strong at home and Ukrainian sides don’t tend to travel well but this isn’t the same era anymore. Shakhtar aren’t the atypical Ukrainian side and the turf at Estadio AXA will suit them down to the ground. Shakhtar’s problem is their lack of muscle in midfield but I don’t envision that being a problem here as I expect a much more “total football” game between these two sides and if that does occur then I fully expect Shakhtar to win this game. Nonetheless, Shakhtar are away from home so I’ll cover it with draw no bet but I still think there’s value on the away side here on both the ability and experience front.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AS Roma vs CFR Cluj – both sides to score at evens.
The history between these two sides should be well-known as Cluj’s emergence onto the Champions League scene a few years ago came with a shock win at Roma. Both sides have significantly changed since then although ironically both sides have started their domestic campaigns badly with inconsistent displays, poor defending, and thus poor results. Cluj have already sacked their manager following some abysmal displays and puzzling decisions (i.e. why exclude Peralta from their Champions League team?) and there’s still a lot of work to do for the Romanians as a result. However, despite an amazing campaign under Ranieri last year, Roma have been terrible so far. They’ve missed some players, admittedly, but there’s no excuse for some of their displays. Roma were totally outplayed by an unconvincing Bayern Munich side in their opening Champions League game and duly lost the game whereas Cluj were clinical against Basel but not particularly impressive. I’m not a big fan of either side at the moment because of their bizarre displays but one thing that these bizarre styles should bring to the game is goals.
Cluj are sadly missing Kone and Bjelanovic in attack, which is a pretty hefty blow. Nonetheless, emerging Traore will look to run amok amidst uncertain Roman defenders and I think Cluj will have enough joy to score once. Roma might not be playing well currently but with Cluj missing Muresan in midfield, I think the hosts will have enough joy themselves to score in this game too, just as most sides in Romania have against Cluj already this season.
I wouldn’t bet on the 1×2 market here as anything could happen with the stagnant state of Italian football and the unpredictable level of Romanian football but I’ll be surprised if both sides don’t score here given the abysmal defensive displays that both sides have shown thus far.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Chelsea, Queens Park Rangers, Sillamae Kalev, Llanelli.
Recommended bets:
Chelsea, Queens Park Rangers, and Llanelli at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Spartak Moscow vs MSK Zilina (7) over 2.5 goals
Basel vs Bayern Munich (5) 1-2
AS Roma vs CFR Cluj (4) 1-1
Chelsea vs Olympique de Marseille (8) over 2.5 goals
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs AC Milan (6) 1-1
Sporting Braga vs Shakhtar Donetsk (5) 0-1
Auxerre vs Real Madrid (6) 0-1
Partizan Belgrade vs Arsenal (7) 1-2
Copa Sudamericana:
Defensor Sporting vs Independiente (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Brazilian Serie A:
Vasco da Gama vs Santos (5) 1-1
Goias vs Flamengo (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Norwich City vs Leicester City (5)
Cardiff City vs Crystal Palace (7)
Portsmouth vs Bristol City (6)
Scunthorpe United vs Barnsley (6)
Derby County vs Middlesbrough (6)
Burnley vs Hull City (5)
Coventry City vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United (5)
Leeds United vs Preston North End (7) over 2.5 goals
Watford vs Swansea City (5)
Reading vs Ipswich Town (4) draw no bet
Queens Park Rangers vs Millwall (8) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United (6)
Yeovil Town vs Southampton (5)
Charlton Athletic vs Milton Keynes Dons (5) both sides to score
Sheffield Wednesday vs Oldham Athletic (5)
Rochdale vs Huddersfield Town (6)
Leyton Orient vs Walsall (6)
Peterborough United vs Notts County (7) over 2.5 goals
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford (7) under 2.5 goals
Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere Rovers (7)
Bournemouth vs Exeter City (5)
Colchester United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Swindon Town vs Plymouth Argyle (6)
English League Two:
Cheltenham Town vs Oxford United (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Rotherham United vs Bradford City (7)
Morecambe vs Bury (6)
Northampton Town vs Chesterfield (6)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Barnet (6)
Torquay United vs Aldershot Town (4)
Hereford United vs Stevenage (4)
Gillingham vs Southend United (6)
Stockport County vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Lincoln City vs Burton Albion (4)
Port Vale vs Shrewsbury Town (7)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Kuressaare vs Sillamae Kalev (8) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar (5) 2-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs Kalmar (5) 1-1
Atvidaberg vs Trelleborg (6) 1-2
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Assyriska Sodertalje (7) over 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Llanelli (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!